Introduction to Million dollar Bac @ +5

[Guest]

First, totally as an aside, I want to apologize for not starting this forum yesterday. I had a severe reaction to one of the drugs they gave me and I had all the symptoms of a heart attack. Had to go back to the hospital. But it turned out to be just drug induced symptoms - not the real thing. I think I'll skip that drug from now on especially since one of the two antibiotic programs they put me on seems to be doing the trick. You know, I had that bout with Pneumonia a few months back and I think that makes you more prone to lung infections. Those really knock you for a loop so they put me on a lifelong defense program. But one of those drugs turned out to be a no no for me. Anyway, today I feel better than I have for weeks - almost totally back to par. So with that, lets get started.

First, why are we embarking on a whole new approach?

In short, because the casinos are embarking on a whole new approach - preshuffled (fixed) cards. We can't just continue to play NOR as some of you, including me, found out when playing against preshuffled cards. NOR is a Bias approach to Bac. Preshuffled is an attempt to artificially REMOVE biases. AND its working very well for the casinos.

While some of the less experienced players THINK it makes no difference - I can absolutely assure you that it makes a HUGE difference. Just when you think you've found the right NOR system to play - the whole thing changes. This simply doesn't happen with regular cards, but it happens every damn time with fixed cards.

Some of our Vegas players are doing "barely OK" playing NOR 2Hi but that is simply NOT the best way to play fixed cards.

Norm was doing well on the final step of the million dollar program playing basically SAP 2Hi. That maybe did slightly better but SAP is also a bias system and therefore not the best. Not for preshuffled cards.

Some of the guys, including John B, think the 4D or some form of it is the answer. But NO, I don't think so because the 4d is the ULTIMATE BIAS system. What we need is an approach that doesn't use biases at all BECAUSE, for all practical purposes, fixed cards have NO reliable biases. They simply haven't tried it against preshuffled cards. It might hold its own but that simply isn't good enough. We need an approach that virtually guarantees a +5 almost every time. We have to change from a bias approach to a purely mathematical approach.

Random cards CAN be beat but not with a bias approach. They are RANDOM for crying out loud. A Bias approach NEEDS biases. When there are none a bias approach is basing on thin air, on luck! You can't base your system on something that simply isn't there.

Now don't get me wrong. There are STILL regular cards casinos in the US and Canada but nowhere else. NOR and 4d are great for those casinos and for the internet. I doubt the internet will ever change because players prefer regular cards. That gives the internet a lot of business. But real casinos, there are still a few hold outs but I think they will be changing to fixed cards.

Excuse my calling them "fixed" instead of "factory preshuffled". I am calling them exactly what they are - fixed. "Factory preshuffled" gives you the illusion of a bunch of guys sitting at a table in a factory shuffling cards. Ha, that doesn't happen! The cards are not shuffled at all. If the casino doesn't want normal boxed card order they must tell the factory what card orders they want. Of course the casinos know what card orders are favorable to the casino. The factory machines can put the cards in any order the casino wants automatically just as easily as they put them in normal sealed box card order. The factory numbers the 8 deck bundle so the casino can pick and choose which card order they want for a given table. Sure, you'd think that would be deemed blatant cheating by the casino control commissions. Forget casino control commissions. For all practical purposes, they no longer exist. Whatever makes the most money for the casino is declared legal by the govt because that's also what makes the most money for govt. Get the picture? I'm the only friend you've got left.

This approach is new to you. But it is not new to me at all. I played the S40 version of this for 5 years playing full time in Vegas. And I averaged more than +5 and my win rate was over 90% meaning that I won more than 9 out of 10 shoes.

Since we are only going for +5, I am going to teach you a more conservative way of playing it. I'm adding a 0 bet to your progression. Instead of making your prog 12123, I'm making it 120123. If you want to add a 5,8 to that prog, fine - that's what I did. But I only got to the 8 bet once in 5 years of full time play. With the 0 bet, an 8 bet is even more rare. So rare it doesn't matter a hoot if you want to drop it entirely, along with the 5 bet. Just betting 120123, you'll do fine, so that is the way I'll teach it.

Another big difference: I always bet the secondary prog OTR. But now the 0 bet tells us whether to go OTR or ATR with our secondary prog. The 0 bet makes the whole thing completely mechanical. No freaking decisions anywhere in the entire approach. I'll give you an idea how important that is. That ONE shoe where I got to the 8 bet: Had I bet ATR (Against The Run) instead of OTR (On The Run) my secodary prog would have never got past the 1 bet. See why I'm teaching you that way?!?

