How the cards fall

[BacPlayer]

15 hours ago, cashout said:

Hi,

 OZ,CT70, PapaJoe, Brad, Wolfat, Way2fast,

 

I am in complete amazement. I was not expecting this perfect storm. I knew one day in my dreams this would happen all  of

you coming together. Oz I want to first off thank you for all the incredible advice that is priceless you have given. I know you have mentioned

many times you are not a teacher and I appreciate and everyone here really does. Papa Joe thank you for your great advice. CT70 I hope you are

taking the casino " You know which ones " to the cleaners with all your winnings. Way2fast great pic of those beautiful looking chips from Vegas you posted awhile back.

Brad it never seems to amaze me with your contributions. You are always helpful. Wolfat I hope all is well. 

 

I know we never stop learning but one thing for sure I can tell you its ALWAYS a pleasure learning from more experienced players because to win

a million bucks from a couple hundred dollars is a huge accomplishment because most players you see at the casinos are constantly pulling

money out of there wallets. Just like OZ,Papajoe,Way2fast had mentors when they first started playing.. You all are our mentors and we appreciate

every piece of advice you give us. 

 

Thank you !!!

 

I agree. 

[machine]

On 8/14/2016 at 9:12 PM, CT70 said:

Hey Guys,

 

It’s CT here.

 

I recommend 100 units of whatever your unit size is. I usually like to see some history in the shoe before I table bet. Ideally I want to see all SAP counts populated before I make my first bet, although it’s not mandatory.

 

Once I start to bet, I’ll start with half units until my score gets to 1. Then I will flat bet until I get to 2. At 2 units I will start my 1-2 loop, with a 1 unit bet. (More conservative than the 1-2 loop is the 2-3 loop (as Pando and Oz mentioned). If my score starts to go negative I will revert back to flat betting and even half units again if necessary. However, if I am finding myself going back to half units after I’ve already started my loop, then I will re-evaluate staying in the shoe.

 

Always wait 1 hand after 2 consecutive losses no matter what. It will keep you safer.

 

You must always be watching your score. When you are at -1, play carefully. At -3 or -4 you are already in trouble and should be really choosing your bets carefully. At that point your first priority is just getting even, don’t even think about trying to make money until you are back to zero. Don’t underestimate how much trouble you can get into. In baccarat things go from not so bad to ugly very quickly. Just because you have 100 units at your disposal, don’t go betting 2 or 3 units to get even quickly because that will put you in a bigger hole to dig yourself out of.

 

By the way, the 100 unit bank roll is more for peace of mind than anything else. If you get to minus 20 units in a day, you should quit and go home.

 

Here is some advice for the beginners: If you just lost 6 ($20) units in 3 different shoes, you are now down $360 (18 units). Call it a day and go home. Come back the next day when your mind is fresh. If you are a beginner and you just lost 3 shoes, I assure you, you are not going to be able to think straight to win it back. The urge to make bigger bets is overwhelming especially if you have the money at your disposal. Go home. Come back to the casino the next day. Break down your previous day’s loss into 2 or 3 shoes/seessions. Try to win 6 or 7 units per shoe and quit the shoe. Do this this 3 times to get your money back. Don’t try to make 18 units in one shoe, if you are a beginner, it ain’t gonna happen.

 

Stop loss: I don’t have a stop loss either but that doesn’t mean I am going to let my score go to -20…..lol  For beginners I recommend a 6 unit stop loss.

 

You should always try to pick the shoe with the strongest bias to make it easy on yourself. Moreover, if you are struggling in a shoe and you’re at hand 40 and you are only up 2 units, look to take your 2 units and quit the shoe. A win is a win. Go play another shoe. Sometimes we are so absorbed in the moment that we forget that we could just as well be playing another shoe that’s easier.

 

For all the beginners: Don’t give up because you keep losing at the casino. Instead try to play more shoes at home and learn to win on your kitchen table and it will be easier to win at the casino. My idea of playing voice recorded shoes is a free option for you. Use it. I am happy to email my recorded shoes to you. Don’t play those online computer generated hands, they are more suited to roulette not baccarat. Preshuffled cards are different. They are designed a certain way and you need to learn how to beat them.

 

Eventually you will get to a point where there will be few shoes that you lose to and it won’t matter anyway because you will recognize them when they appear and you will get out early. Moreover, your winning shoes will far outnumber your losing shoes. Your bankroll will be growing daily. Once you start winning, you will feel really good and confident (but don’t get cocky…lol). Little by little you will start increasing your unit size. Next thing you know you will be playing $100 units with confidence. This is not a fantasy guys. YOU can do this.

 

Once you’re at that level you will need to learn how to fly under the radar…..but that’s another day’s lesson…..lol.

