Moved to Green today

[Audionut]

So PJ your saying the "correct" way would be your ZZ #2, right??

[ECD]

YEP!

According to MVS rules that is correct. And Andrea confirmed it.

It makes better sense that way, because you are confirming that it is a real zigzag pattern as opposed to a sporadic 1..

PJ

[MVSeahog]

Andrea, or MVS,

One question comes up.

Do we junp on straight runs and zigzag runs the same? I mean are we counting zigzag runs correctly.

Are we talking about a zigzag pattern of 3 counting the end of a straight run as the first zigzag so BBPB would be a zigzag run of 3, (a single 1 is a zpgzag pattern of 3), or are we talking about 3 1's in a rows?

I know a ZZ run counted correctly starts where the straight run ends, but I just wanted to be sure we are doing it like you do. For our testing we need to all do ZZs the same way.

PJ

PJ,

When I posted up the very first message, I made sure to make a note that I started the ZZ run after the three singles (B23111x) or a ZZ run of 4 in BTC notation.

I play it as shown in graphic #2.

MVS

[ECD]

Yeah, I went back and found it. I don't know how I missed it before. It's a clear as day!

I've got it now by golly!!

PJ

[MVSeahog]

All,

Today's casino trip was work. TomM posts up some of his difficult trip to BetPx and BOC.

Although the day was eventually good, it was an ugly ride all the way.

First shoe didn't stay positive until hand 63!! and just barely made +5.

Second shoe I figured TB4L might be the better start and got hit right off the bat. Had to change to RD1 at hand 33 and it eventually finished at +2.

Third shoe finished at +8 with a final flurry of wins and ran that one all the way with the MVS plan.

Hey, a winning session is a winning session. Should it really be this much work !! :alcoholic:

MVS

Shoe #1

B121113111122111

P111612111221

B211241531

B143111

Shoe #2

P2212341131

B1311132251

B11131215221

B21122

Shoe #3

B112111211225

B251231411

P11121311111222

B21442121

MVS

[Baccplay]

Hi MVS,

You said the 100 shoes that you've tested is wagered based on 1, 2, 3 Skip, do you use M2 or you only go to 2 when you lose a 1? Also, is the 100 shoes tested is solely mechanical? Can you please post the rules that you used for your testing.

Thanks so much,

Baccplay

Edited January 25, 2010 by Baccplay

[MVSeahog]

Hi MVS,

You said the 100 shoes that you've tested is wagered based on 1, 2, 3 Skip, do you use M2 or you only go to 2 when you lose a 1? Also, is the 100 shoes tested is solely mechanical? Can you please post the rules that you used for your testing.

Baccplay

Baccplay,

The wagers go 1,2,3 Skip. The bets stay at 1 until a loss. After 4 wins in a row, a slight winning progression. The shoes are run about 90% mechanical as described several times in this thread.

I just went back and blew the entire day "retesting" the shoes to make sure I did them correctly, as in, how I would play in the casino. +6 in the first column continues into the second column. If it continues to win, I'll keep bumping up the "bottom level" for the stop loss. If the progression falls back to +6, it gets one more attempt to move up and then quits the shoe at +5. If I'm still struggling by the third column, +6 becomes the new target no matter what. This is my normal play method on the green table.

MVS

Edited January 25, 2010 by MVSeahog

[MVSeahog]

Gentleman,

Testing continues at an accelerated pace these days. Casino trip tomorrow morning (Friday).

Sitting on 131 live shoes completed.

110 wins 21 losses. Net units = +843. Running at 84% win rate but the last 30 shoes inclusive have dropped to 77%.

I do have the data now broken down for every 50 shoes as an indicator of whether or not this winning % will continue at this rate and watching each batch of 50 should help point to that.

An update will follow on Friday night after the casino session.

MVS

[wolfat]

Hi MVS,

I'm actually playing your system too: 29 live shoes played and I'm 86% of winn. shoes.

