BaOTB4L +5 Practice

[gman72]

I thought I'd start a thread for us to practice some shoes with BaOTB4L +5.

Here is my attempt at it. It has straight (ST) and zig zag (ZZ) runs in it to practice. image2014_05_15_10_46_530001.pdf

I started the shoe at play #3, that's just how I like to do it sometimes.

I was a little stumped at play #47 whether or not to continue the ZZ run. I did, but not sure if the correct play. Same situation at play #65 with continuing a ST run. Again, I did, but not sure if correct.

Take a look, play it out, and let's compare.

[joeystyle]

Excellent suggestion by GMAN! Lets separate the 3 different applications of Million Dollar Baccarat into their own individual threads. Also, we need to discuss the when to enter a shoe already in progress, the determining factors of entering, and the reasoning behind applying one of three methods. Also, you are sitting at a table at the beginning of a shoe, do we sit tight for first 10 or 15 decisions before we jump in? Some Casinos as Ellis and others have mentioned in the past, would like to deter a player from just sitting there not betting at all for long stretches.

[ECD]

I was a little stumped at play #47 whether or not to continue the ZZ run. I did, but not sure if the correct play. Same situation at play #65 with continuing a ST run. Again, I did, but not sure if correct.

Take a look, play it out, and let's compare.

Well played gman. I'm OK with your decision to stay OTR on those two plays. With S40, streaks were defined as at least a 4iar. Therefore, with OTBL it needs to be a 5iar. In both your ZZ and straight streak, they were the first ones to go to 5, so staying until the end of the streak seems like the right decision. In both cases the streak did not go to 6, so if you had encountered another streak, you would have gotten off at 5.

[no3bet]

I thought I'd start a thread for us to practice some shoes with BaOTB4L +5.

Here is my attempt at it. It has straight (ST) and zig zag (ZZ) runs in it to practice. [ATTACH]2948[/ATTACH]

I started the shoe at play #3, that's just how I like to do it sometimes.

I was a little stumped at play #47 whether or not to continue the ZZ run. I did, but not sure if the correct play. Same situation at play #65 with continuing a ST run. Again, I did, but not sure if correct.

Take a look, play it out, and let's compare.

Hey Gman,

You are not suppose to do that! You are going Way2Fast! Master Ellis is not going to like you!

LOL...LOL

AYS

[newbacplayer]

Well done, Gman. I've just started working on some old shoes with this method today trying to keep the secondary progressions straight for both straight runs and ZZs. Arrived at exactly the same question as you. Whether to continue on the run in situations like that. gb

[Guest]

I thought I'd start a thread for us to practice some shoes with BaOTB4L +5.

Here is my attempt at it. It has straight (ST) and zig zag (ZZ) runs in it to practice. [ATTACH]2948[/ATTACH]

I started the shoe at play #3, that's just how I like to do it sometimes.

I was a little stumped at play #47 whether or not to continue the ZZ run. I did, but not sure if the correct play. Same situation at play #65 with continuing a ST run. Again, I did, but not sure if correct.

Take a look, play it out, and let's compare.

Excellent job!

I see no reason to change min run lengths from 4 to 5. So play 65 I would have gone the other way based on prior ST runs. But it's an interesting question.

One question I came up with myself re run lengths: Suppose the prior history is two 5s and a 4. Should we go with majority rules? I'm thinking prior run lengths of 4 are a little scary. I'm a lot more comfortable with 5.

[Guest]

We already knew that BaS40 kills high 1's and 2s. Here we are watching BaOTB4L kill high 3s. That is 31.5 of 36 events covered. An avg of +5 is beginning to look pretty reasonable, isn't it? I'd be happy if we could merely break even on runs. Sure we might get a shoe now and then that has 4 or 5 of one event W/0 any of the event next door. But even then, we could get to +5 before a 3 bet comes up.

[Wendel]

Hi,

At Play 48, wouldn't the normal OTB4L play be a P1 ?

[gman72]

Hi,

At Play 48, wouldn't the normal OTB4L play be a P1 ?

Yes, Wendel that is correct, but since it was the first ZZ OTR win and it was at 5iar at that point, I continued the ZZ OTR with a B1 bet at play 48. All the prior ZZ runs had lost after a 4iar (plays 30 & 38). This is why I was confused on the correct course of action at this point, since the run had already gone longer than the prior runs when the secondary progression bet won at play 47, I just decided to stay OTR.

