Horseshoe Casino, IN, Scorecards & Play

[davelevad]

Thanks much, Ellis, for the tip regarding entering with S40 after a 2. Yes, I see it now, and I will try it today, if the right opportunity arises.

Yeah, I see where I was too eager in that first shoe: for one, entering too far into the middle of the shoe, and also too eager to bet 4u on that first OTR. Immediate feedback correction during the game: I only went with 1u on that second OTR, rather than 3u. Glad I did that! LOL. But I definitely see the value of being cautious even in a shoe that appears to show all the signs of chop. Good lesson learned courtesy of Horseshoe.

Yes, last night I started composing my next ImSpirit post (entitled "Matching Ellis' Shadow") and am including the overall stats so far. I had to stop writing last night, because I got too sleepy - it was so late. But it should be completed and posted later this morning.

[shuttlesmasher]

Just one thing, just have been thinking, we have this great forum that can possibly give us an advantage in play. HOwever, these advantage players are banned at casinos. So if thats the case, is there a point?

[davelevad]

Just one thing, just have been thinking, we have this great forum that can possibly give us an advantage in play. HOwever, these advantage players are banned at casinos. So if thats the case, is there a point?

I asked Ellis pretty much the same question earlier, and he assures me that casinos won't bar players just playing green or black. As long as we're winning some of what the others at the table are losing, they don't mind. He does caution, though, not to keep hitting the same casino over and over again day in and day out, and of course, never make a scene about winning or draw attention to yourself. He has one student Paul Starr who plays professionally only once or twice a month in Vegas using $400 units for this very reason - so that he won't wear out his welcome.

[Guest]

Right, when I got barred both in AC and Vegas I was only playing black although I would go to double blacks upon winning 3 piles of 12 and double my base each time I won 3 piles. While this would seem like it would take forever, it can all happen very quickly in BJ when your prog is 146 then 2 8 12 and so forth. You can wipe out a chip tray several times in one all day sitting. Also I was usually playing head to head and I play lightening quick.

But here's the thing: basing at $100 chips then is almost exactly equivalent to basing at $1000 chips today. Back when I made $40,000 as a Gen Plant Mgr then, the current Plant Mgr is making $400,000. It's all relative. They aren't going to bar a $100 unit player today any more than they would bar a $10 player back then.

A better example than Paul Starr is a pro BJ player I have in Vegas averaging $3000 a day over the last two years. He conditions a table with $25 sacrifice chips, then moves in for the kill at $1000 chips, then quickly leaves. He is extremely paranoid over getting barred and well he should be. It is steady winners the casinos go after not million dollar occassional winners. Sorry, I can't mention his name anymore for obvious reason.

But $100 base players have little to fear these days as long as you move around and only pick on casinos that can afford you occassionally.

Nevertheless, you can still make a good living today with black chips and a 10 unit goal. Do the math. Ha, especially if you live in Arkansas!

Edited August 30, 2011 by Guest

[davelevad]

P.S.; Dave, try posting your +9.62% P.A. at ImSpirit. I'm sure you'll get a flood of PMs and emails from well meaning but totally misguided souls who think they know what they are talking about. But you will also get actual posts from guys who DO know what they are talking about.

On second thought, maybe you better not unless you are fairly thick skinned.

I've posted the latest session report and summary stats at ImSpirit:

Session 5: Matching Ellis’ Shadow

Previous session reports:

Session 1: Rivers Casino, Des Plaines, IL

Session 2: Tough Horseshoe

Session 3: Out of Scorecards!

Session 4: Gaining My Edge on Horseshoe

[davelevad]

Session #6:

Horseshoe 08/30/11 Tue

For the faint of heart, read no further - the following is not pretty.

I lost 2 shoes today at Horseshoe in very unceremonious fashion. I had been doing so well with System 40 the past few sessions there that I was in the seek-out-the-chop-on-the-tote mode, but this time, it didn't work too well. Below are my scorecards and play-by-play. I know I didn't play the games well at all, so by all means, please correct me.

Of course, one big mistake was I broke the cardinal -8u stop loss rule, since during the last few sessions, it had worked out okay for me, but not this time. Even if I had stopped at -8u, I probably wouldn't have been able to recover anyway. Today was just one of those days.

