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Maybe fate is on my side. Arrived last night and while walking to dinner table, saw a roulette table with 5 in a row red, so I placed 1 $100 bet on red and won, then went to dinner. After dinner, stopped at two tables running a ZZ pattern and placed $25 bets and won both of them. Then I went to the baccarat room and saw a table at play 44, it was 22 bank and 20 player. The player had won 3 in a row and I noticed all of the runs were odd numbers. I watched the player go to 4, then placed a $50 bet on player and won. I went to bed winning every single table and up $200 for the night on a $100 buy in. This morning, I woke up to a very good business call and then saw this update. I'm ready to do it!

I was hoping you'd see it Mike.

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> Here's another simple way to play that can be very successful. Ann, my

> playing partner, and I once made it to 40 winning shoes in a row

> playing this way at 5 different casinos.

>

> Bet a simple 1,2 primary progression that 1's will stay 1 and 2's will

> stay 2. But when you get a 3, go back to betting 1 that the 3 will go

> to 4. If it doesn't, go back to your original 1,2 bet scheme until you

> get another 3. This time bet 2 that the 3 will go to 4 and so on.

>

> Of course if the shoe is favoring chop you may want to reverse your

> secondary prog from betting 3's will go to 4 to 3's will stay 3.

>

> This is a highly effective system with minimal risk in spite of its

> extreme simplicity.

>

> Give it a try. It worked for us. Oh, I forgot, if you win your

> secondary prog bet because the 3 went to 4 just stay on the run until

> you lose. Who knows, the damn thing might go 12! It's so simple its

> stupid BUT highly effective. "

Ellis, isn't that kind of like S40M2 then OTR til a loss?

"kind of like it" yes Glenn. Played the basic way the side selection is the same. But the betting is totally different with the prog within a prog feature.

But, if you played S40M2 for a lot of shoes you would only win maybe a third.

Basic S40 you are betting different and you will see it is far easier to determine mode between 1,2 and 3. Seems like a small difference but Basic S40 plays ANY kind of shoe, chop, streak or neutral and wins very close to 100% after just a little bit of practice W/O relying so heavily on 3 bets. Most shoes you don't even get to a 3 bet.

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"kind of like it" yes Glenn. Played the basic way the side selection is the same. But the betting is totally different with the prog within a prog feature.

But, if you played S40M2 for a lot of shoes you would only win maybe a third.

Basic S40 you are betting different and you will see it is far easier to determine mode between 1,2 and 3. Seems like a small difference but Basic S40 plays ANY kind of shoe, chop, streak or neutral and wins very close to 100% after just a little bit of practice W/O relying so heavily on 3 bets. Most shoes you don't even get to a 3 bet.

Precisely the kind of " insight" ( a.k.a. Methodology) which illustrates how over 30 years of play, it is EZ to " forget" simple strategies for sucess...

Good stuff, indeed!

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"kind of like it" yes Glenn. Played the basic way the side selection is the same. But the betting is totally different with the prog within a prog feature.

But, if you played S40M2 for a lot of shoes you would only win maybe a third.

Basic S40 you are betting different and you will see it is far easier to determine mode between 1,2 and 3. Seems like a small difference but Basic S40 plays ANY kind of shoe, chop, streak or neutral and wins very close to 100% after just a little bit of practice W/O relying so heavily on 3 bets. Most shoes you don't even get to a 3 bet.

Thanks Ellis,

It seems this might be the way to go instead of 4D if it has a near 100% win ratio. I take it that the mode (1,2 or 3) follows the hand outcomes as they shoe progresses?

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Hello

A breath of fresh air. Something easier to play live rather than 4d.

Is it possible to please post a shoe with good instructions to follow please.

Visual is a real help. Along with typed instructions.

Looking forward to testing this. 4d is a headache to try and play live.

Thanks Ellis for the lightning bolts.

Dazza

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Hi Ellis or Keith i 3rd it can you post a shoe and more details and an updated system directions and details ...there are no 5 dollars shoes lol do we do 12 shoes @ $25 and go from there ...i'm up for the challenge. by the way this isnt a sprint you can play 2 shoes a day or if you win 20 units it can count as 4 shoes if i have a million on March 4 2014 or April 14 2014 does it matter its a MILLION DOLLARS winning 5 units a shoe!!!! most of you do that in your first 10 hands!!!

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I've always fancied this idea from a great manual I read 10+ years ago:

E. Clifton Davis’ How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Days Plan

Once you are winning 5 units or more per shoe – try this no risk plan:

Day 1: Play 10 shoes @ $5 units = wins $250 – this gives you 10 - $25 unit buy in.

