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Hi Ellis,

Had a few questions about MDB+

Do we not even need to keep a SAP count and just wait for the second 2, second 3 or second 4+ to occur to begin betting?

You said they don't have to be consecutive so if we had hands come out for example P2,1,4,3,2 we would then start to bet the next 2 will go to a 3?

Also I understand betting that there won't be five 2's without a 3, but when you have two 3's how do you decide there won't be five 3's without a 2 or a 4+? And the same goes for 4+. When you have two 4+'s, do you bet for a 2 or a 3 to come up?

Could you please post a few more sample shoes with play by plays for MDB+. Would really help. Thanks.

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Hi ellis,

yes I hope you will post some more examples of mdb+ as soon as possible as I am in Vegas now and would like to understand it better and use it while I'm here.

Thanks,

jim

I'd love for you to play it Jim.

Keith murdered Hollywood with it Sunday against REGULAR cards..

We THINK your best game in Vegas is the touch games because they have the closest to random cards. This means you need a table with other players because you won't be betting every hand.

Here are the preliminary rules:

Your progression is 123 but you will soon see you seldom get to the 3 bet.

To start the shoe you wait for any event except 1's to occur the second time.

Then you bet a 123 that that same event won't happen 3 more times W/O its lesser event occuring.

Once you've started the shoe you bet your prog every time an event occurs a second time.

Yes, this means it is possible to have 2 progs going at the same time.

For instance lets say the the shoe produces it's second confirmed 2.

You bet that the resulting 1 iar stays 1 (that 1's stay 1) so that the only way you can lose is if the shoe produces 5 2+s W/O a 1. (choppy shoes)

You can also bet your 123 that the shoe can't produce 5 2s W/O a 3 (that 2s go to 3) (streaky shoes)

Or you could bet both esp if the shoe is favoring neutral.

Now, let's say the shoe produces its second confirmed 3.

Now you bet 123 the shoe can't produce 5 3s W/O a 2 (you bet 2s stay 2)

Or the shoe produces 2 4+s:

You bet 3s stay 3 so the only way you can lose is if the shoe produces 5 4+s W/O a 3.

So, any time the shoe produces the same event again, either consecutive or close together you bet your 123 that the shoe can't produce 3 more of that same event W/O its lesser event occurrintg once.

2 2s you bet 1's stay 1

2 3+ you bet 2s stay 2

2 4+ you bet 3s stay 3

But you can also bet there won't be 5 2s W/O a 3+ (that 2s go to 3)

You'll soon see that you usually don't get to start until late in the first col. So you get a pretty long look at the shoe before you start.

Any time you win a bet that prog is over.

You can use -6 as a stop loss and +5 as a stop win.

Be careful not to start a prog against 3+s or 4+s too late in the shoe to finish the prog.

+5 is good but our real objective is to win every shoe even if we can't make it to +5.

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Hi Ellis,

Had a few questions about MDB+

Do we not even need to keep a SAP count and just wait for the second 2, second 3 or second 4+ to occur to begin betting?

You said they don't have to be consecutive so if we had hands come out for example P2,1,4,3,2 we would then start to bet the next 2 will go to a 3?

Also I understand betting that there won't be five 2's without a 3, but when you have two 3's how do you decide there won't be five 3's without a 2 or a 4+? And the same goes for 4+. When you have two 4+'s, do you bet for a 2 or a 3 to come up?

Could you please post a few more sample shoes with play by plays for MDB+. Would really help. Thanks.

Right Bobby, you don't need SAP. OR might help a little but its not really necessary either. Your sample is a particularly difficut one because you already had 1's and 3s and 4s intervening between the two 2s. However, I'm sure we can beat it easy:

First, you would need to know the next play to confirm the 2nd 2.

So if the next play is P that gives you back to back 3s so you would bet that 2s stay 2.

But I don't think that is what you ment. I'm thinking you meant the next play to be B giving you 2 confirmed 2's. Right?

OK we could bet the next 2 goes 3. But that just happened twice so I don't think betting it will happen a third time is our best bet. It's a good bet but I think our best bet is to bet 1's stay 1. So our bet at play 14 is 1 on P. (that the 1 stays 1)

Here's why:

The odds of a 1 staying 1 are 50/50.

Half of all events are 1's.

We haven't had a confirmed 1 yet in 10 plays so a 1 is decidedly due.