At this point, I'm not so much concerned about the lost money, though, of course, it stings. I'm more concerned about whether I can learn from my mistakes so that I can win back these losses and then some. The purpose of this learning phase is to make all of my mistakes with relatively low stakes, so that I won't make them when much larger stakes are on the line. Obviously, I still have a long ways to go, and while I'm eager to get back on the winning track, I need to regain my confidence that I can do so at all.

Ironically, my first losing session came after I posted my last ImSpirit post about matching Ellis' PA/AC scores. Life certainly has a way of humbling (humiliating?) you.

Shoe 1: Net -12.50u

Around 2PM

In the high limit room, where new cards are used for every new shoe.

I see the game had just started with only 1s and 2s. Since I had much success with S40-3 so far in recent sessions, I jump in. I wait for a 2 before betting at hand 17, as Ellis had suggested. It loses, and remembering to be more cautious in my bet progression, I flat bet 1 for the time being. The OTB bet at hand 19 loses, so I should next be in mode 2. I must have been confused during playing the game, because I'm still in mode 3 at hand 23. I should've gone OTR at hand 23, but instead, I went OTR at hand 24 - which is an error in play on my part. Unfortunately, the error costs me dearly, and I lose 6 in a row.

At hand 26, I hit what should have been my -8u stop, but I press on. At this point, I see the shoe seems to have turned streaky, so at hand 27, I start F2 on B side. This bet also corresponds with going OTR in Sys40-2. Unfortunately, F2 doesn't do so well, and I lose the switch-over to B at hand 34. I immediately go back to P, where I am now in F3. I'm getting low on chips, so I'm afraid to make the 2u bet. Instead, I'm just flat betting 1u. I gain a little confidence that F3 is the right system now, so I make the 2u bet at hand 41, but it loses, as my luck would have it. I'm afraid to make a 3u bet at hand 42, but use a 1u bet instead, which wins, as my luck would have it!

By hand 51, I lose 3-in-a-row, so I switch to B and win. I don't know why I go back to F2 at this point. I think I was confused during play, having lost 3-in-a-row in hands 49-51, and emotionally a bit distraught since I'm down so much. Unfortunately, this error in play costs me, since I lose the following switch-over to P at hand 55, and also the immediate return bet on B.

By hand 57, I notice the chop appears to have returned, so I start S40-3 again. For awhile, it works, but another 4 shows up by hand 66, right when I have the courage to make the 2u and 3u bets at hands 65 and 66. I don't have the guts to make a 4u bet at hand 67, which would have won. For the rest of the shoe, I regain a few chips using standard S40.

Part of what really hurt me in this shoe was my mostly flat betting. Had I been more bold and used a 1234, I would've done better, as I would've won many of the 2 and 3 bets. But then again, the way I played it, had I used a 1234 from the start, or just a 112112, I would've stopped out very quickly.

What put me into S40-3 mode was the high 1s and 2s at game start, and so, I was anticipating the shoe to be mostly choppy, but unfortunately, it became rather streaky right after I started playing. The same thing has happened to me in several shoes at Horseshoe now, but this was the first time I couldn't recover by the end.

Shoe 2: Net: -14.30u

Around 3:30 PM

A game has just started at a table in the regular annex. I notice the tote board with mostly 1s, 2s, and only one 3s. It looks like this table will be choppy. I missed placing the first bet on P at hand 17 after the 2 Bs, because I was having to bet over-the-shoulder and couldn't make the bet in time. So, I pretended to have won that bet and started betting B at hand 18. After the second 3 forms at hands 17-19, I notice there are more 2s and 3s than 1s. So I decide by hand 22 to try OTB4L. Hand 22 wins, but unfortunately, I lose the next 3 bets. In hindsight, staying with S40 would've been correct. After noticing the ZZ chop, at hand 26, I restart S40, but quickly lose to the first 4 that shows up promptly thereafter. I decide to wait at this point and let the shoe develop.

The 1s and 2s appear to have re-established choppy bias after the 4 had formed, so I start S40-3 again at hand 42. Unfortunately, a long P run of length 8 commences at hand 44, and while I win the OTR bet at hand 47, I don't have the courage to make it a 3u bet, which would have won. I miss out on the P run entirely, betting against it in S40 mode. After losing the 2u bet at hand 49, I don't have the courage to make the next OTR bet at hand 50, and I decide just to wait out the run. Hand 52 chops, so I start S40 again now in mode 2, but then I lose the OTR bet when a 3 immediately forms. Just my luck!

