Up as you win 221 Baccarat for pro players

[Keith Smith]

Team,

I really think we miss some opportunities with up as you win. Only due to the successful play I have done with it with 2, 2, 1. Here is the shoe I did a few Nights ago at Hollywood casino. I want to play a few more out on this thread as videos.

http://www.screencast.com/t/V78pxmjojB6

Password is CasinoPlayer

Your thoughts please.

KS

[Keith Smith]

Here are a few NTRL shoes played up as you win froma previous thread.

Same password

http://www.screencast.com/t/tJYcuBeiM

[Guest]

Well , you demonstrated that it work's for Repeat shoes . And I think if you follow the O/R count in general , it will work for S40 shoes as well .As for OTBL shoes . What about following 2's and 3's or 3+'s to see which is MC . With the O/R count ?

[douglasb53]

Keith, I would like to clarify something on the 2-2-1-. If you have lost several in a row and your betting sequence has lots of #'s, when you finally hit a long run of repeats . Are bets following a win double bets( meaning you add the 1st and last # in the sequence), and do double bets continue until you have a loss then you just bet the 1st # in the sequence? In your examples the sequence never got that far. Hope you understand what I'm trying to ask.

[Keith Smith]

Yes anytime you win your next bet is always the combination of two bets. If you lose the next bet is always just 1 number on the line.

Last night I tried it in one shoe at Hollywood Casino I actually played it F on the banker side. Attached it the results for 1 shoe +23 for 1 shoe was playing $15.00 base bet.

I always thought that in case of losing a few in a row it should still yield good results with a simple 1 - 1 - 1. I am thinking all I need to do is a stop win and stop loss per shoe and decide what approach will be best for the shoe. I'm experimenting.

I know the card isn't very telling I'll try to think of a way to document better.

If there is statistically a way to win betting up as you lose progressions then the converse must also be true there is a way to win betting up as you win. I'll admit though I am now using subjectivity to decide what approach to use with it when I look at the shoe. Maybe triggers will tell us. Up as you win can yield big wins.

Keith

Edited September 4, 2015 by Keith Smith

[douglasb53]

I tried this on Roulette the other day in Peoria because the Bac table wasn't open. It was not good. Was playing follow the shoe but was not waiting for 2 loses before switching. The table was chopping like crazy. Got up to a 14 unit bet..lost it also. Of course the table next to me was streaking and I would have killed it. I like the idea of 1-1-1 . Was thinking of that on the way home. Win your 3 units and start over. Need to work on Triggers and when to stop!

[Keith Smith]

YEs if you lose a lot in a row it can get a bit flaky. You have to have nerve to play it and I have bet 200 units and came back with quite a few numbers left to cross off. That's why I wouldn't suggest playing it at green but as low as possible to start. Of course one needs to realize in a close to 50 50 game, you stand a pretty good chance of losing the bet just as much as winning. So if you shove out 14 units you can easily lose it.

I am going to try 1,1,1 and also a see if I can find some BAC triggers for it and how to adjust to game. You can certainly bet opposites up as you win to, in addition to up as you win up as you lose simultaneously.

How many numbers did you have to cross of before you would have close the frame?

I bet not more than 4 in a row ( 8 numbers not crossed off) and you were even.

KS

[brad01]

Hi Keith I tried this with based on Midas Touch system which is similar reverse labouchere cancellation system.

But what happened is that on a bad run the bets increase.

Depends how your wins come in - if its wwLwwL then its fine or even LLLLwww its ok but this method relies on consecutive wins like a parlay to cross off faster than you accumulate

If its wLwLwL then all you do is increase uncrossed sums and cross off smaller values

At least flat bet you break even and negative progression you win

Not saying its not viable and cant work just based on what I experienced

The thing with this system is most people think they can cancel out everything eventually and its like a HG or something so they keep betting and their bet selection goes down and their bet size goes up.

Once again flat bet you never stray from the plan because you cant so I find it the absolute safest way but a 1,2 I could live with.

