A tough game for NBJ.

[Guest CarlosM]

The game a casino likes best is a game completely random, no patterns, no clumps, no trends, no tells, tens ratio or high card ratio are normal or random, also at the same time dealer biased or extremly dealer biased. This way they still beat card counters and basic strategy players because of the strong dealer bias, even though the cards are random. And they beat NBJ players because of both the dealer bias and eliminating NBJ's advantage. So, what is suggested to beat these games? Just a thought! They can even have the above game with 1 or 2 rounds anywhere in that game that has lows or highs run long just for that 1 or 2 rounds, then rest of shoe completely random and dealer biased.

[ddbcinti]

Carlos, so is there a way to beat a tough game like this? Or would you just walk away and find an easier game?

[aegis21]

Do I hear Dionne Warwick??? 'Walk on by, just walk on by '

I would walk and find another table, another casino. Does it make sense to beat your head against a dealer bias, no matter what the reasons are that it is dealer biased? If conditons are such that the casino is dealing random cards then all the tables won't be dealer biased. The cards don't know who is dealing! Basic strategy and a good dealer breaking game should be possible to find if all games are random. I hope this helps.

[Mad Dog]

When we say a game is biased, we are also saying that the cards are not random.

[aegis21]

The game a casino likes best is a game completely random, no patterns, no clumps, no trends, no tells, tens ratio or high card ratio are normal or random, also at the same time dealer biased or extremly dealer biased.

I was looking at this entry with my response. A game can be random and dealer biased. But not all the tables in a casino can be random and dealer biased. The cards do not know who is dealing...

[Mad Dog]

Well... the cards can be "kind of random" in a biased game. Which means they are really not random.

[Zenwin]

Somehow I understand what Carlos means by a game that is 'random' and dealer biased. The casino where I play is the best maker of such games. I have thought about it a lot since my last play ( refer to Pissed off players ). Those games were in fact very dealer biased. It seemed 'random', it didn't have much clumps and 10s were always here and there. Sometime I could get a read on the hold cards, but it didn't matter how I played at 3rd base, the dealer still won. What I also found, if I misplayed one round (with hand that I should have played NBJ but I played BS instead) and the dealer won over the table. From there on I would keep getting those class B hands, like forever. I needed to stop playing a few hands and watch for a better chance to get back again.

Since my last play, I've read 'shuffles machine and random cards' and tried to simulate the shuffle to produce cards liked our casino. I guess I have got it. Now I have games here like what we discuss, and I'm not wining !! I have played 2 shoes this evening, with 1-2-3 prog, and I'm also behind. I am just wondering now of how to get rid of these biases, beside ruin these cards and start new. I guess in real casino play we'll have to walk away. What else we can do ? Any suggestions ?

Zenwin.

[Guest CarlosM]

Dealer biases develop in random or clumped games. The lower the player number, below 5, the quicker it can randomize. Second, a bias develops when the player number stays that number and players don't leave or enter the game. That's why they have the no mid shoe entry sign, so they can keep the player number from changing or changing to quickly. A bias is developed by play only. You can have clumped cards with no bias. New cards can be clumped or random but, new cards do not have a bias! That's why when Ellis played the Bahamas Team Play, every so many shoes 2 players would leave the game then after so many shoes again, the 2 players would re enter. They did this because a bias would eventually re appear due to maintaining the same player number for X number of shoes!

[ECD]

Yes, a game can be random giving up virtually no tells. That is the best possible game for NBJ Third base 146. However, at the same time it can be strongly dealer biased. That is not the strongest game for the casino but just wait a while and it will turn into the strongest game: Clumped and dealer biased.

You have two choices when the casino is full of such games: Go home or break the dealer bias. The first choice is the better one. But this is why we have been discussing the ways to break dealer biases.

But my question is how did you end up in that predicament? You would have to completely ignore your In Search Of Manual. It was designed to keep you out of exactly that kind of fray. I can understand Zinwin who has little choice, but what were you doing there Carlos? You know better.

NBJ is not about beating tough games. It's about avoiding tough games and beating easy games. In BJ overconfidence is a fatal sin. It is to be avoided at ALL costs. There are no parts of the manual you can take for granted no matter how good you get. Its the other way around. The better you get the more you avoid tough games. You were asleep at the switch. Why?