So, basically, everything that could go wrong went wrong today.

- Where I should have placed bigger bets due to the progression, they would have won.

- Where I actually placed bigger bets when being more confident, they wound up losing.

- The killer patterns seemed to always appear right after I started a system.

- The bias would change right after asserting itself long enough to make me want to bet on it.

- Switching to a different system wouldn't work after I start using it, but after switching back, then it would've worked.

- The initial chop in the shoe did not accurately predict the nature of the bias of the remainder of the shoe.

- And of course, I made a few errors in play execution, though I think even if I played it correctly, I would have still lost this session.

I notice that, true, the killer patterns for the NOR systems are statistically more rare, since they are longer events, but when they occur, I lose a good many chips to them in the process of their coming out. Also, when they come out in bunches in a shoe, it really hurts.

As always, your feedback and comments are greatly appreciated.

Also, the question arises: Do you think this Horseshoe is playable at all? I seem to encounter the toughest games there, and I've lost more there than anywhere else. Should I simply give up playing there altogether and admit defeat? Or is there something about their shoes you can see can be consistently beatable with some other approach, maybe ADNet? I sure wish I could "conquer" Horseshoe and win my losses back (from both last year and now this year), but this pony seems to defy being tamed.

Thanks much.

[daytrader77459]

Hello, Davelevad,

Kudos to you for posting your losing games, for your decision-making biases and sharing with BTC members more learning experiences. This is a great part of what makes the BTC website and its membership most valuable.

Regarding your recent two shoes both losing, and you were compounding your own execution errors, and losing your big actual bets, but winning your big "virtual" bets - I am certain we have all been there and done that many times also! So I have great empathy for your post tonite.

In my experience playing baccarat daily - I have found that changing NOR systems in mid shoe have been more damaging than helpful to my bankroll. Once I have isolated what I feel are strong table and shoe bias as emphasized by Ellis, I almost always stick with the NOR system I selected up front. I know Ellis said that switching is okay - if there is a much more stronger NOR system running alongside. However, if not, probably better to stick with your initial NOR system.

For myself, your two shoes would have definitely been S40 shoes. After committing to the correct M2 or M3 - I stick to it. If lose 3 bets, I go 1u OTR. If win that 1u bet, I stop. Then if OTR continues again after my 1u win, I will bet OTR 1u until that run stops. Then go back to S40 (M2 or M3). I find that this simplifies my system selection decision making - and really helps me to focus on determining M2 or M3 and whether to go OTR or not. Of course, I am a very conservative player using 112 - until I am ahead +5u or +6u. Then I try 123 - if get to +10u, may try 234 as per Ellis. But - I can tell you it is NOT EASY to go 234 for my internal biases. But I am learning more to let go - and trust the NOR systems and the bet progressions.

By the way - for me, I hardly ever hit (-8u) in a losing shoe. Most often, it is (-8u) from the HIGH equity of that shoe - I call this "drawdown" from max equity. Most of my shoes have drawdowns of (-6u) to (-8u) from max equity highs if I am "loose". In fact, being "loose" almost always end up being "lose". Most often now, I use the half decade rule even in the first 2 columns. Using 112 - I find I can hit +3u to +5u consistently. After my first loss (or 2nd if I am ahead from other shoes), I often just quit the shoe. I am in it to scalp winning portions. Sometimes my +3u can float up to +8u or +9 on a TT or ZZ or B or P run. Other times, I exit at +2u. Then look for new strong shoe bias. I know Ellis and more experienced players can strongly argue that I am giving up too much potential profit by this tight playing style.

I just don't have the mental flexibility yet - to allow for greater bankroll equity volatility. Hopefully Ellis will continue to help me sharpen and improve on this specific weak aspect of my play in baccarat.

Thanks again for sharing!

Daytrader77459

[d0ma1n]

Hi Dave,

Great post ! I have been following your post since you came back from the seminar.

Don't worry, you are not alone here .. everyone have a bad lousy day in Bac !

