S40A Manual Q&A

[ECD]

otb4l, can someone tell me in a simple way what that system is?

thanks,

Rinaldo

Well, there was a complete manual under the heading New Members start here. But I'll be damned if I can find it now. Seems every time I want to use a system the manual has disappeared. At this rate I'll be rewriting manuals forever.

Well, all the rules for all 4 S40A systems will be repeated BRIEFLY in the new S40A manual, anyway. But it is ridiculous that I have to keep writing the same stuff over and over and over again and again because everything I write keeps disappearing..

[victorino402]

Ellis,

Page 3, paragraph 2 of the F2 manual states, "If you have a count of -2 or greater then you should play F2 rather than System 40. In addition, if you are watching a shoe and you see the count fall in the negative direction of +5 points. For instance you see a shoe at +3 and it falls to -2."

Should this be a rule of thumb as to changing modes whenever the O/R count changes +/- 5 points either from Chop to Streak or Streak to Chop?

When to switch chop/streak modes seems to be the key strategy in 40A.

Is this right or can you give a better trigger as to when to switch modes?

What about if the O/R count was +7 and falls to +2, should we switch to Streak even though the shoe is still technically a Chop shoe?

Vic

Edited November 9, 2010 by victorino402
Added a point

[ECD]

Well, there was a complete manual under the heading New Members start here. But I'll be damned if I can find it now. Seems every time I want to use a system the manual has disappeared. At this rate I'll be rewriting manuals forever.

Well, all the rules for all 4 S40A systems will be repeated BRIEFLY in the new S40A manual, anyway. But it is ridiculous that I have to keep writing the same stuff over and over and over again and again because everything I write keeps disappearing..

Well having vented all that, I just realized I never did answer Rinaldo's question.

Rinaldo, you play OTB4L the same way you play 40 except you are betting an OTB4L pattern instead of opposites. You still go OTR directy under the LC event usually under a 3, 4, 5 rather than under a 2,3 or 4.

But with OTB4L you also need to watch the length of ZZ runs in addition to straight runs because you also go on those at some point. A 2 bet prog will ALWAYS beat a single sporadic 1.

I usually stay OTB4L until I lose two bets. Then I look to see if the last straight or ZZ run went one more or not and bet accordingly. If its the first run I've lost two bets against, I usually don't bet at all until the run ends, Now I have history for the next run. The important thing is to look at straight and ZZ runs separately. This seems to work just about as good as SAP with OTB4L and is less cumbersome.

[victorino402]

Ellis,

Page 3, paragraph 2 of the F2 manual states, "If you have a count of -2 or greater then you should play F2 rather than System 40. In addition, if you are watching a shoe and you see the count fall in the negative direction of +5 points. For instance you see a shoe at +3 and it falls to -2."

Should this be a rule of thumb as to changing modes whenever the O/R count changes +/- 5 points either from Chop to Streak or Streak to Chop?

When to switch chop/streak modes seems to be the key strategy in 40A.

Is this right or can you give a better trigger as to when to switch modes?

What about if the O/R count was +7 and falls to +2, should we switch to Streak even though the shoe is still technically a Chop shoe?

Vic

Ellis did you overlook this question on thread #27 or did you not want to answer it due to some manuals disappearing? I wasn't sure if that was directed towards me or not.

[ECD]

I saw your questions yesterday Vic but then my day went to hell before I got a chance to answer. Don't take that F2 manual too literally Vic because it is just a cut and paste manual for use for new members until we have a complete S40A manual which will include F2 as it pertains to S40A. I'm sure some of that was from the original F2 manual when we were looking at it from a stand alone perspective.

I think the first thing you need to know about switching systems is this: The more you switch the worse off you are.

I think one of the two problems with the original Maverick is that it had you switching at every whim of the shoe instead of concentrating on the MAIN bias of the shoe. I think the more you deviate from the main bias the worse off you are.

For instance: Your question here:

"What about if the O/R count was +7 and falls to +2, should we switch to Streak even though the shoe is still technically a Chop shoe?"

Recognize that 40 is designed to handle a considerable amout of Streak because nearly all chop shoes have streaky sections. But if we take the bait and switch to a streak system we will likely do that just in time for the shoe to go back to chop. Then we find ourselves chasing our tail throughout the rest of the shoe.