I already told you why. You were playing someone else's money, weren't you? That's the only way I can see YOU, of all people, making such an amateurish mistake. I NEVER play someone else's money. It is impossible to do that and still play YOUR game. You can't help but let the fact influence your judgement and your play, no matter how hard you try. The real Carlos would have walked away. The real Carlos would not have been there in the first place. The real Carlos would have been there much earlier. New cards have no dealer bias. You KNOW that. You've walked out of many casinos W/O playing a hand BECAUSE you know that. Why didn't you this time? Because it was not your money. Don't ever make that mistake again. Now, you know. We learn more from bad experiences than good ones. Let this be a lesson learned. The hard way!

[Guest CarlosM]

Not only that. I even broke all the rules of NBJ. I didn't even test the water in my table entries. I think that trip was my record for most tables entered and not winning. Almost always I win in my first table entry, after testing the water. But I always fing a winning game that I stay in by my second or third entry. I never need to use all 50 units of my bankroll. I was even playing like I did when I first played NBJ, afarid, unsure, not making NBJ plays because of being swayed by the basic strategy players at my tables. I got rid of that habbit years ago! I can't even remember the game types I was in. I didn't even track the signauture during my games. Couldn't even tell you what up card she broke on most or how long the clumps were. I had many good reasons for why I shouldn't have played that day. Two hours of sleep impaired my judgement. It was late in the day. They became extra crowded due to the concert there. Not my own stakes and I was warned it being too risky and all the reasons why. Not only did I destroy my reputation with that person. I also destroyed their confidence and beleif in NBJ.

[ECD]

That makes 17 mistakes! Your quota is only 16. That's what happens when you play someone else's money. You just exaggerated it a little. But don't worry about it. I'll see if I can get Zenwin to help you.

[Zenwin]

Oops,

I've been contemplating on how to reply this.

Since my biggest fear is 'losing', therefore any indication of 'I'm about to' I'll quit right away. For I 'm not confident enough to play.

So I think this time, Carlos, you were over-confident. And due to past victories, you were not prepared for this war.

Somehow I appreciate greatly that you told us. I could see even YOU could lose if you don't practice what we learned. This would be a lesson for all of us to remember.

Well, just let that be a lesson and I am sure you will be back to the real Carlos soon, the next time.

[ECD]

Ha ha ha holy shit! Guess what guys. I'm famous! I just got a call from Keith at 6;30 AM so I knew he was excited about something. You know that new BJ movie coming out supposedly about the Mit BJ team, well beatthecasino got a special invitation to the opening premier so Keith went. Now that's pretty strange already isn't it? Why would we get an invitation? But then the movie started and Keith saw immediately why we got an invitation. The movie starts with an exact replica of MY BJ seminar. Yep! Shell game and all!

For the few of you who never attended an E Clifton Davis BJ seminar, I started every seminar off with the shell game. I did this to demonstrate the difference between SURFACE MATH that every card counting book uses and DEEP MATH which NBJ uses. Yep, they stole my whole idea and started their movie with it. How's that for coincidence. If you think that's coincidence I've got a bridge in Brooklyn I wanna sell ya. Then, they send us an invitation for the premier. Shit, how about paying us for the start of their movie!

I don't mind. Everybody copies NBJ these days because it is the best. I always said that there is something awfully familiar about what that MIT team is doing. Mad Dog?

[ECD]

Sorry Zenwin I got a little carried away there! You are exactly right. EVERYBODY has a bad day sooner or later. But some good can come of it. Rather than cry over spilt milk we need to use this as a teaching tool and Carlos needs to learn from a big mistake. I think I should give Carlos first crack at this. Carlos, see if you can list item by item everything you did wrong. You go first, then I'll go.

[Zenwin]

I'm excited about seeing this movie-'21'. It will be showed on March the 28th at the theater. Ellis, what do you think the casino will react to this film ?

[ECD]

I think the casinos will love it. After all, it pushes card counting and the casinos know they already have that beat. I don't think it should worry us in the least.

[Guest CarlosM]

Ok! Here we go.