AND, you don't require table selection. You can use it or not - your choice. But see, in random cards, how much good can table selection do??? I did't use it at all. Today I might use it a little just to see which of the 3 systems to start a table with. But, you're going to know after just a few plays anyway. And that choice is also completely mechanical.

Let me give you an example of a BIASED shoe:

It so happens that MVS just posted a highly biased regular cards shoe. Ha, had he played it right, even as short as it was, he would have scored about +20 instead of +2. The right way to play that shoe is S40M2 NOR+ (U1D2) You win every single initial OTR bet except for the one 3iar. On that one event you finally lose your 123 but then you win your 4,2 so big whip.

My point is, you will never see a shoe that biased with preshuffled cards. That shoe is a very common regular cards phenomenon. I'll probably have to play that shoe for you if MVS doesn't get it right on his next try. But see, those are the kinds of shoes you get starting out with regular 8 sealed decks. But not with fixed cards.

Think of fixed cards as cards with all biases removed. Think of them as RANDOM cards. You'll never be far wrong.

Another aside: If you are worried that your paypal payment was unclaimed, stop worrying. I was late claming the funds due to being at the hospital. Check now. I probably need to go in and claim again by now.

Also I noted paypal was running a little slow. My balance was considerably greater than the sum of your entries. It's sorta like when the dealer pays you by mistake. You don't complain about it.

But I think I'm getting all the names ok. It might take paypal a little time to catch up. Hell. it took me about ten tries yesterday just to get to my account.

Also I notice that some of you are more comfortable sending a check. I don't blame you. A canceled check is the best proof of payment there is. And its easy for me to accommodate.

All the members at BTC need to be members of this forum. I could use your help getting that point across. It won't be long before all casinos use preshuffled cards just as they are doing in the whole rest of the world. This forum will be very useful to foreign players.

About the only people with a reason not to join is strictly on line players at least for now. But even for those guys - a guaranteed +5 is better than an unguaranteed anything - it seems to me.

OK back to business:

On this forum I intend to walk you through all 3 +5 systems and make them purely mechanical. Yes, I will be posting shoes and play by plays.

And yes I'll post a manual at some point. But I think, like NOR, the manual will be the least important thing The most important thing is posted shoes and play by plays. That's where most really learn.

I'm trying to make everything purely mechanical - at least as much as humanly possible.

No, this approach is not hard at all - nothing like the 4D. The result of your 0 bet tells you exactly how to play the rest of the shoe. It is even easier than NOR - much easier. But it's different. This is a whole different concept of play - it doesn't give a hoot about shoe types or biases. Once you know it you could play it in your sleep. Ha, sometimes I do.

And for those who are big believers in the KISS principle. Look, you COULD play it just like I did and ALWAYS play the S40 base. You'll do even better than I did because now you have the 0 bet dictating OTR vs ATR for the rest of the shoe. I did't have that advantage back in those days. That trick just hadn't occurred to me yet.

Oh, bluetri made the remark back there about the risk of a 5 bet prog. Exactly right - we shouldn't have them. That is why there are no 5 bet progressions in NOR.

But see, this is not your normal 5 bet prog.

A 5 bet prog on either P or B gets beat by a 5iar. They occur once per shoe on avg. That's one to many.

A 5 bet prog on opposites gets beat by a 6 iar. Too many of those too.

But we are doing something ENTIRELY different.

Just looking at the S40 base we are betting on either of 2 things, decided by our zero bet.

That either

the shoe can't produce 4 3s before it produces a single 4 or more. Or

the shoe can't produce 4 4 or mores before it produces a 3.

Look at all the shoes you want. You'll soon see that this is a very safe bet.

Or, you can add the 5 and the 8 bet to your prog: Recognize that all shoes, especially preshuffled cards, have 4 or mores.

Now you are betting a shoe can't produce SIX 4 or mores before it produces a 3 OR

6 3's before it produces a 4+.

I challenge you to find a single preshuffled shoe that loses that bet - a single one.

Like I said, it took me 5 years of full time play just to get to the 8 bet - and I STILL won the shoe.

OK heres how it works:

You lose your 1,2. That means the shoe produced a 3, right? ALWAYS.

You bet 0. The 3 either went to 4 or it stayed 3. It cost you nothing to find out.

So OK lets say the 3 stayed 3. That's the first 3.

Now your are betting a 123 that the shoe can't produce 3 more 3s before it produces a 4+.

Or you can make it 4 or 5. Got that so far?

OK lets say that 3 went to 4 on your 0 bet. Fine

Now you are betting the shoe can't produce 3 more 4+s before it produces a single 3. See that?

