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Just goes to show you never know what you are going to get and the casinos will switch it up every so often to put people off?

I'm sure the infamous shoe with 'no 2's' on the crawl still bugs Ellis!

Yep! I still lose sleep over that. That's what happens when you tie your own hands.

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Bac in Vegas has been organized for years at least on the Strip.

Whatever one casino is doing, they are all doing it.

I remember one trip in the early '90's, every shoe, every casino

had at least one 20iar in it. About the time everybody gets used to that,

they ALL switch to super chop.

These look like designer shoes to me. I'm guessing they were touch games???

The first shoe SAP is telling you OTB4L. OTB4LM3 U1D2M2 struggles through it.

BUT the second shoe, SAP is telling you TB4L the first 17 plays or so.

But you walk right into the 2224 and get killed.

Here's the first shoe just for the fun of it:

post-8-14500262703121_thumb.jpg

Trying to get something going -

I switched to U1D1 at play 47

That's what happens when you try to play at 3 AM

Edited by Ellis
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Hey NTRL9, thanks for posting the shoes and a summary of how you did. I wouldn't say these shoes are out of character for Vegas, but it is a little unusual that in 20 shoes there is a pretty strong consistent theme of lots of 1s and low 3s. I would be interested what casinos these shoes are from, and whether they are touch games or no touch where the cards are re-used.

Just doing an initial scan of the shoes, I get +30 using MDB+ the way I prefer to play it with delayed progressions (2,4,2,1,5,-3,2,-4,0,0,1,3,1,1,1,2,3,4,4,1). Out of curiosity, I looked further at the two loosing shoes to see if SAP would have told me anything. On the first one (shoe6), at the point of decision the counts for 3s and 4s were three times the 1s. Using that as a sign of a biased shoe, you could have avoided a couple bets and probably finished up 1 or 2 units in the shoe instead of -3. In shoe 8, the counts were 7 6 8 8. Perfect randomness, yet in this case the ensuing MDB+ bets lost.

It is easier to sit through these shoes waiting for MDB+ bets if you are also looking for other betting opportunities. I am having very good results just looking for either S40 or OTBL setups and then looking to make a short sequence of bets to capture 2-3 units per setup. What's a set up? Well, I'm sorry there are no hard and fast rules, I'm really just going by experience. But if the shoe is showing periods of choppiness, I would look for something like a 12112 and would then bet opposite the 2. Again, this is an example, not a rule. I have to say, most of your 20 shoes look like they would have been rich in these type of setups, so I would like to think capturing another 20 units and having to carry home those 50 units was doable. Of course, it's easy to see this when looking at the shoes now. Real world is always harder, and really don't know how I would have played the shoes at the time.

BTW, this thread IS in the MDB forum.

All music to my ears, way!

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Here' s a bit of Bac2TheFuture for those of you just wanting to win a few units per shoe, and STOP when you do...or Don't

I did not " invent" this, just putting it into context of today's Baccarat environment

Pre-shuffled, or not.

Look, 50% of all events should be 1-IAR'S, and 25% 2-IAR'S, over the course of your " session experience" , whether 1 shoe played at a single casino, or 20 shoes played out over 3 days at different casinos...

N.O. - it will not be exact, whether per-shoe, or for 20

But, unless the casino is plundering and pillaging relentlessly, or all of Vegas is " in cahoots" with one-another, it pretty much will be...

So here is an old-school " system" , resurrected from the bone-pile, with a modern-day twist ( takes into account NOR bias + RegressionTo The Mean attributes of MDB)

Just glance at the tote board and look at/keep track of three things:

OTBL

Opposite

Repeat

Rules:

Anytime last hand resulted in an OTBL " win", no matter what bet,OTBL again next hand

Anytime last hand DID NOT result in an OTBL win , bet THE SAME AS whether the last hand was an Opposite, or a Repeat of the previous hand.

Example:

Was last hand OTBL? Opposite? Repeat? ( of the previous hand)

If answer was :

OTBL - YES

O - YES

R-NO

You must bet The next hand will be an OTBL result.

If last hand was

OTBL - YES

O- NO

R - YES

You must bet the next hand will be an OTBL result.

Note: If next hand would be a repeat of the result from the prior hand ( OTBL + O, or OTBL + R), this indicates and even stronger bet on OTBL result for the next hand....but in any case, bet OTBL regardless if the last hand was an OTBL result...

Now, if last hand DID NOT result in an OTBL result compared to the previous hand, but instead was just an O or R result from the previous play, just bet that the next hand will repeat as an O or R result again.

Best use is for small overall wins per shoe ( 1,2,3+ units)...then move on to another shoe, leave casino, etc.

EZ to apply w/progressions, or not...

