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What happens when there is no more Ellis?


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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

We all have to face it.

Nobody escapes it.

All good things must come to an end.

Could be a job.

Could be the loss of a friend, or a loved one.

Could be that winning streak we thought might last a few more minutes, a few more hours...

But sooner or later, we simply have to face the fact that eventually " the music will stop".

Will it be " Goodbye Yellow Brick Road" for us?

Or " Follow The Yellow Brick Road" ?

Me? I'm in the yellow-rick road camp

( as in gold)

So, how do we prepare?

Do we really (collectively) wish to place our fate in the hands of Google that 30 years of Ellis' teachings will forever be available?

I don't think so.

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Is there enough info here to figure it out ourselves?

Have we just about encountered every type of bias the casinos can throw at us?

Neutral, Opposite, Repeat, change of bias frequently , lack of bias ? - hand shuffled / machine shuffled / preshuffled - there's only so many things you can do to a deck of cards?

The way Ellis trains us is the same theory every time - figure out what the bias is and take advantage of it - he has set it up for us to continue doing what he did for us.

Not saying its going to be easy as I'm only new here but with a lot of practise?

Good question though Kachatz - I'm sure there's many people here who would rather ignore it including myself!

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Some interesting thoughts, but where are those of our senior, LT members...hard to believe we could all be so naive?

There's Something Happening Here

Buffalo Springfield Band points the way for us to collectively consider how to preserve what is likely the greatest arsenal of BTC weapons ever created for BlackJack and Baccarat.....but will we?

Or will it just be Dust In The Wind. .

( There is a solution to this...)

Ideas?

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I'm still alive and as well as could be at my age. But I'm having to spend a lot of time at city hall. When starting to apply for a reverse mortgage I found that the guy I bought this house from 11 years ago did not own it free and clear. And then he died. But I've got a very good lawyer working on clearing my title. But I'm having to do all the leg work and I'm already late for yet another appointment at city hall. Life's a ***** sometimes.

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Think about it....

Since the 80's , Ellis has turned pontification about the subjects of Blackjack and Baccarat into million-dollar formulas we all can learn from and profit handsomely.

I'm NOT saying he's going to stop anytime soon, but someday he will. And nobody knows when that day will be, not even Ellis himself.

Do you think Custer rode out that day KNOWING that there were 10x more Indians than soldiers?

Do you think Benjamin Franklin was told to "go-fly-a-kite, and we'll put your face on the US $100 bill someday" ?

And once fired , how many fearless technocrats KNEW that Steve Jobs would one day be back leading Apple to ever greater fame and fortune?

No, No and No.

So here we collectively gather,

- armed with more SYSTEMS,

- more STRATEGIES, and

- more advanced GAMING WIZARDRY

than ever assembled in one place....

All currently at our disposal, and we smugly assume the music will never stop?

Oh, it WILL stop.

But there is something we could collectively do to make sure we are prepared...and that Ellis' teachings are codified, organized and available for thousands of years to come...

And your bankroll increases 100 times,500 times,or even 1,000's of times from where it is today...

DOES THAT NOT INTEREST YOU?

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I must say kachatz1 one thing I have enjoyed about this site is your humorous and slightly twisted posts.

You've got an idea but your not gonna give it to us are you?

Your gonna make us guess .

I don't know man - wouldn't this site continue and the info would still all be here?

By the way where is Hamster and his money management that cleared 16 units per shoe?

Did he take offence to your Moons Over Your Hammy post?

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I'm still alive and as well as could be at my age. But I'm having to spend a lot of time at city hall. When starting to apply for a reverse mortgage I found that the guy I bought this house from 11 years ago did not own it free and clear. And then he died. But I've got a very good lawyer working on clearing my title. But I'm having to do all the leg work and I'm already late for yet another appointment at city hall. Life's a ***** sometimes.

Ellis, why not come to Canada and play Baccarat?

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I must say kachatz1 one thing I have enjoyed about this site is your humorous and slightly twisted posts.

You've got an idea but your not gonna give it to us are you?

Your gonna make us guess .

I don't know man - wouldn't this site continue and the info would still all be here?

By the way where is Hamster and his money management that cleared 16 units per shoe?

Did he take offence to your Moons Over Your Hammy post?

