+6 the hard way (S40M1 +5 version)

[Wendel]

took s40M1 +5 version to the casino yesterday.

Here is the shoe:

B42131221121

B1221111111116

B31

[gman72]

took s40M1 +5 version to the casino yesterday.

Here is the shoe:

B42131221121

B1221111111116

B31

Start the shoe at play #2 and stopped out with a -5 at play #6 facing a 2 bet. Brutal. By the time you would hit +6 you'd have faced -5 three times and -6 facing a 2 bet as well. Oops that's playing BaS40, not S40M1, my mistake.

[Wendel]

Start the shoe at play #2 and stopped out with a -5 at play #6 facing a 2 bet. Brutal. By the time you would hit +6 you'd have faced -5 three times and -6 facing a 2 bet as well.

Brutal is a good word for it , although an understatement.

I got all the way to -8, lost the complete secondary prog. just before the zzz run started. got all my money back + 6.

gotta love those runs.

[Wendel]

Start the shoe at play #2 and stopped out with a -5 at play #6 facing a 2 bet. Brutal. By the time you would hit +6 you'd have faced -5 three times and -6 facing a 2 bet as well. Oops that's playing BaS40, not S40M1, my mistake.

I started with a 0 bet under the first 2iar, play 3, and it went down hill from there for a while.

[gman72]

Here's how I played it out, S40M1 +5.

image2014_05_06_09_42_320001.pdf

For some reason I can no longer attach the image to appear in the post. When I try to insert image from my computer nothing happens when I click the button to find the file. I can click on basic uploader and then it lets me include a link. I never used to have any problems, not sure why I am now.

[Wendel]

Here's how I played it out, S40M1 +5.

[ATTACH]2924[/ATTACH]

For some reason I can no longer attach the image to appear in the post. When I try to insert image from my computer nothing happens when I click the button to find the file. I can click on basic uploader and then it lets me include a link. I never used to have any problems, not sure why I am now.

I like the attachments separate anyway. I find them easier to print file and reference.

Anyway, I think our solutions are out of sync

At play 8, I played opposite (p1)

At play 15, I played opposite (p1) I can't think of the rational for playing bank here

At play 16 I played under the 2 iar (b0) The previous secondary prog ended at play 14.

at play 20, I played p1 to follow the 0 at 16.

at play 22 I played B2

at play 24 I played P3

at play 26 I played B0

actually we are closer than I thought.

I like your version better, but I think mine was correct.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Wendel
re-arranged lines. no changes to text

[gman72]

Yep, I'm still having trouble figuring out the correct play after the 1 or 2 unit secondary progression bet wins when it's an ATR bet. Especially when the shoe like this is choppy and there hasn't been any real long runs.

By play 14 there had been a 4iar and then a 3iar, confirmed after play 11, so when I won the 1b secondary progression bet ATR at play 14, I stayed OTR at play 15 and 16 following the last run of 3iar. That's what I did, not sure if correct, I'm still trying to get it figured out.

[Wendel]

Yep, I'm still having trouble figuring out the correct play after the 1 or 2 unit secondary progression bet wins when it's an ATR bet. Especially when the shoe like this is choppy and there hasn't been any real long runs.

By play 14 there had been a 4iar and then a 3iar, confirmed after play 11, so when I won the 1b secondary progression bet ATR at play 14, I stayed OTR at play 15 and 16 following the last run of 3iar. That's what I did, not sure if correct, I'm still trying to get it figured out.

Now, you have me wondering.

I think we only play the runs on the primary side not on the ATR side.

If we lost our primary and secondary ATR bets we would go on the run. if the OTR

bet hit we would play that run as appropriate.

IF you haven't already take a long look at post 65 in the Million Dollar Bacarat @ 5 thread.

That post has the same attachment as several other threads , but this one gives,

I think, a good summary of how the 0 bet is used.

the subsequent few threads are also pretty good.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Wendel
corrected spelling

[gman72]

I believe I used the 0 bet correctly in the posted shoe, it's just what to do after a winning secondary progression bet that was ATR (based on the outcome of the prior 0 bet). If it loses do you go back OTR on the other side or if it wins do you stay OTR on that side?

When the shoe is choppy with very few if any 4+iars it makes the decisions a little more difficult in my opinion, but I'm sure I'm just not getting it yet.

[Wendel]

I believe I used the 0 bet correctly in the posted shoe, it's just what to do after a winning secondary progression bet that was ATR (based on the outcome of the prior 0 bet). If it loses do you go back OTR on the other side or if it wins do you stay OTR on that side?

