Charting in Baccarat

[jsintl]

Is charting really necessary in Baccarat?  I know that many people rely only from the tote board,  Is the tote board enough to know where the shoe is going.  I'm always charting in my play to guide me in my decision to bet or not to bet.

Comments are welcome.

 

[Pando]

I record my play to

1) Ensure my betting amount is correct (although its 90% flat betting)

2) To have a record of the shoe data as it finishes

3) To record my playing statistics (% win/loss etc)

I make my decisions mentally from the tote board

[brad01]

Mine is same as Pando's 2 and 3 above.

Mine flat bet all the way so don't need to remember amount

I do record some info but mostly look at tote board

I found when I was recording too much it took my mind off what was actually happening

[avion]

Great point Brad, and I know it sounds redundant, but too much is too much, and not enough isn't enough. 

[Pando]

add to 1) and to reconcile my bankroll

[brad01]

Good point Pando

Anyone who plays live will know the importance of knowing exactly how much you are up or down at any moment

 

[Pando]

Yes especially when there are Banker 6's which pay half in the shoe

I am meticulous with my physical money management

[Action Mike]

In addition to Pando's reasons, I'll add the following reasons for charting:

To remind myself I'm playing for profit, not playing for fun.

To later add the information into the StatsForProfits system.

[ECD]

I chart for many reasons.

1. To have a record of the shoe to enter the abbreviated shoe data in an ongoing excel sheet with all my other shoes, including unit results.

2. To keep track of unit wins/losses.

3. Categorize the shoe as easy or difficult for possible replay later.

4. To upload the shoe to stats for profits and record shoe number for recall later.

5. For some shoes I will make a voice recording of hand by hand results on my smart phone recorder to practice at a future date and share with fellow players.

6. I just started doing this. I'm using the find feature on excel to see which sequences are more popular than others.

For instance, I found from my data that a 221 (BBPPB) happens 70% of the time as opposed to a 222 (BBPPBB) which happens only 30% of the time. So when I see a 221, I bet opposite or wait. That play has a 70% hit rate. That is important information on a common sequence.

CT70

 

[brad01]

Some great hints and ideas there CT

I took a look at your 221 trigger last night and it won 2 of 3 in the shoe I was playing with an opposite

2 of 3 = 66.6%

Close to your recorded 70% average

 

[Pando]

This is a very useful observation by CT70, and now confirmed by Brad

I will be keeping an eye on these 221 plays when I am playing at the week end.

Thanks guys

[Baccman]

Didn't pay close attention of %, but i saw that 221 hits more often then 222, that was little wierd to me because i think that Norm trigger for OT was 221...but if you back up it with some recent history and SAP maybe it works better. Think that PJ can give some advice about this.

[brad01]

Could be totally dependant on the shoes you play or experience but I can say for me I appear to get similar results to what CT said

Its a great suggestion by Ct to break down short common series and record outcomes

[ECD]

Guys, please hold off on using the 221 trigger to play an opposite. One of our fellow players brought something to my attention that I hadn't realized when using the "find" feature in the excel program. I will let you know my findings in a few days. Sorry for the confusion. I will share what we find.

Thanks 

CT70

[Baccman]

What i really think is that there is no mechanical trigger that will give us better then 50% hit rate. To get better then 50% on any event you need to support it with some recent history.  Just my 2 c

[Pando]

OK guys, here is my data

I looked through 70 shoes (I agree not statistically many) and found the following;

221 occurred 51 (54%) times in those shoes, 222 occurred 43 (46%) times in those same shoes

Where there was 2221, I counted as both

I guess the jury is still out

 

 

[avion]

Respectfully and with great admiration for the work each person does, the viewpoint of a trigger percentage would be accordingly to the type of shoe.  Sometimes more, and sometimes less.  

Looking at the overall stats of numerous shoes and the current stats of the present shoe.

Edited September 22, 2016 by avion

[barneypip]

Hey even if the hit difference was "only" 54% for a 221 vs. 46% for a 222, isn't that enough to warrant a trigger?  With the house edge at only 1.3%, I'll take an 8% advantage any day! 

[brad01]

As Pando said his sample size of 70 shoes is not really enough to say and also they are from a specific casino where he plays.

 

 

[ECD]

4 hours ago, brad01 said:

As Pando said his sample size of 70 shoes is not really enough to say and also they are from a specific casino where he plays.

 

 

From what I've been noticing in my casino is, if the shoe is definitely an OTB4L shoe, then go with 222, if it's more of an S40 or non-OTB4L shoe, then go with 2211. If it's still early in the shoe and too early to tell, then look at your SAP count to see what's running higher 1s or 2s. Sometimes if it's early in the shoe though 1s and 2s are almost equal and too early to tell. If that's the case, just "wait it out" or bet tie only with a very small bet.

CT70