But I'm open to ideas

One thing I did hear of was a guy who made a living from 111224488

Aim to win one unit

first bet you bet 1

then if lose go to a double win

If lose go to parlay

then onto the 2 for a double win

if lose go to 2 for a parlay

and so on

at any step you only need 2 wins to come out +1

Eg lose all the 1's and then get a double win on the 2 = +4

Or lose the first 2 and then get a parlay = +6

If lose the series start again

With a good bet selection you could get a double win within the series quite a lot more than losing and maybe even win more than you lose

But 8 unit higher than base bet - aaargh!

[Keith Smith]

We played this High Risk High reward in AC for a year. I know it's a crazy approach sometimes but my intention with this is to get some thought on up as you win options.

I was out last night and played it 1, 1, 1 again on OTB4l and won +5 at black and left. I was tired it was after my son's fb game. I may go to PARX today and see how those games look. When we play NOR a losing prog kills us, this on the other hand a losing prog is only betting 1. I am not certain if a mode enhancement ( how many you lose before you stop) or a Trigger ( When do you switch systems) is the answer but the only reason I won't let this approach go is because mechanically for a whole year it won and it won big. So there has to be something worth looking at.

[Keith Smith]

Hmmm I must be losing my mind I lost a post, anyway it is my experience and only an observation but backed by 2.2.1 wins that you tend to win hands in row rather than alternate hands won. You don't win one lose one very often in Baccarat, with the possible exception of an otb4l game.

You tend to win a few hands in a row etc. Now with MDB an up as you lose works great but when you sit down to play every hand this is what generally happens. This is the tester from titlelistsguys post. This type of game lends itself to a flat bet or up as you win and not up as you lose betting.

Thoughts?

K

[stevep]

I guess I'm confused. I understand the 2,2,1 concept, it's very simple. In one of your prior posts you said you use very small units since you can have to bet in your case to a 200 unit bet. At $5 your 200 unit bet would = $1,000.00. I have no problem betting $1,000.00 I have done it before many times, but, I can't see betting $1,000.00 and trying to complete a progression when if I make all these large bets and I get to complete the progression 2,2,1 I win 5 units at $5 = $25.00 I think you have to be out of your mind to risk a $1,000.00 bet + some other large bets just to win $25.00. Please explain, what am I missing?????????

[brad01]

But i think the point of your post keith was whether up as u win has merit not about 221. Im sure up as u win does. Just most things ive learned here so far is negative progression

[Keith Smith]

I was playing at Resorts this weekend. I change it few times to a 1,1,1 staking line. I think this is a better way to Bet NOR. I never lost a shoe and when the shoe ended I ended the system and started again from Scratch.

When we played it with straight repeats we pick up where we left off. Yes we did have some 200 unit bets when we did this but we weren't changing approaches to atch the game complexion. This weekend I generally changed after three losses.

I don't think you can argue with the win rate and the units won. After two shoes +43ish In addition Ron and myself played it for quarters 1,1,1 at the trop and after 20 hannds, shoes 10 green also very quickly

[Keith Smith]

I guess I'm confused. I understand the 2,2,1 concept, it's very simple. In one of your prior posts you said you use very small units since you can have to bet in your case to a 200 unit bet. At $5 your 200 unit bet would = $1,000.00. I have no problem betting $1,000.00 I have done it before many times, but, I can't see betting $1,000.00 and trying to complete a progression when if I make all these large bets and I get to complete the progression 2,2,1 I win 5 units at $5 = $25.00 I think you have to be out of your mind to risk a $1,000.00 bet + some other large bets just to win $25.00. Please explain, what am I missing?????????

When we made those bets we were way head to be honest, but I never lost with the approach. Granted now we tweaked it a bit and we are now trying to match the game type to the system which seems to be working well rather than wading through the opposite runs.

In addition we never stopped a system and continue where we left off. I think this with matching the game type will significantly decrease the number of times you are faced with larger bets.

[brad01]

Hi Keith, I have been giving this some thought and I want to play hit and run on roulette tables at my casino.

I don't expect to get the same sort of hit rate I am getting where I sit at one table and wait for high % bets to come in.

Therefore I expect I will need a progression.

