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S40A Manual Q&A


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Good Morning Ellis,

I'm old but I can still set my computer to magnify and see the .5 :)

Basically I am looking at playing nickels with a 5,6,7 base bet is 5 units U1D2M6 so you increase your bet only 20% not 50% as with Plasia's .5 suggestion. Which from a prior post Wolfat uses very sucessfully!

Or a 100% increase with a standard U1D2M2

If .5 is good is .2 better or worse? Boss from your comments, I guess it depends if you are always losing your first bet play U1D2M2 If you are always winning your first bet, bet the ranch! Oh sorry make it a high bet....

OK fine but you get to a point of diminishing returns increasing your first bet. I think a 345 is about as far as you can go. Even with that, sometimes you would have been better off to simply flat bet at 3. I'm interested but I THINK you will find that just as often or maybe more often, you would have been better off to flat bet at 5. But don't take my word for this. Try it and see and keep us posted.

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But Aegis, your point of playing a 567 with nickels to satisfy a $25 table min is highly valid! Particularly if you can get your base bet working well.

For instance, a table high in ZZ runs which is extremely common with new cards and has been even more common with factory preshuffled cards. S40 played 567 will clean house. Especially if the shoe is high in both 1's and 2s which is most likely and extremely common.

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Ok I will try it as soon as I learn S40A LOL Seriously tho, If you take something to the extreme it will show you where it is headed. For example if you made the first bet a 1,000,000,000 units and then went U1D1M1,000,000,002 you will see an extreme help or hinderance. Same goes true if you made your first bet 1 and went U1,000,000,000D2,000,000,000M........... you get the point. Although there is defintely points of diminishing returns. Example Light a match to start a piece of oak on fire, it takes 45 secs for the wood to catch. (hopefully before the match burns your fingers) Next take a propane torch, oak starts in 10 secs. Ok we are going in the correct direction. Not use an atomic fission, the world as you knew it no longer exsists including you. Point is we need to know what we are trying to accomplish and tailor our path towards that end. If we wanted to annihalate the wood, atomic fission would be best! If we wanted to start a romantic fire in the fireplace a match with some smal kindling wood is a good start.

I am traveling today on a road trip to Cleveland Ohio. Taking my wife to see grandchildren, so I will be on and off for sometime. I didn't want anyone thinking I was ignoring them.

Thanks

"If you don't think too good, don't think too much!!"

-----------------------

John

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Ellis:

And as far as the 034 bet is concerned, are you saying that with the "0" unit bet we don't bet at all? I just want to make sure.

Correct! Think about a ZZ run playing F2. Often, the shoes with the longet straight runs (F2), also have the longest ZZ runs. Sure, you could switch to TB4L but it isn't part of S40A. F2 does better because it gets on straight and ZZ runs faster. But if you switch to 023 or 034 instead of 123 in the ZZs you do even better. And if you finally win the 0, you can go to 1 giving you an extra bet in your prog. Might come in handy.

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Ellis, thanks for your response.

I understand what you are saying about when to use OTB4L I was just confused about the Neutral part of the system and whether to use OTB4L in that situation or the neutral part which to me seemed sort of like net betting. I need to read that section a few times. For now I just go into OTB4L when I see the count hovering around 0 and I am losing most of my System40 bets and of course if the shoe is OTB4L compatible.

With that said, I have already played two live shoes on Bet Phoenix. I see what you are saying about paying attention to the shuffle. Before starting my first shoe I noted the OR count and the LC and MC. It stayed consistent through the next 3 shoes. So I went into the second and third shoe knowing that F2 would probably be my primary system and I did very well. As you know usually the shoes are favoring System 40 but I find that when they are not favoring 40 they will be favoring F2.

Most of the time I go into the shoe blind. some Pa casinos have a ton of tables but they are all so crowded that I have to fight for a seat so I don't get a choice. And then there are some casinos that only have 1-2 tables so that limits choice as well. When I go into a shoe blind I will typically wait out 4-7 decisions to see where the OR count is heading then bet based on that. I have a lot of trouble starting at Play 1 blind, I have had some bad experiences doing that. I usually wait 7, unless I see something unfolding before then. does anybody else sit out for a number of decisions at the start of the shoe?