In order for us to lose our 123 prog the shoe would need about 20 plays W/O a 1 - very highly unlikely.

I'm not 100% sure yet but I think we are always better off betting on the lesser event.

For instance:

2 confirmed 2s - we bet on 1's (that 1's stay 1)

2 confirmed 3s - we bet on 2s (that 2s stay 2)

2 confirmed 4+ we bet on 3s (that 3s stay 3)

That way we are always betting on what is MOST likely to happen in a random shoe and we get 3 chances.

Here is the math I'm looking at:

Lets say we get a second confirmed 2.

We can either bet that 2s go to 3 or that 1's stay 1.

BUT, 1's are 4 times more likely than 3s AND we get 3 chances.

Does everybody see that?

We have to put our RANDOM hat on - NOT our NOR hat.

Remember RANDOM is a bias too - Perhaps the easiest bias to beat!

The lesser event is always 4 times more likely than the greater event in random cards AND we get 3 chances.

Therefore I think we are best off to ALWAYS bet on the lesser event.

Does anyone see it differently???

That way we don't need SAP or O/R.

That keeps it simple and mechanical.

A few shoes and you won't even need a score card.

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Would it be possible for Keith or someone that is currently playing MDB+ to post several shoes with a play by play description of what they are betting on (2 IAR, 3 IAR or 4 IAR) and when they are staying OTR and why they are betting in this manner?????? This appears to be very promising, however need additional information with a shoe and description of there play by play.

I'd love for you to play it Jim.

Keith murdered Hollywood with it Sunday against REGULAR cards..

We THINK your best game in Vegas is the touch games because they have the closest to random cards. This means you need a table with other players because you won't be betting every hand.

Here are the preliminary rules:

Your progression is 123 but you will soon see you seldom get to the 3 bet.

To start the shoe you wait for any event except 1's to occur the second time.

Then you bet a 123 that that same event won't happen 3 more times W/O its lesser event occuring.

Once you've started the shoe you bet your prog every time an event occurs a second time.

Yes, this means it is possible to have 2 progs going at the same time.

For instance lets say the the shoe produces it's second confirmed 2.

You bet that the resulting 1 iar stays 1 (that 1's stay 1) so that the only way you can lose is if the shoe produces 5 2+s W/O a 1. (choppy shoes)

You can also bet your 123 that the shoe can't produce 5 2s W/O a 3 (that 2s go to 3) (streaky shoes)

Or you could bet both esp if the shoe is favoring neutral.

Now, let's say the shoe produces its second confirmed 3.

Now you bet 123 the shoe can't produce 5 3s W/O a 2 (you bet 2s stay 2)

Or the shoe produces 2 4+s:

You bet 3s stay 3 so the only way you can lose is if the shoe produces 5 4+s W/O a 3.

So, any time the shoe produces the same event again, either consecutive or close together you bet your 123 that the shoe can't produce 3 more of that same event W/O its lesser event occurrintg once.

2 2s you bet 1's stay 1

2 3+ you bet 2s stay 2

2 4+ you bet 3s stay 3

But you can also bet there won't be 5 2s W/O a 3+ (that 2s go to 3)

You'll soon see that you usually don't get to start until late in the first col. So you get a pretty long look at the shoe before you start.

Any time you win a bet that prog is over.

You can use -6 as a stop loss and +5 as a stop win.

Be careful not to start a prog against 3+s or 4+s too late in the shoe to finish the prog.

+5 is good but our real objective is to win every shoe even if we can't make it to +5.

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In post # 12 where you played two versions of a shoe, I'm confused in you play of MDB+ for the following reason:

Play 11-13 is a 3iar

Play 15-16 is a 2iar

Play 17-20 is a 4iar

How do you begin betting saying that you had your second confirmed 3iar at play 19? I guess that would be like saying I had a confirmed 2iar after play 18. Since when do we confirm anything until after the run? I could understand if we confirmed a 4iar before the end of a run once it has gone at least 4iar but not in any other circumstances.

Can anyone answer, Ellis?

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The lesser event is always 4 times more likely than the greater event in random cards AND we get 3 chances.

Therefore I think we are best off to ALWAYS bet on the lesser event.

Does anyone see it differently???

.

