System 40 Advanced

[Fedda]

Ok, Ellis I played this shoe recently and like to know how you had played it? What have been your culprit?

B1113212124221141131121344112

Thanks

[MVSeahog]

Ok, Ellis I played this shoe recently and like to know how you had played it? What have been your culprit?

B11132121242

P211411311212

B144112

Thanks

Fred,

I ran it as a straight System 40 and picked +13 out of it running 2,3,4.

The shoe was sorely lacking in ZZ runs for my taste (and that of Sys40) but with "only" two 3"s in the first column, I kept 3's as the culprit. I carried that "3" at hands 39,40,41 as a second column 3.

MVS (probably way out in left field with my analysis)

[victorino402]

What buy-ins and bankrolls are you guys using for 40A? The buy in and bankroll is important. Let's say using:

345 Limited Prog

U1D2M2

U1D2 no M2

Thanks

[punvit]

I would say that we need about 20 units buy-in per session. But, regarding the unit size, that is depend on you bankroll. I always play with $25 or $100 based units, depends on how well I do on a certain shoe.

Edited October 27, 2010 by punvit

[victorino402]

I would say that we need about 20 units buy-in per session. But, regarding the unit size, that is depend on you bankroll. I always play with $25 or $100 based unit, depends on how well the shoe goes.

Thank you Punvit. What is you buy in to bankroll ratio? In other words if you were just starting out and 20 units was your buy in, what would your bankroll be?

[punvit]

It is up to you. If you want to play with $5 unit size, then your buy-in would be $100. And $25 unit size would be $500 buy-in. It is really up to you, whether you want to buy-in with all your bankroll or partial of it. All we need is minimum of 20 units per sesssion.

[victorino402]

Thanks again punvit. Ellis, what do you recommend for a new student starting out on a $25 table for buy-in and bankroll amounts? Ratio for unit/ buy in/bankroll?

[ECD]

Ok, Ellis I played this shoe recently and like to know how you had played it? What have been your culprit?

B1113212124221141131121344112

Thanks

Fred,

I ran it as a straight System 40 and picked +13 out of it running 2,3,4.

The shoe was sorely lacking in ZZ runs for my taste (and that of Sys40) but with "only" two 3"s in the first column, I kept 3's as the culprit. I carried that "3" at hands 39,40,41 as a second column 3.

MVS (probably way out in left field with my analysis)

Fred, MVS played it about as well as it could be played. This is Not a good shoe. MVS was right to make 3s culprit esp since there was actually only 1 3 in the first col, not 2. I would have started with 4s culprit as always but I would have switched to 3s after the first 4 and I would not have bet OTR upon the first 4. I would have simply skipped that bet as I have seen no 5s.

What makes it such a bad shoe is yes, 3s are LC but not a distinguished LC. Too close. That rules out a 345. So I played it U1D2 M2 but a 234 was also a reasonable choice. I would have been looking for a good place to get out of this shoe. I hit +11 for the second time in col 2 and would have quit right there!

But to answer your question directly, your SAP chart picks 3s as LC but not by much.

BTW, you would post this shoe like this:

B11132121242

P211411311212

B144112

It's a bad shoe no matter what you do. Best to get out with ANY kind of win.

[ECD]

Thanks again punvit. Ellis, what do you recommend for a new student starting out on a $25 table for buy-in and bankroll amounts? Ratio for unit/ buy in/bankroll?

Hi Vic and welcome to the group. Actually Punvit's replies were quite good. Of course I wouldn't recommend Casino play at all until a new student is well versed and well practiced. I often play green and I usually buy in at $500 but that is only because I know that your buy in is about 90% of what determines your comps. So the $500 is mostly for show. My actual stop loss starting out is very low. If I can't make 8 units suffice, I'll likely find a better table.

For Bankroll, 3 buy ins or about 25 units should be enough if you are well practiced. Also it depends on how well you know the casino and what time of day you will play. Morning play is usually more consistent than night play.

On a related subject, I like to be up at least 50 units before I'll consider raising the stakes. Even then, I'll only do it at a very consistent table.

[ECD]

Ok, I corrected that mistake several of you pointed out I made in Baccplay's shoe that I played 40, 2s culprit 345, 5 Hi. That'll teach me not to play shoes at 4 AM. The final score was +50 rather than +60. But it still demonstrates the same point rather convincingly: S40 can beat streaky shoes.

The F2 version (40A) the +42 score was correct. I just had a copy error on that one play. It's very hard to transcribe a shoe that way W/O error. Sorry, but I would still like to get those two versions posted if anybody is game. I can check your final shoes if you call me at 901 405 1723. PJ, I hate to pick on you AGAIN. Anybody else?