When the shoe is choppy with very few if any 4+iars it makes the decisions a little more difficult in my opinion, but I'm sure I'm just not getting it yet.

I think if you lose the OTR bet , just go back to playing opposite the winning side, which would put you under the bet you just lost.

If you win , you should be sitting on a 4 iar. decide if you want to continue betting OTR , or if you want to leave the run after 4 iar

and play opposite. If the last previous run was 5 or more , you would probably stay OTR for a bet or 2 . If 4 or less play opposite.

Check Ellis's most recent posts in the S40 m2 thread.

The specifics may be a little different for M2 , but the length of runs should apply as per Ellis's recent posts on the topic

or your preferences. If you win OTR in M2 , I think you are sitting on a 5iar.

At one point , I think Ellis was using a minimum length of 4. so if your o bet won you would

bet once more otr regardless of whether there was a previous 4 or more. I think that still applies.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Wendel
addwd 2 line3s at bottom

[gman72]

I think if you lose the OTR bet , just go back to playing opposite the winning side, which would put you under the bet you just lost.

If you win , you should be sitting on a 4 iar. decide if you want to continue betting OTR , or if you want to leave the run after 4 iar

and play opposite. If the last previous run was 5 or more , you would probably stay OTR for a bet or 2 . If 4 or less play opposite.

Check Ellis's most recent posts in the S40 m2 thread.

The specifics may be a little different for M2 , but the length of runs should apply as per Ellis's recent posts on the topic

or your preferences. If you win OTR in M2 , I think you are sitting on a 5iar.

At one point , I think Ellis was using a minimum length of 4. so if your o bet won you would

bet once more otr regardless of whether there was a previous 4 or more. I think that still applies.

That all sounds correct to me as well, but its the ATR bet and subsequent bet whether that ATR bet won or lost which is the issue, not the OTR wins or losses. I can see that if the ATR bet loses and you want to bet back OTR up to the length of the last run you could do that. Its when the ATR bet wins, what do you do, just restart the primary progression betting opposite or continue betting now on the same side as the winning ATR bet, which I guess is basically betting a run opposite the last run.

[gman72]

At play 8, I played opposite (p1)

At play 15, I played opposite (p1) I can't think of the rational for playing bank here

At play 16 I played under the 2 iar (b0) The previous secondary prog ended at play 14.

at play 20, I played p1 to follow the 0 at 16.

at play 22 I played B2

at play 24 I played P3

at play 26 I played B0

actually we are closer than I thought.

I like your version better, but I think mine was correct.

It's the decision after play 7 that I'm talking about.

In this instance you bet play 8 as opposite (p1), which is going back to the primary progression after the ATR win at play 7.

I bet OTR at play 8 (b1) after the ATR win at play 7, since the last run from the 0 bet went to a 4iar. That was my thinking.

[Wendel]

It's the decision after play 7 that I'm talking about.

In this instance you bet play 8 as opposite (p1), which is going back to the primary progression after the ATR win at play 7.

I bet OTR at play 8 (b1) after the ATR win at play 7, since the last run from the 0 bet went to a 4iar. That was my thinking.

there is no run at play 7 ,just a sporadic 1 , any play ending in R(un) does not apply.

just go opposite, which is the primary bet of s40. The sporadic 1 terminated the 2iar on the player side.

Well, actually there is a 2iar zz. play the opposite.

[gman72]

there is no run at play 7 ,just a sporadic 1 , any play ending in R(un) does not apply.

just go opposite, which is the primary bet of s40. The sporadic 1 terminated the 2iar on the player side.

That's a good way to explain it. If the ATR bet wins, it has terminated the run on the other side, so now just go back to betting opposite with the primary progression. That seems like an easy enough solution, until you hit a TT run and then when the sec prog ATR bet wins after 2 or 3 2iar's, you start to wonder if you shouldn't bet OTR with the TT run. Just a thought.

[gman72]

IF you haven't already take a long look at post 65 in the Million Dollar Bacarat @ 5 thread.

After further review I believe I missed a couple of key points. Mainly the last two sentences.

[gman72]

Here's a shoe to practice on. Try this one with S40M1 and see how you do. There are a few spots where I can't decide what's the right way to bet.

image2014_05_06_14_21_440001.pdf

[newbacplayer]

Note: this is my attempt at S40M1: each line highlighted in yellow is the secondary progression. Tough shoe for this approach because certain shoe events repeated when we are betting against them repeating. Let me know what errors I've made so I can improve. Thanks, gb

Here's a shoe to practice on. Try this one with S40M1 and see how you do. There are a few spots where I can't decide what's the right way to bet.

