Ellis New Forum

[Keith Smith]

Here is Ellis's new forum is on the link below. Kindly please stop promoting his website on mine. I am working hard to eliminate threads and posts of no value starting at the beginning.

I do not want to be associated in any way with him selling yet another approach and manual that is simply a new twist on something already done. It's an Opposite or a Repeat and any statistic that has any value in a non random game has been discuss and purposed not in a manual but here in the forum. If it is a random game then the next event is unpredictable play MDB then.

1. The System
   
2. Twister
   
3. Anti twister
   
4. Matrix
   
5. System 40 (three Systems)
   
6. *Mode 1
   
7. *Mode 2
   
8. *Mode3
   
9. OTB4L
   
10. TBL
    
11. F1
    
12. F2
    
13. F3
    
14. 4D
    
15. 2Hi
    
16. MDB
    
17. MDB+
    
18. SAP
    
19. Reverse SAP
    
20. RD1
    
21. NOR
    
22. Net Bet High Side
    
23. Net Bet Low Side
    

And a bunch more I can't think of all have value in certain situations but no other is necessary to sell for certain for hundreds of dollars. If you can't win with all those you aren't going to.

You need to know if a game is a non random game

• What does the bias favor opposites or repeats?
  
• If it favors either one, you can win by flat betting the bias.
  
• I am going to to that at the Horseshoe in Baltimore on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in Mexico City with Stephen.
  

If it is random play MDB+ and bet against sequential event's occurring.

These things are generally casino sensitive and that why we are making the region specific forums.

http://www.casinoforum.club

The Spirit and Goal of this forum is to have a players club who all contribute to teaching each other how to play and how to win. It has gotten away from my original vision. No one has all the answers. I am trying hard to get it back to that. So contribute while I try to find a structure and business plan that works.

Regards

Keith

Edited July 19, 2015 by Keith Smith

[Keith Smith]

And one of our flaws as players is what I call the "Want to Believe Syndrome".

For instance when we read why Net Betting works explanation ( the thread I am working on for an article at the moment) and it sounds reasonable the immediate feeling you get is wow yes I can go do that it makes perfect sense. And then when someone says I copyrighted it in 1992... ( bullshit BTW anything posted in this forum is owned by BeatTheCasino LLC). This must be great stuff. It was tested by my testers on 1000s of shoes. Let me tell you guys are the testers and thousands of shoes is no secret club in the background making these tests as I found out. It is what we post here if you want to know what works post it here.

Take for instance this statement:

Betting unopposed:

The most important aspect of net betting is knowing when to suspend betting a prog. Our standard is after two losing bets. However it is decidedly best to adjust this number to the shoe you are playing. SAP charting is the most accurate way to do this. You can also go by which bet you are usually winning.

That sounds very intelligent, but what is the underlying scientific statistical evidence that this will work? I'll tell you none. If the game is random as net betting is supposed to beat: random cards, you are arbitrarily trying to adjust by voodoo and by making something simple sound complex and restating in a way to make it sound valuable.

And the rub is this you want to believe it because then you can go do it and win. Real players are here, anyone really win net betting any significant amount??? Sure if there is a biased game and you catch it great you did. If it was random and you got lucky great you did. But on every random game . So where is it's value?? In a casino where the game is non random and vulnerable to this approach and for no other reason.

Now do you want to listen to the players in the casino who are here and help each other for basically free now or go to another site pay for a new manual and listen to double talk about Genius IQs, and twisted words and new twists on old stuff by someone who doesn't even play anymore and hasn't won significant amount in years. It's a free county you decide.

Quality takes times to build, but I am no loser this will and will always be the place for players - after all you are all here, you are players. I will make this forum reorganized clear, consice and updated by our players. Everyone who is an MDB user will have access to the regional forum of their choice for free. Read that again for FREE. I am going to charge new members an initiation fee and a monthly fee to support the forum. I am going to rebuild this place from scratch that will work and be reasonable to join. I don't need to sell manuals to survive, I am not flat broke as some people are.

I am also working on a script based form to enter games and show the statistics of the game, i.e opposites, repeats, and what approach beat it best. And if the script see randon over games in the same casino or statistical variation by assignable cause.