Just a question: do you track ZZs and 3s to know wether doing the 3rd bet on the run or not?

ciao

andrea

Edited January 29, 2010 by wolfat

[MVSeahog]

Hi MVS,

I'm actually playing your system too: 29 live shoes played and I'm 86% of winn. shoes.

Just a question: do you track ZZs and 3s to know wether doing the 3rd bet on the run or not?

ciao

andrea

Andrea,

Yes I do. Along with the requisite SAP charting, I will at least keep track on the side of the card somewhere, to let me know how many of those "3" wagers lose on the start of the ZZ. Nothing set in stone, but if it's been winning the last 5 times it came up, I'll probably keep doing it that way.

MVS

[MVSeahog]

Well, here's the Friday casino report for MVS+

Got to the casino EARLY. What the heck was my wife thinking? Something about meetings that we all had later tonight so we had to be done, fed and home before dark. Oh well, got that done.

Also learned that the new card prep is done at 11am as I got to watch it.

First shoe went reasonably well. Played according to the rules, mechanical early and out at hand 20 with a +6. This was because it hit +6 three times in the first column so I figured I would take the win and see if the second shoe would play out a bit better. That shoe would have finished at +10 had I continued.

Second shoe was just ugly, nasty and was one hand away from a big loss. Luckily the defining hand was a winner and I could limp forward, hoping for the best. It was -9 at hand 20. It bumped -11 twice in the second column (one strike away from a bailout) and recovered to +5 by hand 49. Figured I'd give it one more try and it lost hand 50 so I was out of there with a very happy +4, considering where it had been 25 hands earlier.

Third shoe was AFTER the card prep. I think I'll be showing up for the 11am session more often.

As nobody was at the table and I wasn't in any hurry, we just talked about various casinos until the prep was done. Still nobody at the table so I had to "buy in" to get it started. Betting both Player and Bank and three bank wins later ($3.75 in vig) and I could start playing.

The shoe starts B46143311 and I'm done! +10 running the standard MVS+ and I was done. This could have continued on but sitting on a +12 at hand 21, I elected to take two more tries to bet it up to +15. Both bets lost and I made the trailing stop win of +10.

So, one more time, it was a good session and a tidy +4, +6 and +10 for the morning's work.

On the way home I ran that last quick shoe (23 hands) in my head under RD1 (+3) and TB4L (+8) so for the time being I'm thinking that using the OTB4L as the start is still the good choice.

MVS

Edited January 30, 2010 by MVSeahog
Graphic

[wolfat]

Andrea,

Yes I do. Along with the requisite SAP charting, I will at least keep track on the side of the card somewhere, to let me know how many of those "3" wagers lose on the start of the ZZ. Nothing set in stone, but if it's been winning the last 5 times it came up, I'll probably keep doing it that way.

MVS

Tx MVS, so do I;

just noticed that often guessing is more dangerous than having a fixed procedure. For that I'm considering to bet always 1 OTR (3 in a row/2 1s confirmed) with no tracking. At least, after several losses, I can decide to increase JUST that bet.

[wolfat]

Hi MVS,

could you post a recent scorecard?

tx

andrea

[MVSeahog]

Andrea,

Today is your lucky day. I had planned on screwing around with the graphics area here in the forum and that was a perfect segue into posting up this picture!

It's the last shoe of the day in which I quit with a +10 because I set that as the decade stop for that particular series.

The flow starts with the usual wait for 3 hands at which time you just jump on to that streak until it loses. As we started playing RD1, it moved right over to the Player at hand 6.

Now that I look at the sheet, I can see my brain slipping back into and out of RD1 for the next loss! It's strange the things you see when you look back at these things!

Anyway, the loss at hand 11 should have continued to 12 and 13 but once again, my feeble brain apparently just decided to chase the streaks until they quit for good and it got the win at hand 13. I'm thinking my brain was telling me to just stay on the streaks until the shoe settles down or something.

