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Hi all, here are some shoes from the 2 different casinos:

Marina Bay Sands

Shoe 1

B22124111411

B124513112

B22141114112

B4211122

Shoe 2

P21118223

B111131111211131

P1221325112

B112231234

Resort World Sentosa

Shoe 1

P23141351

P111121131323

P121523212

Shoe 2

P231211221131

P2123141411

P3111449

Stop loss -5. Prog 124.

I was stopped out of all the above-mentioned shoes with MDB+.

Hope to hear your advice.

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Hello miclus83

Sorry to hear you didn't win in those shoes

Actually they are ok for MDB+ and at a quick glance I scored +7, +9, 0, and +7 respectively (in order)

I didn't have an losing progressions and only the 3rd shoe ended before I could complete my progression so I broke even.

That's an average of +5.75 per shoe with no losing progressions

Are you playing your triggers correctly?

Also if you want to let a progression run from the start you have to allow 7 units as a stop loss for a worst case you lose your whole progression straight up but I would say that would be very rare - my first hit rate was very high - in the 90% range

With hit rates that we get for MDB+ just let your progression go as the chances of losing it should be rare.

I would love to come to Singapore and play - its only a 5 hr flight

I can post my play results for you when I have more time so you can see how I played them.

Brad

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You sound like you are one of the most accomplished players on this forum. Do you have the statistics for the other MDB+ triggers?

I play the 4's, which means "3 stay 3" and "4 goes to 5'. As I mentioned, I do not play these signals when they occur late in the shoe -- don't have a hard rule, but if the game is well into the 3rd column (around 45-55 plays), I will pass on the signal.

To date, my 3 stay 3 signals have won 92% of the time; and the 4 goes to 5 is at 100%.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Hi hi..im new here,from singapore just join few day,i want learn fast,i have many question to ask,can i post here...thks,hope master ellis or brother can help me,untill now i still don know table game at singapore casino use what card,at machine no touch also don know?can i ask,

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Hi hi..im new here,from singapore just join few day,i want learn fast,i have many question to ask,can i post here...thks,hope master ellis or brother can help me,untill now i still don know table game at singapore casino use what card,at machine no touch also don know?can i ask,

Welcome to the board. It is great to want to learn fast, however, I would also suggest you invest the time to study the posts and practice and think through what you see there. This is not a get rich quick scheme. Your success will be very dependent on what you put in (study and practice). Just learning some mechanical systems will not, IMO, make you long term successful at baccarat. Good luck, and ask questions!

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Please post some shoes then which have problems for mdb+ and we will look at them and see if we can modify rules. The shoes below posted are ok

Way2fast,where are u from...?i see singapore shoe,can produce high 2s,can more than 5pair,signal 21,22,were high hit rates,31,33,bet opposite ok,so many pair,can produe crazy 22222,3333,4444...
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Also got question mdb can play preshuffle card,less say player produced 2s have between tie,we call that 2s also,we don care about tie isit

At BTC, we ignore ties altogether. We don't even include them on our score card. It is as if the play never happened.

So for instance a P T P, we would record as a PP.

Only rank amateurs bet ties. They are one of the worst bets in the entire casino. Yes, they pay 8 to 1. But they only occur 1 in ten. Do the math.

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Guys look! MDB+ is designed to beat RANDOM cards. We call cards random when all events are occurring close to their normal mathematical frequency of occurrence:

a 1 every 4 plays

a 2 every 8 plays

a 3 every 16 plays

a 4 every 32 plays

etc

This we call the 50 % rule.

Another way of determining how random a shoe is the SAP count

The closer your SAP counts are, the more random the shoe is and the more susceptible it is to MDB+

What MDB+ does NOT like is strong biases. (wide spread SAP counts) What it LIKEs is equal or near equal SAP counts

For instance 5 2s W/O a 3. That is highly biased. MDB+ hates that but OTB4L loves high 2s.

That is way too many 2s and not enough 3s.

A shoe is either random or it is biased. There are no other possibilities.

If it is random or anywhere close to random, MDB+ will beat it soundly.

On the other hand NOR functions on biases. It likes the shoes MDB+ doesn't like. NOR LIKES non random:

High 1's and hi 1's and 2s is S40

High 2s and hi 2s and 3s is OTB4L

Low 2s is always TB4L because 2s are the ONLY thing TB4L loses to.

High 3s and high 3+s is TB4L

High 1s and high 3+s is TB4L

Look, if a shoe is high in something, it must also be equally low in something. That is what NOR likes and soundly beats.

But if a shoe is not high or lo in anything it is RANDOM. That is what MDB+ likes.

Every shoe ever dealt is either one or the other. There are no other possibilities.

But particularly with streaky shoes you can also get a Strong Side.