 

By the way, if your casino offers you a casino player ID card, I would not get one. If you already have one, don’t use it.

 

In my local casinos most people have casino player cards with a bar code on the back. Every hour a casino hosts comes around and scans everyones card at the table. Every time your card gets scanned, you receive a 10 cent credit (big deal!) that you can use to purchase food, beverage and gifts. As a professional player you do not need the casino to know that you are playing everyday for several hours. The scan info winds up on some executives desk and they check to see who are the everyday players and they get curious. I know the dealers and managers recognize you but it’s not in your best interest for them to get to know you too well. Besides, as a pro you don’t need the 50 cents or so per day that they give you.

 

When anyone asks what you do for a living, make sure to tell them that you have a day job. The more important the day job, the less they suspect you’re a pro. Even though it's tempting, don’t advertise or brag to anyone that you make your living at baccarat.

 

CT70

 

 

 

 

 

Hello CT70 long time no see.

I recently started playing real games, NOR short term setups with SAP as a practice mode. I am playing the similar way you mentioned for beginners. Played several sessions it's going not bad. Your post is perfectly fit into my situation now as a beginner. This is such a priceless treasure I can't buy. I will keep reading your posts and other members as well. Busy studying practicing at home and some playing, I believe some time we could coincidentally encounter at the casino. I'd love to say hello to you. Appreciate your inspiration.

Machine

[machine]

On 8/4/2016 at 1:29 AM, brad01 said:

Here is how I might have played it

Banker SS

TBL / S40M1

S40 / opposites

 

I cant really say because its never the same as playing the real thing

I only flat bet because I still don't know when to hit a 1,2 reliably so I'm happy to flat bet and come out on top rather than hit a 1,2 at wrong time and lose.

The things I do that some people may not is I record banker and player events as separate lines but I can still see them together

Also the same with straight events and ZZ events

In a lot of ways its similar to what Oz says in his posts - I'm just looking for a bias to play

I am aware of MDB+ bets but more often than not I also use them to tell me not to bet - sometimes I play them

What I found is that sometimes Banker and Player are good to break up and look at separately and sometimes to look at together

Also the same with straight and ZZ events - sometimes good to separate and sometimes good to combine

Hi Brad

The way you countig separate p/b, ST/ZZ I think that's another great way looking at the shoe trend. I only do OR and SAP counts. I want to try your way and see how it goes.

Appreciate any input.

Machine

[brad01]

Yes it works for me

There is only a certain amount of information that a person is able to process between hands to make a decision.

You must decide what are the right variables to use and not use too many so it confuses you

But being able to track many variables of the game at once and pick which ones have trends you can use at the right times is the key I feel.

[machine]

On 2/5/2017 at 2:49 AM, brad01 said:

Yes it works for me

There is only a certain amount of information that a person is able to process between hands to make a decision.

You must decide what are the right variables to use and not use too many so it confuses you

But being able to track many variables of the game at once and pick which ones have trends you can use at the right times is the key I feel.

I understand your point. 4D was 4 column track during a game I think yours is less counting than 4D. I haven't tried it yet but will see would it be whether working in my playing style or not? 

I will implement some if it confuses me.

 

 

[machine]

On 8/3/2016 at 6:34 AM, avion said:

Great question Wolfat.......Simply, I NEVER start to play a shoe with any certain strategy or plan in mind.  What I look for in "reading and seeing the shoe clearly" is consistency. That could be consistent "walls", sporadics, 1's and 2's, 2's and 3's, 3's and 4's+.  If a shoe is inconsistent....I simply wait for the possibility that some consistency may develop.  Like Oz has emphasized one of the greatest things a seasoned player of the game can learn to do, handed down by Norm, is not to bet.  It takes a lot of time, work, and experience to learn when not to bet, and it is so worth it when you wanted to bet....but because of what you were seeing you decided not to bet.  Sure enough if you had bet, you would have lost.  That losing one unit bet that you didn't make, just put you one unit closer to achieving your win goal for that shoe, session, and day.   I will emphatically say, even if I only win one unit a shoe, I won that shoe.  It's more important to me to win consistently than how many units I won.  Many baseball games have been won and lost by the score of 1-0, including many extra inning games.  The guys on the losing team know they lost.  The guys on the winning team know they won.  That one unit bet, can literally mean the difference between winning the shoe, or not.

One of Pando's greatest strengths and skills, if he sees a shoe is not the type he wants, he doesn't play, and is disciplined to wait for the type of shoe he knows he will win.  That is such a powerful weapon in the skillset of "reading a shoe and seeing it clearly".  

I like your baseball winning score of 1-0 concept, win is a win and not losing is a winning in this game I think. Imagine if you could win 1 unit every shoe, that's hell of gooooooood money when you add up at the end of the month or end of year.

Great reference to the game discipline.