Mad Dog on Blackjack

[Mad Dog]

I was hitting hard 17 yesterday and it worked out quite well. I do it during the low rounds. There was a crowd watching and they were going nuts. It was funny. I hit 18 once also, but I broke. I do this when I think there is no way to win the hand, and I can't surrender because I've already taken a hit card. I also do it when I am advantage betting and I'm on a low bet and I want to burn cards to draw a clump of tens closer. In that situation I have been known to hit 19. I used to do it head to head, betting $5 on the low bet and $500 on the high bet. Believe me when I tell you, that'll draw you some heat. I have never hit twenty, but I've wanted to. Maybe I just don't have the balls.

It takes me a while to get in the right game but it sure is fun when a game turns good. Yesterday I hovered with one pile of twelve for a while, sometimes making it to two, sometimes giving back. Then at one point the game turned good and just took off. I have heard Ellis remark on this. I think it has to do with the presence of an NBJ player at third. Maybe God or Ellis knows why this happens, but I sure don't.

I carry with me a little slip of paper with multiples of fibonacci numbers on it, and the eye in the sky called down to find out what it was. I was already showing it to the pit boss before they called, but I just said it's a progressive betting system, and said I'd tell them all about it if they wanted. They seemed ok at that point.

The reason I carry my little slip of paper is that things get very intense at the table and it starts raining money, and sometimes I don't raise my betting level on time. With my chart, I just count my money and look up the betting level. It tells me everything including how much to bet, and how much to lock.

I think that good communication with the floor staff is very important. The most important thing I want to hear from them is when to go easy. They chuckle when I say this, but NBJ+fibonacci will take me into orbit one day, and then they won't be chuckling. A little communication up front will go a long way later.

I tipped them 10% as usual. I was telling the pit boss that the reason I tip was that I was a guest and I wanted to remain welcome, and he said I was very generous and assured me that I was welcome. He said he wished more people thought the way I do (regarding tipping).

I am thinking I will tip 20% on really huge wins when they arise.

I tip the cocktail waitresses very well, and some of them are signed up to do recon for me. I talked to one of them yesterday and she seemed to understand the idea that when a table goes good it stays good for a while. It seemed to square with her experience. I just love having meaningful conversations with beautiful, scantily clad babes.

I also tip the casino host at check out time; they are comping me for everything. This tip is given discretely. I take a hundred dollar bill and fold it into a little square and palm it. Then I go to shake the host's hand, and voila.

I always tip the cage person something. I am looking for a way to tip the manager guy but I haven't figured out how to do that. Maybe the handshake thing will work there. I think having friends in the cage might be very helpful.

[Guest CarlosM]

I get so excited when I hear these stories. Especially from you! Awsome!!!

How many decks was that game? Vegas? What are their rules? Wash or no wash? Shuffle type? Pick size? Tight, regular or loose intertwine? Stripping or not? Penetration? Do they plug the cut off cards? If yes, how? Do they ever change the intertwine or pick size as shoes go on? For any reason? To change the game type to try to beat you? Or to break a player bias for the other players? If successful, do they resume to their standard intertwine and pick size?

[Mad Dog]

I was playing six decks against a "One-two-six" wheel type shuffle machine in Vegas. I wonder if they ever command the machine to shuffle differently. I think this would be a closely held secret. The cards are clumped. The other players say no way, since the machine purportedly shuffles continuously. But I, Mad Dog, tell you that they are clumped. It is what makes it possible for me to win. It is what makes the casino do unreasonably well against the other players. They want the cards clumped, and they are indeed clumped.

This casino does not seem to sweat my action. I do not see any countermeasures. They are curious about me, and sometimes ask questions. I always answer straightforwardly and forthrightly. I think this is the best policy.

Sometimes I can almost feel the deck turning good. I think maybe it has to do with the middle cards. I think that if they are clumped with the tens or the lows, then the game is not so good, but if they are clumped with each other, the game is good.

I left a good game when a fifth player arrived. I have learned the hard way that I can't do well at a crowded table.

Also, I have learned to switch to advantage betting when a group of players leaves the table. The clumping becomes too great to sustain the progression style of betting, but it is an easy victory with advantage betting as taught in NBJ.