I am still around... been busy with work and playing the stock market.

Not to mention I have been battling neck pain for weeks.

Last weekend I played poker and lost.

I think Oil stocks have bottomed and will trickle higher.

Oil Sands that is...

Sold Cineplex for a gain.

Sold FSL for a small gain for the year

Averaged down on Oil stock holdings. Now only down 4%.

Bought more US Banks, plus a few others...

Low oil prices will more than likely push the stock market higher and higher, at least until March or April.

BTW - I don't take offence to any posts.:cool:

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I must say kachatz1 one thing I have enjoyed about this site is your humorous and slightly twisted posts.

You've got an idea but your not gonna give it to us are you?

Your gonna make us guess .

I don't know man - wouldn't this site continue and the info would still all be here?

By the way where is Hamster and his money management that cleared 16 units per shoe?

Did he take offence to your Moons Over Your Hammy post?

Hamster? He doesn't take offense as offense - a rare quality.

He sees it as recognition...as validation of existence... at least somebody acknowledged he's there, right or wrong.

It reminds me a little of my war with the BJ card counting organization.

It lasted for several years.

But they were a lot meaner and I was outnumbered thousands against one.

They saw NBJ as Blasphemy - as witchery!

They said I win because I cheat!

Ha, how the hell can a player cheat in BJ?

Shows you how much they know about the game.

Even Hollywood quit making movies about it.

I called them lemmings that couldn't produce a single winner.

Victims of a massive, well organized, scam - but a pipe dream.

Even the casinos are in on it.

People think counters get barred. Casinos don't bar counters - they comp them!

It's me they bar - because they keep records!

You don't hear much about card counters any more.

But you still hear about NBJ and you always will.

Guys like Don Johnson keep it alive. Don doesn't count BTW! - He knows better!

They teach you to bet high when the count is high plus - which might never occur at the table you are playing.

They don't talk about negative counts - which occur exactly HALF the time.

But what does a negative count mean?

It means the tens are falling right now!!!

RIGHT NOW is when you SHOULD be betting high!

But they teach you NOT to bet in a negative count - Ha, exactly when the tens are actually falling.

They simply ignore the fact that you MUST bet EVERY hand.

Dumb bastards!

What does a high positive actually mean? That tens are NOT falling.

THE COUNT IS COUNTING CLUMPING! They are counting the very thing they say doesn't exist - dumb bastards.

Want to win at BJ?

Look! The count does NOT predict the future. A high count might just keep going higher - you lose.

The count is telling you what is happening RIGHT NOW!

The numerical value of the count is TOTALLY MEANINGLESS.

The DIRECTION of the count is EVERYTHING.

Bet HIGH when the count is going down!

Bet low when the count is going up!

Your best table is NOT the table that achieves the highest counts.

Those are the WORST tables in the casino.

The BEST tables are the tables that hover ZERO! - The very tables counters ignore!

BECAUSE those are the tables where the cards are the MOST RANDOM - where the dealer breaks the MOST -

Where the dealer gets the FEWEST first card tens. Play THOSE tables - BECAUSE

Basic Strategy beats RANDOM.

Basic Strategy is WORTHLESS in high count tables - the very tables counters gravitate to!

LOOK! The higher the count goes in EITHER direction the less random the cards are.

High counts MEAN the table is CLUMPED and therefore UNBEATABLE - well except for NBJ First Base.

Basic Strategy CANNOT beat a high count table - ever!

But it KILLS low count tables.

Show me a table where the count never goes past 6 in either direction -

And I'll show you a table where a third base player betting a 3 bet negative pregression CAN'T LOSE playing straight BASIC STRATEGY! THAT IS when Basic Strategy works BEST.

Were do you find such tables? NEW cards and also tables that were played head to head.

Head to head randomizes the cards. That is why I always play head to head.

And that is why I got barred from the game everywhere -

BECAUSE such play wins and the casinos KNOW that.

Can't count? Good! Now I can teach you the very best way.

As the cards fall

Count 2 thru 7 as +1

Count 8 thru ten as -1

Aces swing. Count them +1 when they follow a low and -1 when they follow a high.

Now you have a balanced count that totally agrees with the way cards actually fall -

The best count possible! AND the SIMPLEST!