[ECD]

Hey Fred, actually the best way you could have played that shoe was straight OTB4L U1D2 M2. I often do that at Gold Strike, Tunica with brand new cards because their new card prep there virtually eliminates 5 or mores on first and second shoes. It would have scored +22 which is excellent for a short shoe.

[Baccplay]

Good Job Jersey! Right, the OR count started right out strong minus and ended up -9. For the same reason I selected F2 (new rules) with a 345 limited prog. With a count this strong its hard to go wrong either way. This table had likely been a minus count table all day and an F2 table all day. But RD1 was also an excellent choice since you didn't see your first 1 until play 9.

I quit with +42 at play 66 with a 3 bet due. (Don't go below the decade you are in in the last col.)

My worst position was -2 at plays 30 and 34. No other dips into minus territory. Straight F2. No need to post it. Very simple! The new rule worked beautifully every time. No 0 bets - I played every hand to play 66.

Baccplay, how did Maverick do?

Ellis, unfortunately this is not a minus count table or F2, it was choppy and neutral until this shoe comes along. I played Maverick Ultimate using the 234 progression (go back to 2 if I lose the 4) and I ended up +61, started at hand 17, which I got in late and played all the way til the last hand. My worst position is +2. Too bad I didn't play this shoe using the 345 prog or else I can easily win over 100 units which I never need to bet more than 5 units!

Anyways, the new Sys40 Advanced did good on this shoe too.

Baccplay

Edited October 27, 2010 by Baccplay

[Fedda]

ok, because I've been struggling with those kind of shoes lately. It's hard to choose the right system when you suddenly when you see a bunch of 2s, 3s, and 4s appears after a pretty choppy start.

My biggest problem for the moment is to accept that it's a bad shoe and simply leave it.

[ECD]

Ellis, unfortunately this is not a minus count table or F2, it was choppy and neutral until this shoe comes along. I played Maverick Ultimate using the 234 progression (go back to 2 if I lose the 4) and I ended up +61, started at hand 17, which I got in late and played all the way til the last hand. My worst position is +2. Too bad I didn't play this shoe using the 345 prog or else I can easily win over 100 units which I never need to bet more than 5 units!

Anyways, the new Sys40 Advanced did good on this shoe too.

Baccplay

Wow, 61 units in 56 plays. Better than 1 unit per play. Good job! How did you fare on the prior choppy and neutral shoes?

BTW, they also use those same tactics where I play at Gold Strike. A table can be choppy all day but as soon as all the players are winning they switch to streak sure as clockwork. You can absolutely depend on it.

[ECD]

Fred, where are you seeing these shoes? Remember that straight OTB4L with a 3 bet prog loves single and double 1's, all 2s, 3s and 4s. It does not like 5s either straight or ZZ. It wins every bet in the TTs. You might want to experiment with that. Casinos love OTB4L shoes because EVERYONE at the table loses EXCEPT the player smart enough to play OTB4L.

[Fedda]

The shoes are from Unibet live-online casino. I live in europe so Im playing there from time to time. They have one table there and the deck is washed and hand-shuffled. It's an eight deck-shoe and they make the cut about after 6 decks. I've seen recently that they want to cut it even earlier. I saved a record of 3 shoes from today with no brakes or pauses.

#1

P31112211412

112153222214

321114111

#2

P31821211513

122212111224

3132

#3

P11141161112

213111311533

14111

I remember a couple of days before it wasn't like this hard at the same table. Before it was more of a choppy table, and in a way it's still choppy sometimes but not consistently choppy.

Haven't tried out OTBL4 yet but maybe it should fit these kind of shoes without any system change?

[jerseyslim]

We went to Mt. Airy today. It was my brother-in-law's birthday so we took him out for the day. I've been experiencing some problems on BPC with the dual SAP charts. I started dwelling too much on them with less than favorable outcomes and missing the larger picture. So today I canned them and went back to the single SAP chart and did quite well. I used a 3,4,5 progression. First shoe started out RD1 then at hand 15 I switched to F2 then by hand 21 was on sys 40. With focusing what was going on I picked up the changes much better. Scored +30 on the first shoe. Second shoe I stayed sys 40 all the way. Since I had company I stopped for the day at hand 31 for a +19.

Shoe #1

P11251111211111

B21212141321

B121233233

P11211321

Shoe #2

1131221122112

B11222121

[ECD]

We went to Mt. Airy today. It was my brother-in-law's birthday so we took him out for the day. I've been experiencing some problems on BPC with the dual SAP charts. I started dwelling too much on them with less than favorable outcomes and missing the larger picture. So today I canned them and went back to the single SAP chart and did quite well. I used a 3,4,5 progression. First shoe started out RD1 then at hand 15 I switched to F2 then by hand 21 was on sys 40. With focusing what was going on I picked up the changes much better. Scored +30 on the first shoe. Second shoe I stayed sys 40 all the way. Since I had company I stopped for the day at hand 31 for a +19.