[Guest chuck24]

I can recognize that this NBJ is counter to everything i've learned but can't imagine anyone hitting 19-20 when that's a winning hand most of the time.

Adv betting. Can you explain that some, or is it something super secret. I have read in various places that NBJ, is pretty good and also not so good. Then I read stuff like this and damn if i know who to blve. Anyway, guys, you tell it great and i hope it's really that way. I have really no reson to doubt you except from other things i've read. I'm sure you understand it gets pretty damn confusing. If any of you play downtown i'd sure like to watch you in action.

[Keith Smith]

I can recognize that this NBJ is counter to everything i've learned but can't imagine anyone hitting 19-20 when that's a winning hand most of the time.

Adv betting. Can you explain that some, or is it something super secret. I have read in various places that NBJ, is pretty good and also not so good. Then I read stuff like this and damn if i know who to blve. Anyway, guys, you tell it great and i hope it's really that way. I have really no reson to doubt you except from other things i've read. I'm sure you understand it gets pretty damn confusing. If any of you play downtown i'd sure like to watch you in action.

What they don't tell you a lot of times is we may play a sacrifice hand, one with the money and the other to feed the dealer the cards we want him to get.

[Guest chuck24]

Keith, that's new one too. Kinda unblvble in a way. I'd sure like to watch someone play this way. Care to weigh in on adv betting while you're at it? You don't have to give away any secrets just a description and why do you switch from one bet strategy to another? Sounds intriguing.

[Guest chuck24]

Maddog, i'd like to watch your action sometimes. i live in Vegas. If adv betting(whatever it is) so good, why not stick with it? Not critisizing, just trying to learn.

[Mad Dog]

Yes hitting 19 is extreme, and among NBJ players I am the only one that does it (that I know of). PLEASE understand that I only do this when the ratio between my high and low bets is EXTREME. Like 100 to 1. Don't let my extreme method bewilder you. The low rounds completely don't matter with a ratio like that. Nevertheless, sometimes I would hit 19 and draw the deuce, and people would go bananas, even though I only had $5 out. Then, those very same people would not be impressed at all when I would win $500 playing very conservatively on one hand because the tens had arrived.

The thing to remember is that I was winning the high bets. I would goof around with the low bets all I wanted. I would also surrender when I had a 20, and the dealer was showing a 6. Why? Because a clump of tens had arrived, and I wanted to stop cards from coming out of the shoe, end the hand, and raise my bet to $500. So when I surrendered, it was tactical retreat so that I could sock it to them on the high bet. Understand?

The conditions were head to head, extreme clumping etc. Please understand I did these aggressive things for a reason even if you don't understand completely what my reasoning was. In a broad sense, NBJ teaches us to react to the situation at hand. I developed this technique to handle a certain situation. It was devastatingly effective, and very flashy. A little too flashy as it turned out.

So in summary, I hit hard 17 when I am certain that the dealer has me beat, and I want to take a shot at the hand. I also hit 17, 18 and 19 when I am sacrificing a hand to set things up for a high bet on the following hand.

I did not read this in the NBJ manual, but the philosophy of NBJ is to do all things conducive for victory. I think my method is easily misunderstood by persons who don't understand the whole picture. Please try to understand that my bet spread was so high that it made the $5 bet negligible.

[Guest chuck24]

Maddog, no. 1, i don't see how you can get a spread of $5 to $500 and win without getting 86'd. I got 86'd several yrs ago by playing a little short count and little money. $5 to $20 spread and winning just a hundred bucks or so got me 86'd out of 3 casinos so don't see how you're flying under the radar especially making moves that would brand you as a counter whether you are or not.

Maddog says he didn't read the NBJ manual. I'd like to hear others' stories that did read the manual. And I'd like to witness some play, seems like i'm being avoided on this request.

[Mad Dog]

I am playing at the big strip casinos, and they let you play just about any bet spread you want.

I did indeed read the NBJ manual. The bizarre things I am describing are not in the manual; they were developed by me to handle certain situations. Please do not paraphrase me by saying I did not read the NBJ manual. Please read my posts more carefully.