Or you can make it 4 or 5 if you want.

It's not the same thing as a normal 5 or 6 bet prog is it.

It is about as close to a sure thing as you can get - ESPECIALLY in random cards which is exactly what the casino is feeding you. See that? We are using their own cheating against them. It serves them right!

I told you a long time ago that the total lack of a bias is a bias in itself. Fine, that is exactly the principle we are deploying against them.

They want to cheat. Fine, let them cheat. That's exactly what gives us a way to beat them.

Can you hear me NOW?

[ECD]

Great start to the new forum.

Very interesting concept on how to use the 0 bet -- in NOR we would have used the first 3iar to confirm Mode 3, and bet for 3's to stay at 3's. Now suggesting the the first 3iar be used to set up a secondary progression betting the 3 goes to a 4. I need to think about it some more and work through some examples, but I like the recognition that the preshuffled shoe may not have a consistent bias. Also, it plays to the statistics of EVENTS (i.e. secondary progression only losses if there are four 3iars before a 4+).

Looking forward to more.

[bluetri]

I agree, way2fast. Events will either occur as often as they mathmatically should (which this prog should cover) or they will happen more/less often. The second shows an exploitable bias. We have them coming and going.

[gman72]

Wow, lots of questions swirling in my head after reading this introduction. I know all will be answered, I just need to be patient.

On this forum I intend to walk you through all 3 +5 systems and make them purely mechanical. Yes, I will be posting shoes and play by plays.

This is a whole different concept of play - it doesn't give a hoot about shoe types or biases.

One thing that stuck out, right off the bat, as the most interesting question to me is how the two statements above are not contradicting each other. Maybe I'm just slow and its obvious to others but if there are no shoe types or biases to look for, why do you need 3 different systems? What are we looking for to determine which of the 3 to use? It will be interesting to find out.

[Bobby]

Ellis,

You are saying we have to change to a purely mathematical approach but I thought "pure mathematics" doesn't beat the game or house edge?

[Guest]

Hi everyone . Just talked to Ellis . He want's me to post an update for him .

His computer is being repaired at the shop and will be returned to him on TUESDAY . April 29.

Untill then we all have to wait to make sure his computer is working . If it is we should have a class that Tuesday or Wednesday . It will be his call as to what time it will be held ... I think at night .

[newbacplayer]

RE: need for three systems in a random shoe. This is also a key question on my mind. Look forward to more information on this point. gb

[gman72]

AND, you don't require table selection. You can use it or not - your choice. But see, in random cards, how much good can table selection do??? I did't use it at all. Today I might use it a little just to see which of the 3 systems to start a table with. But, you're going to know after just a few plays anyway. And that choice is also completely mechanical.

After reading through the introduction several more times, I keep getting excited about this one little paragraph. I don't know about everyone else here, but table selection was always a tough part of the game for me. Not that I didn't do it, because I did. I spent countless hours reading and studying the forum to gain insights into what are the best things to look for on the tote boards to make the right decision about which of the three NOR systems to use. Then what became frustrating was finding what looked like a good table for a certain system and not being able to get a seat. I'm really intrigued by the idea of finding that open seat on a table and being able to sit down, watch a few plays, and know exactly which of the three +5 systems to use. If this really is possible, it will be a big advantage I believe.

[Quizzical1]

After reading through the introduction several more times, I keep getting excited about this one little paragraph. I don't know about everyone else here, but table selection was always a tough part of the game for me. Not that I didn't do it, because I did. I spent countless hours reading and studying the forum to gain insights into what are the best things to look for on the tote boards to make the right decision about which of the three NOR systems to use. Then what became frustrating was finding what looked like a good table for a certain system and not being able to get a seat. I'm really intrigued by the idea of finding that open seat on a table and being able to sit down, watch a gfew plays, and know exactly which of the three +5 systems to use. If this really is possible, it will be a big advantage I believe.

More than big gman - HUGE advantage! This was exactly what I was hoping for with the 4D but ultimately gave up due to the complexity of playing it at casino speeds.

If Ellis is correct and we can get to + 5 units using simple strategies w/o table selection I for one will be an extremely happy camper.

[ECD]

It is my understanding from Keith is that it will be a Q&A? So Ellis will post the beginning of the class and we will ask questions?

[Quizzical1]

It is my understanding from Keith is that it will be a Q&A? So Ellis will post the beginning of the class and we will ask questions?

Hmmm....I think it'll be a bit more involved that just a Q&A, Vin.

[ECD]

Hmmmm....... That was Keith's line not mine Glenn .

[Jim Files]

Hmmmm....... That was Keith's line not mine Glenn .