Day 2: Play 10 shoes @ $25 units = wins $1,250 – this gives you 12.5 - $100 unit buy in.

Day 3: Play 10 shoes @ $100 units = wins $5,000 – this gives you 10 - $500 unit buy in.

Day 4: Play 10 shoes @ $500 units = wins $25,000 – this gives you 10 - $1,000 unit buy in.

Day 5: Play 10 shoes @ $1,000 units = wins $50,000 – this gives you 10 - $5,000 unit buy in.

Day 6-10: Play 40 shoes @ $5,000 units = wins $1,081,500

Winning a million dollars at Baccarat is an extremely common occurrence.

It gets even better.

Look carefully at days 4 and 5, at the end of which you would have $125,000 going into day 6

Depending on table Max limits, you could wrap up your Million$$ as early as day 7

Or, avoid the " airline rebooking fee" for your ticket home, stay the whole 10 days and grab an extra $1,000,000++

----- What would 007 do?

ELLIS, HAVE YOU PURPOSELY BEEN HOLDING OUT ON US ????????

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Played 17 shoes today. Won 10 of them, lost 7 of them. I should have stopped after shoe 15, when I was up 30 black for the day, but I was stubborn, hoping to be up 50 units today and ended up playing purple and losing my shirt in the last two shoes because I was tired. I was playing for +10 for the shoes, as they were all very choppy, however I don't think there was a shoe that I wasn't up 5 units, even the losing ones. Maybe there is more than one lesson here. Tomorrow is another day, will try again.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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Good job!!!

All good questions and comments guys and yes I will post some shoes. But first a word to Mike.

Mike, yes "good job" except: You and I both know you have a discipline problem. There is a cure for that: You've got to stop looking at the game as a sport and start looking at it as a JOB. The challenge is NOT with the casino. The real challenge is with yourself. Your JOB is to make 5 units a shoe. Sure, there will be shoes where it is obvious the shoe will support more than 5 - sometimes a lot more, Fine, but CAPTURE 5.

Never raise your unit on a loss. Only raise your unit when you've earned the right to do so on WINS.

Now settle down and lets have a good day today. That is your job for today.

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Ok, now for the comments:

I guess I wrote those Basic S40 rules back in 1993 or 94. Ann and I won the 40 shoes each in late 94 or early 95.

Our whole goal back then was to average +5 or more per shoe. That very simple system did exactly that very successfully.

But the students took the attitude: OK been there, done that. Now let's go for +10!

And we've been struggling ever since to get to +10. A perfect SAP player averages +6, 2Hi. A perfect NOR+ player averages in the +9 to +11, 6 Hi.

BUT, only about maybe 15% of our students can play perfect SAP or perfect NOR+.

In hindsight, the LAST thing we should have done was to go to a far more complex system with the goal of improving our shoes won rate to nearly 100%.

We've come full circle haven't we.

The guys who have tried it know that the 4D, as complex as it is, still only performs about as well as the original Basic S40 I just posted the rules for.

So why, in God's name are we beating our heads against that particular brick wall when we were already there 20 years ago???

Maybe 1 out of 6 of us will ever be able to play the 4D in a casino. And of those, NONE will be able to play it any length of time.

But BaS40 anybody can play all day long.

So here's what I think we should do: And I think the tide of opinion is with me:

Those BaS40 rules are 20 years old. We've learned a thing or two since then. I think the MOST important thing we have learned is how to use the OR count to determine mode.

That simple task is what we should be concentrating on.

Ann and I did well just always playing in Mode 2. We would have done even better though if we had known how to select mode between M1,M2 and M3. We didn't know then but we know now. Let's concentrate on making that one simple improvement which we already know works.

This way the whole class can join in, learn and contribute rather than just the top 5 or 10%.

AND, we will have staying power in the casino plus have a little fun. The 4D is NOT fun. BaS40 IS fun and simple and it wins.

What do you guys think? I think I already know.

Ha, Keith probably thinks I've lost my mind. No but I came close. Sit at your desk and play the 4D for a few days. THAT is how you lose your mind.

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Here's a simple way to look at the math: I'm just doing Mode 2 - the exact same way Ann and I played this:

There is an avg of 18 1's per shoe and we win 1 unit on every 1 = +18

There is an avg of 9 2s per shoe and we win 1 unit on every 2 = +9

So just looking at 1's and 2's we are at + 27.

So if we just went as far as our 1,2 prog the question becomes how much do we lose on a 3 or more.

Well we always win the top circle of the 3 so we are +1 at that point. Then we lose a 1 so we are even at that point. Then we lose a 2 so we lose a total of 2 for every 3 or more.