I am open to you observing me in action sometime in the next month. I do not play downtown, I only play in the big name strip casinos, midweek. You can private message me with your contact info. Getting barred for a $100 win seems very odd.

[Guest chuck24]

Mad Dog, sorry i misread the part about you not reading the NBJ manual. I am, indeed wrong about that. Back in the 70's they barred just about everybody that they thght was counting. That's the way it was. It might be diff now that they are using the shuffling machines and they figure you can't count them. I'll let you know if it will be possible for me to get to the strip and when. Thanks for responding.

Are there any other successful NBJ players that would be willing to say how they are doing with the NBJ techniques?

[ECD]

You know, I just can't tell you how much I appreciate this thread. The whole thing is music to my ears. Chuck is asking the hard questions. He's got the gloves off. He wants to know! He's a great questioneer if you let me invent a word. But Mad Dog is a great player! Both are up to the task. Chuck, you can represent the doubting Thomases. Mad Dog can represent the NBJ players.

It does my heart good to hear BJ discussed, even argued, at this level. Listen to yourselves. Where else is BJ argued at such a high level of understanding of the real game.

I must confess. I did not teach Mad Dog personally. Wish I could take credit. I taught the infamous Ed Goldstein. Ed taught Mad Dog. But Mad Dog is one of those cases where the student surpasses the teacher.

I'm 67. I've got no one to carry the torch. Except, students!

Keep it up guys. You're doing great! Don't let this slide. Please! Give my life meaning! Let's kill those bastards. But, be nice about it. Gentlemen, deal the cards. Let's see who's really right! I know who my money will be on!

[Mad Dog]

When you do finally get convinced about the value of NBJ, you should commit yourself to a training regimen. Reading the manual is only the beginning. You MUST train yourself by playing at home with real cards. You deal cards to a number of imaginary players, and then to yourself. You play the hand, and bet in the way that is taught in the NBJ manual. WHEN YOU LOSE A HAND, you look at the cards on the table and try to spot clues that would have made you decide to play the hand differently. When you see an alternative play that would have helped you, try and remember it. When you have learned what you can from the hand, pick up the cards and put them in the discard pile and then deal another hand. Do everything the way they do it in your casino, including the wash, pickup, shuffle, etc.

This is the most valuable advice you will ever get on blackjack.

[Guest CarlosM]

Ellis taught me NBJ 7 years ago. I read that manual many times. To this very day, I still read the manuals. I do this not because I still need to learn NBJ or get it down pat. I read it still today because There is always something that you will be reminded of that you forget sometimes. I don't know of any blackjack manual or book that you still read 7 years later and still pick up something you forget sometimes. I read a book on card counting or basic strategy chart, one reading, maybee a couple readings, I have it TOTALLY memorized for the rest of my life. That can't be all you need to beat the casino or even become a full time professional! At home with my cards, I do excactly what mad dog does. NBJ tells you the same thing. I burn a card every half hour or so, that's for dealers changing. I plug excactly the way a specific casino does that I will play. Same wash, same box card order. Not all casinos box card order or the way they have it layed out for your inspection or approval is the same. Some have it, A-K, A-K, K-A, K-A. Some have it,

A-K, A-K, A-K, A-K. Some have it, K-A, A-K, K-A, A-K. See this last one. Just the way that casino has it arranged just made the low card clump 14 cards long. Based on calling lows here A-7. Where as the first example the low card clump is 7 long! I use the excact shuffle they use. The same pick size in each hand. Is it 1/4 deck picks. Is it 1/3, 1/2, 2/3, 3/4, 1 full deck. The intertwine I do as they do, for that casino. You will notice a different casino uses different picks, intertwines, shuffles, plugging. Is it a perfect or near perfect tight intertwine. Is it about normal. Is it loose or sloppy. Is it very sloppy like a new dealer or a tired one might do that you just have to laugh? I use the same penetration. If they strip the cards, I do at home. What kind of strip? Big? one cards by one cards or a few together at a time, or blocks? I play the players hand at home the way they actually do at that casino. Some play perfecr basic strategy, some play like scared chickens. Do players tend to jump in an out a lot? Do the same at home. What is usually the average number of players at a table at the time you plan to play that casino? Do the same with your home practice. I can go on forever! Everything you can learn so far about NBJ on this forum is just 5% or less or so, of everything you will learn with NBJ. The reason why not a lot of people or the majority know or use NBJ is because the internet wants to make sure NBJ gets a bad, false image. The casinos want this too. They want to keep getting rich. Who wants to become poor when you are rich? That would be devastaing. The casinos make sure to brain wash the public that card counting and basic strategy is the best way to play. Their gift store will even sell books on BJ. If it really worked, they would not have that book in their gift store. They even have dealers or who ever give FREE blackjack lessons right in their casino. Common,that's funny! They use the word FREE. Wow!