This could be what I am looking for.

Walking around looking at tote boards you can see last 20 plays and if you do a quick OR count and either bet repeats, opposites, or OTBL.

I would hope to get 50 / 50 or more and a cancellation system can work as low as 40% hit rate

I tried it many years ago but I was not at all focused on bet selection and believed the secret to gambling was a 'holy grail' mechanical system hence why it never worked.

I daresay my bet selection has improved since I joined here.

Do you think this approach could work for something like I describe?

[Keith Smith]

I prefer staying at the same place and trying to understand what is going on rather than hit and run anymore.

Yes I leave if it is bad (nothng works) and check out the next game.

We played it in Roulette over the weekend but I prefer Baccarat. We are effectively playing NOR with an up as you win progression and a shoe stop loss, stop win. Short term the results are much improved over negative betting progression NOR used initially.

I am certain if we check the statistics on NOR play we would see statistically we win more hands in a row than we alternating wins, which is what negative progressions needs.

The Baccarat Games at resorts where I played this weekend were Hand Shuffled cards, no machine, Dragon 7, no Vig unless banker hits the 7 then its a tie I like that because you can't lose a total big bet on a hand, yes of course you may lose the next hand then since you would have normally won.

I would play it on Baccarat games with tote boards hand shuffled cards, if you want to do hit and run. That's what worked the best for e so far.

KS

[stevep]

I'm still trying to understand. You would bet 100 units + several other large bets in order to complete you progression which would only gain you $25.00.

Yes, you said that you were winning, at what point would you say to yourself AM I CRAZY FOR MAKING THESE BETS??????????????

[brad01]

Read the book The Midas Touch by Bruce Irwin and he uses a reverse labouchere which he claims never lost

Its a cancellation system where you complete the series and if you have confidence and experience to know you will complete the series then yes it can call for big bets.

Like Keith says if your way ahead and have confidence then why not but I wouldn't do it without stop loss and just to try and take short term wins quickly for hit and run

Theres another guy who supposedly used 111224488 double win / parlay for a living

Also some Australian guys who used the following;

11111 = 5 units

Your bet is always the first 3 numbers of the series

A loss gets added to the end

So a win gives you 11 left

then you have a loss

112

another loss

1124

then a win

4

a loss

44

a win

complete

crossing off 3 numbers on a win vs adding 1 for a loss gives you a very low win ratio needed but also adds high numbers on the series

They used to play it on roulette and pick streaky tables - and they said you will have to get used to making large bets but this only bothered them at the start until they were way ahead and then they didn't care as had confidence they would complete the series.

But I think the whole discussion is up as you win vs up as you lose rather than a HG system that will always work.

[douglasb53]

Brad, I played craps last night using the 111224488 and won 15 units in about an hour. I did have to go to the first 8 but most of the time I won on the 1's and 2's. I was just betting the don't pass and stopping if a shooter beat me twice.

[brad01]

Thats pretty good mate. I dont know a lot about craps but apparently there are some bets real close to 50/50 if you know them. We had 1 table here for a while but they closed it down. Good on keith for bringing up the up as u win discussion because its really just as valid as up as u lose. I played around with the 111224488 for a while too. In theory you think it would be easy to get a double win within the series. But towards the end uts a big risk for little reward. Frank Barstow says in his book that the thing with series is you will make most of your $ towards the start and towards the end you are dramatically increasing your risk with little reward. You just backed up that with what you said. Progressions aside though bet selection is king.

[brad01]

Keith do you see the point in smoothing out the bet series as it increases to avoid the big bets? Eg 221 increases to something like 21446 - smooth it out to 22652 to lower the first bet and the next double cancellation bet. Those high numbers can cause bet sizes to increase exponentially. Keeping the high numbers in the middle and distributing them out averages out the bet sizes?

[BronxAl]

Originally Posted by brad01

Re: Up as you win 221 Baccarat for pro players

Hi Keith I tried this with based on Midas Touch system which is similar reverse labouchere cancellation system.

But what happened is that on a bad run the bets increase.