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Correct! Think about a ZZ run playing F2. Often, the shoes with the longet straight runs (F2), also have the longest ZZ runs. Sure, you could switch to TB4L but it isn't part of S40A. F2 does better because it gets on straight and ZZ runs faster. But if you switch to 023 or 034 instead of 123 in the ZZs you do even better. And if you finally win the 0, you can go to 1 giving you an extra bet in your prog. Might come in handy.

I wish I had knowng of this trick yesterday when I was at Harrah's. I was playing some system that I made up on the spot and I lost all of my first bets and won all of my second or third bets. That is why I like about this forum. You not only teach these greats systems but you also give us all of the little tricks to improve our play. You give information that we won't find anywhere else.

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Ellis, thanks for your response.

I understand what you are saying about when to use OTB4L I was just confused about the Neutral part of the system and whether to use OTB4L in that situation or the neutral part which to me seemed sort of like net betting. I need to read that section a few times. For now I just go into OTB4L when I see the count hovering around 0 and I am losing most of my System40 bets and of course if the shoe is OTB4L compatible.

With that said, I have already played two live shoes on Bet Phoenix. I see what you are saying about paying attention to the shuffle. Before starting my first shoe I noted the OR count and the LC and MC. It stayed consistent through the next 3 shoes. So I went into the second and third shoe knowing that F2 would probably be my primary system and I did very well. As you know usually the shoes are favoring System 40 but I find that when they are not favoring 40 they will be favoring F2.

Most of the time I go into the shoe blind. some Pa casinos have a ton of tables but they are all so crowded that I have to fight for a seat so I don't get a choice. And then there are some casinos that only have 1-2 tables so that limits choice as well. When I go into a shoe blind I will typically wait out 4-7 decisions to see where the OR count is heading then bet based on that. I have a lot of trouble starting at Play 1 blind, I have had some bad experiences doing that. I usually wait 7, unless I see something unfolding before then. does anybody else sit out for a number of decisions at the start of the shoe?

Right. At that point in time we were considering OTB4L N which, in fact, is net betting OTB4L vs TB4L and we were looking at S40N, net betting 40 vs RD1 basically. But while acutely interesting these are mostly redundant for S40A wherein we are trying to cover every shoe type while employing the least amount of systems to keep the whole S40A approach as simple as possible while still covering all situations. In fact at this point we are asking Do we really need RD1. Could S40A get away with only 3 systems? That really is about the only question we need to finalize the manual.

We ALL sit out a number of hands UNLESS our table is showing good consistency either from shoe to shoe or from shoe color to shoe color. The applicable rule here is DON"T bet before you have something logical to bet on. Guessing is mere gambling. WE aren't gamblers. WE are players.

As you know usually the shoes are favoring System 40 but I find that when they are not favoring 40 they will be favoring F2.

Right! In a nut shell, that is the concept of S40A.

Edited by ECD
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Don't know if you forgot, but could you please post an example of this new 3rd rule when handling the F2.

Right, but one of you correctly found a problem with my original 212 proposal so I changed it hopefully correcting that problem. Still looking for any feed back on it.

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Ellis,

Thanks for answering all of my questions. i actually came up with an interesting situation today in a shoe. I was not sure whether to stay with System 40 or switch to F2. I will give the first 20 plays and that is all that I will give. This will prevent anyone from looking ahead and deciding what to do based on the future outcomes

P 1211111 11 1

After losing to 3 in a row I jumped OTR betting against the 44 pattern

I hit a streak of 11 B and my count went from +6 to -4 so my dilemma became, do I switch to F2 or stay with system 40? I cannot take the prior shoe into account because I missed the first shoe and they washed my current shoe before starting. . Obviously the count is negative and it dropped a fair amount of points so that could warrant going into F2. I however decided to stay with system40 since it was so early in the shoe and since 40 was winning prior to the streak of 11 banks. Looking back, it could make sense to Switch to f2 since it handles 1's and streaks well but at the time I was thinking that System 40 has the OTR system built in so it would pick up on another long run if it occurred. I also stuck with 40 because I did not want to change systems so fast.