Maybe a different view. I do agree that the frequency of betting opportunities on the lesser side should be greater (4x more frequent as you say). However, using the example of playing 2s, once the next 2iar happens, you are looking again at a 50/50 situation for the next play. By betting a progression that there will be a 3 before 5 2s, it seems we might be tilting that 50/50 proposition more in our favor. I really don't see where it is different from playing the lesser number, other than the opportunity to start the progression on the lesser number will surely occur first. I'm thinking we should play both sides of 3s and 4s, each with a separate 123 progression. Honestly, I'm still thinking about whether I want to play the lesser side of 2s unless the OR is a big positive number. What do you think?

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Going off my practice so far,I like a 2,4,6, prog for the 3s and 4s but I have been using a 1,2,3 prog for 2s to go to 3s bet due to the risk of 2s appearing more frequently also I was considering a higher prog for the 4+s going to 2s for the same reason.

Maybe a different view. I do agree that the frequency of betting opportunities on the lesser side should be greater (4x more frequent as you say). However, using the example of playing 2s, once the next 2iar happens, you are looking again at a 50/50 situation for the next play. By betting a progression that there will be a 3 before 5 2s, it seems we might be tilting that 50/50 proposition more in our favor. I really don't see where it is different from playing the lesser number, other than the opportunity to start the progression on the lesser number will surely occur first. I'm thinking we should play both sides of 3s and 4s, each with a separate 123 progression. Honestly, I'm still thinking about whether I want to play the lesser side of 2s unless the OR is a big positive number. What do you think?
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Ellis, for those of us that still play regular card, what's your recommendation here within MBD area? I've thought about reverse the secondary prog but I don't know..?

I haven't forgotten you Fred. Yes, I've thought about reversing the secondary prog for regular cards. Probably a good idea. With regular cards your hit rate on your primaryb prog is much better. The SAP count tends to be much more lopsided. (Greater disparity between the high and low counts).

Ideally we should go by SAP disparity. The greater the disparity the more it favors reversing the secondary prog. Putting precise numbers on it would be next to impossible to follow however. It is probably best to simply reverse the meaning of the 0 bet for regular cards.

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Thanks for the reply Ellis. Would appreciate seeing some MDB+ shoes with play by plays to visualize it better. How about the 4 shoes gman just posted on the "Vegas Shoes 6/20 to 6/25" thread? Thanks.

Well, except that my Math was misleading. Yes, 1's occur 4 times more often than 3s but only twice as often as 3+ which is the correct issue. Note way2fast's comments on this issue.

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In post # 12 where you played two versions of a shoe, I'm confused in you play of MDB+ for the following reason:

Play 11-13 is a 3iar

Play 15-16 is a 2iar

Play 17-20 is a 4iar

How do you begin betting saying that you had your second confirmed 3iar at play 19? I guess that would be like saying I had a confirmed 2iar after play 18. Since when do we confirm anything until after the run? I could understand if we confirmed a 4iar before the end of a run once it has gone at least 4iar but not in any other circumstances.

Can anyone answer, Ellis?

Sorry Steve, I answered you before but my post seems to have vanished. Anyway, forget that sample. It was a first attempt and I screwed it up. But we seem to now be zeroing in on the correct rules even if we aren't quite there yet.

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Going off my practice so far,I like a 2,4,6, prog for the 3s and 4s but I have been using a 1,2,3 prog for 2s to go to 3s bet due to the risk of 2s appearing more frequently also I was considering a higher prog for the 4+s going to 2s for the same reason.

There may be some merit in what you say LOU. I'm trying to determine if going with the lesser event has any better odds than going with the greater event. If not, maybe we should be going with both like way2fast is saying.

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I haven't forgotten you Fred. Yes, I've thought about reversing the secondary prog for regular cards. Probably a good idea. With regular cards your hit rate on your primaryb prog is much better. The SAP count tends to be much more lopsided. (Greater disparity between the high and low counts).

Ideally we should go by SAP disparity. The greater the disparity the more it favors reversing the secondary prog. Putting precise numbers on it would be next to impossible to follow however. It is probably best to simply reverse the meaning of the 0 bet for regular cards.

Thanks! I never played SAP the original way but I read somewhere that it averaged +6 with regular cards. That is good enough for me.

Is it worth à try? Maybe find some kind of tweak to fit the MDB-plan?