This is great " hit and run" baccarat, or moving table to table, as opposed to playing whole shoes or waiting for MDB triggers

Does well if shoe is producing lots of 1's , or 2/3's in a given section of the shoe

Or.....lots of 4+ steaks in a shoe..., with normal amount of 1s, 2's 3's as a % of normal distribution...

AND REMEMBER, best for " hit it and forget it" advantage play...( thanks, TRBFLA)

Good luck, and give it a quick try for just a few hands, selected randomly, from your previously played shoes...

Cool thanks for sharing - def a good way to play for a few units. Is this the same as OTBL mode 1 - stay on the run until it ends? Looks like the only thing that can go wrong it hittin a 313131...

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Hey, ZT

Like A.N.Y.T.H.I.N.G., this " quick and EZ" method will keep your grandmother knowing why she began to can goods to get through the lean months...

But grandma knows for sure, people can tend to over complicate things...( like thinking there's a better grandpa out there perfectly suited for her...)

I frequently play at a casino called The Gold Coast, and since they let you just " walk around" and make single bets, then move onto the next table, an hour or so into my " hit-and-run-play" at all 14 tables , this one came back to me...I just added the OTBL rule, and away I went for another couple of hours

It's TonyTheTiger strong for flat betting, and with a progression it's pretty darn good...

Try it and you'll see why.

Kevin

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Hi Kevin, thanks for this, I have been pondering something similar in my mind whilst walking past the tote boards on roulette tables at my casino.

There's lots of them in rows and time after time after time all I see are predominantly 1's, 2's, and occasional 3's and occasional 4 and 4+ streaks and I have been thinking: Am I looking at a gold mine here?

This could very well be what I have been looking for - initial testing looks real good and yeah you are right - flat bet is good, U1D2 or U1D1 is pretty darn good.

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Hey Kevin would you mind to elaborate on the below:

Note: If next hand would be a repeat of the result from the prior hand ( OTBL + O, or OTBL + R), this indicates and even stronger bet on OTBL result for the next hand....but in any case, bet OTBL regardless if the last hand was an OTBL result...

I've re read it about 5 times but just cant work out what it means.

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Hi Guys,

Below shoes are from Marina Bay Sands Singapore Rapid Table Game section played this week, from what I can see, they are the same type of cards used in the touch games.

B212452122111121111121211312233111132211

P221212136311115214111631312314311

P1322111347166112511213237132

P3111312213131351112131516131125321

B153152921212311114111211113221215

B1223413381111154224161121115121

B12411163214121311123212211111221111113121131

P21222221321211111(11)61111111111413134

P3341211231643211921213212221311

P12122123121711111212121212123234111221122

P312114212322213111111311211611112432112211

B223111424211411215315412114154

P3111321311622431214121522211214121

P42122211132342141613111112311141111212

P24157121213111336312111111221153

I used the original Ellis rules but using SAP to decide to shift to Way2Fast's delayed progression or not play at all.

Also waiting for the 1st trigger confirmed as they do throw out biased shoes.

Would appreciate it if the members can give their feedback on these shoes and if they can be played better.

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:cool:

Hey Kevin would you mind to elaborate on the below:

Note: If next hand would be a repeat of the result from the prior hand ( OTBL + O, or OTBL + R), this indicates and even stronger bet on OTBL result for the next hand....but in any case, bet OTBL regardless if the last hand was an OTBL result...

I've re read it about 5 times but just cant work out what it means.

Brad-

Sorry for the confusion...I originally " voice texted myself " this while I was at the Gold Coast, then posted it to the forum using my iPad , without a close " edit" of that particular part of my post...

You are right...it is confusing, and pretty much impossible!

At least you understand the " simplicity" of the " triggers" and how to apply them...

GREAT for just cruising through a casino, placing a handful of bets...

Many, many times you'll just have to place ONE BET! THEN MOVE ON.....

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I can just picture it:

Cruising between 4 or 5 roulette tables (or baccarat tables if you prefer) playing the even chances, and picking up the chips when you win.

Only problem is when the tables are crowded and you cant be bothered colouring up where do you put all the chips!

Hey Kevin how far do you go on 1 table before you quit it and move on?

Would you keep going for a stop loss of say -5 or would you 'spread the risk' and when you lose on one table move to another straight away and let the law of averages bail you out?

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looking at the Singapore shoes I am convinced they are very similar to my casino in Australia.

The fact is many Asian people from Singapore fly into Perth for business and holiday as its very close - I can fly to Singapore in the same time I can fly to Sydney from Perth is. Perth makes it money from Chinese high rollers from Singapore, Malaysia,, and China.

I been in the high rollers room once and they were playing bacc for 150k a hand - all chinese players

Therefore I think they use the same card preps in Singapore as Perth.