Edited by John12345
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Ellis,

Thanks for answering all of my questions. i actually came up with an interesting situation today in a shoe. I was not sure whether to stay with System 40 or switch to F2. I will give the first 20 plays and that is all that I will give. This will prevent anyone from looking ahead and deciding what to do based on the future outcomes

P 1211111 11 1

After losing to 3 in a row I jumped OTR betting against the 44 pattern

I hit a streak of 11 B and my count went from +6 to -4 so my dilemma became, do I switch to F2 or stay with system 40? I cannot take the prior shoe into account because I missed the first shoe and they washed my current shoe before starting. . Obviously the count is negative and it dropped a fair amount of points so that could warrant going into F2. I however decided to stay with system40 since it was so early in the shoe and since 40 was winning prior to the streak of 11 banks. Looking back, it could make sense to Switch to f2 since it handles 1's and streaks well but at the time I was thinking that System 40 has the OTR system built in so it would pick up on another long run if it occurred. I also stuck with 40 because I did not want to change systems so fast.

Such a shoe start after a wash is extremely rare and would have caught me by surprise also. There is no point in making rules to cover such shoes because they are so rare and such rules would hurt us in more common situations.

I would have felt quite confident starting with S40 345 right after a wash. This would have got me to +19 when the run began. But, unfortunately for me I always start 40 with 4s culprit. When I finally made my 3 bet OTR at play 13 my score would have been +10, down from +19. I would be STRONGLY inclined to quit this shoe right there with +10 in that I am extremely protective of my chips won and this shoe is very bizarre already. But I can guarantee you that I would not have lost this shoe because once having hit +16 or more I never make a bet that could take me below 0.

I would like to tell you I would have done something heroic and switched to F2 like you thought of but in all honesty +10 would have looked real good to me at that point.

BTW, The on off on off the run scheme that you brought up recently would have served you VERY well in this shoe but it doesn't lend itself well to a 345 prog. I would have been tempted but I doubt I would have took the bait.

+19 then right back down. I hate it when that happens!

Oh, and BTW, its best to get all your switching done as early as possible in a shoe so if you DID switch to F2, the middle of the 11 would have been the right time to do it.

Edited by ECD
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I couldn't help giving Aegis's 567 prog with nickels at a $25 min table more thought last night. When you have done a good job of selecting the right system, you usually have a high hit rate on both your first AND SECOND bets of your prog.

I'm thinking that instead of a 567 we might consider a 578. This is more in tune with the slope of a 345.

When we lose the whole 345 we are 4 first bets down.

When we lose a 578 we are 4 first bets down.

When we lose the 34 and win the 5 we are down only 2/3 of a first bet.

When we lose a 57 and win the 8 we are 4/5 of a first bet down.

The two are VERY similar.

The 345 serves you very well at the very common $15 tables allowing you to virtually play $5 units on a $15 table.

But the 578 serves you very well on the even more common $25 tables.

The point is that both the 345 and the 567 leave you FAR better off whe you lose the whole prog. You are only 4 first bets down compared to a 123 wherein a full prog loss puts you 6 first bets down.

Food for thought.

Edited by ECD
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Right, but one of you correctly found a problem with my original 212 proposal so I changed it hopefully correcting that problem. Still looking for any feed back on it.

Ellis,

I took a quick look at F2 and the 5 hand look back but I've evidently missed something as losing the 5 hands under F2 automatically puts you back on the "strong" side of the last five hands.

Perhaps looking at the last 5 events is what you were thinking of?

MVS

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BTW, here's some more food for thought. Consider this:

S 40A is mostly combining S40 and F2. We do that because as John 5 said one or the other wins virtually every shoe.

We base our decision on the OR count:

+ = 40

- = F2

hovering 0 = OTB4L

That covers almost all shoes EXCEPT on those rare shoes when we get a Bizarre OR count like we did in John's bizarre shoe. Its certainly not a neutral count when it goes from high + to high -.

We KNOW to start this shoe with 40. That's a given. But then the OR count goes haywire.

We might borrow a page from ADOT in this case. Play 40 until you lose 2 bets and then play F2 until you lose 2 bets.

Such a scheme would have killed John's shoe. (a 345 prog would have seen us at an incredible +38 at play 19!)

Maybe this gives us an out when the OR count proves undependable.