If it is smooth sailing all the way, we would not need BTC, coz everyone can be an easy winner.

I am not going to comment on your play, but just want to share my experience and something interesting I have read before.

I guess to be a long term player in bac, we need to have the following Es (hhmm.. maybe that's why BTC founder start with E as well, Ellis ! )

1. EXACT - Always know the right system and mode. Always stop when losing first 2 bets. Check the last 8-10 hands, and see what is HAPPENING NOW !

2. EMOTION - Don't catch your loses. Have a stop lost -8u to -15u (depend on your bankroll)

3. EGO - Put your ego away. Always protect your winning +10u to +15u

4. EXHAUSTED - Always limits your shoe session. For me, is 4-5 shoes per session. Stop and REST !

5. EXPEDITE - DO NOT play when you have limited time and rushing ( you may lose all your winning in one stupid shoe !)

6. ESTEEM - DO NOT lose confidence when you are in a downswing ( eg: losing 6 in a row and suddenly a 3u chips become very heavy to place on the next bet )

Setting realistic GOALS

DO NOT set monetary goal as we have no control over monetary goal.

The reason is that when you don't achieve it, your EMOTION will run over you, and you will start making foolish decision.

Always set REALISTIC GOAL which can improve your confidence like :

i) Improve your hit rate / player advantage

ii) Focus on making the right decision in a shoe rather than focus on chasing on your loses

Eg: Every shoe I will focus to increase my PA to +10%. If I can maintain that, then will push my goal to 15-20%.

Until now, I am still average at 4% (after 27 shoes), to me is consider good as I know I am better than the Fixed Deposit offer by the local bank which is less than

4% and you need to put your money in there for 12-months, and I can do that in 1 shoe !

And last, always have sufficient bankroll.

I am playing $30 per unit now. But my initial bankroll is $3,000 which give me a huge buffer when running a bad shoe or session.

When I am in a -8u position, I can still choose to restart the shoe with a new prog, or better quit and wait for the next good shoe.

But the point is, if you lose -8u or -15u in a shoe, you still have strong bank roll to support your next battle.

Again, DO NOT chase your loses, take a good rest, and a good shoe will come back.

Hope this will help in your long term play !

All the best

Cheers

d0ma1n

[Guest]

Well, I should have warned you that a career start like yours virtually always produces an over confidence problem. But let's face it, the first shoe was a shoe from hell. Unfortunately you missed the only good part and then as if to add insult to injury you messed up your third actual bet. When starting a choppy shoe after a 2 in a row you want to start with a 123 straight down so that it takes a 5 to beat you. Remember? Then that 4 puts you in Mode 2 which would have at least broke you even for a while. But the 4145, while your 3 bet would have pulled you through it, we get out when we are surviving on 3 bets alone, even if we ARE up a couple units. This shoe goes from a +6 OR in the first col, down to -3 in the second col. This is like an emergency quit signal but you should have got out with a +1 at least.

Recognize that this stems from your previous session. In your first shoe that session you turned a shoe around from worse than -8 to a winner. While gallant, this is going to lead to eventual disaster. -8+ shoes have a dismal return rate. But if you succeed once, you are encouraged to try again. Not good!

The second shoe Daytrader is exactly right. System 40 would have got you +10 before the 8 in a row.

But a shoe from hell puts your head in the wrong place. It's not like horse back riding. You don't just get back on the horse even though shoes from hell give you an incredible urge to do so. This is not the time to go back betting. The game is tough enough playing in normal comfort and relaxed.

When you fall off your horse it is time to take a break and regroup. The damn casinos are still going to be there tomorrow!

Now, a question??? What time is the morning card prep at that casino? What kind of shoe does it present? And how consistent is it? Un huh, you don't know? Why don't you know?

You think I'm being too hard? That's because I see potential.

Edited August 31, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

WOW dOmain! An absolutely excellent post!

And right, it happens to everyone, including me!

[Guest]

I keep saying, only play when you are in tip top shape. I usually play in 3 or 4 day trips. I always bring a deck of cards. I test my readiness in the privacy of my room. If I can't count down a deck of cards in 13 seconds I'm in no shape to play. No, I'm not going to use card counting in a casino. It's just a mental dexterity test.