Whenever one side is stronger than the other by 2 to 1 or more, F will beat it. Particularly F3.

So if one side can't produce more that a 1 iar it is F2.

While if one side can't produce more than a 2 iar, it is F3.

These are universal rules of Math.

I guarantee you, the cards do not know or care what country they are in.

Different shoe types in different countries or at different casinos are caused by the initial card prep procedure a casino uses with regular cards.

Regular cards are cards that were origionally in 8 sealed boxes in boxed card order and then "prepped" nearly always including a "wash".

Some casinos prep their regular cards at the table and some prep them elsewhere.

Other casinos, like Vegas and Singapore use "factory preshuffled cards".

When casinos buy preshuffled cards they MUST designate the card orders they want.

Vegas happens to buy random card orders. So do many other casinos.

But that does NOT mean that preshuffled cards will always produce random MDB+ shoes.

Some casinos, such as Singapore, prefer biased cards. They buy whichever card orders they do the best with.

But the secret to measuring bias or lack of bias (random) is the SAP count:

That is what tells you if it is an MDB+ shoe (the SAP counts are close or equal)

or a NOR shoe. (high SAP disparity)

EVERY shoe is one or the other. SAP goes like this:

Every time the shoe produces an opposite, it changes the SAP count.

So you fill in your SAP counts every time the shoe produces an opposite.

Only 1 count will change with each opposite. But each opposite completes an event.

Give 1's 1 point each

Give 2s 2 points each

Give 3s 4 points each

Give 4s 8 points each

And give 5 or mores 8 points each

If the SAP counts are close it is an MDB+ shoe

But if the SAP counts are NOT close, it is a NOR shoe.

What is the shoe hi in and what is it lo in??? That tells you which NOR system to play.

Just don't be switching systems every time you lose a bet.

The fewer switches the better. And if you go by your SAP counts you will be switching the least.

REMEMBER:

Random (equal SAP counts) = MDB+

Biased (unequal SAP counts) = NOR

Which does YOUR casino favor???

What is the shoe at hand favoring???

Learn what each system LIKES AND what it dislikes.

THAT is how you play Baccarat successfully.

There is a best way to play EVERY shoe ever dealt. And your SAP count tells you what it is.

E. Clifton Davis

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Please post some shoes then which have problems for mdb+ and we will look at them and see if we can modify rules. The shoes below posted are ok

NO! Don't be changing MDB+! If a shoe does not like MDB+ it is a NOR shoe. Play NOR - not some bastardized MDB+.

So OK, you learned MDB+. Great, but that doesn't mean you can forget NOR.

Are there too many 2s or too many 2s and 3s ? Fine, play OTB4L, NOT MDB+

OTB4L LIKES high 2s - MDB+ DOESN'T!

Play what IS! Not what you wish it was.

Wishing is for amateurs. Pros play what IS.

Edited by Ellis
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What if the whole table is betting the other side???

GOOD! The average player LOSES at the incredible rate of at least 15%.

The game odds against you, including commission, are only 1.25%.

So if the whole table is betting the other side - GOOD - they usually lose.

But they get pissed off! GOOD - ALL losers get pissed off. Stick to YOUR play.

I don't know how they came up with the name "Baccarat"

Just listening to the table, they should call it "Oh Shit"!

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hey Ellis, if I play nor with u1d2m2, how do I cope with the high progression? you said we shouldn't keep switching strategy but when we do the progression will be quite high right? and if we made a wrong decision, we are screwed..

when doing the sap count, when do we decide to start betting? if the sap count are equal at mid game and we start betting with MDB, what if we can't finish the progressions?

I wish Ellis could be in singapore casinos and tell us what u think we should be doing!

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Fair call Ellis sorry for trying to fool around with your system and thanks for clearing things up for us all.

Started out with a few minor tweaks and then got carried away trying to make it win on everything instead of only playing it on the shoes that are suited.

Yes I guess that is the big downfall with going straight to MDB+ - its so fast to learn compared to NOR us new guys tend to forget about NOR a little.

I've just reread my manual and the NOR bootcamp notes

Bighorn the NOR bootcamp is worth it to do in my opinion as it has tips for exactly what you are talking about - I did it and it shows how to deal with these issues.

Definitely don't keep betting up as you lose when you are losing more bets than you win and not sure whether your selection is right. Suspend till a paper win or more - nobody says you have to keep betting till you lose all your BR.

Post some shoes Bighorn I'm interested to see what Singapore is doing - as soon as I conquer Perth it will be my next stop!

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Hi Ellis,

I like your comment.. I don't know how they came up with the name "Baccarat"

Just listening to the table, they should call it "Oh Shit"!