This way it appears we would have ALL bases covered no matter what the OR count does???

Edited by ECD
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Such a shoe start after a wash is extremely rare and would have caught me by surprise also. There is no point in making rules to cover such shoes because they are so rare and such rules would hurt us in more common situations.

I would have felt quite confident starting with S40 345 right after a wash. This would have got me to +19 when the run began. But, unfortunately for me I always start 40 with 4s culprit. When I finally made my 3 bet OTR at play 13 my score would have been +10, down from +19. I would be STRONGLY inclined to quit this shoe right there with +10 in that I am extremely protective of my chips won and this shoe is very bizarre already. But I can guarantee you that I would not have lost this shoe because once having hit +16 or more I never make a bet that could take me below 0.

I would like to tell you I would have done something heroic and switched to F2 like you thought of but in all honesty +10 would have looked real good to me at that point.

BTW, The on off on off the run scheme that you brought up recently would have served you VERY well in this shoe but it doesn't lend itself well to a 345 prog. I would have been tempted but I doubt I would have took the bait.

+19 then right back down. I hate it when that happens!

Oh, and BTW, its best to get all your switching done as early as possible in a shoe so if you DID switch to F2, the middle of the 11 would have been the right time to do it.

Ok thank you. I was only playing the 12345 prog. After the Run of 11 Banks there wsa a run of 3 players. I ended up switching to F2 after 2 players and I felt comfortable doing that because the 2's were low. And I stayed in F2 for the entire shoe. But based off what you said and looking back I think it would have made so much more sense to go to F2.

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Oh here is the rest of the shoe. I stopped at decision 41, well actually a little before but I tracked to 41. It is from BPH

P 1211111 11 1

P 2512122113

P 1

after the B11 I stuck with F2. If I had switched to System 40 towards the end then it would have hurt more than helped. because at the time my 3's were the LC so I would have been betting agsint the 3 with 40 and a 3 showed up at play 40, F2 would have won there.

I finished this shoe after falling back from +8 to +5. I stayed in F2 the entire time after the streak of 11. It seemed to make sense to me to stay with F2.

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BTW, here's some more food for thought. Consider this:

S 40A is mostly combining S40 and F2. We do that because as John 5 said one or the other wins virtually every shoe.

We base our decision on the OR count:

+ = 40

- = F2

hovering 0 = OTB4L

That covers almost all shoes EXCEPT on those rare shoes when we get a Bizarre OR count like we did in John's bizarre shoe. Its certainly not a neutral count when it goes from high + to high -.

We KNOW to start this shoe with 40. That's a given. But then the OR count goes haywire.

We might borrow a page from ADOT in this case. Play 40 until you lose 2 bets and then play F2 until you lose 2 bets.

Such a scheme would have killed John's shoe. (a 345 prog would have seen us at an incredible +38 at play 19!)

Maybe this gives us an out when the OR count proves undependable.

This way it appears we would have ALL bases covered no matter what the OR count does???

Recognize that I am recommending this 2 loss style play ONLY when we get an undependable OR count that takes big excursions in both directions. This will happen in a shoe with both large chop sections and large streak sections. Particularly shoes with both long straight and long ZZ runs.

This is rare these days but we used to see them all the time. Today maybe only one in ten shoes. But on a given day at a given casino we might see such shoes all day long.

What I like about this is that in our S40A discussion to date we've always had that hole in our OR count triggers. Probably nobody else noticed this but its been bothering me for a long time.

+ favorable: We've got that well covered with S40.

- favorable: We've got that covered with F2

Hovering 0 is the same as saying the count has short durations of + mixed with short durations of - (the shoe can't make up its mind between + and -) OTB4L covers that well.

That takes care of everything the OR count can do EXCEPT one - Large excursions in the + direction intermixed with large excursions in the - direction. I'm not good with names but we could simply call this 40/F2

So, I think we have found the final piece to the puzzle W/O having to resort to a brand new system, ie., some base system other than 40, F2 and OTB4L.

Also, I said we would switch after TWO losses. In reality we would note whether we are usually winning the 3rd bet or not WITH EACH System. If we ARE then we would simply switch after 3 losses instead of 2. That gives us mathematical advantage based on shoe history.