Play 65 I had the same thinking with the ST run that went to a 5iar, which was longer than the two prior 4iar ST runs, so I stayed OTR.

[Wendel]

Yes, Wendel that is correct, but since it was the first ZZ OTR win and it was at 5iar at that point, I continued the ZZ OTR with a B1 bet at play 48. All the prior ZZ runs had lost after a 4iar (plays 30 & 38). This is why I was confused on the correct course of action at this point, since the run had already gone longer than the prior runs when the secondary progression bet won at play 47, I just decided to stay OTR.

Play 65 I had the same thinking with the ST run that went to a 5iar, which was longer than the two prior 4iar ST runs, so I stayed OTR.

Personally, I prefer to do as you did. Having just gotten out of an ATR situation, I don't look forward to going back into it against a potentially stronger run.

[gman72]

Here's another shoe for practice. I set this one up so we can try out all three methods on the same page to compare.

image2014_05_16_13_09_360001.pdf

[gman72]

Here's another shoe for practice. I set this one up so we can try out all three methods on the same page to compare.

[ATTACH]2949[/ATTACH]

Ok, I was hoping someone would work out and post, but no takers so far, so here's how I worked the shoe out with the three +5 methods.

image2014_05_16_14_53_310001.pdf

Let me know if you see any mistakes. Also, what method would you have started with if you had walked up and saw the first 20 plays? As you can see from my sheet, BaS40 would have been best by the end of the shoe, but it started out slow, whereas BaOTB4L would have got you +5 before the end of the first column.

Still struggling with deciding what my default method will be.

[Golfgirl007]

Gman72 and/or Ellis, can you please play out this practice shoe play by play with an explination of each bet so I can use this to learn the new system from. I can't seem to teach it to myself entirely and am getting frustrated unable to keep up with the next practice shoe that gets posted when I cannot do the first one. I just need to see one play by play and I can learn it well and move forward. Grealty appreciate any help.

[no3bet]

Ok, I was hoping someone would work out and post, but no takers so far, so here's how I worked the shoe out with the three +5 methods.

[ATTACH]2950[/ATTACH]

Let me know if you see any mistakes. Also, what method would you have started with if you had walked up and saw the first 20 plays? As you can see from my sheet, BaS40 would have been best by the end of the shoe, but it started out slow, whereas BaOTB4L would have got you +5 before the end of the first column.

Still struggling with deciding what my default method will be.

Dear Gman72,

You are indeed a great contributor. Can you also play BaOTB4L for that shoe Ellis originally played with S40M1 (Post 23 under the Intro thread)? It will be a great discussion shoe for all of us.

B294221

B1132111211132

B211211412131

P1111 = 64 plays

Best Regards,

AYS

[ECD]

Let me know if you see any mistakes. Also, what method would you have started with if you had walked up and saw the first 20 plays? As you can see from my sheet, BaS40 would have been best by the end of the shoe, but it started out slow, whereas BaOTB4L would have got you +5 before the end of the first column.

Still struggling with deciding what my default method will be.

Aloha gman, thanks for a great post and example of the three methods. I see no mistakes -- I would play each just as you did. Great learning examples for anyone still trying to "picture" the flow of the game with the +5 methods.

If I saw these first 20 plays, there is no question I would play OTBL. Why? There are three 2s and one 3 in the first column, along with a couple single 1s. Perfect for OTBL. The 7iar wouldn't phase me -- it's not a huge problem for OTBL and in my experience, most perfect OTBL shoes still have 1-3 long streaks or ZZ. With a sound approach to streaks now (million +5), bring it on! Clean up on the 2s and 3s and neutralize or even win on the streaks!!

[gman72]

Gman72 and/or Ellis, can you please play out this practice shoe play by play with an explination of each bet so I can use this to learn the new system from. I can't seem to teach it to myself entirely and am getting frustrated unable to keep up with the next practice shoe that gets posted when I cannot do the first one. I just need to see one play by play and I can learn it well and move forward. Grealty appreciate any help.

Ok, this is a play by play of how a played the last shoe I posted with BaOTB4L +5.

BaOTB4L +5 120123 progression

PP=primary progression

SS=secondary progression

OTR=on the run

ATR=against the run

ST=straight run

ZZ=zig zag run

Play by Play:

Play#:

3-9 started at play three just out of habit, starting with PP and went through play 9 with PP.

10 Lost the PP at play 9 so now a 0 SP bet OTR (ST) here.

11-13 0 SP bet wins at play 11 so stay OTR till a loss.