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Maybe a different view. I do agree that the frequency of betting opportunities on the lesser side should be greater (4x more frequent as you say). However, using the example of playing 2s, once the next 2iar happens, you are looking again at a 50/50 situation for the next play. By betting a progression that there will be a 3 before 5 2s, it seems we might be tilting that 50/50 proposition more in our favor. I really don't see where it is different from playing the lesser number, other than the opportunity to start the progression on the lesser number will surely occur first. I'm thinking we should play both sides of 3s and 4s, each with a separate 123 progression. Honestly, I'm still thinking about whether I want to play the lesser side of 2s unless the OR is a big positive number. What do you think?

I think you are right. The lesser side of 2s (1's) is dangerous in a minus OR count situation - particularly with regular or replayed preshuffled.

However, in new preshuffled, minus O/R counts tend to go plus which increases the liklihood of 1's ??? - Just as SAP counts tend to favor catching up to even. Remember that preshuffled shoe back there where the SAP count varied widely during the shoe but caught up to 16,16,16,16 by the 2nd to the last play.

I think, like Fred says, a lot depends on what kind of cards are being played:

Regular

New preshuffled or

Replayed preshuffled

I think, for the seminar, we should try to stick to new preshuffled. I think overall MDB+ will do best with that card type. We need to find touch tables where other players are betting evey hand - which is usually the case with touch tables.

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Guys, all of the participation, comments and ideas are very good. Yes, there are still some lingering questions as to the very best way to do this but we are quickly zeroing in.

Hello everyone, I've gone thru 50 shoes and won 48 of them.

Some from Vegas others from my local casino all touch games.

Either this way of playing is the cats ass, or I'm doing it wrong.

Most likely the latter, LOL. I even won some out of your old tester!

Thanks for all the info so far. Brian..

The reward of getting this concept exactly right is huge. We have never before been talking in terms of 48 out of 50. That is a 96% win rate! AND it is a single system, purely mechanical that ANYONE can learn. This is the biggest breakthrough the Baccarat world has ever seen and we seldom bet more than 2 and never more than 3. Unreal! That is teamwork at its best.

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BTW they don't have to be full tables when we play as at the $100 dollar level and even less at Palace Station I have never been refused multiple free hands.

KS

You can tell the winners and honest players by how many times they admit they lost 
not by how many times they say they won.

Need Information Messenger

https://m.me/beatthecasinodotcom

司奇士

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Thanks again Ellis but I was asking about seeing some sample MDB+ shoes?

Right Bobby! Me too. But we are still discussing the best way to play this. And it didn't help that I got the math wrong (incomplete) on that reply to you.

The way I posted to play it might and might not be the best way. There is a lot to what way2fast is saying.

I'll start a new MDB+ thread, since we don't have any yet and take another stab at the correct math. The correct Math should make it obvious how best to play it. I think the odds of playing the lesser event vs the greater event are actually the same. So maybe we should be playing both as way2fast suggested.

Or maybe we should only be reacting to 3s and only going for one or two sure units like Keith said. Watch for a new MDB+ Math thread.

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BTW they don't have to be full tables when we play as at the $100 dollar level and even less at Palace Station I have never been refused multiple free hands.

KS

Right but if we only react to a 2nd 3 as you suggested, we might be waiting half a shoe to make our first bet since there is an average of only 4.5 3s in a full shoe and we already used up 2 of them. We might wear out our welcome. I'm thinking we need to react to both 2s and 3s.

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Ellis. My concern with playing only "secondary progression" bets is that we will be sitting waiting for 1/2 shoes and only placing 10 or less bets per shoe over the course of 40-80 hands played. The time spent on this would require larger unit sizes in order to realize the same profit per day. So where we might be able to play 5 shoes to +5/-5 in 30 hands or less (often 15-20 hands) in under 20 minutes, we are now going to be at a table for an hour or more. If this means we are increasing bet size to compensate for that we may need very large bankrolls. The risk/reward seems to be off.

I'm going to spend time today and this weekend testing my results on TB4L/OTB4L, shoe starts time, and using highest 1 vs highest 2 counts for system selection based on the shoes I have played at real tables in June. My concern is only for new preshuffled cards because if you are willing to play $100 units, there really isn't a casino that won't deal them this way in any of the major areas so I am not concerned if it doesn't do well on reused cards. I think we are on to something powerful with MDB that will allow a $100 to $5000 unit player to play consistently at any major casino with a double digit player advantage which is all we really need.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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