That should be a signature.. As far as the couple modifications way2fast uses yes I do

believe it is useful because playing just on the MDB+ triggers alone even in a random SAP

count do not always work out good with numerous loss progressions.

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I got this theory I thought I would share. Singapore shoes appear to be similar to my casino in that they are not always great for MDB+ - I hear many players complain they don't work so well due to high number of 1's , 2's, 3's, compared to 4's and 4+ 's

This means we get few opportunities to be the 4's go to 5 and 3's stay 3 - and when we do they are often late in the shoe.

Also there is a better chance that the 2's and 3's bets will lose the progression due to many 2's or 3's produced without higher or lower events in between.

Could these shoe types be susceptible to F system ?

Have we maybe forgotten F system a little due to the introduction of TB4L / S40M1 and also the low number of streaks happening?

I know when learning NOR I payed the least attention to it and focused on S40, OTBL, TB4L

But I remember Ellis showing how a shoe from Philipines or at least Asia was good for F system within last few weeks

Several I tested have worked great for F3 when I was looking at what would work against them.

F will win against 1's and 2's easily and hold its own against 3's in F3 and then will clean up on the streaks on either side.

I found the shoes tend to favour one side for a while and then switch to the other for a while so F will follow that trend perfectly.

2 Singapore shoes I just tested came out +13 with highest bet of 3, and I waited for the trigger for F until I started as its always easier to play in hindsight and I didn't want to do that.

Other one I jumped straight into with F3 and came out +21 with highest bet of 4 - never did I go below -2 and that was right at the start. If we knew these shoes are being produced consistently and F3 works could we jump straight in as a default with caution for a difference and a tight stop loss?

I want to test all the Singapore posted shoes to prove or dispel this - theres a few here already posted hope to have time tonight.

More shoes from Singapore would be good as Singapore is a 5 hr flight for me and so would really love to figure this out!

Look forward to any comments on this.

Brad

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I got this theory I thought I would share. Singapore shoes appear to be similar to my casino in that they are not always great for MDB+ - I hear many players complain they don't work so well due to high number of 1's , 2's, 3's, compared to 4's and 4+ 's

This means we get few opportunities to be the 4's go to 5 and 3's stay 3 - and when we do they are often late in the shoe.

Also there is a better chance that the 2's and 3's bets will lose the progression due to many 2's or 3's produced without higher or lower events in between.

I'm not sure I buy this as a reason why a shoe doesn't do well with MDB+. Most of the best shoes are very high in 2s and 3s. Nothing better than a shoe spitting out 2s and 3s as it gives many repeat signals and the opportunity for a lot of MDB+ bets. It isn't the frequency of events that is important, but rather the random nature of the events. For example, a shoe that is high in both 2s and 3s will likely not have five 2s before a single 3, and vice-versa. MDB+ typically cleans up in these shoes. Now if you are saying it is a shoe that produces only 3s and no 2s, that is a different story -- but also an extremely rare occurrence. Also, having 4 goes to 5 signals is not the measure of a good MDB+ shoe. They just don't occur often because the majority of shoes are rich in 1,2 and 3s (I believe they collectively account for 87.5% of all events -- Ellis can confirm the math). Of all the MDB+ signals I have taken, less than 1% of them are 4 going to 5.

I don't dispute what you say about F. It can be an effective way to play as it does well with so many events. The only issue is that unless it is very strong sided, one of our other ways to play is always better.

The most important thing is to play based on what you see occurring in front of you at the table. On Saturday I was walking in Vegas through the Cosmopolitan on the way from Caesars to Aria and decided to take a look at the HL tables. There was a bac game in progress, about 10-15 plays so far, that looked promising. It was fairly choppy, so I decided to play NB2Hi until some MDB+ signals appeared. About to make my bet, I realized it was a $500 minimum table -- I usually like to play NB2Hi at just $200 units. It was a good chop pattern, so just went ahead and played anyway. Shoe was only spitting out 1s and 2s, so I quickly gave up on looking for MDB+ signals and just played Chop Play, quickly moving to a 1,2,1,2 loop. Hit 20 units and left the table after 15 minutes. The other two players at the table couldn't beleive it. They were classic streak players -- trying to make every 2 go to a 3, despite the clear evidence the shoe was giving them they did not change. They considered me "lucky" as i paid the marker and left for the cage with the winnings. It reminded me of the most important lesson at BTC -- you must be aware of the events as they occur. You can't play a predetermined system, and hoping for your favorite pattern is not a winning strategy.

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Hi Way2fast,

I hope things went well for you in Vegas. The next time you are in Vegas I want to try and get down there to

meet up with you. The last time I was in Vegas I was at a station casino and did get a chance to drop by ARIA and

I noticed that at there BAC tables they have one person dressed in a suit at each table just standing there breathing down

your neck. Do you ever feel annoyed of that? I know we are not cheating but considering it is a higher end casino they stare at you

like you just robbed them before you even sat down. Station casino are more layed back and spacey. I know norm would play there

from his previous posts. Morongo casino at least there is one pitboss or 2 max for all there bac tables..