NOW we have a perfect way to cover EVERYTHING an OR count can do.

This makes me wonder if I should write the whole S40A manual from the perspective of the OR count.

A chapter on how to play a + count. (S40)

A chapter on how to play a - count. (F2)

A chapter on how to play a hovering 0 count (small oscillations) (OTB4L)

A chapter on how to play a count with Large excursions in both the + and - directions (large oscillations) (40/F2)

This would make S40A largely a study of the OR count, just as I think it should be. So I'm thinking a manual written from THAT perspective would be the easiest for all to understand.

Perhaps those of you who are saying: "Hurry up with the manual already!" can now see why that is maybe not such a good idea. However, NOW I feel like we've got all our ducks in a row.

Oh, I understand the part about "But Ellis, a lot of us have only one free month!" Well, I think we'd be better off to change that current membership pricing structure. I never liked it in the first place. Most beginners need more than 1 month. You can't expect to learn 30 years of experience in a month. Besides, you can get better and better at this all your life - IF you are a lifetime member. I think we should go back to ONLY having lifetime memberships. It's cheaper in the long run anyway. Fine, if we need some sort of payment plan, fine, let's create one. The way it is, I feel like we are kicking students out right in the middle of class. I don't feel its fair to put time constraints on the students OR on their teacher.

Edited by ECD
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Oh here is the rest of the shoe. I stopped at decision 41, well actually a little before but I tracked to 41. It is from BPH

P 1211111 11 1

P 2512122113

P 1

after the B11 I stuck with F2. If I had switched to System 40 towards the end then it would have hurt more than helped. because at the time my 3's were the LC so I would have been betting agsint the 3 with 40 and a 3 showed up at play 40, F2 would have won there.

I finished this shoe after falling back from +8 to +5. I stayed in F2 the entire time after the streak of 11. It seemed to make sense to me to stay with F2.

Ok thank you. I was only playing the 12345 prog. After the Run of 11 Banks there wsa a run of 3 players. I ended up switching to F2 after 2 players and I felt comfortable doing that because the 2's were low. And I stayed in F2 for the entire shoe. But based off what you said and looking back I think it would have made so much more sense to go to F2.

Right! And as I've mentioned before, I think Bet Phoenix (BP) represents an excellent microcosm of the whole picture of what I've been trying to teach you right along - that EVERY shoe in Baccarat is a product of its shuffle and the card prep. Baccarat shoes are NOT random. If shuffle machines or hand shuffles actually produced "random" cards ALL casinos (worldwide) would be closed by now. In BJ, Basic Strategy (BS) beats random cards hands down. If the cards were random all BS players (close to 100% of BJ players) would win. And there are a hell of a lot more BJ tables than Bac tables.

I get a LOT of criticism on lesser forums for saying the cards aren't random. The problem is that you have to understand the inner workings of BOTH games to understand this. Casinos CANNOT afford random cards. They would go broke in no time. These idiots play a couple of Bac shoes and they think they are suddenly world experts and declare all cards are random having no conception of the FACT that truly random cards would break every casino.

If you had simply watched the antics of BP over the last year you would quickly PROVE to yourself that the shoes are, in fact, a product of the card prep and the shuffle.

BP started with a card prep/shuffle approach that produced consistent super streak. Players quickly learned to beat this, including OUR players. BP made a few changes and ended up with consistent super chop - equally beatable.

BP went through the same learning process that the whole casino world went through. I was THERE when ALL Baccarat shoes were super streak - lots of 20 or mores in a row. I was there when all casinos went super chop. And I'm still here today when MOST casinos have learned to control the outcome through shuffle machine and card prep and hand shuffle technology. That same control is what we use to beat them. Always was and always will be.

John's two shoes are a good example of what I'm talking about! They are much the same BECAUSE they were both a product of the same shuffle type and the same card prep. End of story.

Edited by ECD
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+ favorable: We've got that well covered with S40.

- favorable: We've got that covered with F2

Hovering 0 is the same as saying the count has short durations of + mixed with short durations of - (the shoe can't make up its mind between + and -) OTB4L covers that well.