Casinos have a way of increasing your adrenaline. But high adrenaline can fool you into thinking you are in good shape when you really aren't.

Your travel to the casino can be fatiguing. But entry into the casino can work like an adrenaline pump. Your body may be willing BUT, where is your mind at? Perhaps the last thing you want to do is run to the nearest table. Get your bearings. Get the lay of the land. What are the tables doing? Which is the most biased table. Can you readily pick your system and mode? Or is your mind still back on the road someplace? It's not a golf tournament. One big advantage we have is we can play when and where we want to. But it is only an advantage when we take advantage of it.

[davelevad]

Thanks Daytrader, d0main, and Ellis for all the great advice, support, and tips.

Yeah, I recall reading a statement from a counselor who works with those addicted to gambling: he said the worst thing that can happen to a person when he starts to play is to win, because forever after, he will burn through bankroll after bankroll trying to win again. Well, he said it more elegantly than that.

Yeah, I think Ellis is right that I need to step back from this for awhile. I can sense that I haven't truly grasped where his advantage comes from yet, and I would just be gambling if I proceed, probably spiraling down into chasing my losses. More than anyone else, I know that any mechanical system does no better than always betting Banker in the long run, and that to consistently win, one must utilize something outside of the game itself. That "something else" is harder to master than I realized. Ellis makes it look so easy, of course, but masters always do.

I had wanted to play every day this week, to treat it like a full 5 day/week job, just to see what it would feel like, to see if I could consistently reach a modest target each day consistently. I guess it only took a couple of days to prove to myself I can't do it yet.

It's funny: yesterday, blind Luck won, because the guy sitting next to me was truly “gambling,†wagering huge stacks on purely intuitive guesses. He was quite a showman, too. Most of the time, as it turned out, he was betting against me, and hence was winning left and right. He even won 2 dragons in a row. He walked away with several dozen times his buy-in. Later, other folks must have also noticed how much I was losing, and they started to bet against me, too. Lucky them. Yesterday, I was the dupe in the “bet against the loser†method. LOL

Ellis - with regards to your questions about card prep at Horseshoe, yes, I asked 3 people (2 pit bosses and 1 dealer) when the new cards came in. The pit bosses said once every few days but didn't know when, and the dealer said every day early in the morning around 6 AM. There's just no way I can be there that early in the morning to verify, so I probably should not play there at all, then.

But in the high limit room where they let the players touch the cards, new cards are used every shoe. Both Shoe #1 in Session 4 (08/26/11) and Shoe #1 in Session 6 (08/30/11) were from these new card shoes, and I had lost both.

Well, for now, Horseshoe remains one casino that just can't be beat! At least by me, anyway LOL.

[davelevad]

By the way - for me, I hardly ever hit (-8u) in a losing shoe. Most often, it is (-8u) from the HIGH equity of that shoe - I call this "drawdown" from max equity. Most of my shoes have drawdowns of (-6u) to (-8u) from max equity highs if I am "loose". In fact, being "loose" almost always end up being "lose". Most often now, I use the half decade rule even in the first 2 columns. Using 112 - I find I can hit +3u to +5u consistently. After my first loss (or 2nd if I am ahead from other shoes), I often just quit the shoe. I am in it to scalp winning portions. Sometimes my +3u can float up to +8u or +9 on a TT or ZZ or B or P run. Other times, I exit at +2u. Then look for new strong shoe bias. I know Ellis and more experienced players can strongly argue that I am giving up too much potential profit by this tight playing style.

This is interesting - thanks. With regard to the -8u SL ... I find it striking that in all of my sessions at Horseshoe, I have always hit -8u in the first shoe I play there - without exception - and always within the first few bets going into a game. That is, in the 4 sessions I've played there, my first shoe of each had lows exceeding -8u, and including my 2nd shoe from yesterday, that makes a total of 5 shoes which would have stopped out. Had I taken the -8u losses in each of those shoes, I would be down -40u from my losing shoes there.

In reality, I fought back in 3 of those shoes, going past -8u and eventually being able to break-even or +1u, and my actual total losses were thus limited to the two losing shoes from yesterday, a total of -26u. So, it was worth breaking the -8u SL rule in these shoes so far at Horseshoe, because doing so essentially saved me 14u.