Wow. Now that I look at it, that had to be what I was thinking. A straight "Chase" of the streaks until they quit. MVS would have had a zero at hand 23. Thanks for making me take a harder look at that card! I guess that does change the way the systems panned out. RD1 would have been +3 and TB4L would be +8.

You learn something every day. I think I saw those big streaks coming up and just decided to stay on them until they broke.

MVS

Edit. Just checked the other two sheets and they both started OTB4L with no streaks so that's how they got played.

Edited January 31, 2010 by MVSeahog
Edit about the other two scorecards

[Norm A]

I think we should start a new thread for a new system.

It would be the M1 system (M for Mistake)

We could also have M2 and M3 for 2 or 3 mistakes. LOL

I have found many times when I make a mistake it was for the best and was a win

if I did not make the mistake it would have been a loss.

Norm

[MVSeahog]

Norm,

I'm thinking that I was so taken aback to see any kind of streak in the shoe at my place that my mind just went into "streak play" mode and kept going. It was almost like it was on autopilot or something.

I am glad that Andrea brought the message to have me post up that shoe as I would have never even thought I played it out like that. It has been noted and added to the arsenal of tricks.

MVS

[MVSeahog]

Well, here's the latest saga of the "Moved to Green" thread and MVS+ all wrapped up into one neat package! When the wife has free play and food coupons, she wants to go to the casino for V-Day and there's no way I'm allowed to say NO!

I'm debating on counting this as an MVS+ shoe play as it started MVS but finished RD1 in both shoes. Sometimes you just have to change when it's not going as planned, that's for sure. I think that's 80% of the battle. Being able to at least change to something that may work when your primary plan is falling apart for whatever reason.

To start, we get to the casino around 5pm or so. Get settled in and watch the recently installed "Zig-Zag Girls" in the roped off Blackjack area for a few minutes while watching the baccarat tables for ANY play at all. Nope, nobody there again, and it's Saturday night. Oh well, I can sit down, get my homework done and maybe somebody will come in to help start the shoe.

After killing 10 minutes or so with idle chatter, buying in for a grand, filling out three cards, I figure I'll get it started by net betting both sides at $10 a side to get my requisite three starting hands in. I'll be wagering 1,2,1 Skip tonight.

So, here we go, Shoe #1 (test shoe #168) and the first bet out loses. In fact the first three lose. I hate it when that happens. Down $100 and it's only the 7th hand of the shoe.

Skip to a win and continue on. Gets back to zero at hand 15. Back to -5 at the bottom of the first column. 3's and 4's high, 1's and 2's low. Watch for OTB4L but watch for low 1's, just in case I want to change to RD1 (my second favorite).

Second column waffles around not doing much but finishes at -8. Very weak shoe still low on 1's and obviously not going anywhere so I moved to RD1 to start the third column.

Of course, the first RD1 bet loses and already I'm wondering if I made the right decision. OTB4L looks like a stronger play but those 1's are keeping me in check for that play.

Only one losing streak of 3 in the third column and it finishes that at -1. This is a great trend so we'll continue with it.

The fourth column starts at zero and finishes at +7. I'll take it.

The odd thing? Nobody else ever showed up at the table and it's almost 7pm on a Saturday night.

Second shoe is the same. Absolutely nobody playing in a casino chock full of people tonight! I net bet the first three hands like normal to start the shoe and then jump in. I must be having bad karma or something tonight. Immediately it runs P11331. The dreaded 1331 sequence, the bain of MVS+. Arrrrgh!

OK, so I'm at -8 at hand 10. Why must this be this difficult? Gotta change to something as MVS has completely failed me tonight. RD1 was doing well in the last shoe and if the 3's keep up, I can survive.

Switched to RD1 for hand 11 and got the win! Hey. The first good thing to happen so far. First column finishes at -6.

Second column finishes at -2, another good trend.

Third column has a beautiful run of 10 Players before giving back a few units and I quit the shoe at +6.