There are 9 3 or mores per shoe = - 18.

See that? We are still up +9 on avg.

Now our object is to get some of our -18 on 3 or mores back.

So we bet 1 unit under our 3. We will win half the time and lose half the time. But when we lose that 1, under the next 3 we bet 2. Should we lose that, next 3 we bet 3. We are merely trying to break even. So on the half of our 3s that go to 4 we make 1 of those -18 units back. On the 3s where we lose the 1 and then eventually win the 2, we make another unit back.

So yes, it is possible to get 3 3s before you get a 4 or more. In that rare case if you insist on continuing to bet that 3 will go to 4, you will lose your 123.

That would put you down 6 but remember that you started out up +9. Are you starting to get it?

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So yes, it is possible to get 3 3s before you get a 4 or more. In that rare case if you insist on continuing to bet that 3 will go to 4, you will lose your 123.

Very very interesting Ellis. Do you always go back to a 1 bet after losing your 123 OTR (if you decide to go against 3's exclusively)? Would you ever recommend to keep going playing U1D2? I know the idea is to get +5 a shoe "breaking even" on 3's. But after playing U1D2 for so long I see just how powerful it can be. I don't know, just thinking out loud. Maybe that would hurt the +5 goal. I guess it would help and hurt at the same time.

Back to back shoes with heavy 3's wouldn't be good. Hmm - but then you would go s40 M1 or M3 I presume...

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But that was all assuming we don't use our heads at all and play it the same way every time no matter what.

But today we have more skills:

Take just that one bet where we bet a 1 under every 3.

Today we know better than that: If the shoe is streaky (-OR Count) fine, we bet 1 unit that 3s go to 4 (Mode 2) because in a streaky shoe more than half will.

But in a choppy shoe (+OR Count) today we know to bet 3s stay 3 (Mode 3) because more than half of them will.

And in streaky shoes with low 2s we know to play Mode 1 which kills streaky shoes low in 2s which most streaky shoes are.

Then comes the question Do we stay on runs once on them or do we stop betting until the run ends.

Well, streaky shoes we stay on runs, choppy shoes lets be happy with our 1 unit.

The results 20 years ago were great just playing one way every shoe.

But today we can apply the skills we learned meantime to do even better.

I think that learning how to apply those skills perfectly will be enoughy of a challenge for the average student.

THAT much anyone who applies theirself can learn. The 4D? No way.

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Very very interesting Ellis. Do you always go back to a 1 bet after losing your 123 OTR (if you decide to go against 3's exclusively)? Would you ever recommend to keep going playing U1D2? I know the idea is to get +5 a shoe "breaking even" on 3's. But after playing U1D2 for so long I see just how powerful it can be. I don't know, just thinking out loud. Maybe that would hurt the +5 goal. I guess it would help and hurt at the same time.

Back to back shoes with heavy 3's wouldn't be good. Hmm - but then you would go s40 M1 or M3 I presume...

Excellent questions!

I invented BaS40 long before I invented U1D2 or U1D1. So no one has ever experimented with those progs with BaS40. Perhaps we should.

What to do if you continuously lose your bets under your 3s? Well today that would be highly unlikely because today we would know whether to bet on or against the 3s. Back then we simply weren't that sophisticated yet. So I bet a 12358. The 8 only came up in 1 shoe out of the 40. I won the 8 and subsequenty won the shoe.

Ann BTW, that was the only shoe ever she didn't stick with me. She reasoned that the prior shoes had all been choppy so she bet that the 3s would stay 3. I should have listened. I hit +5. She hit about +20.

Right, back to back 3s would not be good no matter what But if you are betting that 3s stay 3, it becomes a minor hickup. And if you are playing M1 they become a good thing. See that?

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All good questions and comments guys and yes I will post some shoes. But first a word to Mike.

Mike, yes "good job" except: You and I both know you have a discipline problem. There is a cure for that: You've got to stop looking at the game as a sport and start looking at it as a JOB. The challenge is NOT with the casino. The real challenge is with yourself. Your JOB is to make 5 units a shoe. Sure, there will be shoes where it is obvious the shoe will support more than 5 - sometimes a lot more, Fine, but CAPTURE 5.

Never raise your unit on a loss. Only raise your unit when you've earned the right to do so on WINS.

Now settle down and lets have a good day today. That is your job for today.

Goal for the day, 10 shoes at +5. Starting out this morning with a 20 unit bankroll. Will report later.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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Excellent questions!

I invented BaS40 long before I invented U1D2 or U1D1. So no one has ever experimented with those progs with BaS40. Perhaps we should.