14-25 Back to PP betting here after the OTR loss at play 13.

26-28 Lost the PP at play 25 so now a 0 SP bet OTR (ZZ) at play 26 and continue the ZZ run.

29-38 Back to PP betting here after the OTR loss at play 28.

39 Lost the PP at play 38 so now a 1 SP bet ATR (ST) here since the 0 SP bet at play 10 won.

40-41 The ATR bet at play 39 loses so go back OTR (ST) and bet till hit 7iar, which was the last length of the ST run back at plays 6-12.

42-44 Back to PP betting. Got off the run at play 42 after 7iar at play 41 and was lucky the run only went to 7iar.

45 Lost the PP at play 44 so now a 1 SP bet ATR (ZZ) here after the 0 SP bet (ZZ) won at play 26.

46-56 ATR bet at play 45 won, so back to PP betting.

57 Lose the PP at play 56 so now continue the SP betting with a 2 SP bet ATR (ST) since the 1 SP ATR (ST) lost at play 39.

58-59 Won the ATR (ST) bet at play 57, so back to PP betting.

60 Lost the PP bet at play 59 so a 0 SP bet here OTR (ZZ). Did not continue OTR here, may have been a mistake not sure. The last ZZ run was a 4iar at plays 41-44. Started the SP ZZ over after the win at play 45.

61-71 Back to PP betting and finished the shoe out with no more SP bets.

[Guest]

Ok, this is a play by play of how a played the last shoe I posted with BaOTB4L +5.

BaOTB4L +5 120123 progression

PP=primary progression

SS=secondary progression

OTR=on the run

ATR=against the run

ST=straight run

ZZ=zig zag run

Play by Play:

Play#:

3-9 started at play three just out of habit, starting with PP and went through play 9 with PP.

10 Lost the PP at play 9 so now a 0 SP bet OTR (ST) here.

11-13 0 SP bet wins at play 11 so stay OTR till a loss.

14-25 Back to PP betting here after the OTR loss at play 13.

26-28 Lost the PP at play 25 so now a 0 SP bet OTR (ZZ) at play 26 and continue the ZZ run.

29-38 Back to PP betting here after the OTR loss at play 28.

39 Lost the PP at play 38 so now a 1 SP bet ATR (ST) here since the 0 SP bet at play 10 won.

40-41 The ATR bet at play 39 loses so go back OTR (ST) and bet till hit 7iar, which was the last length of the ST run back at plays 6-12.

42-44 Back to PP betting. Got off the run at play 42 after 7iar at play 41 and was lucky the run only went to 7iar.

45 Lost the PP at play 44 so now a 1 SP bet ATR (ZZ) here after the 0 SP bet (ZZ) won at play 26.

46-56 ATR bet at play 45 won, so back to PP betting.

57 Lose the PP at play 56 so now continue the SP betting with a 2 SP bet ATR (ST) since the 1 SP ATR (ST) lost at play 39.

58-59 Won the ATR (ST) bet at play 57, so back to PP betting.

60 Lost the PP bet at play 59 so a 0 SP bet here OTR (ZZ). Did not continue OTR here, may have been a mistake not sure. The last ZZ run was a 4iar at plays 41-44. Started the SP ZZ over after the win at play 45.

61-71 Back to PP betting and finished the shoe out with no more SP bets.

Wow! Extremely good posts Gman and way2fast. Maybe I can take time off to write a sales letter for our front page. Guys are PMing me about extremely high shoe win rates. I'm going to need some testimonials for the front page. Nobody has even posted a losing shoe yet. Everybody that plays Baccarat should be playing this way. It totally jives with the game the casinos are now presenting with preshuffled cards. But it beats regular cards too. Looking at it from the standpoint of +5 avg,, we're in! So. looking at it from the standpoint of a million dollars: We're in!

[Guest]

After a lot of reflection, I'm not so sure this morning about my post yesterday re 5 or mores playing BaOTB4L.

Looking at the big picture from a mathematically philosophical perspective, here's my thoughts:

BaS40M1, We automatically beat ZZ runs with our primary prog so the whole idea is to get on ST runs early where we can do the most damage.

BaS40M1 is about 2s. It's primary prog has 1's covered which are half of all events. But the secondary prog is a virtually unbeatable plan for 2s.

BaS40 is about 3s. The primary prog beats 1's and 2s automatically which are 3/4 of all events

But BaOTB4L is about 4s vs 5+ both ST and ZZ. The primary prog already beats 2s, 3s and single 1's. The secondary prog sorts out 4s vs 5+. We have everything covered up to and including 5s. See that?