Hi McVince,

I think Keith has made it clear that this million $ Forum is Ellis' s responsibility and this is what Ellis said in intro above:

OK back to business:

On this forum I intend to walk you through all 3 +5 systems and make them purely mechanical. Yes, I will be posting shoes and play by plays.

And yes I'll post a manual at some point. But I think, like NOR, the manual will be the least important thing The most important thing is posted shoes and play by plays. That's where most really learn. "

Hope this helps...

Jim

[ECD]

04-27-2014, 09:59 AM

Keith Smith replied to a thread Million Dollar Forum Up-Date Per Ellis in NOR Forum

There isn't a video it is a forum. It will be Q and A forum format Regards K

see more

That was what I was going on. No problems. I just took offense on how Glenn said it.

[joeystyle]

04-27-2014, 09:59 AM

Keith Smith replied to a thread Million Dollar Forum Up-Date Per Ellis in NOR Forum

There isn't a video it is a forum. It will be Q and A forum format Regards K

see more

That was what I was going on. No problems. I just took offense on how Glenn said it.

I am a bit confused as to when this will become a private forum, since I am registered and have paid. I anxiously await for the lessons, questions and answers phase to begin under the direction of Ellis.

Ciao

Joey

[dinosaur331]

I assume May 31th is the last day to send $150?

[Quizzical1]

04-27-2014, 09:59 AM

Keith Smith replied to a thread Million Dollar Forum Up-Date Per Ellis in NOR Forum

There isn't a video it is a forum. It will be Q and A forum format Regards K

see more

That was what I was going on. No problems. I just took offense on how Glenn said it.

Sorry buddy. Wasn't trying to offend at all. Was trying to state that maybe Keith has it downplayed to merely a Q&A when from what Ellis' first post stated would be much more than that.

My apologies....

[Keith Smith]

Sorry buddy. Wasn't trying to offend at all. Was trying to state that maybe Keith has it downplayed to merely a Q&A when from what Ellis' first post stated would be much more than that.

My apologies....

BTW Ellis just got his computer back but what i meant by Q and A is it is a forum just like this. Post a thread and get the questions answered etc.

K

[Jim Files]

....

Since we are only going for +5, I am going to teach you a more conservative way of playing it. I'm adding a 0 bet to your progression. Instead of making your prog 12123, I'm making it 120123. If you want to add a 5,8 to that prog, fine - that's what I did. But I only got to the 8 bet once in 5 years of full time play. With the 0 bet, an 8 bet is even more rare. So rare it doesn't matter a hoot if you want to drop it entirely, along with the 5 bet. Just betting 120123, you'll do fine, so that is the way I'll teach it.

Another big difference: I always bet the secondary prog OTR. But now the 0 bet tells us whether to go OTR or ATR with our secondary prog. The 0 bet makes the whole thing completely mechanical. No freaking decisions anywhere in the entire approach. I'll give you an idea how important that is. That ONE shoe where I got to the 8 bet: Had I bet ATR (Against The Run) instead of OTR (On The Run) my secodary prog would have never got past the 1 bet. See why I'm teaching you that way?!?

AND, you don't require table selection. You can use it or not - your choice. But see, in random cards, how much good can table selection do??? I did't use it at all. Today I might use it a little just to see which of the 3 systems to start a table with. But, you're going to know after just a few plays anyway. And that choice is also completely mechanical.

Let me give you an example of a BIASED shoe:

It so happens that MVS just posted a highly biased regular cards shoe. Ha, had he played it right, even as short as it was, he would have scored about +20 instead of +2. The right way to play that shoe is S40M2 NOR+ (U1D2) You win every single initial OTR bet except for the one 3iar. On that one event you finally lose your 123 but then you win your 4,2 so big whip.

My point is, you will never see a shoe that biased with preshuffled cards. That shoe is a very common regular cards phenomenon. I'll probably have to play that shoe for you if MVS doesn't get it right on his next try. But see, those are the kinds of shoes you get starting out with regular 8 sealed decks. But not with fixed cards.

Think of fixed cards as cards with all biases removed. Think of them as RANDOM cards. You'll never be far wrong.

Another aside: If you are worried that your paypal payment was unclaimed, stop worrying. I was late claiming the funds due to being at the hospital. Check now. I probably need to go in and claim again by now.

Also I noted paypal was running a little slow. My balance was considerably greater than the sum of your entries. It's sorta like when the dealer pays you by mistake. You don't complain about it.

But I think I'm getting all the names ok. It might take paypal a little time to catch up. Hell. it took me about ten tries yesterday just to get to my account.