That quick count reversal was likely caused by a straight 5 in a row. But 5s can't hurt 40 regardless of whether the LC is 3 or 4 or even 2. Lets say 4s were LC and we were betting U1D2. Fine, we most likely win the first circle of the 5 and then lose a 123 against the 2nd 3rd and 4th circles of the 5. Then we win our 4, go back to ops and win our 2. We are actually up 1 unit for the whole episode and right back to betting Opposites which is what the shoe is favoring overall. A 6 in a row we would break even.

When I say we want to play the system the OR count is favoring, I'm talking the SIGN of the OR count. Mostly plus + signs is SYs 40. Mostly - signs is F2 primarily.

So, no we would not switch systems just because our +OR count had a minus moment.

BUT, suppose our count actually went -. This means that the signs actually now favor -. NOW we would definitely consider either switching or getting out of the shoe. I find that this only occurs in about 10% of shoes.

What we see more often is an OR count that just doesn't go anywhere. Half the time its + and half the time its - and its frequently crossing 0.

True, both 40 and F2 usually do OK in such a shoe but ONLY OK. BUT OTB4L THRIVES in such a shoe which is exactly why we added OTB4L to the S40A umbrella. And don't forget, OTB4L shoes are the casino's favorite.

S40A puts the emphasis on getting to the right system quickly. This is actually easier in a casino than it is at home. In the casino we went by TABLE history and we were only wrong one shoe in 11. At home, you have no table history to guide you.

Any switching we did was right at the beginning of the shoe but we seldom found this necessary.

Recognize that biases are caused by the shuffle and the whole shoe experienced the same shuffle. THAT is how we get our edge in Baccarat and it is the ONLY way to get an edge. These guys that say all cards are random just haven't played long enough to know better.

BTW, Keith posted a phone conversation between two professional BJ players. I think its on the public forum. You Bac players should take time to listen to this conversation. Yes, its about BJ but its also first hand evidence that the cards are NOT random. BJ and Bac use the same shuffle techniques and the same shuffle machines. Take a listen to it. There is a world of casino knowledge on that tape. BTW, in BJ we ALSO win by using the non randomness of the cards to our advantage. We beat BOTH games by the SAME technology - the non randomness of cards.

Edited November 11, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

dear all

please could you help?

wondering what I can do for this, esp the 3s at the back. If i were to amend my LC=4 to LC=3 after the appearance of the first Streak of 4, i would have been in some deep trouble?

cheers and best of luck at the tables!

regards,

a8

Good posting job Ace. Except its better to make your cols 20 plays long, although it fits better the way you did it.

Your shoe is a perfect example of what I'm talking about over on the S40A Questios thread. An OR count that goes nowhere and keeps crossing 0. This count is screaming at you to play OTB4L. So I played it straight OTB4L all the way with no OTR (on the run) bets whatsoever. Played U1D2 M2 it scores +36 (stopping 2 plays from the end) with a highest bet of 4. PERFECT. Played straight OTB4L with a 345 limited it scores +44 stopping the same place with a high bet of 5.

So how did I know to do that. EASY

The OR count goes nowhere actually staying between +2 and -2 the whole shoe with lots of 0s.

The shoe is full of 2s and 3s which OTB4L loves.

No rocket science here.

Also, the table is VERY likely to stay that way because it is exactly what casinos strive for. WE will definitely be the ONLY winners at that table. Just as you found by trying to make 40 fit an obvious OTB4L shoe.

[victorino402]

I saw your questions yesterday Vic but then my day went to hell before I got a chance to answer. Don't take that F2 manual too literally Vic because it is just a cut and paste manual for use for new members until we have a complete S40A manual which will include F2 as it pertains to S40A. I'm sure some of that was from the original F2 manual when we were looking at it from a stand alone perspective.

I think the first thing you need to know about switching systems is this: The more you switch the worse off you are.

I think one of the two problems with the original Maverick is that it had you switching at every whim of the shoe instead of concentrating on the MAIN bias of the shoe. I think the more you deviate from the main bias the worse off you are.

For instance: Your question here:

"What about if the O/R count was +7 and falls to +2, should we switch to Streak even though the shoe is still technically a Chop shoe?"

Recognize that 40 is designed to handle a considerable amout of Streak because nearly all chop shoes have streaky sections. But if we take the bait and switch to a streak system we will likely do that just in time for the shoe to go back to chop. Then we find ourselves chasing our tail throughout the rest of the shoe.