Depends how your wins come in - if its wwLwwL then its fine or even LLLLwww its ok but this method relies on consecutive wins like a parlay to cross off faster than you accumulate

If its wLwLwL then all you do is increase uncrossed sums and cross off smaller values

At least flat bet you break even and negative progression you win

Not saying its not viable and cant work just based on what I experienced

The thing with this system is most people think they can cancel out everything eventually and its like a HG or something so they keep betting and their bet selection goes down and their bet size goes up.

Once again flat bet you never stray from the plan because you cant so I find it the absolute safest way but a 1,2 I could live with.

But I'm open to ideas

One thing I did hear of was a guy who made a living from 111224488

Aim to win one unit

first bet you bet 1

then if lose go to a double win

If lose go to parlay

then onto the 2 for a double win

if lose go to 2 for a parlay

and so on

at any step you only need 2 wins to come out +1

Eg lose all the 1's and then get a double win on the 2 = +4

Or lose the first 2 and then get a parlay = +6

If lose the series start again

With a good bet selection you could get a double win within the series quite a lot more than losing and maybe even win more than you lose

But 8 unit higher than base bet - aaargh!

It's called the 31 system.

Edited September 11, 2015 by FrontAl
Should have been reply with quote

[BronxAl]

Hi Keith I tried this with based on Midas Touch system which is similar reverse labouchere cancellation system.

But what happened is that on a bad run the bets increase.

Depends how your wins come in - if its wwLwwL then its fine or even LLLLwww its ok but this method relies on consecutive wins like a parlay to cross off faster than you accumulate

If its wLwLwL then all you do is increase uncrossed sums and cross off smaller values

At least flat bet you break even and negative progression you win

Not saying its not viable and cant work just based on what I experienced

The thing with this system is most people think they can cancel out everything eventually and its like a HG or something so they keep betting and their bet selection goes down and their bet size goes up.

Once again flat bet you never stray from the plan because you cant so I find it the absolute safest way but a 1,2 I could live with.

But I'm open to ideas

One thing I did hear of was a guy who made a living from 111224488

Aim to win one unit

first bet you bet 1

then if lose go to a double win

If lose go to parlay

then onto the 2 for a double win

if lose go to 2 for a parlay

and so on

at any step you only need 2 wins to come out +1

Eg lose all the 1's and then get a double win on the 2 = +4

Or lose the first 2 and then get a parlay = +6

If lose the series start again

With a good bet selection you could get a double win within the series quite a lot more than losing and maybe even win more than you lose

But 8 unit higher than base bet - aaargh!

It's called the 31 system.

[BronxAl]

Read the book The Midas Touch by Bruce Irwin and he uses a reverse labouchere which he claims never lost

Its a cancellation system where you complete the series and if you have confidence and experience to know you will complete the series then yes it can call for big bets.

Like Keith says if your way ahead and have confidence then why not but I wouldn't do it without stop loss and just to try and take short term wins quickly for hit and run

Theres another guy who supposedly used 111224488 double win / parlay for a living

Also some Australian guys who used the following;

11111 = 5 units

Your bet is always the first 3 numbers of the series

A loss gets added to the end

So a win gives you 11 left

then you have a loss

112

another loss

1124

then a win

4

a loss

44

a win

complete

crossing off 3 numbers on a win vs adding 1 for a loss gives you a very low win ratio needed but also adds high numbers on the series

They used to play it on roulette and pick streaky tables - and they said you will have to get used to making large bets but this only bothered them at the start until they were way ahead and then they didn't care as had confidence they would complete the series.

But I think the whole discussion is up as you win vs up as you lose rather than a HG system that will always work.

Why not try the Patrick System: 1-1-1-2-2-3. Using the same principles, risking only 10 units and the highest bet would be parleying the 3.

[BronxAl]

Brad, I played craps last night using the 111224488 and won 15 units in about an hour. I did have to go to the first 8 but most of the time I won on the 1's and 2's. I was just betting the don't pass and stopping if a shooter beat me twice.

Yes, when I play craps on the don't side. Betting only after two players seven out or one player hits a craps win and sevens out. This is the smartest way to play craps.