Of course, I'm not trying to justify breaking the -8u SL rule, and the fact that I'm getting drawn down to beyond -8u so often says I'm obviously doing something "wrong," even though in each situation, I'm doing the best I can in terms of table selection, watching for consistent biases, and choosing the right system (which happened to always be S40, incidentally).

I suppose what the drawdowns are really saying is that most of the shoes at Horseshoe are not consistent enough to reliably play S40, because the bias simply changes too much and fast. Or, that if I see indications to play S40, I should bet anti-S40, LOL.

[davelevad]

And last, always have sufficient bankroll.

I am playing $30 per unit now. But my initial bankroll is $3,000 which give me a huge buffer when running a bad shoe or session.

When I am in a -8u position, I can still choose to restart the shoe with a new prog, or better quit and wait for the next good shoe.

But the point is, if you lose -8u or -15u in a shoe, you still have strong bank roll to support your next battle.

Again, DO NOT chase your loses, take a good rest, and a good shoe will come back.

Thanks for the great "life-lessons" in baccarat. Definitely the game teaches one about himself.

Wow - you have a 100u bankroll with you at the table! Yeah, Mark Maverick suggests having that kind of bankroll, too. I'm ultra conservative, though, and only bring at most 20u-30u with me to the casino, and I leave my ATM card at home. But it's good to know that so far, my losses are within the -8u to -15u you suggest. And yes, the best advice after losing is: take a break.

[davelevad]

The second shoe Daytrader is exactly right. System 40 would have got you +10 before the 8 in a row.

Hmm - I replay Shoe 2 (08/30/11) in the below using Daytrader's rules:

S40 mode 2/3, 112 progression to start, his OTR rules (1u OTR, pause, then if next OTR would've won, keep betting 1u until run ends)

I believe he would have chosen mode 3 because up to the point where I had entered, mode 3 wins more than loses. He sticks with mode 3 from there on, per his rules.

He would've used 112 throughout, since the score never breaks +5u.

I only get +3u before the Player 8 run, and since at that point I don't know it's going to streak, I'd be back -1u before I go OTR.

At the end, I get +2u. Yes, certainly better than -14u, lol.

Well, if I did anything wrong in the replay, let me know, thanks.

[Guest]

Well, I wasn't referring to the 112. I don't recommend that. I was talking a 123. Had you started after the 2 at play 39 and bet 1 unit for your first OTR, as you did and then return to your 123, you would have been at +8 at the top of the 8 which at least would have saved you from a losing shoe.

[davelevad]

Here's a replay of Shoe 1 (08/30/11), the "shoe from hell," using DayTrader's S40 rules.

S40 mode 2/3, 112 progression to start, his OTR rules (1u OTR, pause, then if next OTR would've won, keep betting 1u until run ends)

Like in Shoe 2, I believe he would have chosen mode 3 because up to the point where I had entered, mode 3 wins more than loses. He sticks with mode 3 from there on, per his rules.

He would've used 112 throughout, since the score never reaches +5u.

He would've stopped out with -8u at hand 27. (In my original live play, I hit -8u in hand 26.) Assuming he played onward with the same system and mode until the end, his final score would be -13u. (My final live score was -12u.)

I'm not saying at all that this is how Daytrader would've actually played this shoe, but since he identified it as a S40-3 shoe and if he played it as such without changing systems/modes, it would've lost at a minimum -8u due to the SL.

[muling427]

Well, for now, Horseshoe remains one casino that just can't be beat! At least by me, anyway LOL.

Hi Dave,

I want to thank you for yours posts and I understand what you are feeling; because of course I did the same.

I am playing NOR at Dublingbet for training, as it is the only live real casino online. There is only a table and I could never find any trend or bias from one shoe to another.

So I have to wait for 10 to 20 hands to start playing and feel the shoe...................

I was keeping losing and thought it was impossible to win at this casino. And last week, something happened I started to win and increase my bankroll, from 1000 to 4600 € , in a week. I cannot tell you how many shoes, I don't keep any records. I am playing 25 € unit. flat bet and 123 progression , rarely 234.

What happened...........................? Simply I got the discipline to quit when I lose, not chasing loss anymore and profit of good shoes ( 20 to 30 units). Easy to say, but difficult to achieve. I had some losing shoes -8, some -2/3 units,some +2,3.......8 units and few 10,20,30 units.