Now think about this: 6+s avg ONE ST and/or ONE ZZ per shoe. Are they even worth worrying about? We KNOW that our secondary prog, mostly because of it's 0 bet, is far better than 50/50. So, OK, lets say we win our secondary prog on the 5th circle of a ST or ZZ run. The next bet is only 50/50 regardless of whether we bet OTR or ATR. Why even bet at all whether a 5 stays 5 or goes to 6? Hell, from a +5 perspective we already won the shoe when we hit on the 5. We did that with bets that are better than 50/50. Mission accomplished! Why would we now make a 50/50 bet? Why bet at all. Simply wait for the run to end. Then start over if you really must.

Look at the BaOTB4L shoes posted. Look at the score on the play where the secondary prog hit. Are we not always better than +5 at that point?

[Guest]

BaOTB4L explined:

Golfgirl, hmm, lost again. I'm absolutely sure others are in your boat but afraid to say so. What the hell are they doing? That's your question, right?

BaOTB4L is the hardest because you are dealing with both ST and ZZ runs separately. So you might as well learn that first because then the other two are a snap.

So first, to pick BaOTB4L you're wanting to see high 2s or high 2s and 3s. Single 1's are also good.

Your primary prog is 1,2 and bet OTB4L. (that an opposite will follow a repeat and a repeat will follow an opposie - same as NOR OTB4L.)

Do you know the OTB4L routine? If not, that comes first. Just practice your primary 1,2 bet routine until you can match the 1,2 primary prog to the shoes posted W/O having to think about it or having to go back and see what happened the time before last. That's the slow way.

Just bet 1,2 that an opposite will follow a repeat and a repeat will follow an opposite. That's the pro way.

Ok, you will soon see that you can only lose your 1,2 primary prog to a 4iar (in a row) either ST or ZZ (counted correctly).

OK, if you do that right, whenever you lose your 1,2 you are looking at a 4iar either straight or ZZ.

Bet a red 0 OTR whether it's on a ZZ run or a ST run.

That is the first bet of your secondary prog of 0123 that ONLY gets bet in SINGLE bets under 4iars.

In between 4 iars you are right back to your primary 1,2s. So you will have very few red bets on your card because they will only occur after 4 iars ST or ZZ. (avg of 9 per shoe counting both ST 4s and ZZ 4s.)

Whenever you bet a 0 win or lose, that is the first bet of your secondary 0123 prog that only has entries under 4 iars.

OK now the only question is do you bet your 123 that a 4 will go to 5 (repeat) (OTR) or that the 4 will stay 4 (opposite) (ATR) It is important that you get it right because that is what creates your advantage.

When a 0 bet wins you bet the remainder of its prog 123 ATR (that 4s will stay 4)

When a 0 bet loses you bet the remainder of its prog OTR (that the 4 will go to 5).

So, the only way you can lose your 123 is if the shoe produces 4 or 5 5s W/O any 4s or 4 or 5 4s W/O any 5s. And that is close to impossible.

The 0 bet means the same thing in all 3 Ba systems but with Ba S40M1 (10123) Your seconary prog is bet after 2s instead of 4s and with BaS40, after 3s. (120123) on opposites.

Read this post again as you are practicing and as you study the posted shoes and I'm sure you'll get it.

Then you'll understand my above question as to should we bet OTR after 5s or just forget it.

[ztomsk]

BaS40M1, We automatically beat ZZ runs with our primary prog so the whole idea is to get on ST runs early where we can do the most damage.

BaS40M1 is about 2s. It's primary prog has 1's covered which are half of all events. But the secondary prog is a virtually unbeatable plan for 2s.

Hey Ellis just curious on your thoughts about a shoe with low 1 liners that's not super streaky but just streaky enough where it causes OTB some problems. Where there are a lot of intermixed 3,4 and 5 iars. I seen one the other day and thought to myself "alternating streaks - ok S40M1". But there was no chop and the secondary prog betting a 2 will stay 2 seemed questionable. Also when to bet with or against the run was questionable (majority or prior length).

My casino is preshuffled but I guess this streak bias just crept in. Would you play NOR or just flat bet repeats in this situation?

I just went to a different table and played OTB and won +4 lol. But I hate seeing a strong streak bias shoe go by... those are big money makers.