That quick count reversal was likely caused by a straight 5 in a row. But 5s can't hurt 40 regardless of whether the LC is 3 or 4 or even 2. Lets say 4s were LC and we were betting U1D2. Fine, we most likely win the first circle of the 5 and then lose a 123 against the 2nd 3rd and 4th circles of the 5. Then we win our 4, go back to ops and win our 2. We are actually up 1 unit for the whole episode and right back to betting Opposites which is what the shoe is favoring overall. A 6 in a row we would break even.

When I say we want to play the system the OR count is favoring, I'm talking the SIGN of the OR count. Mostly plus + signs is SYs 40. Mostly - signs is F2 primarily.

So, no we would not switch systems just because our +OR count had a minus moment.

BUT, suppose our count actually went -. This means that the signs actually now favor -. NOW we would definitely consider either switching or getting out of the shoe. I find that this only occurs in about 10% of shoes.

What we see more often is an OR count that just doesn't go anywhere. Half the time its + and half the time its - and its frequently crossing 0.

True, both 40 and F2 usually do OK in such a shoe but ONLY OK. BUT OTB4L THRIVES in such a shoe which is exactly why we added OTB4L to the S40A umbrella. And don't forget, OTB4L shoes are the casino's favorite.

S40A puts the emphasis on getting to the right system quickly. This is actually easier in a casino than it is at home. In the casino we went by TABLE history and we were only wrong one shoe in 11. At home, you have no table history to guide you.

Any switching we did was right at the beginning of the shoe but we seldom found this necessary.

Recognize that biases are caused by the shuffle and the whole shoe experienced the same shuffle. THAT is how we get our edge in Baccarat and it is the ONLY way to get an edge. These guys that say all cards are random just haven't played long enough to know better.

BTW, Keith posted a phone conversation between two professional BJ players. I think its on the public forum. You Bac players should take time to listen to this conversation. Yes, its about BJ but its also first hand evidence that the cards are NOT random. BJ and Bac use the same shuffle techniques and the same shuffle machines. Take a listen to it. There is a world of casino knowledge on that tape. BTW, in BJ we ALSO win by using the non randomness of the cards to our advantage. We beat BOTH games by the SAME technology - the non randomness of cards.

GREAT lesson Ellis. Thanks!

[Plasia87]

In what conditions should I change to U1D2M3B2?

[ECD]

In what conditions should I change to U1D2M3B2?

An excellent and highly pertinent question. And while we are at it, lets also throw in the 345.

The applicable rule here is always match your betting aggression to the quality of the shoe.

By "quality of the shoe" I'm talking about the strength of the bias which translates to what % of our bets are we winning?

For instance a high plus OR count is a high quality shoe once we have decided on S40. That is not the only high quality shoe. A high minus OR count is usually a high quality F2 shoe and sometimes RD1. And a runless shoe is a high quality OTB4L shoe. This last type will have a high + OT count and the OR count is frequently hitting and or crossing 0.

For S40A, these are your 3 types of high quality shoe. They are caused by the card prep and shuffle # or machine setting used. (chip) What is great about that is that once a table is producing ANY of those three shoe types it is very likely to keep producing them until the players at that table are winning. Often both shoe colors will be playing the same way but not always.

But once the majority of the players at that table are winning, just like clockwork, the casino will change it up by going to a different shuffle or machine chip. Just remember that it takes the casino two shoes to change up a game.

So don't spread the news. Don't say to your neighbor: "Look idiot play opposites because these shoes are 90% opposites." You are just spoiling your own windfall. Also, don't be the highest bettor for the same reason. We seldom are anyway.

Let me tell you a highly pertinent war story to give you an idea of what I'm talking about: There was a two table very high stakes room upstairs at Caesars, Vegas. $100 min, $50,000 max. There was only one 14 player table open at a time. It was always brand new cards. While the players were playing one table the casino was prepping the other table. At the end of a shoe all the players went to the other table and took their same seats. This revolving game never missed a heartbeat. Except for me, it was entirely Asian, including both pit crews.

The first time I played this game I quickly noted that one table was ALWAYS choppy and the other ALWAYS streaky. So, I quickly settled in to play the very aggressive U1D1 betting straight opposites on the chop table and straight repeats on the streak table. I played this room very often and never lost a shoe. The highest bet I ever got to was 10. ($1000). I was, by far, the lowest bettor in the room. $50,000 bets were VERY common among the other players who looked upon me as some sort of dip shit.

I played that room 25 or 30 times until I made a fatal error one night. Recognize I was playing way under the radar both from the casino standpoint but also from the standpoint of the other players. But one night, the very polite Asian next to me spoke to me in perfect English. It was the first time anyone had ever spoken to me in that room, either player or pit crew.