Also I notice that some of you are more comfortable sending a check. I don't blame you. A canceled check is the best proof of payment there is. And its easy for me to accommodate.

All the members at BTC need to be members of this forum. I could use your help getting that point across. It won't be long before all casinos use preshuffled cards just as they are doing in the whole rest of the world. This forum will be very useful to foreign players.

About the only people with a reason not to join is strictly on line players at least for now. But even for those guys - a guaranteed +5 is better than an unguaranteed anything - it seems to me.

OK back to business:

On this forum I intend to walk you through all 3 +5 systems and make them purely mechanical. Yes, I will be posting shoes and play by plays.

And yes I'll post a manual at some point. But I think, like NOR, the manual will be the least important thing The most important thing is posted shoes and play by plays. That's where most really learn.

I'm trying to make everything purely mechanical - at least as much as humanly possible.

No, this approach is not hard at all - nothing like the 4D. The result of your 0 bet tells you exactly how to play the rest of the shoe. It is even easier than NOR - much easier. But it's different. This is a whole different concept of play - it doesn't give a hoot about shoe types or biases. Once you know it you could play it in your sleep. Ha, sometimes I do.

And for those who are big believers in the KISS principle. Look, you COULD play it just like I did and ALWAYS play the S40 base. You'll do even better than I did because now you have the 0 bet dictating OTR vs ATR for the rest of the shoe. I did't have that advantage back in those days. That trick just hadn't occurred to me yet.

Oh, bluetri made the remark back there about the risk of a 5 bet prog. Exactly right - we shouldn't have them. That is why there are no 5 bet progressions in NOR.

But see, this is not your normal 5 bet prog.

A 5 bet prog on either P or B gets beat by a 5iar. They occur once per shoe on avg. That's one to many.

A 5 bet prog on opposites gets beat by a 6 iar. Too many of those too.

But we are doing something ENTIRELY different.

Just looking at the S40 base we are betting on either of 2 things, decided by our zero bet.

That either

the shoe can't produce 4 3s before it produces a single 4 or more. Or

the shoe can't produce 4 4 or mores before it produces a 3.

Look at all the shoes you want. You'll soon see that this is a very safe bet.

Or, you can add the 5 and the 8 bet to your prog: Recognize that all shoes, especially preshuffled cards, have 4 or mores.

Now you are betting a shoe can't produce SIX 4 or mores before it produces a 3 OR

6 3's before it produces a 4+.

I challenge you to find a single preshuffled shoe that loses that bet - a single one.

Like I said, it took me 5 years of full time play just to get to the 8 bet - and I STILL won the shoe.

OK heres how it works:

You lose your 1,2. That means the shoe produced a 3, right? ALWAYS.

You bet 0. The 3 either went to 4 or it stayed 3. It cost you nothing to find out.

So OK lets say the 3 stayed 3. That's the first 3.

Now your are betting a 123 that the shoe can't produce 3 more 3s before it produces a 4+.

Or you can make it 4 or 5. Got that so far?

OK lets say that 3 went to 4 on your 0 bet. Fine

Now you are betting the shoe can't produce 3 more 4+s before it produces a single 3. See that?

Or you can make it 4 or 5 if you want.

It's not the same thing as a normal 5 or 6 bet prog is it.

It is about as close to a sure thing as you can get - ESPECIALLY in random cards which is exactly what the casino is feeding you. See that? We are using their own cheating against them. It serves them right!

I told you a long time ago that the total lack of a bias is a bias in itself. Fine, that is exactly the principle we are deploying against them.

They want to cheat. Fine, let them cheat. That's exactly what gives us a way to beat them.

Can you hear me NOW?

Hi Ellis,

Hopefully you got your computer back now and you are ready to continue with what sounded great to me and a lot of others that are interested and excited about this new Million dollar Bac @ +5.

I like the new progression to handle runs for Bas40 but this shoe posted by MVS and others in another thread caused me a little concern. I'm not sure if this shoe was from preshuffled cards or not and maybe that is why it doesn't go very well. In this Sugar House shoe, the 4's and plus 4's went wild which could cause us some trouble. I was wondering what your thoughts are on this shoe. If this isn't an appropriate question at this time then maybe you can keep it in mind for later after we have some more education. Here's the shoe I'm referring to..

Thanks,

Jim

PS Really looking forward to learning more here, this is exciting stuff!

[Quizzical1]

BTW Ellis just got his computer back but what i meant by Q and A is it is a forum just like this. Post a thread and get the questions answered etc.

K

No harm - no foul, Keith. Seems things can get easily misconstrued in written vs spoken form.