What to do if you continuously lose your bets under your 3s? Well today that would be highly unlikely because today we would know whether to bet on or against the 3s. Back then we simply weren't that sophisticated yet. So I bet a 12358. The 8 only came up in 1 shoe out of the 40. I won the 8 and subsequenty won the shoe.

Ann BTW, that was the only shoe ever she didn't stick with me. She reasoned that the prior shoes had all been choppy so she bet that the 3s would stay 3. I should have listened. I hit +5. She hit about +20.

Right, back to back 3s would not be good no matter what But if you are betting that 3s stay 3, it becomes a minor hickup. And if you are playing M1 they become a good thing. See that?

I will be happy to test U1D2. I have an 8 deck shoe that I practice on (same exact way as the casino). I can't duplicate their shuffles, so it is completely random, but it mimics live shoes pretty well. I have even had stronger biases than in the casino. Maybe it's due to the law of small numbers. If you or anyone else doesn't want me to post the results because of the fact that they aren't live casino shoes - and that will discredit the results then I won't. Let me know.

What do you think... if I did not make it back down to a 1 bet in the same shoe should I carry the same bet over to the next shoe? Or start over with a 1?

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Excellent questions!

I invented BaS40 long before I invented U1D2 or U1D1. So no one has ever experimented with those progs with BaS40. Perhaps we should.

What to do if you continuously lose your bets under your 3s? Well today that would be highly unlikely because today we would know whether to bet on or against the 3s. Back then we simply weren't that sophisticated yet. So I bet a 12358. The 8 only came up in 1 shoe out of the 40. I won the 8 and subsequenty won the shoe.

Ann BTW, that was the only shoe ever she didn't stick with me. She reasoned that the prior shoes had all been choppy so she bet that the 3s would stay 3. I should have listened. I hit +5. She hit about +20.

Right, back to back 3s would not be good no matter what But if you are betting that 3s stay 3, it becomes a minor hickup. And if you are playing M1 they become a good thing. See that?

Ellis, in your System40 manual, it states to use a U1D2 M2 progression.

Senior moment maybe? :confused:

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I think we all have suffered discipline problems at some point in our playing careers(and if you haven't yet YOU will).

Here's a book that will help, I think is well worth a read and will help you deal with TILT and other mental problems that affect your game that might just stop you losing your shirt!

It is based on poker but is applicable to all games: The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler.

Book Description

The mental game may be more important in poker than in any other form of competition. It's one of the only games in the world where you can play perfectly and lose-again and again. Hundreds of poker players have turned to mental game coach Jared Tendler's revolutionary approach to help them play their best, no matter how badly they're running. In this book you'll find simple, step-by-step instructions and proven techniques to permanently fix problems such as tilt, handling variance, emotional control, confidence, fear, and motivation. With the games getting tougher, now is the time to take these problems head on.

PS, I found this helped me recognize and to deal with tilt on a personal level and i am by no means affiliated with the author.

All good questions and comments guys and yes I will post some shoes. But first a word to Mike.

Mike, yes "good job" except: You and I both know you have a discipline problem. There is a cure for that: You've got to stop looking at the game as a sport and start looking at it as a JOB. The challenge is NOT with the casino. The real challenge is with yourself. Your JOB is to make 5 units a shoe. Sure, there will be shoes where it is obvious the shoe will support more than 5 - sometimes a lot more, Fine, but CAPTURE 5.

Never raise your unit on a loss. Only raise your unit when you've earned the right to do so on WINS.

Now settle down and lets have a good day today. That is your job for today.

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Mid day update...have had some struggles, but so far I ended 1st shoe down 5 units and shoes 2-5 were all winning shoes. After paying commission I currently stand at +18 units. Taking a break for a bit.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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Not going well after short break.....sat down at a table I can't beat....the one that beat me 4 times yesterday and I beat me again today...then sat @ another table that was tough this morning...I read theshoe wrong and got in trouble again...eating lunch then I'll be starting all over again :(

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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Mike, After every loss take a short break and reread post 2 of this thread if you have a device you can use with you(I take it you have as you are doing your up dates regularly)the Ellis Blue Print on how to tackle your challenge.Get your mind right then go again!

Best of Luck,

Lou.

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Ive always found when i bet bigger units the money is more significant and therefore easier to run after a +10 wouldnt you agree if 1000 or 2000 a day doesnt get you excited then um i dont know what to tell you!! Like Ellis says you have to approach this as a job keep accurate score cards keep an excel spread sheet that as soon as you come home from the casino you fill out date casino unit size # of hands played +/- Units expenses yes expenses gas tolls mileage and at total for the day after you hit your first 100 unit win increase your unit size as Ellis suggests. Discipline is definately key to your success.

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