There is no such thing as neutral! The dumb bastards!

If you doubled on 11 and drew a 9 would you give it BACK? I don't think so!

Look, 8s and 9s are high!

7s are low!

If the dealer has 7 up, she is going to draw. Or better yet, she is stuck with hard 17.

THAT is why 7s are low!

COUNT MY WAY! It is the BEST way.

You can count from the isle.

If the count is staying within 6 in both directions that is ALL you need to know.

You can quit counting. That table is a can't lose table with a 3 bet progression from 3rd base.

What the hell else do you need to know?

DON'T count when you are playing - it is too disracting.

Play BS except don't split! The ONLY time you split is 8s vs 5 or 6.

But Double on 8, 9, 10, or 11 vs a 7 up.

Double and insure with 11 vs Ace!

THAT is how you play BJ !

NOW you are playing NBJ !

NOW you are playing the game to win !

Counters? Forget those scammers. They ALL lose! Lemmings!

E. Clifton Davis

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Ellis, why not come to Canada and play Baccarat?

Hmm, you are the 2nd person today to ask me that same question. I've been following your west coast games.

They are good net bet shoes!

That other guy has arranged free air for me any and every time I want to go to VanCouver.

They are building the biggest casino in the world there.

I should be doing seminars there instead of Vegas.

I'll be there before long God willing.

Where in Canada are you?

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Hi Ellis, I see that your seminars are held during the day in my area. Is there any way you can hold one during the night in my area, as with my work i am unable to attend your seminars. Also if your MDB system is mechanical, why are you not funding a bot for it? So the bot just have to wait for the trigger to happen and alert u when the system is ready to bet. In this case maybe online casinos would be suitable for it.

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Hi Ellis, I see that your seminars are held during the day in my area. Is there any way you can hold one during the night in my area, as with my work i am unable to attend your seminars. Also if your MDB system is mechanical, why are you not funding a bot for it? So the bot just have to wait for the trigger to happen and alert u when the system is ready to bet. In this case maybe online casinos would be suitable for it.

Hi weddings and welcome to the public forum!

Look, I'm 74 years old so you'll have to tell me what a bot is???

Also, where are you located? I'm thinking Vegas.

Get enough guys together and I'll do a seminar anywhere any day, any time of day or night.

Yep, that would be nice if MDB+ played well against on line casinos but in all honesty it only plays fair on line.

See, MDB+ is designed specifically to play against factory preshuffled cards like they deal in Vegas and Asia.

Its 3 bet progression has a 96% win rate against Vegas preshuffled cards.

That is the highest win rate in the history of gambling.

Some of the guys have played it on line and did very well but not 96%.

See, factory preshuffled cards have a weakness - a vulnerability.

They are what I call "super random". (events tend to occur at their normal mathematical frequency of occurrence) - much closer than you'll see with regular cards that arrived at the table in 8 sealed, "box order" decks.

That gave me a vulnerability to exploit through heads up system design.

See, casinos are convinced that random can't be beat. And they are right. No existing system works against factory preshuffled cards and they have driven casino Bac profits to new record highs never seen before.

But super random is a bias in itself and ALL biases can be beat by the right designer with enough experience.

I have been a top designer for more than half a century. MDB+ is the result of that experience and it works better than even I had expected.

The world's highest win rate system.

But lets change subjects to on line:

That is a wholly different challenge.

But on line casinos have a vulnerability too that is created by their oversized cards.

Rather than misapply MDB+ I'm designing a different system for on line casinos to exploit their particular bias.

It is a "2Hi" system meaning our highest bet is 2.

It's goal is an avg of 6 units per shoe.

That might not sound like much to you but the fact is that ANY player who can average 6 units a shoe can readily make a million dollars -

As our player Norm has already proved. We show you exactly how. It is all simple Math.

I'll be releasing that 2Hi system to our MDB members shortly.

But you strike my fancy:

You seem to have deduced that MDB+ is something special.

That is already more than most.

It is incredible to me that gamblers are not clamoring all over each other to get and learn that system.

In my full time gambling days I would have jumped at the chance to learn such a system. That's what pro gamblers do - they learn winning systems.

But it's a different world today - nothing like my world.