Shoe #1

P11251111211111

B21212141321

B121233233

P11211321

Shoe #2

1131221122112

B11222121

EXCELLENT job Jersey - AGAIN!

[victorino402]

Hi Vic and welcome to the group. Actually Punvit's replies were quite good. Of course I wouldn't recommend Casino play at all until a new student is well versed and well practiced. I often play green and I usually buy in at $500 but that is only because I know that your buy in is about 90% of what determines your comps. So the $500 is mostly for show. My actual stop loss starting out is very low. If I can't make 8 units suffice, I'll likely find a better table.

What do you mean by starting out? A new shoe or table or both? Also, what is the prog you use for an 8-unit stop loss? A 345 would be only 2 or 3 hands. Is it an U1D2M2 prog or something different?

[ECD]

Hi Vic and welcome to the group. Actually Punvit's replies were quite good. Of course I wouldn't recommend Casino play at all until a new student is well versed and well practiced. I often play green and I usually buy in at $500 but that is only because I know that your buy in is about 90% of what determines your comps. So the $500 is mostly for show. My actual stop loss starting out is very low. If I can't make 8 units suffice, I'll likely find a better table.

What do you mean by starting out? A new shoe or table or both? Also, what is the prog you use for an 8-unit stop loss? A 345 would be only 2 or 3 hands. Is it an U1D2M2 prog or something different?

By "starting out" I mean a table you know NOTHING about. I almost NEVER find myself in that situation. I make it a point to examine prior score cards at the target table or know what the card prep produces. I don't play in the blind.

For instance: At Hollywood, Keith already knew their card prep produced chop. So we made it a point to start each day with new cards right after the card prep. From there, it was simple to keep track of what each shoe color was doing. When we took our breaks it was for one shoe. So when we returned it was always to the same shoe color we had just played. That way, we started right out with the right system nearly every time. But when we didn't, we were quick to react to that fact. In the losing shoe, (-5), we didn't lose because we picked the wrong system. We lost because we played the right system wrong. We were SUPPOSED to be playing RD1. We bet down under the 1's OK but we failed to also bet down under a 1,2 like RD1 calls for. Therefore we lost to a long run of 212s that we clearly should have beat. We were actually playing RDH or whatever Mark T. calls it. Big mistake and it was clearly my fault.

On the Vegas trip we met for dinner at Gold Coast at 8 P. But I had already checked out the 16 tables before dinner. One table stood out. Table #1 was almost all ZZ runs. After dinner, an hour later, I saw that the Players had quit table 1 half way through the shoe leaving a half a shoe unplayed on a shoe that was almost 100% ZZ runs.

A member from a competitive forum, Garnabby, was following us around. He was out to prove that my theory on shoe history was full of beans. So he introduced himself to seven of us before we sat down. We played TB4L and Garnabby watched us win 90% of the hands playing TB4L for green chips. Garnabby left without a word. Later, on his own forum, he claimed he was never there. We paid for the whole trip in 20 minutes.

At Tunica, where I usually play, (Gold Strike) the card prep produces Neutral shoes - perfect for OTB4L. From there, I just keep track of both colors at all three tables. You have plenty of time between shoes to check out the other tables. Esp me, because I tend to quit shoes early.

I can't over stress how important it is to know what a table is doing BEFORE you sit down. If you don't know, don't sit down until you do. Playing in the blind is gambling. I don't gamble. I leave that to the party people. To me, its a business, not a party. To BE a Pro you must think like a pro.

So, if I sit down after knowing what the table is doing and lose a 3,4. Yes, I'll either quit and change tables or change systems. Reevaluate. I'm looking for the easiest tables to beat. That rules out tables that fooled me right at the start. Sometimes I leave W/O ever making a bet.

I recall one table at Hollywood after dinner. We sat down and the first 3 hands went exactly opposite of what we expected. I said guys, its time to go home. We left W/O making a single bet.

Edited October 28, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

Ellis,

We have severe weather with a tornado alert and a bad front moving thru. Normally I would be glad to post up these shoes, but Shirley insists that we go to the basement.

Can someone else post them?

Thanks,

PJ

This too will blow away. Meanwhile keep your head down!

[victorino402]

Quoting Ellis, "By "starting out" I mean a table you know NOTHING about. I almost NEVER find myself in that situation. I make it a point to examine prior score cards at the target table or know what the card prep produces. I don't play in the blind."

So along those lines, would it be a good idea to wait until a shoe O/R count shows +/- 2 or +/- 3 and then select S40, F2, or RD1 accordingly? Or, if it hovers around zero, +/-1 for five or six hands select OTB4L?

Also, if a shoe hits +/- 8 Streak Shoe status, do we raise our base unit of the prog we are using? Then if it goes back below +/- 8 revert back to the original base unit?