Just so you know, about 99% of all blackjack players a world wide play basic strategy, whether they card count or not. We, NBJ players are less than 1% of all world wide blackjack players. Their shuffles, tactics are aimed at beating the 99% basic strategy players, not us! Would they rather change evrything just to beat us 1% and lose to 99%? No! I know you are skeptical or by now, maybee confused. Just think of all these I have told you and compare that with other stuff you read on basic strategy and card counting. You will know in your heart which is the truth because truth will always appeal to your common senses whether you like what you are hearing or not. ALWAYS, in anything, blackjack or not, TRUST YOUR INTUITION!!! I'm tired. That's all I can type for now. You can ask me ANYTHING you want. OK?

[Guest chuck24]

Carlos, Mad Dog, thanks for your input. It sounds pretty complicated but oft times things sound more complicated than they are. If a beginner reads the NBJ manual and starts playing, about how many units would he be comfotable with in relationship to gambler's ruin?

Is this harder or easier than card counting?

If you're not counting or looking at the ratio of cards on the table how do you know when to raise and lower bets?

Thanks again.

[ECD]

Are there any other successful NBJ players that would be willing to say how they are doing with the NBJ techniques?

[ECD]

Carlos, Mad Dog, thanks for your input. It sounds pretty complicated but oft times things sound more complicated than they are. If a beginner reads the NBJ manual and starts playing, about how many units would he be comfotable with in relationship to gambler's ruin?

Is this harder or easier than card counting?

If you're not counting or looking at the ratio of cards on the table how do you know when to raise and lower bets?

Thanks again.

Chuck, Mad Dog, if I could butt in here for a second. First, stop talking in terms of gambler's ruin. That and "lifetime bankroll" are loser terminology. Card counting instructors use that terminology all the time and for very good reason. For us, losing is not an option. We don't go there to lose! Get that out of your head. You remind me of the 3rd base player. His wife comes up behind him and says "are you ready to go eat" He replys "right after I lose these chips." Now that's going to become his self fullfilling prophecy. Works every time. NEVER give yourself an excuse to lose. You will.

Card counting is easy to learn. I could teach a baboon to count 8 decks. +1-1

that's all there is to it. I learned to count down a deck in 13 seconds flat by simply keeping a deck of cards in the bathroom. But, it's tougher at the table than NBJ. Plus while you concentrate on keeping the count you miss the truly important stuff that's going on.

For example: You're at third. Your second card is a ten. The dealer has an Ace up. You insure. Why would you insure when every BJ book in the world tells you never insure because your odds of winning are only 4 in 13? You insure because OUR book tells you how to win on insurance. Since you are an NBJ Player trained by me you noted the frequency of tens following tens out of the dealer shoe. It was 50% of the time. Now that's a count that's worth while. And 50% or more is an extremely common occurrence esp in AC 8 deck. With me so far? Your second card is the card just before the dealer's hole card. It's a ten. The odds are 50 50 that the dealer has a ten in the hole. Insurance pays 2 to 1. Sometimes tens are following tens as much as 80%. What do you do in that case when your second card is a ten against a dealer Ace up. Simple, you insure the whole damn table! Your odds are 80%! It pays 2 to 1. Nobody else is going to insure. Why? Because they read the wrong damn book. That's NBJ baby! Am I telling you too much? Hell no! We've got a million tricks just like that one. Some of them will blow your mind just like that one did.