You had few winning sessions and recovered twice from losing ones, so you got confidence until this last session where you lost. You should have quit earlier in the game, if you only flat bet, it means that you are not sure what to do..........just quit. Anyway, your bankroll is still positive....................

Ellis and other members posts in this thread are golden words for beginners like you and me.

The difference between a player and a gambler is psychology and discipline.

I am sure you can win at Horseshoe casino!

Bernard

[davelevad]

Well, I wasn't referring to the 112. I don't recommend that. I was talking a 123. Had you started after the 2 at play 39 and bet 1 unit for your first OTR, as you did and then return to your 123, you would have been at +8 at the top of the 8 which at least would have saved you from a losing shoe.

Ok, thanks - I replay Shoe 2 (08/30/11) using your above rules.

Yes, I would be at +8u at hand 42 before the Player 8 run, actually, +9u with the 2u P win at hand 44.

Playing onward in mode 2 (since mode 3 had lost at hand 32), I bet 2u at hand 47 (since the last OTR bet lost 1u at hand 32), then bet 1 more OTR, then bet on/off the run 1u until the run ends. Throughout the run, I hit my high of +9u several times, which is a good signal to exit w/ +9u.

If playing this live, I would've only bet 1u at hand 47 instead of 2u, since if I lost a 2u bet there, my score would have dropped below +5u.

Actually, if playing this live, I would've only bet 1u at hand 30, which lost, and I'd quit with a score of +5u.

Well, +5u is definitely better than -14u, lol.

I think what hurt me the most in this shoe when playing live was switching to OTB4L at hand 22, due to the high 2s and 3s and low 1s. I was trying to use event frequencies to choose the right system, so I had a good reason for the switch. Unfortunately in hindsight, sticking to S40 was the better choice, even though from the event frequencies, I think OTB4L was what the shoe was pointing to.

[davelevad]

I am sure you can win at Horseshoe casino!

Bernard

Thanks for the support, muling! And congratulations on your fabulous winnings ... I hope soon I can continue reporting the same! Wow - and doing it online - must be that much more challenging! Ellis always said not to play online, because you have no table selection and are playing a random game. But if you're winning consistently that way, more power to ya! Perhaps you should write a tutorial about how you're able to win online. Are you simply looking at the bias in the last 20 hands and playing the appropriate system to match the bias?

[daytrader77459]

Hi, Davelevad,

Big apology for my post earlier on 2:14am. I meant to type OBL but typed in S40 instead. It was late and I had been studying your posts where you had typed S40. You started play on hand 18.

After 1st 16 hds - 1s occurred 5x - above normal. 2s occurred 4x - above normal. 3s occurred 1x - normal. This is a setup for OBL.

I will post my play-by-play for you later today. My scanner is not up and running - will use alternate means. Thank you.

Daytrader77459

[davelevad]

Hi, Davelevad,

Big apology for my post earlier on 2:14am. I meant to type OBL but typed in S40 instead. It was late and I had been studying your posts where you had typed S40. You started play on hand 18.

After 1st 16 hds - 1s occurred 5x - above normal. 2s occurred 4x - above normal. 3s occurred 1x - normal. This is a setup for OBL.

I will post my play-by-play for you later today. My scanner is not up and running - will use alternate means. Thank you.

Daytrader77459

Thanks, Daytrader - looking forward to it.

[daytrader77459]

Hi, Davelevad,

Sorry - had to go to New Thread to upload my jpg image. Couldn't upload shoe image on this thread using the http:// url method. I just used Davelevad Horseshoe OBL as new thread. Feel free to let me know if there is an easier way to upload jpg images. Thank you.

Daytrader77459

[daytrader77459]

Davelevad,

Pls check your PM. Thanks.

Daytrader77459

[BigVic]

Hi, Davelevad,

Sorry - had to go to New Thread to upload my jpg image. Couldn't upload shoe image on this thread using the http:// url method. I just used Davelevad Horseshoe OBL as new thread. Feel free to let me know if there is an easier way to upload jpg images. Thank you.

Daytrader77459

Where's the thread? Would you mind sharing with the rest of us? Thank you.