Hopefully, we can all come together now and make something of this latest forum.

[Guest]

OK, I'm back. Just got my computer wired back in at 5:15AM. Still a few adjustments needed I will make as I go.

The reason it took so long is there was a lot more wrong with it than I realized. Then we had a 12 hour electric storm with enough rain to completerly fill my car washing bucket to overflowing with rain water. We escapped the F3 tornado that went through here killing 16 people but we did not escape the flooding. I live at the top of a hill so I didn't have any flood damage personally but I was stranded because all the bridges were out in both directions from my house. I couldn't get to the computer shop to get my computer back but that didn't matter because the technitians could't get to their shop to fix it anyway. That's life in the Ozarks.

Next on my agenda is to make a list for Keith of all who subscribed to the new million dollar forum. I have everyone who paid by check and I'm hoping I can get everyone who paid by paypal from my acct history. I'm hoping the fact that I was off line so long won't goof up my records. Once we get all that up to date we can go ahead with making the new forum private.

I'm extremely pleased with the turnout for the million dollar forum. It's nearly twice what I expected. I will be designing a new BTC front page with the objective of getting more general public members to join the new forum. Their cost BTW is $750. Your's, as NOR members, is $150.

Next, we need ground rules for the new forum: We've already got it goofed up. What we need is is a sticky Instruction thread where no posting is allowed so that we have all instructions in one easy to find place with continuous instruction taking us through all 3 +5 systems complete with adequate shoe examples and play by plays. Sorta like a very complete super manual. Then we need a SEPARATE +5 Q&A and Comments thread. This way we can keep everything organized. I'm thinking we can include an index for the Instructional thread as well as a glossary of terms. This will keep new members from getting lost already before they even get started. But it will also help the older members to have everything immediately at their finger tips and easy to find.

No use crying over spilt milk. I'll simply restart a new instuction thread. I need to make a correction in the Introduction anyway: I said something to the effect that "the first 0 bet determines your mode for the reat of the shoe." That is not accurate. I should have said "until the next losing 0 bet." Nevertheless I WAS accurate when I said mode selection is completely automated in the +5 strategies.

When you think about it this is a VERY big thing. We so often hear members say "I understand everything except modes - how do you know which mode to play? I can talk until I'm blue in the face about OR counts and/or events and 3rd bet rules but still few totally understand modes and fewer still understand that with OTB4L we have separate modes for ST and ZZ runs.

SO, I completely eliminated the whole mode question in the +5 strategies by totally automating mode selection. It is purely mechanical in all three +5 strategies. In fact EVERYTHING is purely mechanical and you are betting less to boot - much less.

Just before my computer went down, there were some S40M1 questions in the NOR forum. Look guys, I cannot answer S40M1 questions in the NOR forum. S40M1 is not a NOR strategy. It was taught as an independent strategy to members by Webinar at additional cost. It is not fair to them to now teach it for free in the NOR forum. HOWEVER, I CAN answer your questions in the new forum because S40M1 was adopted as one of the three +5 million dollar strategies. However, in the +5 strategies we play S40M1 in a far more conservative way. I would like to discuss this now but I'll start a new post for it.

BTW Glenn, I'm not ignoring your questions and shoe. I just don't want to answer until we privatize this new forum - which will happen shortly. But first I want to make some public comments about the +5 version of S40M1 in a new post.

[Quizzical1]

OK, I'm back. Just got my computer wired back in at 5:15AM. Still a few adjustments needed I will make as I go.

The reason it took so long is there was a lot more wrong with it than I realized. Then we had a 12 hour electric storm with enough rain to completerly fill my car washing bucket to overflowing with rain water. We escapped the F3 tornado that went through here killing 16 people but we did not escape the flooding. I live at the top of a hill so I didn't have any flood damage personally but I was stranded because all the bridges were out in both directions from my house. I couldn't get to the computer shop to get my computer back but that didn't matter because the technitians could't get to their shop to fix it anyway. That's life in the Ozarks.

Next on my agenda is to make a list for Keith of all who subscribed to the new million dollar forum. I have everyone who paid by check and I'm hoping I can get everyone who paid by paypal from my acct history. I'm hoping the fact that I was off line so long won't goof up my records. Once we get all that up to date we can go ahead with making the new forum private.

I'm extremely pleased with the turnout for the million dollar forum. It's nearly twice what I expected. I will be designing a new BTC front page with the objective of getting more general public members to join the new forum. Their cost BTW is $750. Your's, as NOR members, is $150.