He simply said: "I can't help but notice you've won every shoe. I'm $70,000 down. Do you mind if I follow you? I said, "Please be my guest" when I should have said: "please don't" or better yet - I should have picked up my score cards and left right then than there.

Of course he was matching my $100 units with his own $2000 units. He went from $70,000 down to $70,000 up in one shoe. The Mgr immediately ejected me and barred me for life. He never said a word to my Asian friend. His reason? I was using a score card from a different casino.

In the NBJ 3rd base BJ method used for random cards we always bet a 3 bet progression. It was our job to note which of the 3 bets we were winning the most and design our 3 bet prog accordingly. Because of the nature of that game, it was usually the second bet so we put the emphasis on the 2nd bet by playing a 1,4,6. But when we were winning the first bet most often we played a 234. If we were winning the 3rd bet most often we might try a 113 but usually we just left to look for a better game. This simple principle, among other things, made us the best BJ players on the planet.

In Baccarat, we can borrow a page from BJ. Put the emphasis on the bet you are winning the most. If you are losing the first bet more often than you are winning it, you have no business making it more than 1 unit. We have even done well making the first bet 0. That, BTW, is not allowed in BJ at most casinos. Perhaps you can see why. But it IS allowed in Bac and sometimes when you are getting a very low hit rate on your first bet, you can improve your lot greatly by making your first bet 0.

But at high quality tables, where you have selected your system correctly, you often have a high hit rate on your fist bet. Once you have confirmed this, it is more than an option to raise your first bet. Consider it your duty.

So, OK, what should you raise your first bet to? Should you play a 234 or a 345? Well a 234 is certainly a step in the right direction but the problem with it is that it usually needs to be augmented with higher bets, hence, U1D2 M3 B2.

While the 345 while sounding outlandishly aggressive, is really LESS aggressive because it does NOT need to be augmented with higher bets. With the 345, if you, in fact, win most of your first bets, you usually easily win the shoe W/O ever going more than 5. See the difference? It's huge.

So, which progression should you use and when? Easy. Which bet are you winning the most and are you winning it more than half the time? BTW, if you are NOT winning your best bet more than half the time, its time to look for a better table. Get it?

OH, BTW, the Asians never caught on to the casino strategy in that high stakes room for the several years that I played there. CASINO SAVVY! It pays to be aware!

Edited November 15, 2010 by ECD

[victorino402]

Ellis, here's a shoe that gave me trouble. I think that because it was a + S40 shoe with little disparity on the SAP chart I couldn't beat it. I understand we will lose to 10% of shoes. How would you have played it? -Vic-

B123212111141

P213111121223

P2161111412

P3

[ECD]

Ellis, here's a shoe that gave me trouble. I think that because it was a + S40 shoe with little disparity on the SAP chart I couldn't beat it. I understand we will lose to 10% of shoes. How would you have played it? -Vic-

B123212111141

P213111121223

P2161111412

P3

Hi Vic, a tough shoe but not so tough you couldn't beat it. S40 is an OK choice but OTB4L is a much better choice.

When you played S40, did you start with 4s culprit? 4s then stay culprit throughout the shoe.

I can see why you went to S40 but look at OTB4L. What tells us to go to OTB4L? Yes, the OR count starts + but not a strong +. OTB4L likes shoes where the OR count hits or crosses 0 frequently. In your shoe the OR count hits 0 5 times in the first 11 plays. That is screaming OTB4L. Then, as is so typical, The shoe stays OTB4L favorable throughout.

Anyway, I played it S40 first as I knew that was how you played it. I used a 345 which was probably a mistake as I ended up losing more 3 bets than I won. Probably would have been better off with a 123.

The secret of winning this shoe with S40 is to stay as conservative as possible.

How do we know this? Because we never get a strong + OR count. Our count keeps evaporating. AGAIN, You play and bet to the quality of the shoe

How do we stay conservative? Again, When we go OTR we go back to our base bet. AND when we go off the run we go back to our base bet. We also have no mandatory bets and we cap our prog at 3 bets. We also pay close attention to our money MGT.

As for Cash Mgt. Played this conservative way but with a 345 we hit + 20 for the first time at play 36. We would likely quit there because we really struggled to get there being at -2 only 11 plays earlier. But if we continued we hit +20 again at play 43, a definite quit. But we hit +20 a third time at play 56. No way we would play further than that.