An OTBL type shoe but with ZZ's, straights meaning I play OTBL but use M2 for ZZ's and straights but many times I ride out the streaks until they end and don't just stay for 2 bets as it is common to see a lot of long ZZ's and straights to throw people off - it always returns to a OTBL type shoe

MDB+ does work but you have to remember there are certain bets that will not work - 2's are a very dangerous bet to make with MDB+ due to the high number of them

Better wait until 3's start running or don't play 2's at all I think

I am so sure by looking at those that they are the same shoe type that I played the first shoe blind in OTBL M2 / ride out the streak to prove or disprove my theory and I will play the rest in due time too but you can see the results look promising.

Also see the MDB+ bets I would have played too - really only the 2's I would have been hesitant on:

post-3840-14500262705528_thumb.jpg

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Picked shoe 10 at random:

OTBL = +32

MDB+ = -5

Lost out on the sporadic 1's bet - it produced 5 in a row - had I of delayed it 2 3 sporadic 1's before betting that 1 goes 11 then I would have won that bet and come out ahead in the shoe

way2fast please refresh my mind on your latest play on this bet: after 2 single 1's bet next 1 goes 11 ? OR after 3 single 1's bet the next 1 goes 11?

I remember you said this was your strongest bet so couldn't remember if you delayed that one?

Any Singapore players care to comment on this type of play?

Maybe some test results of the below or real play in this way?

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Hey, Brad

Have to answer with a couple of " seemingly conflicting" answers, so don't think I am a ball of confusion...

1) Anyone of us here has ever been to a casino like the GC, or ANYWHERE, let's you make an " over the top of other players bets". , then move on to the next table understands the " value" that proposition bet accords you....make a bet....win/ lose....should I stay or should I go?

Some parts of the world, including several USA, give you that choice.

So, not sure I can give you a definitive answer, except to say I LUV to " Take the money and run", meaning that given a choice, and with the opportunity to place a single bet, then move on to another table, I am likely to do just that ...win or lose.

2) Which brings up the subject of PROGRESSIONS. You play long enough, you should have enough tools in the toolbox to make sure you can WinMoreThanULose, even flat betting....( I'll let you figure this out)

3) There are Times , and Places, where we simply have to deal with a casino with a single table, or maybe two....with no other options for hundreds of miles

- and there simply is no magic number, no " do this in 5, or else"...( never measure ...or wager... your stop-loss or stop-win parameters up against the player whose bankroll seems larger, but for which you have no empirical evidence as to sits size or origin). InOtherWords, stop worrying about KeepingUpWIthTheJones's ( or The Kardashians), and focus on The Game.

Your bankroll. Your Knowledge. Your Reality.

You come this far in your Baccarat education, the only one you are competing against is YOU. The only one can beat you is YOU.

So since we are on the MDB ( Mostly Determined Believers) forum, I have to tell you the truth.

I do what makes sense to me.

In the moment.

With what I have in my pocket.

I stopped visiting Casino ATM's a long time ago.

Anyone smart, experienced enough, or simply willing to lay out the dough to be on this MDB forum knows e.x.a.c.t.l.y. what I am talking about...

And since it seems to invoke feelings of consternation as to why I might invoke the lessons of others to explain a simple game like Baccarat, I'll let you figure out what The Temptatations and The Steve Miller Band have to do with this post, if anything...

Smile.

You're on CandidCamera.

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Shoe 20 Singapore picked at random

played OTBL stay on all runs after 2 losses revert to OTBL after 1 loss OTR

= +8 with best position of +19

MDB+ = +5

If all goes to plan when I sell or close my business later this year I'll definitely be coming to Singapore to play as one of the first stops.

Would really like some feedback from Singapore players on this proposed method of play and if this shoe type is consistent?

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Ok have to do EOFY invoices (boring).

A few all nighters coming up.

One more Singapore shoe played to prove my point before I get stuck into it:

Shoe 19 selected at random played blind the same way - OTBL M2 Straight & ZZ but stay OTR till loss

MDB+ normal / delayed progressions how I would play but stay away from the 2's MDB+ bets:

post-3840-14500262705816_thumb.jpg

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Singapore players - if this shoe type is consistent then the only thing that can hurt this OTBL play is lots of 4's AND lots of 3ZZ's

In which case if you have to change modes.

As long as 2's and 2's and 3's are strong though the chances of lots of 4's vs 4+'s should be fairly random so U1D2 will get thru it and what you lose on a 4 you make up on a 4+.

MDB+ is pretty good except stay away from 2's

That's what put me off MDB+ at the start when I started playing in Perth - I was constantly losing on 2's - sometimes 10 x 2's iar row with no 3's or 3+'s

I think they make the shoes this way as most Asian players look for runs - either straight or ZZ and this shoe type gives them enough hope to think they are winning when they catch a few - and then the OTBL burns them and then they bet big looking for another run and then you see them start slamming the table!