Nobody seems to have that dream anymore like we had - beating casinos consistently.

I have no idea of what you new guys dream about???

Back in my day we all had the same dream. And through hard work, study and practice, some of us made that dream come true.

That took years of constant devotion - insane devotion.

But MDB+, ha, it is so simple and so mechanical that anyone of just normal intelligece can learn it completely in a half hour and be on their way to a million dollars.

Yep, you are thinking exactly right. You just sit there and wait for your bet signals to come up.

Most of the guys bet a 123 or 124 progression.

Your hit rate on your first bets are a solid 60%. The highest hit rate in gambling history.

Your hit rate on your 2nd bets is about 65% and third bets are even higher.

Your 3 bet loss rate is 4%. (You lose 4 shoes out of 100) (They average about 3.5 units)

While your winning shoe average is over 6.

So I'm trying to get our players to bet a 345 progression - do the Math.

Before now, no gambler has ever played with that kind of advantage. No where near it. But that's what our guys are getting in Vegas right now!

So why aren't gamblers clamoring to get it?

Beats me! Maybe cause they've been scammed so often before.

I don't scam people. I don't have to.

Anybody can ask any player on the MDB forum what their results are with MDB+ in Vegas.

They'll tell you. In fact they love to tell you! In fact you can't shut them up!

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Hi Ellis, all

I can relate my own experience here in New Zealand playing MDB+

The cards are factory cards, sourced I am told from Las Vegas.

They come to the table as a boxed set of 8 decks and after the cut

they go directly into the shoe.

Since I started playing as Ellis has told us, a few months ago, I am

plus 77 units, and have lost only 1 shoe since 01 September. I play

twice a week, maximum of 3 shoes a day. That's enough for me.

The average for me is +4 units per shoe. The lost shoe was -5 units

but in hindsight I made a mistake playing it at all (lesson learned).

I use the SAP count as a starting guide to indicate whether the shoe

is playing out as an MDB+ shoe, or a NOR shoe.

I am moving my bets higher as I achieve the goal at each level, starting

with $10 units, and now up to $50 units.

On last Sunday (the day I saw the 22 Bankers in a row at another table) my shoe was +8

I won the first 9 bets straight on the first attempt, and lost only the final bet of the shoe.

So if that is not a solid recommendation for MDB+, I cannot think of one

regards

Pando

New Zealand

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Hi all I am from Singapore. Since MDB+ is to be used for random shoes/results. I first thought of roulette. Roulette is another game with random results do you think we can use in on roulette's even chances? Also for the MDB i understand that do we use a progression. If 1 2 4 is being used, what are the chances of bursting this bankroll?

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I think everyone is starting to understand a bit about this whole subject of " what happens when there is no more Ellis"

It's pretty much like Where'sWaldo, if you can remember that one....or look it up on your favorite search engine....Waldo was always there, SOMEWHERE, but what if you could not find him?

Yes, b-rad....there just might always be an internet, to which we can always look for guidance.

But what if there is no more internet?

Then what?

Ellis is more than just a figment of our imagination, or simply a mythical " storybook character" like Waldo, or Princess Lea, or James Bond...

He's real.

Are we going to simply rely on some unproven idea, some outlandish notion of there always being an internet to make sure he is always there?

In 5, 10, 25 even 100 years from now?

Don' t you think your children, or even their children could benefit from a little more ?

Assuming, of course..." THEY" ( whoever THEY are...) don't abolish the games, or casinos no longer exist....

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BTW, give him credit.

Hammy invites Ellis to come to Canada to come play. EZ for him to say, I know...

And we're so focused on Getting Hammy to pony-up a measly couple of bucks for NOR, or MDB, we lose sight of the bigger picture.

The Hamster of triple-index options trades...The Hammy who understands that " buy low, sell high" is easier said-than-done...The Ham-and-Cheese maestro who understands that oil prices cannot help but rise once again...

And yet, misplaced as his notion of Ellis traveling the world is, he almost gets it....

Why not Canada?

Why not Singapore?

Why not Atlantis?

Why not Monte Carlo?

WHY?

WHY-NOT??????

(Because, there's only one Ellis)

But we are many.

As Ellis might say..."Get It?"