But, since this is an excellent OTB4L shoe right from the start, I played it the far more aggressive U1D2 M3 B2 that we just talked about yesterday. As the OR count suggests, we breeze right through this shoe and our decade cash mgt in the last col. gets us out with +40 at the second to the last play in this short shoe (Only 63 plays).

This is an excellent training shoe both from a system selection standpoint and a betting selection standpoint. It clearly demonstrates the power and guidance of the OR count.

Edited November 16, 2010 by ECD

[MVSeahog]

Victorina402,

Can you tell me what casino and the date that this shoe came up?

It's for me record keeping and paperwork on test sheets.

MVS

[jerseyslim]

Ellis.........I'm not sure why you say this shoe stayed otb4l favorable throughout. At hand 38 I've got a +9 OR count and if that's not screaming opposites or system 40 then I don't know when it does. It stays basically at this level until hand 49 where it's still +5 then stetches back out again to a +9 at hand 54 once again. So to me, this shoe may start out with otb4l but certainly calls for a change by hand 38. When you were doing otb4l, when did you go otr, after 4? Also, when using otb4l how do you handle the long zz runs like from hands 27-31. And we've all seen zz this long as even much longer. This will kill otb4l unless you go on some kind of run at some point.

Edited November 16, 2010 by jerseyslim

[victorino402]

So is it good enough to simply use the O/R count as the indicator for when to switch to OTB4L or should we be keeping an O/T count throughout the whole shoe or at the point where we implement OTB4L? Detailed "charting" become a hassle after awhile and leads to mistakes. What's the best way to chart? SAP and O/R or SAP, O/R and O/T?

[BaCcArAt KiNg]

So is it good enough to simply use the O/R count as the indicator for when to switch to OTB4L or should we be keeping an O/T count throughout the whole shoe or at the point where we implement OTB4L? Detailed "charting" become a hassle after awhile and leads to mistakes. What's the best way to chart? SAP and O/R or SAP, O/R and O/T?

Victorino402,

For starters, I suggest you chart both the SAP and O/R count until you can tell the shoe by just looking at the toteboard. NO CHARTING AT ALL is easy and hassle-free BUT I DO NOT THINK you can LAST THE WHOLE SHOE WITHOUT DEPLETING YOUR BANKROLL. There are no easy shortcuts in beating the casinos. Everything thought here is the closest we got in beating them.

Always consult your O/R count for changes on the shoe trend. Look for consistency. A decreasing (-) OR count tells you to go F2/RD1 while an increasing (+) OR count is S40. When the OR count is neither decreasing nor increasing then go OTB4L. Usually I give up 2-3 losses in a row before switching systems. My progs used are 123 and 345. I start with 123 then when I am hitting my session goal I switch to 345.

This is my style of play. I am just sharing it. Hope you get something from it.

BK

Edited November 19, 2010 by BaCcArAt KiNg

[ECD]

Right, I agree with BK. Think of the OR and OT counts as training wheels, esp the OT count. Once you are used to the OT count you KNOW what a good OTB4L shoe looks like either on your card or the toteboard or another players card.

You will probably want to retain the OR count a little longer because it is telling you 3 things while the OT is only telling you ONE thing - Is it a good OTB4L shoe or not. The OT count is just a lot of extra work when you will soon be able to just look at a shoe and tell if it is high or low in straight or ZZ runs. While OTB4L can handle long straight and ZZ runs it still doesn't like them. It likes runless shoes.

Also, the OT count is mostly redundant since a neutral OR count (frequently hitting or crossing 0) is telling you the same thing - play OTB4L. This is why I seldom mention the OT count.

No count is foolproof but the OR count leads you in the right direction 90% of the time as long as you look at it 3 ways: Is it favoring + = 40; - = F2 and sometimes RD1 or Neutral = OTB4L.

[ECD]

Ellis.........I'm not sure why you say this shoe stayed otb4l favorable throughout. At hand 38 I've got a +9 OR count and if that's not screaming opposites or system 40 then I don't know when it does. It stays basically at this level until hand 49 where it's still +5 then stetches back out again to a +9 at hand 54 once again. So to me, this shoe may start out with otb4l but certainly calls for a change by hand 38. When you were doing otb4l, when did you go otr, after 4? Also, when using otb4l how do you handle the long zz runs like from hands 27-31. And we've all seen zz this long as even much longer. This will kill otb4l unless you go on some kind of run at some point.