How do you know when to raise or lower your bet? At third base it is automatic. We play third in random cards. The third base players cards are most like the dealer's of any seat at the table because you got both your cards just before the dealer got hers. You bet a 3 bet progression. Why because YOUR odds of losing 3 in a row against like cards is less than anyone else at the table. Or you could go by your card counting book that tells you it doesn't matter where you sit. Their book is right. It DOESN'T matter where THEY sit because they can't PLAY. WE CAN! And it matters a whole hell of a lot where WE sit.

At first base we simply have two bets Hi and Low. We play first when the cards are clumped. Why? Because we bet High in High tens ratio and Low in Low tens ratio. How do we know if we didn't count? BECAUSE we just watched the last 5 cards out of the shoe before our card is dealt. They were the last 5 cards in the prior round. Was it high or low? 100 times more accurate than card counting because you are using CURRENT information. Is it cheating? No! It just seems like it. Sometimes we get to laughing like a blithering idiot over there at first. Nobody can figure out what we're laughing at. They call us things like Mad Dog!

Is it hard? No. It's all common sense math. Real math, not ignorant card counting math that teaches you stupid things like never insure. Clowns!

Does it take time? Yes, and the more the better. Because you get out of it exactly what you put into it. Got any more excuses?

How's that Mad Dog, Carlos, Charlie? Am I telling him like it is, or what?

[charr]

Hi Ellis, MadDog, Carlos, Keith,

You are telling it like it is Ellis!!! I've been playing NBJ/WCB for more than 16 years and I can honestly say now that the only time I lose is when I go outside of regular disciplined NBJ play. It's bizaar, I usually play text book NBJ and win, I try another method or get cute (or tilted -usually about something else) and lose, everytime! But I have learned the only way one can, at the tables in real casinoes with real money and real conditions! If I did not play NBJ I would not play at all, period.

Ellis, maybe here or over in the private forum we can discuss pro play. I am now considering going pro with this for my sole income and would like input on this pursiut.

[ECD]

Absolutely Char and thanks for the great post! You know, These guys see so much crap on the internet these days, they just don't know which way to turn. We were doing this before the internet was invented. Back then I could simply say "Ask any dealer". NBJ was required reading for every dealer back then and many dealers played NBJ. We were all marked players. But today just when NBJ conditions have improved to an all time high the casinos have taken their eye off of us. Who could ask for a better situation? I don't blame you for considering going pro. I wish I was 20 years younger. I'd do it again!

[Guest chuck24]

Mr. Davis, Gambler's Ruin is very real. If you have too short a br for the bets you make then "GR" will surely get you. If you have $100 and make $20 bets the GR will get ya. It's very real. You should have some idea of how many units one would need to survive the ups and downs of real play. I find it hard to believe you're unwilling to discuss br at all. It does come into play. If you can win 100% of your hands it doesn't matter but i'm sure you don't. BR considerations are important and not just to card counters.

You're right. Card counting is eassy, UNTIL you get into casino live play. Then it's very difficult. At least that was my experience. I haven't played BJ in yrs because of the way they were afraid if card counters and started all this "fancy" shuffling and now the machines makeit impossible to count cards. So your method may be the last resort ofthose that want to win.

[Mad Dog]

I think what Ellis is saying is that NBJ players have a devastating advantage when properly trained.

Here's how you figure out how much money you need when you enter the casino.

Read the NBJ manual, and do your home training with real cards. Simulate everything including betting. You will begin to learn what your abilities are, and as you train, your abilities will improve.

Some players are simply going to be better than others. I think the reason for this has to do with the fears we bring with us to the table. Some people are afraid to hit even when the situation calls for it. Some players are afraid to raise the stakes. Training can help with this, but some people just can't push that big bet out, even when the situation calls for it. These fears will blunt your advantage. Know yourself through home practice. Know your limitations, and your skill level, and how much money you need to bring to the casino.

My method of play is extremely aggressive in the sense that I do not back off. I demand the table produce the cash, or take my buy in. In the NBJ manual there is a spectrum of betting methods, and I only use the one that is used to exploit the best games. In this way, I use that betting method as a "shit detector." If the table is shit, I find another game. If I am winning, I stay and make a killing. Most people can't play this way because they care too much about the table buy in money. I seek good winning tables and I value time, because when I find a good table I can do very well.