This will take time but I am working on it, quality takes time and rebuild. It's your forum, your ideas what count real players in real casinos.

Regards

Keith

Edited July 19, 2015 by Keith Smith

[JimU]

Hi Keith,

All well stated! (...except your Ellis bashing, don't forget

he created all/most of those approaches).

 

( no he didn't they were al created and fed to him By Ron Charlie and myself when we were playing Atlantic City and feeding him information about the game)

It's quite a list of approaches, but having gone though

them all, they do all add up to gestalt about the game

that provides experience to help one play well.

Please leave most of the meat of the posts in place, there

are lots of diamonds and gold dust scattered among them,

some may find useful info where others wouldn't, so please

don't take a heavy hand to the existing threads.

Regards, Jim

[ECD]

Keith,

Thanks for providing some perspective on the direction of the forum. This forum has always been best when players were active in sharing ideas and working out methods. For a number of reasons, many of those very players that helped make this board so great are no longer posting, or have been banned or moved on in some fashion. Fortunately, new players soon become engaged more and there could always be a good exchange of ideas if the board is set up to allow and foster it. I like your plan of keeping the focus on the players and think the use of regional forums is probably a good idea.

I would also echo Jim's comments about being careful in making wholesale deletions of historical posts. There are a lot of gems of information buried in those threads -- yes they are hard to find sometimes, but it would be a shame if they just disappeared.

However, I'm not going to subscribe to your critical comments about Ellis. Despite whatever flaws he has (don't we all!), Ellis has a brilliant mind for the game of baccarat, has always cared about the success of his students, and had a lot to do with me developing a better way to think about the game. I would rather he could still be at BTC -- but that is not reality. It's clear you guys have had a significant falling-out, and I don't pretend to know if either of you are more at fault than the other, or whether it is even remotely possible that he could have continued at BTC any longer-- and I don't care as its your business and you have to decide who you want to work with. But just as (justifiably) you do not expect members to promote Ellis' site on this board, it would be great if you didn't use the board to piss on him. If we are moving on, then let's move on.

Thanks for working to keep BTC going -- it is clearly unique in the gaming world. Looking forward to all the upcoming changes and hopefully many more opportunities to play together.

Way

[Ntrl9]

Keith,

Thanks for providing some perspective on the direction of the forum. This forum has always been best when players were active in sharing ideas and working out methods. For a number of reasons, many of those very players that helped make this board so great are no longer posting, or have been banned or moved on in some fashion. Fortunately, new players soon become engaged more and there could always be a good exchange of ideas if the board is set up to allow and foster it. I like your plan of keeping the focus on the players and think the use of regional forums is probably a good idea.

I would also echo Jim's comments about being careful in making wholesale deletions of historical posts. There are a lot of gems of information buried in those threads -- yes they are hard to find sometimes, but it would be a shame if they just disappeared.

However, I'm not going to subscribe to your critical comments about Ellis. Despite whatever flaws he has (don't we all!), Ellis has a brilliant mind for the game of baccarat, has always cared about the success of his students, and had a lot to do with me developing a better way to think about the game. I would rather he could still be at BTC -- but that is not reality. It's clear you guys have had a significant falling-out, and I don't pretend to know if either of you are more at fault than the other, or whether it is even remotely possible that he could have continued at BTC any longer-- and I don't care as its your business and you have to decide who you want to work with. But just as (justifiably) you do not expect members to promote Ellis' site on this board, it would be great if you didn't use the board to piss on him. If we are moving on, then let's move on.

Thanks for working to keep BTC going -- it is clearly unique in the gaming world. Looking forward to all the upcoming changes and hopefully many more opportunities to play together.

Way

I concur- Well said W2F....

[newbacplayer]

Thanks for your perspective and outlining the future of the forum.

[avion]

I have returned here after being absent for a couple of years, due to my work.  Now that my work is done, I am here again, and loving it.  Thank you Keith for not only setting the record straight, and also for your values, principles, and philosophy of establishing a true COMMUNITY that gives and shares with each other.  I am grateful and proud to be a part of the BTC community.