Well, a good observation Jersey if we are both looking at the same shoe and both conducting our OR count properly. At hand 38, your OR count has reached its highest point of +7 having hit 0 5 times already and having also hit +1 several times. At the bottom of the 4 cols, I have the OR count at +3,+5,+5,+4 showing almost 0 movement. Yes it is a fairly strong + count but even a stronger Neutral count. One of us has a mistake. Don't assume its you as I play these shoes VERY fast.

I played OTB4L the fast and lazy way, always going on the straight or ZZ run for only ONE play and allways after 3 losses. I probably could have done slightly better by picking my OTR bets better and choosing between going OTR after 2 or 3 losses. But 3 losses kept on working so I saw no reason to change.

I play S40 the same simple way always starting with 4s culprit until the shoe proves otherwise. Playing 234 U1D2 B2 M3 I could have avoided my single highest bet of 6 and would have done a little better by always going OTR after a losing 4 bet. But 6 is not so high when you are basing at 2. It's comparable to a 5 bet basing at 1. That one time at play 13 I got unlucky and won the 2 and lost the 3 but I really didn't care because I was already up +16 when that happened and finished the 1st col. at +13 which is very good. My col. scores were +13, +28, +35, + 40, a steady climb with no mishaps other than the single 6 bet so why change anything?

Edited November 19, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

Sorry for the delay guys but I had to be out of town the last 3 days.

[johnnycs1]

IS THE FINAL EDITION OF S40 MANUAL POSTED SOMEWHERE ??

thank you

[ECD]

IS THE FINAL EDITION OF S40 MANUAL POSTED SOMEWHERE ??

thank you

Has been for months. Go to index. (on the front page hit forum), hit Baccarat, Hit System 40, hit S40 manual.

There is also an F2 manual, an RD1 manual and The OTB4L manual will be back up shortly.

But soon we will have a S40A manual where all this will be in one place.

BTW, on the Dec Holleywood trip we will be playing S40A, not just S 40. Just like last time.

[johnnycs1]

Has been for months. Go to index. (on the front page hit forum), hit Baccarat, Hit System 40, hit S40 manual.

There is also an F2 manual, an RD1 manual and The OTB4L manual will be back up shortly.

But soon we will have a S40A manual where all this will be in one place.

BTW, on the Dec Holleywood trip we will be playing S40A, not just S 40. Just like last time.

Yeah, thats what I meant..........if S40A , was all in one place as yet ?

thanks.....

[victorino402]

Thank you for the response on the shoe. I am sure there are plenty more that I will find and that will prove to be good learning tools for all of us.

I have another question, Ellis, if you will, and other members, please feel free to jump in as well:

Big Baccarat and Macau Style both use a deck once, that is then thrown away, is, how does this effect the play of System 40? Since the same decks are not being re-shuffled like Mini-Baccarat, does this effect how we play, and if so how? This is an important question as when playing at bigger stakes, you may want to play Big Baccarat or Macau style. Ellis you sometimes describe your success playing a game of Big Baccarat with you and your wife running $1,000 into $10,000, so since you play it, could you please advise? Thank you!

[Sir Donald]

Ellis, would you provide the following, as listed below, and as your time permits?

1) Precise triggers for switching systems ( S40 to F2 etc. ) based on the OR and SAP count for a particular shoe. Approximations have been given but this allows considerable leeway for interpretation, so that no two people are likely to play the same shoe in the same way and obtain identical results. Hopefully, we can avoid the Maverick syndrome!!

2) Several shoes selected to illustrate the correct switching rules as well as the selecting the best progressions for the type of shoe at hand.

3) A recap of all the progressions and their pro's and con's for use in particular circumstances, as well as recommended money management rules ( required bankroll, win goals, stop/loss etc.)

4) Have you reached any definitive conclusions regarding playing SAP separately for player and banker?

Thanks Ellis !

[ECD]

Ellis, would you provide the following, as listed below, and as your time permits?

1) Precise triggers for switching systems ( S40 to F2 etc. ) based on the OR and SAP count for a particular shoe. Approximations have been given but this allows considerable leeway for interpretation, so that no two people are likely to play the same shoe in the same way and obtain identical results. Hopefully, we can avoid the Maverick syndrome!!

2) Several shoes selected to illustrate the correct switching rules as well as the selecting the best progressions for the type of shoe at hand.

3) A recap of all the progressions and their pro's and con's for use in particular circumstances, as well as recommended money management rules ( required bankroll, win goals, stop/loss etc.)

4) Have you reached any definitive conclusions regarding playing SAP separately for player and banker?