There is room for personal style within the context of NBJ. You will find yours.

[ECD]

Mr. Davis, Gambler's Ruin is very real. If you have too short a br for the bets you make then "GR" will surely get you. If you have $100 and make $20 bets the GR will get ya. It's very real. You should have some idea of how many units one would need to survive the ups and downs of real play. I find it hard to believe you're unwilling to discuss br at all. It does come into play. If you can win 100% of your hands it doesn't matter but i'm sure you don't. BR considerations are important and not just to card counters.

You're right. Card counting is eassy, UNTIL you get into casino live play. Then it's very difficult. At least that was my experience. I haven't played BJ in yrs because of the way they were afraid if card counters and started all this "fancy" shuffling and now the machines makeit impossible to count cards. So your method may be the last resort ofthose that want to win.

Chuck, you completely miss my whole point. What I'm trying to tell you is that if you plan to lose, you will. I'm not unwilling to discuss anything. It's more the opposite. You know many NBJ players are x card counters. They are always the hardest to teach because first I have to unbrainwash them. That, for some, is an overwhelming hurdle. I'm hoping you aren't in that category.

Of course gambler's ruin is real. That is why we avoid it at all costs. Avoiding it altogether is far better than planning for it. They didn't teach you how to do that. We do. You are taught that it doesn't matter what day of the week you play, what time of day you play, what table you pick, what table position you play or what the table stakes are as long as you have the money, lot's of it. All of that is wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Each of those things are CRITICAL criteria for a pro. If you continue to play like that you'd better plan for gambler's ruin because you are headed straight for it, do not pass Go. That is pure amateur crap. When you sit down to a table you have no earthly idea of whether you are going to win or lose. We do! We don't sit down at a table we haven't checked out thoroughly. If we don't see favorable winning conditions we leave. It's not worth playing an unknown situation or, more likely, a known bad situation. We leave those for the card counters. They don't know any better because they weren't taught any better. It's not their fault. It's their instructors fault. I don't blame you, I blame your instructor. He made my job 10 times harder.

Example; pick your table, any table you want in the whole casino. Use ALL of your card counting talents to pick the table. Let's say its 7PM on a Friday night at a big casino. Ok let me ask you a few questions about the table you just picked. Is it a nickel table? If yes, you lose. Is it a dime table? If yes, you lose. But, you say I can't afford higher stakes. That's funny because I can't afford nickel or dime tables on a Friday night at a major casino. And neither can you because they are unbeatable. Nobody can beat them and nobody can afford to play a table they have no chance of beating. Why can't they be beat? It's in your manual. They didn't teach you that in card counting school? Geez it must have slipped their mind. Or maybe they plain and simple just don't know what every NBJ player and every dealer in the world knows. Stay away from low stakes in a crowded casino! NEVER!

Next question: What is the dealer break ratio at the table you picked? Don't know? Every hand in basic strategy is based on a 28% dealer break ratio. If she is breaking at 15% or less which is highly likely on a Friday night, you can't beat her because every hand you play is computed WRONG! I maybe could but I wouldn't be fool enough to try. I only play games I KNOW I can beat. They didn't teach you that? Gee, it must have slipped their mind, AGAIN.

Next question: What is the clumping ratio. What's that? What is the frequency of tens following tens? Don't know? Then you don't know whether you want to play First or Third. If you knew just that alone, you would increase your odds of winning at least 10 fold. And that is just the beginning of what you need to know to have any assurance of winning.

Are you catching my drift? Here I am teaching you point by point one of the top secrets in BJ, how to win big time and every time at insurance and all you want to do is totally ignore that and talk about gambler's ruin. Where is your head at? You are fixated on losing. They did that to you.

Look I played BJ full time pro in AC for 3 years at the very same time Kenny Houston played there full time. I NEVER had a losing day. Kenny never had a winning day. He quit the game, moved to Asia and drank himself to death. He's the best player card counting ever produced. He needed your sermon on gambler's ruin. I don't. I know how to avoid it. He didn't.