[Golfgirl007]

Gman72 and Ellis,big kiss!!Thanx so much thanks to both of you for all your help. I will spend the weekend studying both of your posts to me. I shall reach back out with some questions after I study it thoroughly. Hopefuly with no questions at all! I see the logic in getting OFF a run after +5 and waiting for it to pass.

Ellis, as an aside; my casino in Brantford, Ontario, Canada purchases it's cards from a company in China. 2 new pre shuffled shoes of 8 decks arrive each morning at 9am to the baccarat tables. Those 2 shoes alternate over a 24 hour period thru a shuffle machine at the table and are then destroyed at the end of a 24 hour cycle. The dealer told me that she notices that if a shoe starts out choppy it tends to remain choppy for the better part of the 24 hour cycle. Any thoughts from you? Should I try to be at the casino for the card change at 9am and simply watch both decks be played out and shuffled once and watch them play out for a second time and see if they remain similar?? Would that be an advantage for me?

[Guest]

Hmm, Ontario. That's probably why your check is taking so long, unless you actually sent it to Arizona AZ instead of Arkansas AR, like you said. But the zip code should get it here anyway. If not, I'll let you know and you can cancel and resend.

But, that's good info on the casino. Of course dealers are told how to answer such questions so it's not Bible. More like gossip.

Can you touch the cards or no or do they have both touch and no touch?

Touch would be new cards every shoe.

But what the dealer said COULD be true. It depends on how long the shuffle machine timers are set for:

A long shuffle is chop and a short shuffle is streak.

But see, they caught us timing the machines so they redesigned them to run silent with no pilot light or window. Smart bastards.

So, I used to sit at first base - first seat at the dealers left hand. That's a good place to cheat from. I'll teach you how later. But I used to rest my foot against the machine pedestal where the vibration told me how long the machine was running. Hand 15 or so in the next shoe was a short shuffle - they are going for streak. Hand 50 or so was a long shuffle - they are going for chop.

Getting there early might help a bit but not much because there is no card prep. The fact that they use the same cards for 24 hours means it doesn't matter how the cards started out.

The red shoe and the blue shoe might be entirely different so track both independently but eventually they settle down to chop neutral or streak.

To know what the other color shoe did before you got there, don't be bashful, ask to see a players score card. Fortunately, unlike BJ, Bac is friendly.

The bottom line is go by what you see when you get there.

Watch out when all the players are winning. That is the signal for the casino to change the machine timer! That is done from upstairs.

[Guest]

Hey Ellis just curious on your thoughts about a shoe with low 1 liners that's not super streaky but just streaky enough where it causes OTB some problems. Where there are a lot of intermixed 3,4 and 5 iars. I seen one the other day and thought to myself "alternating streaks - ok S40M1". But there was no chop and the secondary prog betting a 2 will stay 2 seemed questionable. Also when to bet with or against the run was questionable (majority or prior length).

My casino is preshuffled but I guess this streak bias just crept in. Would you play NOR or just flat bet repeats in this situation?

I just went to a different table and played OTB and won +4 lol. But I hate seeing a strong streak bias shoe go by... those are big money makers.

Yeah, soo true! So remember, if you are seeing runs, play the darn things.

Sometimes all the casino's plan goes awry and you get ST runs following ST. Right, just bet repeats!

[newbacplayer]

Here is a shoe that I worked on in each of the three +5 methods. I created a column for primary progression and a column for secondary progression to clarify where the bets came from. I followed Ellis' recommendation in terms of not betting on the bet after the secondary progression in the OTB4L. This is clearly a shoe where OTB4L didn't do so well, unless I made a terrible mistake along the way. Anyway, it is a chance to compare the three +5 methods on the same shoe.

BaOTB4L +5.pdf

BaSB40 +5.pdf

BaSB40M1 +5.pdf

[no3bet]

Ok, I was hoping someone would work out and post, but no takers so far, so here's how I worked the shoe out with the three +5 methods.

[ATTACH]2950[/ATTACH]

Let me know if you see any mistakes. Also, what method would you have started with if you had walked up and saw the first 20 plays? As you can see from my sheet, BaS40 would have been best by the end of the shoe, but it started out slow, whereas BaOTB4L would have got you +5 before the end of the first column.

Still struggling with deciding what my default method will be.

Hello Gman72,

In your BaOTB4L plays, hand 61 continues ZZ OTR and betted Opposite. Shouldn’t hand 61 continues ZZ and bet Opposite as well or are you just following the Run length of 6 ZZ’s per hand 22 to 27?

AYS