Betting Progressions, the when and why

[ECD]

It seems we don’t talk enough about betting progressions and yet they are critical to our success at baccarat. So I’ll start by talking about one of my favorites. The 3,4,5 negative progression.Then you can all chime in.

Since I am only playing only sections of shoes for 10 to 20 hands, I usually play with a 3,4,5 progression (prog). There is nothing new here. Ellis has mentioned this in the past but I want to elaborate for those that are not taking advantage of it. It is important to understand the advantage(s) of this progression and when and why to use it. The 3,4,5 is a forgiving progression, even if you lose all 12 units. I will explain why in a moment.

It should be used for when things are going well and you are winning most of your first bets. Yet it offers fast recovery time if you lose.

The reason I use it is because where I play, there are several tables and I look for the most consistent table AT THAT POINT IN TIME.

When using this prog, you should choose a unit size that is closest to what your normal bet usually is. For example, if you normally bet $15/hands, then you should be basing at $5, so your 1 bet is $15 (3 x $5), 2 bet is $20 (4 x $5) and 3 bet is $25 (5 x $5).

So, when I have located a great table, I have a good feeling that I am going to make my 5 units quickly and leave the shoe. The reason the 3,4,5 prog works great is because I am expecting to win most of my hands on the 1 bet, so therefore I want the biggest BANG on that first bet. Now, if I lose that bet (of $15), no worries, my second bet is 4 units ($20), if I win I have recovered my initial bet and won an additional 33% ($5). If I lose my 2 bet, then I bet 5 units ($25).

Let’s compare, a 1,2,3 prog to a 3,4,5 prog using a $15 unit bet. Let’s also say that your $15 represents a bet of 100%.

So here is what the scenarios look like and why it is easier to recover from a 3,4,5 progression as opposed to a 1,2,3 progression.

http://i890.photobucket.com/albums/ac110/kabobmaster/345%20prog_zpsfacv3sr1.jpg

Here is another great tip I got from PapaJoe. When you are experiencing extreme chop or streak. Once you have won 3 hands in a row, then bet 2 units on all the following hands until you lose. Then go back to whatever betting prog you were using. It’s an easy way to KILL a shoe if you hit a long streak (ZZ or ST).

So in the case of the prog we are talking about here, the 3,4,5, Let’s say I won 3 bets in a row. My unit bets would look like this, $15 15 15 30 30 30 30 etc. until a loss.

Even if you lose the first 2 unit bet that you make, you are still ahead 1 unit. It is worth the risk. While playing this way you can make 13-15 units in one good run.

YES you heard me right, do the math. That’s more than what you might make if you stayed in the shoe for 70 hands. So it’s worth the risk and happens more often than you think.

Good luck

CT70

[Jim Files]

Great post CT70, Thanks for sharing. I'll definitely give this a try.

Jim

[kingfisher]

Hello CT70. What would the betting progressions be if starting out $20 bets? Also, what would the bet size be for $25 starting bets? Thanks

[Fedda]

Hello CT70. What would the betting progressions be if starting out $20 bets? Also, what would the bet size be for $25 starting bets? Thanks

Hi, I can help you with this. If you want exact numbers it's important you choose a starting bet that can be divided by three. 21, 24, 27, 30 etc..

Then you add 1/3 for every bet, e.g. 21 (7x3), 28 (7x4), 35 (7x5). The easiest starting bet in that region would be 30$ (30, 40, 50).

[ECD]

Well I would either drop down to $15, so that your common denominator is $5. We need to make the common denominator match the baccarat tables (we can't divide 20 by 3) So then it would be just as in the example I previously provided of $15,20, and $25. Now, if you don't want to drop down to a lower bet size, then you can go to a 2, 3,4 progression, $20,30 40, where now your common denominator is $10. The 2, 3,4 is slightly more aggressive than the 3,4,5. Not much though. The 2, 3, 4 is also a prog to use when things are going well. Where the recovery on the 3,4,5 is 4 1st unit bets, the 2,3,4 requires 41/2 first unit bets to recover. So it's like the next best thing. As long as we're on the subject, the U1D2 is aggressive but the U1D2M2 is more aggressive. And again with any of these progressions, after you've won 3 of your 1st unit bets on ZZ and ST runs, you can go to betting (Power betting-courtesy of Papajoe) 2 units of whatever your 1st bet was, and stay at 2 units until you lose.

For the $25 starting bet, I would recommend $30,40,50.

Remember that the only thing that is going to pull you thru losses are progressions. It's important to choose the right progression relative to what the shoe is putting out AND what your goal is for the shoe at hand. We need to be realistic in the goal that we set.

Good luck,

CT70

Edited October 31, 2015 by ECD

[ECD]

Hey Guys as long as we are on the subject of progressions, below are different negative progressions in order of mild to aggressive. #1 (112) is the mildest. The commentary next to the progression only refers to what percentage of gain you have, (relative to the 1st bet), provided you win the second bet in the progression.

1.      112 The second bet of 1 unit (if won) just recovers without any additional profit,

2.      456 The second bet of 5 units (if won), recovers 100% of your 1st bet and provides an additional 25% of profit (5 is 25% more than 4).

3.      345 The second bet of 4 units (if won), recovers 100% of your 1st bet and provides an additional 33% of profit (4 is 33% more than 3)

4.      234 The second bet of 3 (if won), recovers 100% of your 1st bet and provides additional 50% profit (3 is 50% more than 2)

5.      123 The second bet of 2 (if won), recovers 100% of your 1st bet and provides additional 100% of profit (2 is 100% more than 1)

6.      U1D2 (for experienced players) overcomes a lot of adversity. Best to cap at 6 units. Sufficient bankroll is necessary to play this progression.

7.      U1D2M2 (for experienced players) overcomes a lot of adversity. Best to cap at 6 units. Sufficient bankroll is necessary to play this progression.

8.      U1D2B2 (for experienced players) mostly used in exploit shoes. Best to cap at 6 units. Sufficient bankroll is necessary to play this progression.

9.      U1D1 (for experienced players) This is the most aggressive. Sufficient bankroll is necessary to play this progression.

For progression numbers 1 thru 5, you can figure out what the recovery time is in hands, if you just add the units up and divide by the 1 number in the prog. For example, #3 is the 345 prog. If you lose the entire prog of 3+4+5 (12 units), it will take you 4 winning bets of 3 units each to recover back to -0-.