Next, we need ground rules for the new forum: We've already got it goofed up. What we need is is a sticky Instruction thread where no posting is allowed so that we have all instructions in one easy to find place with continuous instruction taking us through all 3 +5 systems complete with adequate shoe examples and play by plays. Sorta like a very complete super manual. Then we need a SEPARATE +5 Q&A and Comments thread. This way we can keep everything organized. I'm thinking we can include an index for the Instructional thread as well as a glossary of terms. This will keep new members from getting lost already before they even get started. But it will also help the older members to have everything immediately at their finger tips and easy to find.

No use crying over spilt milk. I'll simply restart a new instuction thread. I need to make a correction in the Introduction anyway: I said something to the effect that "the first 0 bet determines your mode for the reat of the shoe." That is not accurate. I should have said "until the next losing 0 bet." Nevertheless I WAS accurate when I said mode selection is completely automated in the +5 strategies.

When you think about it this is a VERY big thing. We so often hear members say "I understand everything except modes - how do you know which mode to play? I can talk until I'm blue in the face about OR counts and/or events and 3rd bet rules but still few totally understand modes and fewer still understand that with OTB4L we have separate modes for ST and ZZ runs.

SO, I completely eliminated the whole mode question in the +5 strategies by totally automating mode selection. It is purely mechanical in all three +5 strategies. In fact EVERYTHING is purely mechanical and you are betting less to boot - much less.

Just before my computer went down, there were some S40M1 questions in the NOR forum. Look guys, I cannot answer S40M1 questions in the NOR forum. S40M1 is not a NOR strategy. It was taught as an independent strategy to members by Webinar at additional cost. It is not fair to them to now teach it for free in the NOR forum. HOWEVER, I CAN answer your questions in the new forum because S40M1 was adopted as one of the three +5 million dollar strategies. However, in the +5 strategies we play S40M1 in a far more conservative way. I would like to discuss this now but I'll start a new post for it.

BTW Glenn, I'm not ignoring your questions and shoe. I just don't want to answer until we privatize this new forum - which will happen shortly. But first I want to make some public comments about the +5 version of S40M1 in a new post.

Thanks Ellis,

I've been holding off playing until I got your thoughts on it. No pressure mind you - I've been reverting back to my craps play until the new +5 forum gets underway.

[Guest]

S40M1, +5 version:

Well I was't just sitting here waiting for the storm to stop. I was busy with the +5 version of S40M1.

I would like ALL Bac members to read this - both +5 members AND NOR members still contemplating the +5 forum.

OK I selected the shoe somebody just posted that goes:

B294221

B1132111211132

B211211412131

P1111 = 64 plays

The first thing to note is that the OR count goes all the way to -10 in the first col back to +1 in the last col.

So the OR count is NOT dependable. This is typical of "preshuffled cards". In fact one way we could define "preshuffled" is cards that have no dependable OR count. This makes this shoe close to unplayable using NOR but at the same time, highly playable using +5 - in this case +5 S40M1.

Note that this shoe is all over the place: Not only does the OR count completely reverse, it has every other kind of problem too: ST and ZZ runs of varying lengths, TT runs, 212s, periods of SS, sporadic 1's - a real "designer shoe" - a nightmare.

Yet, you will see when I post it on the new +5 forum that the +5 version of S40M1 has no problem with it in spite of the 8 2s. In fact the 8 2s don't bother us at all in this version of S40M1. They would kill the original version of S40M1.

But, while this shoe would be disasterous for NOR, with +5 S40M1 it scores an easy +13 with a highest bet of only 2 an incredibly low 3 times. Yep, only three 2 bets in an entire 64 play shoe. No 3s at all. In fact if we were to quit at our first +5, we would have had ZERO 2 bets. Our highest bet would be 1 unit. I have been around this game for a LONG time and I can tell you for a fact - this is incredible for ANY shoe but it is particularly incredible for such a strange shoe. I can guarantee you - nobody else at the table is going to beat this shoe - NOBODY. Yet we breeze right through it. Such is the power of our +5 strategy! It beats shoes NOBODY else can beat - shoes that would be disasterous for NOR. See that?

OK, Keith just called and told me he has already privatized this forum. Ha, when I said "shortly" I didn't mean THAT shortly. So here's what I will do. I will repost this post thus far in the NOR forum where everyone can see it. But in this forum only I will go ahead and post this shoe played out +5 S40M1. Then in this forum I will do a play by play and explain every bet every play. You will soon see for yourselves how simple and how mechanical this really is and why it is so hard to lose a shoe.