Thanks Ellis !

These are all well thought out and excellent points for the S40A manual to cover. Your post makes a good manual check list. But let me see if I can do some justice to your questions in advance in no particular order.

First, I like your term "Maverick Syndrone." I would define it as twofold: 1.) losing sight of the main bias of the shoe while instead chasing every whim of the shoe. When you think about it, that is what every player at the table is trying to do and is the very reason they lose at a record 26% of the drop. The lesson here is to always stick to the MAIN bias of the shoe so that you are always USUALLY right. As soon as you try to always be right by chasing every whim, you run the risk of always being wrong. BUT, if you stick to the MAIN bias, you will be right more often than you are wrong because that is the very definition of "main bias".

Now, as many of you know, Mark looks in on us frequently. I think he has gone a long way toward correcting this original Maverick fault. His color code scheme ends up working much the same as our OR count.

2.) The other half of the Maverick Syndrone is the mistake of betting all shoes with the SAME aggression W/O regard to the QUALITY of the shoe. This works great in winning shoes but it is a time bomb looking for a place to explode in losing shoes. RETREAT is a concept he needs to learn. Most any experienced player can do well in the easy shoes. But PROFESSIONAL Baccarat is more about how you play your losing shoes.

As soon as we started looking at the 3,4,5, Mark went to a 234 across the board. NO, NO, NO! That is like jumping out of the frying pan into the fire. As I have reiterated before, your base bet MUST be decided by whether you are mostly winning or losing your base bet.

We go to a 345 ONLY when we are seeing a high hit rate on our base bet.

You can be easily winning a shoe while generally losing your base bet. In that case your base bet NEEDS to be 1 or even 0, not 2 or 3.

For instance, suppose we are killing a shoe with F2 that turns out to be full of ZZ runs. We win because even though we are usually losing our base 1 bet, we are winng our 2 bet consistently. Why would we increase our LOSING bet to 2 or 3. That makes no sense. We always want the emphasis on the bet we are winning the most. By going to a 234 as standard, you are, in essence, saying that you are always going to win your base bet more often than you lose it. Good luck with that!

Mark is one of the best students I ever had but he is like the brain surgeon who quits school after his first year to go out and operate on brains for big money. Hey, if you play well enough to teach and you are still young, there is a lot more money in playing than there is in teaching, esp in today's internet world. But I wish him luck in his endeavors. The grass always looks greener on the other side of the street - until you cross over. Then it STILL looks greener on the other side of the street.

But that got me started on progs so lets continue on that subject.

First, I started out with progs in BJ 30 years ago. In fact, I coined the phrase: "progs", and also the phrase "negative progression". I got EXTREME heat from the card counting gurus. They say progs are a death sentence. Guess what? They are right! Card counters should NEVER use progs. Look, Basic Strategy only has a 43% hands won rate. You can't fix that big a deficit with a prog. Your only hope is Advantage Betting. I also coined that phrase. Two bet sizes, high and low. You only make your high bet when you expect to win (a high count). BTW, NBJ predicts your winning hands FAR better than any count. Card counting is the greatest scam ever perpetrated on mankind. They can't produce a single winning player yet novices flock to card counting sites like lemmings. The only ways card counting can make money is teaching it or making movies. Oh shit, sorry! I tend to get carried away. Back to Bac progs.

Let me try to list Bac progs in order of risk beginning with the lowest risk.

1.) Flat bet - Advantage: lowest risk. Disadvantage: You MUST win the majority of the hands to win at all. But the biggest advantage is that you can make your unit size anything up to the table max.

Example: Suppose you find yourself at a table that is consistently Extreme streak shoe after shoe. This is quite common. Flat bet repeats at the highest unit you can afford. Better yet, flat bet F2. Long ZZ runs are very common at such tables. Flat betting, F2 breaks even on ZZ runs while Repeats loses every bet!

2.) A 1,2 Negative prog. "Negative" means up as you lose, back to your base bet when you win. Advantage: Very low risk. Disadvantage: lots of losing progs. You only have 2 chances to win every prog. but you can win W/O winning the majority of your first bets but you MUST still win the majority of your bets overall to win the shoe. This can beat flat betting but it does not necessarily beat flat betting. What if every time you lose, you lose 2 in a row??? This only has an advantage when you are very seldom losing 2 in a row but often losing 1 in a row.