I can't post the finish of the shoe as I sat there for another 10 minutes waiting for anybody to show up and play. Nothing. Absolutely dead at the table! The only other player to show was that odd guy who only bets when I bet. When I left he left. He simply will not make a bet on his own, period!

I colored up and went out side for a walk around the parking lot for awhile to get some fresh air and plan for the next shoe. Might even have to START the shoe under RD1 as it seems to be working much better than MVS tonight.

About 15 minutes of cold Florida swamp air and I see a huge contingent of Asians moving into the casino front entrance. This is good. Now we'll get some players at the tables. I casually follow them in and all the women head for the slot machines and then men head for the poker tables!!!! WTF???

Must not be my night to play or something. I monitored those tables for another hour or so and other than a few drunks who couldn't get on to a blackjack table dropping a few chips on Player, there were no other players for baccarat up until we left around 11:15pm that night.

I'm thinking I need to head to Tampa or something as the times we've been there, I've seen many more baccarat tables in play.

So, to sum this up, the MVS play didn't go well and it needed RD1 to save it in both shoes. I'll still count these as wins for the MVS system monitor/spreadsheet as technically they were started playing MVS but part of the MVS system is to have a backup for when it collapses and tonight, it collapsed fully and hit -8 in both shoes before I made the switch.

As an anecdote, the relief dealer in the second shoe failed to collect commission for 17 Banker unit wins!! It dawned on her around hand 54 in the second shoe when she looked at my commission box and it had all of $12.50 in it!

MVS

Shoe #1

P1311124331

P1121111214131

B32531413

P11111344

Shoe#2

P113312121311

B11221111532

B1(10)1121x (not finished)

Edited February 15, 2010 by MVSeahog
Misc spelling errors

[MVSeahog]

For what it's worth for those reading the MVS+ thread (this one), I'll be going back to the 1,1,2 series of wagers to start the shoes on Monday in an attempt to avoid those damaging -8 and -10 type starts in the first column when the shoe just starts off bad.

The profit taking will be slightly smaller initially but the thinking here is that you can recover from a pair of 3 bet losers (-8 total) much easier than a -12 start running 1,2,3 as the wager plan.

Once the shoe gets moving along and assuming the ability to take the profit in the second or third columns, there may be room to "open up the betting" in the last column should the opportunity arise.

As usual, a running SAP count will be maintained and if the numbers warrant it, a change to any of the NU SAP plans can be done on the fly.

I'll have my usual long winded report on Monday night after the wife spends her "birthday free plays" at the casino.

MVS

[MVSeahog]

I'll have my usual long winded report on Monday night after the wife spends her "birthday free plays" at the casino.

MVS

Well, this would be it!

As previously mentioned, the wife's birthday is always a good reason to hit the casino and as she had a ton of free play, birthday bucks, food coupons and some slot machine things I still don't understand, we headed out, with one of her buddies in tow. Another slot degenerate.

As usual, nobody at the tables for me so I started in running MVS, playing the $10 net bet for the first three hands and then proceeded to do my "traditional' lose the first three wagers. I REALLY, REALLY hate that now.

The entire shoe just wanders around between +1 and -6 and finishes at zero with a last wager "all or nothing" type of bet while down -3. It wins for the zero.

Second shoe was a bit odd as it had no PPx runs in it until hand 38! I made a notation to switch to Sys 40 around hand 22 or so but never actually played it that way. I just stayed on Bank and bet it until it lost a three in a row. Then the Players came out with a vengeance! About the middle of the 4th column I went back to Sys 40, at least I think I did as I had a notation on the card, but the finally play of the card looked more like RD1 at the end. I really have to sort that out in the casino as too much changing really wrecks the play. Came out of that at +2. Ugly , but alive.

I had a bit of time before the next shoe and already had my homework done for the card so I asked for a dinner comp. Got it for the both of us (woo-hoo!) and looked over the previous cards.

There was nothing in the last two cards that would have made the U1D2M2 come out poorly so I elected to run shoe number 3 that way.