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Hi Way2fast,

I hope things went well for you in Vegas. The next time you are in Vegas I want to try and get down there to

meet up with you. The last time I was in Vegas I was at a station casino and did get a chance to drop by ARIA and

I noticed that at there BAC tables they have one person dressed in a suit at each table just standing there breathing down

your neck. Do you ever feel annoyed of that? I know we are not cheating but considering it is a higher end casino they stare at you

like you just robbed them before you even sat down. Station casino are more layed back and spacey. I know norm would play there

from his previous posts. Morongo casino at least there is one pitboss or 2 max for all there bac tables..

Hi cashout, the table supervisor watching over the games is there for two reasons. First, the bigger players that frequent those games need an accurate rating, which is hard to do with bac unless you watch how they bet pretty much all the time. Second, they are there to watch the dealers. There is serious money going back and forth on those tables and, frankly, they do not trust the dealers. They also have to track every chip denomination above a certain amount (typically the 1000 chips and up at the major strip HL rooms, but some places track even 100 chips). Their precense doesn't bother me. They tend to be friendly and you can joke with most of them. It comes with the territory -- you can't expect to make large wagers trying to take the casinos money without them keeping an eye on the process. A good strategy is to be nice and friendly with all of the pit critters -- a friendly atmosphere is more enjoyable to play in. I have never had any attitude from any of the pit critters and they always pretend to be happy for you when you leave a winner. There is one supervisor at Aria that I have become friendly with -- she always comes by to say hello and cautions me to be sure to leave a winner and not give it back. Last time I was there in early Feb she mentioned how she has never seen me lose -- haha! I told her she should follow me around to other casinos where I give it all back. You always want the pit critters to think you are just another degenerate gambler.

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Hi way2fast,

Thanks I have a better understand now. It's just some thing I did not notice

at the other casinos I have been to and to be honest I have not paid much attention at the other

Vegas casinos to see if they do the same thing. Let me know when you go to Vegas next time and I will

get down there to meet up with you.

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Hi cashout, the table supervisor watching over the games is there for two reasons. First, the bigger players that frequent those games need an accurate rating, which is hard to do with bac unless you watch how they bet pretty much all the time. Second, they are there to watch the dealers. There is serious money going back and forth on those tables and, frankly, they do not trust the dealers. They also have to track every chip denomination above a certain amount (typically the 1000 chips and up at the major strip HL rooms, but some places track even 100 chips). Their precense doesn't bother me. They tend to be friendly and you can joke with most of them. It comes with the territory -- you can't expect to make large wagers trying to take the casinos money without them keeping an eye on the process. A good strategy is to be nice and friendly with all of the pit critters -- a friendly atmosphere is more enjoyable to play in. I have never had any attitude from any of the pit critters and they always pretend to be happy for you when you leave a winner. There is one supervisor at Aria that I have become friendly with -- she always comes by to say hello and cautions me to be sure to leave a winner and not give it back. Last time I was there in early Feb she mentioned how she has never seen me lose -- haha! I told her she should follow me around to other casinos where I give it all back. You always want the pit critters to think you are just another degenerate gambler.

This is extremely well thought out and well said. I always act as if my win is a surprise to me. Like, "For crying out loud, I Finally won a shoe!"

But so far I've never heard of anyone getting barred for winning at Bac.

BJ yes but Bac, no.

Nevertheless, don't be the first. Be friendly. Act like a loser.

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Singapore shoes ARE different. They aren't pure MDB+. You guys get a lot of NOR shoes but not purely NOR either.

If it is the last thing I do, I want to develop a Strategy for Singapore - When to go WITH the bias (NOR)

And when to go against the bias (MDB+)

I think the answer lies with the SAP count - how quickly it is dispersing early on

vs how slowly it is dispersing.

Not only do I need Singapore shoes, I also need information about the shoes:

which casino?

time of day? and day of the week?

new cards or old?

touch or no touch?

Look, every casino has their own philosophy. Somebody is responsible for Bac profits.

I need to get into his head and discover his strategy.

Yes, these guys are highly paid and the job is very competible.

But, in the end, they are mere humans with human strategies AND human weakneses.

I made a lot of money playing casinos - both BJ and Bac

But the secret is discovering THEIR secret

AND knowing how to take advantage of it.

Somebody already said: "It's too bad Ellis isn't there."

BUT, we've got the next best thing - YOU are there.

I need to see what you see.

There is no such thing as an unbeatable casino.

There is always a best way.

We need a Singapore shoe thread.

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