That takes care of everything the OR count can do EXCEPT one - Large excursions in the + direction intermixed with large excursions in the - direction. I'm not good with names but we could simply call this 40/F2

I played a shoe where the count kept going from -4 to -3 or -2 then back to -4. This happened about 8 times and I was doing alright in F2 but losing more bets than I was winning. So after seeing that the 1's were the LC and the 2's and 3's were really high I made the decision to go into OTB4L. I think it is important to point out that OTB4L can occur sometimes when the OR count gets stuck. I guess this situation is rare but it happened to me and switching to OTB4L made a huge difference profit wise.

Fine, if we need some sort of payment plan, fine, let's create one.

I like this idea! Especially since I just used about 90% of my bankroll for an engagement ring so I am a little broke right now. I'm hoping that I can use System40 to make up what I spent.

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I played a shoe where the count kept going from -4 to -3 or -2 then back to -4. This happened about 8 times and I was doing alright in F2 but losing more bets than I was winning. So after seeing that the 1's were the LC and the 2's and 3's were really high I made the decision to go into OTB4L. I think it is important to point out that OTB4L can occur sometimes when the OR count gets stuck. I guess this situation is rare but it happened to me and switching to OTB4L made a huge difference profit wise.

I like this idea! Especially since I just used about 90% of my bankroll for an engagement ring so I am a little broke right now. I'm hoping that I can use System40 to make up what I spent.

An excellent point and a tough one to get across. I should say "hovering" period rather than hovering 0. For instance, the shoe might begin with a straight run of 5 giving us a count of -4 and then hover -4 for the rest of the shoe and possibly never see 0. That is still an OTB4L shoe because except for the start, the count has no appreciable movement. Low in runs of 4 or more either straight or ZZ. And the casino aims for such shoes becase essentially everybody loses such shoes except hopefully us. I've seen OTB4L shoes go all day long at every table. Now, I LOVE it when THAT happens.

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Ellis,

Since we have established that we will be using the OR count on S40 to determine what system we will be playing (if not pre-determined) would you think that watching and counting the first 8-10 hands and then flat betting for another 8-10 hands to verify that you are playing the right system sound like a good safe way to play a table that you haven't had a chance to get a definate read on. Essentially the first column of 20 plays are used to verify your choice of systems before playing your u1d2m2 for the rest of the shoe.

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Ellis,

Since we have established that we will be using the OR count on S40 to determine what system we will be playing (if not pre-determined) would you think that watching and counting the first 8-10 hands and then flat betting for another 8-10 hands to verify that you are playing the right system sound like a good safe way to play a table that you haven't had a chance to get a definate read on. Essentially the first column of 20 plays are used to verify your choice of systems before playing your u1d2m2 for the rest of the shoe.

Sinatra, you mean S40A. Occassionally you might have to go as far as 20 plays but this would be very rare. I can see that happening only in a shoe with nearly no bias. Especially now that we are looking at FOUR different biases. We could call them:

a + bias (S40)

a - bias (F2)

a 0 bias (OTB4L)

a +- bias (40/F2)

I will explain what these 4 OR count types look like in greater detail in the upcoming S40A manual. But when you think about it, the OR count MUST do one of those 4 things the most. And when an OR count seems to favor two of the above at the same time it won't matter much which designated system you start with.

Hopefully, you will have a good idea BEFORE the shoe starts by looking at the previous shoes.

Next, most shoes give you a clear indication right off the bat.

Note the Hollywood shoes: We started every shoe very early, seldom changed systems, and we were right about 90% of the time. This is quite typical.

True, I don't want you to start betting until you have a clear indication. But, I don't want you to miss the 1st col of a great game either. In some of the Hollywood shoes we were already out of the shoe with our target profits while still in the first col.

Next, U1D2 M2 is too aggressive to start with. So cap it at 5 if you bet that aggressive.

But M2 is usually relegated to net betting which we don't use in S40A

So I don't see much future in M2 for S40A. I think your best choice is among.

123 45, 234 5 and 345 limited and this should be decided by which bet you are winning the most between your first and second bets.

Use 123,45 when you are clearly winning the second bet the most. Or even a 134 or a 023

Use 234 5 when you are winning both bets about the same

Use 345 when you are winning the first bet the most.

If you are not doing well on either bet, get out or change to the right system.

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