Although U1D2M2 can produce some great wins, it can also produce some "great" wagers, usually more than I'd like to place but I figured I hadn't really dipped into the bail out territory in the first two shoes so I had that to work with.

I ran it U1D2M2 Skip to a win after 3 losses.

At hand 9 it was -10 !! At hand 31 it was back up to +5. It does give you some large swings for sure, but it was staying just ahead of the trouble stop of -15.

It almost hit +10 in the third column but just missed so I had to keep playing. Finally took the +6 falling win at hand 66 and then it continued on to finish +14 in the next 6 hands. Arrrrgh!

So, a very weak session and a very small profit. +3 after commissions BUT we did have a baby back rib dinner for me, filet mignon for the wife and prime rib for our tag along slot player. AND I got to eat way too much Indian fry bread which I have become addicted to since last years trip out west to the Bad Lands.

MVS+ is still holding a nice winning shoe ratio holding at 80% for the last 184 shoes, but the winning net is slowly getting smaller. The last 50 shoes are showing a 71% win ratio. I will continue to monitor and play this in conjunction with NU SAP which I'm growing more accustomed to. NU SAP would have done pretty good in the first two shoes as I made a quick calculation on them before starting #3.

Anyway, it was a good trip, the wife hit a $600 free play bonus and pulled $457 in real money out of it during the playback. Can't complain there! Maybe we should all be moving over to the slot machines????

MVS

Shoe #1

B113121241112

B1211211111111131

B6153212

B211312112

Shoe #2

P14121313121

B61612211

B251116121

P21216312

Shoe #3

P3112161122

P61411115

P1513523

P112125

Edited February 25, 2010 by MVSeahog
spelling again

[Baccplay]

Hi MVS,

You might want to start betting after 2 paper wins (doesn't have to be consecutive), it might save all the losing 1, 2, 3 in the beginning.

Baccplay

[MVSeahog]

Baccplay,

Good idea. I'll use that in the next round of shoes. Anything would be better than what I've been coming up with lately.

Thanks.

MVS

[TomM]

Although U1D2M2 can produce some great wins, it can also produce some "great" wagers, usually more than I'd like to place but I figured I hadn't really dipped into the bail out territory in the first two shoes so I had that to work with.

MVS, Just screwing around with the multiquote thing that I have never used. Earlier tonight I posted a new thread and had a moment...it ended up in the public forum so I finally took the time to find the button to erase the pic. Took forever to backspace through all the text as I could'nt figure out how to undo it.

Anyway you did good to get out with chips again. Good discipline. I personally would not jump up to U1D2M2 or stronger progs until the session profits could cover the drawdown potential. You got to be getting some grade A shoes before doing that or have plenty of their chips in your piile.

I am working on a sort of hybred to Marks Maverick system that is showing good potential (still early) 2 hi betting with up-as-u-win ladder bets that only bets money already banked. If you are not playing one of those casinos that has figured how to never give you a decent run I expect this thing to average out between 15 and 20 units a shoe if you can wiin a few up as u win progs. It is still a mind grind and I can only last about 4 shoes but if things hold up that should be good enough.

I am tentativly calling it M&M but who knows. I am just trying to break away from the net betting skor prog to make things less clunky and than I see the return of net betting with the new RD1/n thread. I haven't really had time to look at that yet. Time will tell I guess.

Take the money and grub anyway you can get it from a casino. I worked in the slot department at Harrahs and Harveys for about 10 minutes combined and saw precious few jackpots paid. A million years ago I got hooked into slots when I was living in Reno and it actually paid me off at just the right tiime to get my kester out of Dodge. Hit one of the big bertha old mechanical machines for a grand with a couple hundred in the tray. They gave me a case of wine and corkscrew and some other crap too.

That was the last slot machine action for me though. I used to bash those old machines to death in Reno and thought that helped at times. I can't believe I never got chucked out of a joint rocking those things. The old ones are built like shufflemaster machines.....need epoxy down the throat of those guys.

Edited February 24, 2010 by TomM