[ATTACH]2926[/ATTACH]

[Wendel]

Here's a shoe to practice on. Try this one with S40M1 and see how you do. There are a few spots where I can't decide what's the right way to bet.

[ATTACH]2926[/ATTACH]

Hi Gman,

Could you please let me have a blank copy of this form (without the circles ) so that I could draw my

own circles on it ?

Thanka

[Guest]

Note: this is my attempt at S40M1: each line highlighted in yellow is the secondary progression. Tough shoe for this approach because certain shoe events repeated when we are betting against them repeating. Let me know what errors I've made so I can improve. Thanks, gb

Well, for what it's worth, here is newbacplayer's shoe played correctly to +5 S40M1. But remember, the three +5 systems are for preshuffled cards. With regular cards we are better off with NOR and in highly biased shoes which is what this is, NOR+. So after I post this shoe I'll replay it NOR+ OTB4L seeing as how it starts with 2 2s.

So how do I know these are not preshuffled cards?

First the quick -6 OR count. But then the fact that starting at play 3, it has 4 3+s before it has a 2 - highly unlikely in preshuffled cards.

BTW, I would have quit this shoe the 3rd time I hit 0. (play 16)

[Guest]

Whoops, I uploaded the wrong scan and it won't let me delete. So please ignore this whole post and I'll try again.

[Guest]

OK, here is newbacplayer's shoe played NOR+ OTB4L:

Notes:

Play 7: The OR Count is minus so I start in Mode 2 for straight runs and stay OTR for 2 bets. (Go OTR after 2 losing bets)

Play 15: The OR count is minus so I start in Mode 3 for ZZ runs. (Go OTR after 3 losing bets)

Play 30: The OR count is minus so I'm in Mode 3 for ZZs. (I go OTR at the 4 bet level for ONE bet.

Play 42: I go OTR at the 3 bet level because that is what would have worked at play 29.

Play 31: I'm playing NOR+ so my winning 4 goes to 2.

While the count is a little high negative for OTB4L, I note that was cause totally by the early 6 and not by the shoe in general. Then, high 3s and 2s confirm OTB4L.

+17 in 43 plays is about normal for NOR+.

[gman72]

Well, for what it's worth, here is newbacplayer's shoe played correctly to +5 S40M1. But remember, the three +5 systems are for preshuffled cards. With regular cards we are better off with NOR and in highly biased shoes which is what this is, NOR+. So after I post this shoe I'll replay it NOR+ OTB4L seeing as how it starts with 2 2s.

So how do I know these are not preshuffled cards?

First the quick -6 OR count. But then the fact that starting at play 3, it has 4 3+s before it has a 2 - highly unlikely in preshuffled cards.

I honestly don't know if these are preshuffled or not, but it is shoe #28 from Norm's 60 Vegas shoes.

And aren't we constantly told that Vegas is all preshuffled?

[newbacplayer]

I think this does relate to the discussion as to whether a variant of SB40M1 +5 is the best way to deal with neutral shoes, as mused about in a previous post. This suggests that some variant of OTB4L +5 will be a necessary tool in the arsenal. gb

I honestly don't know if these are preshuffled or not, but it is shoe #28 from Norm's 60 Vegas shoes.

And aren't we constantly told that Vegas is all preshuffled?

[Wendel]

I honestly don't know if these are preshuffled or not, but it is shoe #28 from Norm's 60 Vegas shoes.

And aren't we constantly told that Vegas is all preshuffled?

I don't think it matters if it isn't a pre shuffled shoe. All we are trying to do is practise the mechanics of s40M1 +5.

Besides , this seems to be a low risk mode free way to pick an average win of 5 units.

[ztomsk]

I think this does relate to the discussion as to whether a variant of SB40M1 +5 is the best way to deal with neutral shoes, as mused about in a previous post. This suggests that some variant of OTB4L +5 will be a necessary tool in the arsenal. gb

Problem is even good OTB4L shoes can have 4 iars both straight and ZZ. And if that happens back to back you're gona lose.

Hmm maybe trying OTB4L mode 1 is worth looking into. Might be a lot of 0 bets with that though... seems like it would be tough to get to +5 that way due to lack of bets.