P.A.R.A.L.Y.S.I.S. by. A.N.A.L.Y.S.I.S.

[kachatz1]

                                                                              THE BEGININNING

Even with all the tools one needs to be successful, 

we are all frequently caught up in " the web of inability to make a choice" 

                                PARALYSIS ( by) ANALYSIS ( as relates to Baccarat) , is essentially what a new player, an inexperienced player, even an ExperiencedPlayer(!), or just a player with a very limited bankroll is faced-with when making a decision

                                                                               Player or Banker (?) 

(1) we are playing with REAL MONEY, so naturally the tendency is to " worry over the result"

(2) we are armed with innumerable stats, trends, tote boards, Systems, MM options, etc...in which case, we are OVERWHELMED with the tendency to " worry over the result"

(3) we lose a few decisions in-a-row, and we are ready to TOSS EVERYTHING WE HAVE LEARNED out the back door...again, our tendency to               " worry over the result"

                                                                  (of course, it's me, so you know I could go on-and-on...)

That Said...

I am suggesting you proceed as follows:

(a) so you do not become a victim of PARALYSIS ( in effect, " doing nothing" ) ,

(b) or OVER-ANALYSIS ( in effect, trying to analyze every possible angle to such a large extent, that you decide there is no possible answer, no possible next play, no possible favorable outcome which is GUARANTEED)

                   ,,,,,,,, Seems we need a relatively simple (and very attainable):

~ path to overcoming our fears,

~ guiding our results,

~ and making sure we profit from our decisions.

Why not? Let's do just that...( starting tomorrow...for now thinking you can ponder-anticipate how YOU WOULD WRITE THE SCRIPT)

 

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2017 by kachatz1

[kachatz1]

EXACTLY.

Our innate fear of being " challenged" by others out to show we are " wrong" , coupled with our fear of losing our bankroll, leads to Paralysis by Analysis.

( Hereafter, PBA)

in other words, we often forgo betting because we are afraid of losing that bet.

Here is an example I am sure you all will understand:

Convinced that the Banker will win the next hand, we bet Banker.

      - But , it's a TIE result, so now: 

-roughly 1/3 of us (33%) will " hold back" from making the next bet,

-roughly 1/3 (33%) will change their mind and bet Player,

- and roughly 1/3 (33%) will ignore the TIE and bet Banker again

Given that ties represent approximately 10% of all outcomes , naturally the next bet could result in a B, P or T " win" with about 45% chance for each of B or P, and 10% chance of a TIE

So roughly 33% of all Players, who so strongly believed in Bank just one hand ago, but now make NO BET, will have foregone their " opportunity to win" that second bet.

Yes, some would have won with a Banker outcome, and some would have lost with a Player outcome on that second bet, BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE that a change of strategy to bet B or P was called for, after that TIE

Why is this meaningful?

Because 66% of us have just allowed a meaningless happenstance ( That is, there is no hard-and-fast evidence that a TIE  accurately predicts the next hand's outcome) to get inside our head and impede our applying a " structured approach" ( strategy) to the game.

This is just one example of PBA. 

Of course their are others.

Which ones affect you most?

Edited March 22, 2017 by kachatz1

[trbfla]

Very good topic and great question Kevin. I would say my PBA happens the most when I'm trying to attain a win goal and lose thus making me now 2 units away from leaving and running to the cage. It is in that moment I second guess myself a lot. Then I'm frozen on the next play. Which usually results in another loss. Now I may have had plenty 2 losses back to back but when it happens close to a win goal and exit time......well that's my PBA

[ECD]

On 3/23/2017 at 5:01 AM, kachatz1 said:

EXACTLY.

Our innate fear of being " challenged" by others out to show we are " wrong" , coupled with our fear of losing our bankroll, leads to Paralysis by Analysis.

( Hereafter, PBA)

in other words, we often forgo betting because we are afraid of losing that bet.

Here is an example I am sure you all will understand:

Convinced that the Banker will win the next hand, we bet Banker.

      - But , it's a TIE result, so now: 

-roughly 1/3 of us (33%) will " hold back" from making the next bet,

-roughly 1/3 (33%) will change their mind and bet Player,

- and roughly 1/3 (33%) will ignore the TIE and bet Banker again

Given that ties represent approximately 10% of all outcomes , naturally the next bet could result in a B, P or T " win" with about 45% chance for each of B or P, and 10% chance of a TIE

So roughly 33% of all Players, who so strongly believed in Bank just one hand ago, but now make NO BET, will have foregone their " opportunity to win" that second bet.

Yes, some would have won with a Banker outcome, and some would have lost with a Player outcome on that second bet, BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE that a change of strategy to bet B or P was called for, after that TIE

Why is this meaningful?

Because 66% of us have just allowed a meaningless happenstance ( That is, there is no hard-and-fast evidence that a TIE  accurately predicts the next hand's outcome) to get inside our head and impede our applying a " structured approach" ( strategy) to the game.

This is just one example of PBA. 

Of course their are others.

Which ones affect you most?

 

 

Well said, Kevin...The Tie is a tough one sometimes for me...Despite knowing that statistically, the bet following a tie should remain the same bet...it can be difficult not to let it get inside my head.

Edited March 24, 2017 by ECD