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I think everyone is starting to understand a bit about this whole subject of " what happens when there is no more Ellis"

It's pretty much like Where'sWaldo, if you can remember that one....or look it up on your favorite search engine....Waldo was always there, SOMEWHERE, but what if you could not find him?

Yes, b-rad....there just might always be an internet, to which we can always look for guidance.

But what if there is no more internet?

Then what?

Ellis is more than just a figment of our imagination, or simply a mythical " storybook character" like Waldo, or Princess Lea, or James Bond...

He's real.

Are we going to simply rely on some unproven idea, some outlandish notion of there always being an internet to make sure he is always there?

In 5, 10, 25 even 100 years from now?

Don' t you think your children, or even their children could benefit from a little more ?

Assuming, of course..." THEY" ( whoever THEY are...) don't abolish the games, or casinos no longer exist....

post-6982-14500262711128_thumb.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Where's_Wally%3F

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

Epstein, you're getting closer!

Wally...Bottom left hand corner of the picture.

- Like a line-drive just past the out reached glove of the diving third baseman.

- Just like a business plan that fails the SWOT " test" because it relies too much on one parameter against all others to overcome the THREAT, the POTENTIALLY SINGLE MOST DAMAGING THREAT we might ever face to our bankroll...to each and every one of us for ever collecting on that million $$

- And likely a far worse outcome than Jamie Lee Curtis hiding in the Master Bedroom closet hoping to outsmart Jason in Halloween 21 will ever likely experience...

Or...NOT, if we play our cards right...

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Casinos will always be there in one form or another. Demand creates supply. And there is no such thing as a perfect casino in spite of stockholders desires. They all have their vulnerabilities. Our job...our duty is to find their vulnerabilities and exploit them.

NOR beats regular cards better than any other approach.

MDB+ beats Vegas preshuffled cards with the highest performance of any gambling system ever.

What's left?

Internet casinos are taking over the entire industry.

Their oversize cards present a third game.

They aren't like regular cards and they aren't like preshuffled either.

Kevin had the right idea and the best idea: Net betting.

My job is to make it a net betting system that is all inclusive - that beats ANY kind of cards.

This means it cannot depend on biases. It can't care what the cards do.

A pretty tall order for my grand finale.

My testers say we are almost there. "Almost"

Complicating the task is I have been very ill since Thanksgiving.

I just learned yesterday that all 15 of us who were at the Thanksgiving dinner came down with the same unidentifiable illness.

It doesn't show up in blood tests or flu swabs - yet you think you're gonna die. - Everything hurts and you can't function.

But all of our various doctors eventually came to the same conclusion mine did.

We don't know what it is but pinicillin defeats it.

They put me on pinicillin two days ago.

I already feel like a new person.

Now, back to the drawing board!

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I don't want you guys to get me wrong - so I want to add something here:

MDB+ works in conjunction with the outer fringes of the random envelope.

It bets that while a shoe can be very biased (non-random) that it won't reach the outer extremes of non random.

As the guys have clearly demonstrated, it beats the majority of all shoes no matter their origin.

It's just that it clearly does BEST against Vegas preshuffled cards.

A 96% shoe win rate is certainly a world record for a 4 Hi system.

But don't expect to achieve that result on line. You'll do good, but not THAT good.

I think a 2Hi net bet system can achieve better results on line. THAT is what I working on right now.

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  • 3 months later...
  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
We all have to face it.

Nobody escapes it.

All good things must come to an end.

Could be a job.

Could be the loss of a friend, or a loved one.

Could be that winning streak we thought might last a few more minutes, a few more hours...

But sooner or later, we simply have to face the fact that eventually " the music will stop".

Will it be " Goodbye Yellow Brick Road" for us?

Or " Follow The Yellow Brick Road" ?

Me? I'm in the yellow-rick road camp

( as in gold)

So, how do we prepare?

Do we really (collectively) wish to place our fate in the hands of Google that 30 years of Ellis' teachings will forever be available?

I don't think so.

So, I'll ask again.

Is this simply an illustration of THE QUICK and THE DEAD ?

( 1995 movie...have a look)

Or, were we all just 2Hi to " get it" ?

Shouldn't we be collectively finding a way to preserve all that is, before it's too late?

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