Mistakes: Never play the casino when they are at their best or when you are at your worst. I went with the crowd and not away from them. I went at the worst time and a night that had a big concert!

Never play when you don't feel your best. You're not your best when you are tired, lack of sleep, sick, angry, something is bothering you.

Never play with scared money. That would be playing with all the money you have, money for food, rent and bills, and someone elses money.

Always test the water.

Never let your guard down.

Don't get over confident. Don't get discouraged either.

Play new cards. New cards can be either in the first or third base window, or both or none. But, new cards do not have a dealer bias.

catch all peculiarities in your game.

Never betray your stop loss.

I made ALL these mistakes.

Also, don't let your ego enter into the game.

Freddy Mercury of QUEEN always said you are only as good as your last performance. That's because the last or latest show is what is most vivid in peoples minds. So, my last show I showed someone how good I am or not. Even though I know how amazing all my play trips were before this one, he wasn't there to see it. He was only there for my most recent last show. That's the only one he saw. It's the only one he will remember! Ellis?

[ECD]

Actually, that was excellent! You're back! Happy Easter

[Mad Dog]

The MIT team's methods were:

1. Have a whole shitload of card counters watching a large number of tables.

2. Signal the entry of the Big Player when the count was high enough.

3. Signal the Big Player what the count is upon table entry. (Sometimes the BP was an unskilled gorilla and they did the math for him and signaled everything to him.)

4. Perform long division in their heads to turn the count into a true count.

5. Bet according to the true count.

6. Play according to a basic strategy chart. (I had a copy of it at one time. It was unremarkable except that certain plays called for the player to do things according to suit sometimes.)

7. An elite part of the team used sophisticated shuffle tracking techniques that I can explain if you want.

They would wait for a very high count, like +18. The tens really do need to come out when the count is +18, so the BPs caught a lot of tens.

The thing is this: Why do all this team crap? The team lost money at one point and subsequently fell apart. Also the investors hired a second team which led to infighting with the first team.

Why not be a lone wolf like Mad Dog? I have had many conversations with pit bosses and they always say "as long as you're not playing with a team, we'll let you play." Mad Dog does not need investors or squadrons of card counting scouts. I play NBJ because it is superior to card counting.

Private detectives were constantly hounding the MIT team. They used secret identities etc. What a pain in the ass.

John Chang, the mysterious Mr. M, could not hold his team together. Some broke off on their own.

[Guest CarlosM]

Explain their shuffle tracking techniques? Also, Before they lost money, how much did they win and how many people were involved in this win? How much did they lose. After all that, were they still up? Were they able to pay the investors back? 1 Million? After paying back the investors, if they did, were they still up, if they were up? Even if you have a +18 count and start betting big and say the Tens do come out. How can they ever know who on the table does not get the tens? How do they know if they will get a first card ten and then a second card low? How do they know the dealer will not get 2 Tens? So, to me, all that counting is useless anyways? Explain their shuffle tracking technique. Also explain THEIR basic strategy?

[Mad Dog]

> Explain their shuffle tracking techniques?

You should call me dude. It's kind of involved. They used key card memorization, and also learned to cut the cards precisely so that they knew the exact position of a single ace or ten. They steered the ace to their BP and they steered the ten to the dealer hit card.

> Also, Before they lost money, how much did they win and how many people were involved in this win? How much did they lose. After all that, were they still up? Were they able to pay the investors back? 1 Million? After paying back the investors, if they did, were they still up, if they were up?

> Even if you have a +18 count and start betting big and say the Tens do come out. How can they ever know who on the table does not get the tens? How do they know if they will get a first card ten and then a second card low? How do they know the dealer will not get 2 Tens?

Well sometimes it worked out and sometimes it didn't.

> So, to me, all that counting is useless anyways?

No I wouldn't put it so, but I think our methods are superior.

> Also explain THEIR basic strategy?

As I mentioned it is unremarkable.

[ECD]

M.D. You could just as well be talking about the Ken Uston Teams. They used true count also and ended up the same way. Ken Uston quit BJ altogether and drank himself to death in Asia. I knew a lot of the guys on those teams and many became NBJ players.