3.) 1,2,3 Negative prog: Now you have 3 chances to win your prog. This is the lowest of the progs you can play that allows you to win the shoe W/O winning the majority of your bets. A winning 3 cancels out 2 losing bets in a row. The disadvantage is every time you lose 3 in a row You must win the 1 or the 2 six times to make up for your losing prog.

4.) 1,2,3,4 Negative prog. This works great up until you lose 4 bets in a row which is extremely common. Now you must win 10 1 or 2 bets to make up for ONE losing prog. I can't recommend this prog. You are much better off with:

5.) U1D2 Here you have your first real chance of winning the shoe W/O winning the majority of your bets. You can lose 3 bets in a row, then win only two bets and already be even. Until very recently no one was using this prog but us. Now, a few are just catching on to its huge benefits even though WE made this betting breakthrough many years ago. The ADvantage is obvious. The disadvantage is a run away prog. That is why we always cap this prog. Aside from betting biases, the U1D2 betting approach is responsible for more winning Bac Players than any other factor. We usually cap at 5. Why? Capping higher than 5 has diminishing returns. If we lose a 1234 and win a 5,3 we are only down -2 with a 1 bet due. That is very good shape considering we only won half as many bets as we lost. But at the other extreme suppose we capped at 9. At the 8 bet level we are already down -36. NOBODY in their right mind is going to make a 9 bet when they are already down -36. Nor should they. Yeah, yeah, I know, it worked on the kitchen table. But in a casino your hand won't work because your hand knows that your brain is screwed up!

Look, if you lose 3 in a row wait for a winning play to bet again. Think of capping as a last resort. On a real good day where you have amassed a LOT of chips on the table, OK you might try capping at 6 ONE TIME. But don't say I didn't warn you. Better to quit while you're ahead. 10 losses in a row HAPPENS. Just don't let it happen to YOU.

Oh, and if you lose a shoe, DON'T double your unit next shoe like Mark says. You lost for a reason! If you were foolish enough to stay for the next shoe, its a good time to LOWER your unit. Again, don't say I didn't warn you. You raise the stakes when you are winning - NEVER when you are losing! Try to idiot proof yourself. We ALL do foolish things - Just don't do them at a Baccarat table.

So, should we always use U1D2? NO! Only when we know we are at a winning table. But it is a good goal to work your way up to. We should ALWAYS end up at a winning table - even when we didn't start the day that way. Be selective. It pays!

6.) U1D2 M2: The M2 is mostly for net betting to reduce your avg. bet size. S40A is all SS betting (Single Side). In SS betting the M2 does not lower your risk like it does in net betting. In SS betting M2 increases your risk considerably. Therefore we only consider M2 when our table and system selection was such that we find ourselves frequently winning strings of bets in a row while seldom losing more than 2 or 3 in a row. Faced with that great situation we are likely better off to go to:

7.) U1D2 M3 B2: Now we can afford the M3 BECAUSE we only went to this prog to EXPLOIT a GREAT table with a strong bias AND the table has already proven itself. But if the table is THAT good, why not jump right up to a 345.

8.) 345 Now we are taking hugh advantage of winning first bets (winning bets in a row) but we are doing this W/O the corresponding risk that #7 above carries. Correct we are doubling the risk of a 123 but we are ONLY doubling the risk while tripling the reward for winng bets in a row. Also it compares very favorably to the U1D2 M3 B2. We get more reward for winning first bets while greatly reducing our risk. See, once we raise the base to 2 we can no longer cap at 5 because we won't have enough bets. We need to cap at a min of 6. Whenever we win the 2 and lose the 3 we are betting a 345 anyway so our risk is 12 anyway. (3 lost bets in a row) BUT with a 345 if you win the majoity of your first bets you automatically win the shoe while never betting more than 5. Yet you still make the same on a single lost bet. (1 unit)

OK, you may have noticed that I left out the 234 negative progression altogether. I don't think this has a good place for us any more. The 345 does the same thing but does it better and it eliminates the need for a 4th bet. The 234 needs at least a 4th bet to be viable and probably a 5th bet.

But REMEMBER! The 345 is only viable WHEN you are winning the majority of your first bets or at least breaking even on them.

One more big advantage of the 345. It gives you more opportunity to quit the shoe early with a big win. Any time you win a string of bets in a row, you just made a LOT of money. How much do you need?

OK lets take a coffee break and then I'll get to some of your other excellent questions and also questions from others.

Edited November 21, 2010 by ECD

[jsoeur]

Got a quick question. What is the best way to approach a shoe that the O/R count is high in Repeats? One that hangs around from +6 to +9.