Oh, I will include the OR count just so you can verify how strange this shoe actually is. BUT recognize that NOWHERE do I use the OR count for anything. It is purely FYI. I will put the progs within a progs in red to make them stand out and easy to follow.

While BaS40 uses a prog of 120123, S40M1 uses a prog of 10123. This is because the 0 bet is always placed on your initial OTR bet and M1 goes OTR after only 1 losing bet. That's what M1 means. This may sound a bit complex in words but When you see it in actual play, while different, it is not complex at all and it's just a question of getting used to a brand new strategy.

I don't mean to jump into S40M1 before I finish BaS40. I'm just telling you now to give you an idea of what this new forum will cover. Also, as I did, I think you will find this extremely interesting. So I'm just giving you an early heads up.

I will go over this shoe with you in detail shortly. Right now I need to work on the million dollar member list for Keith.

BTW, of course we won't always be hitting +13 but we don't HAVE to. We are only looking to average +5. But a +13 now and then will greatly help that goal!

[bigcash2002]

What is the difference between systems..when i read s40 versus BaS40

and OTB4L and BaOTB4L?

I am confused by the "Ba"

[Guest]

What is the difference between systems..when i read s40 versus BaS40

and OTB4L and BaOTB4L?

I am confused by the "Ba"

Hi big cash. First, thanks for joining the new forum and that goes for everyone here.

Right, Ba just means Basic. It means we are teaching these systems here in their Basic format - the way they were origionally designed for random cards. They were origionally designed with the prog within a prog concept which is highly effective in random cards. This was before BTC. It was back when we were known as "Winning Ways". We were actually deploying BJ strategies in Bac.

See, this (preshuffled cards) is not the first time the casinos have tried random cards in Bac. There was a 6 year period back in the late '90s when the casinos tried random cards because players had been killing the frequent streaks they had been dealing in the late '80s - early'90s.

There is a thing called "super random". It first appeared in BJ. Super random is the best BJ game there is - highly beatable. Back then we concentrated our efforts on how best to beat super random BJ. We were highly successful using very clever, well timed progressions. So naturally we applied the same technology to Bac because the casinos were into the same super random technology in Bac. We invented the prog within a prog concept. Our efforts paid off in a huge way. So huge that the casinos HAD to change their strategy to biased cards. We answeed the challenge with bias systems - SAP, NOR, 4D.

So now the casinos are going back to super random where bias systems can get no bite. "You can't play biases that simply no longer exist".

So WE need to change right with them - back to super random strategy - back to prog within a prog.

What do I mean by "super random"???

In BJ it means that highs will follow lows and lows will follow highs even MORE often than random math would dictate. That gives you something to bite on. See super random is a bias itself - a bias that can be exploited.

Picture a bucket filled with 500 white marbles and 500 black marbles. If you were to blindly pick marbles from that bucket, yes, you would pick black about as often as white BUT it would NOT be black white black white black white. Every now and then random math dictates that you would pick several blacks and several whites in a row. See that? But in super random NO. It is BWBWBWBW. That gives you a pretty darn good idea of what's coming next just as it did in BJ. So in BJ we could teach players how to use that information to easily beat the game. See that?

In Bac super random means something just a little different but still highly exploitable.

It means that all events will stick too close to their normal frequencies of occurrence except that 5iars will occur MORE often than their normal frequencies and 6+s less. We can use that.

In random Bac, we know the exact win loss rate of a 4 bet or a 5 bet or a 6 bet prog. A 4 bet prog will lose once every 32 plays on avg. A 5 bet prog once every 64 plays and a 6 bet prog once every 128 plays. In random Bac all progs will lose at their mathematical expectancy and just often enough to break you even except then you owe commission. See that?

So yes we have a 6 bet prog as well as a 5 bet prog. They are 120123 ans 10123, respectively.

BUT we don't bet them in the normal way - against B or P or Ops or Repeats because they would simply lose at their mathematical expectancy. We bet what we could call a broken prog or a split prog.

We bet our 5 bet prog that the shoe won't broduce 4 2s before it produces a 3 or 4 3s before it produces a 2.

We bet our 6 bet prog that the shoe won't produce 4 3s before it produces a 4 or 4 4s before it produces a 3.

See the difference?

In BOTH cases, our 0 bet determines which way we go. It is 100% mechanical. WE are merely spectators basically saying.

"OK, you bastards - beat this if you can!"

And you know what? They can't!

You know why? Because THEY made the cards super RANDOM. They made all events hit their mathematical norm. And only severely mathematical UNNORMAL can possibly beat our prog. And by then, we won't give a shit because it happens so infrequently.

They cheated and we are using their own cheating to clobber them.

Do you get it now?