Now, do you want to talk about stupid stuff or do you want to learn how to beat this game with NO risk of ruin?

The first thing you have to do is clear your mind of everything you have ever been taught about BJ. It is ALL wrong. Start with a clean slate. Open your mind and we'll teach you the secrets of how to beat this game. We'll teach you how to give the casino no chance at all. We'll teach you exactly how they cheat and how to use their own cheating against them. Deal?

[Guest CarlosM]

Hi Charr! Yes, there is a private BJ forum on here. We could all talk about anything, going Pro, etc... I will private message you the password.

[Guest chuck24]

Mr. Davis, I can't blve you think that someone asking about proper br is stupid stuff., It has nothing to do with planning to lose and everything to do with planning to win by having proper br. You wouldn't go in with 2 units would you, 3? All i'm asking is how many units br would you be comfortable with in playing your method and i can't get a straight answer!

[ECD]

I can't believe I'm wasting time arguing with some rookie who has no idea of what he's talking about.

Sensible cash mgt has nothing to do with ruin. It's a given. I posted our whole cash mgt philosophy here before more than once. Look it up.

We buy in at 12 units. We never take our wallet out at a table. That's a sign of a rank amateur. We might leave before 12 units if we don't like what we see but we never give a table more than 12 units. Of course we don't sit down at all untill we have thoroughly checked the table. Before we play, we know the DRB the dealer break ratio, the CR, clumping ratio. We selected first or third according to the CR. We know the dealer's first card 1O 's ratio. Is she getting more than the mathematical 4 in 13. If its Friday or Saturday night, she WILL be. Is she breaking mostly on high ups or lo ups. We always know exactly how to play her before we sit down. Now if all that fails, you made an error in your table selection. Identify your error, correct it and try again. If you make a second error you are not fit to play that day. Go home!

Assume you don't error. Ok our first objective is to make 3 piles of 12, not counting our buy in pile. Once we achieve that we must check our condition to play further as well as the table condition. Particularly the last pile. Was it easy or hard. Do we feel ok? Do we want to double the stakes for the next 3 piles. And the same after the next three piles.

But assume you did make the double error and went home. Now, if on your next trip you make the double error again, you don't know what you are doing. You need to either go back and study untill you find out what you are doing wrong or you need to select a different hobby, golf, sailing, because you certainly can't play BJ.

You don't think in terms of gamblers ruin because you don't go anywhere's near that far. If you gave the game 48 units, that's it. You aren't prepared. Either go back and study for a couple months or quit. If 48 units breaks you then you had no business playing at those stakes. That was your first mistake.

So if you don't trust yorself with money, only take 2 buy ins with you. In fact if you don't trust yourself with money either find youself another teacher or another hobby. You don't belong in a casino.

Now, once you prove to yourself that you are a player and you've made yourself 20 or 30,000 by winning consistently, you can loosen up a little IF YOU MUST. But starting out, you need to follow these rules religiously.

Now, once you make your first pile of 12 you CAN'T lose because you capture your buy in pile. See, if you get all the way back to your first pile either the game isn't fit to play or you aren't fit to play.

That's it, that's how we play. We are extremly rigid. We do not take risks.

Now, if 48 chips is anywhere near ruin for you you need to build up an adequate bank roll. Carlos roofed houses. Or we can teach you how to play no rent first base. You can build a Bank roll of 60 - 80 units pretty darn quick that way. Why so much? Because if it turns out that you are not a player we don't want you to walk away broke. But the first thing YOU have to do is get all that crasy amateur teaching out of your head and start thinking like a pro. You've got to think like a pro before you can become a pro.

If you think you can do that, fine. If not, there are plenty of shiester card counting teachers out there that will tell you exactly what you want to hear. Me, I'll keep telling you the truth. There are no card counting pros. I doubt if you can find one that's even ahead for the year after expenses. I couldn't and I know hundreds of them.

Now I'm not accustomed to arguing with rank amateurs or anybody else for that matter on the subject of BJ. I already proved myself in the casino. You haven't. So if you still want to argue, please, do it somewhere else. No body here has time for it. The people hear are serious players and serious students and you are taking up their teacher's time. That they paid for.