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Hi jw2210

When I was playing at MBS, the Rapid Baccarat were NOT preshuffled cards

They had 2 automatic shuffle machines and alternated the decks accordingly

So it is no surprise that the shoes are not MDB+ friendly - in fact in my report

I said as much.

So we need to be sure we are all taking about the same thing here

Although MDB+ CAN work with some machine shuffled shoes, that's not what

it was designed for.

I did not have enough time to check too many hand shuffled shoes at MBS there but my

first glance was that they were not easy, and I could not figure them out.

Maybe as you say they are similar to the Rapid Baccarat shoes

cheers

Pando

Hi Guys,

Below shoes are from Marina Bay Sands Singapore Rapid Table Game section played this week, from what I can see, they are the same type of cards used in the touch games.

B212452122111121111121211312233111132211

P221212136311115214111631312314311

P1322111347166112511213237132

P3111312213131351112131516131125321

B153152921212311114111211113221215

B1223413381111154224161121115121

B12411163214121311123212211111221111113121131

P21222221321211111(11)61111111111413134

P3341211231643211921213212221311

P12122123121711111212121212123234111221122

P312114212322213111111311211611112432112211

B223111424211411215315412114154

P3111321311622431214121522211214121

P42122211132342141613111112311141111212

P24157121213111336312111111221153

I used the original Ellis rules but using SAP to decide to shift to Way2Fast's delayed progression or not play at all.

Also waiting for the 1st trigger confirmed as they do throw out biased shoes.

Would appreciate it if the members can give their feedback on these shoes and if they can be played better.

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Hi Pando we have the same automatic machine shuffled alternating decks here in Perth which is why when I saw those 20 shoes it is very familiar to what we get here in terms of the characterisitics.

I have been studying them for a while now and I believe my OTBL works and it does work in Perth and it has worked on 50% of these samples I've tested so far.

Every single one of the 50% I have played the same way not switching modes or even considering - just playing through the same way - OTR after 2 losses and stay there till a loss then go back to OTBL - every shoe has a profit from +8 up to +32 but obviously if one chose to quit at the right time then the average would be up around +20 I think

MDB+ averages +3 as I had some losses but I don't really consider myself an experienced MDB+ player and if I was then I would probably know better how to take or not take certain triggers in certain situations and therefore not had many or any losses and my MDB+ average would be +5.

I could of extended triggers to 3 events in some cases and also avoided a loss of progression that way.

I would ask any Singapore players to try my theory and prove / disprove it since there have been a few Singapore players that claim nothing seems to work for them.

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Hi Brad,

Thanks for all of this

This information is totally consistent with what I found in Singapore

The shoes that were posted were similar to what I saw although I did

not play them as they were machine shuffled.

We have the same automatic shuffle machines here in Auckland so I

will have a look at a few shoes and see if your playing method is viable

for them. I cannot se a reason why it would not be.

If so it would be extremely useful for times when the hand shuffled games

are a bit slow, as they are sometimes

Keep up the good work. Its by us talking to each other that we all benefit.

BTW if you are heading to Singapore, please let me know, it would be great to

catch up with you and the Singapore players

regards

Pando

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Hi Pando will definitely let you know how I'm going and if planning to travel

Practising hard and planning big things this year.

And they'll come your way too, Brad! You are developing a clear and complete overall picture of the game -

good dexterity! Exactly what I'm trying to portray in the new manual.

And, like way2fast, you share your wisdon, clarity and insight with others giving them good reason for hope.

We are all glad to have you aboard!

Guys, this cancer surgery I had was a much bigger deal than I had realized. But I'm recouperating nicely

and will be back in full swing shortly. Feeling pretty good, considering.

Edited by Ellis
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Hi Brad,

Thanks for all of this

This information is totally consistent with what I found in Singapore

The shoes that were posted were similar to what I saw although I did

not play them as they were machine shuffled.

We have the same automatic shuffle machines here in Auckland so I

will have a look at a few shoes and see if your playing method is viable

for them. I cannot se a reason why it would not be.

If so it would be extremely useful for times when the hand shuffled games

are a bit slow, as they are sometimes

Keep up the good work. Its by us talking to each other that we all benefit.

BTW if you are heading to Singapore, please let me know, it would be great to

catch up with you and the Singapore players

regards

Pando

Singapore has been a thorn in my side. But OTB4L covers more territory than any other system -

especially if you know one OTB4L trick of the trade we used to dicuss but has got lost in a flood of verbiage.

Suppose you have high 3s instead of 2s ???

Well 3s merely break about even playing TB4L - and maybe worse.

BUT, 3s can be a huge advantage playing OTB4L.

You are going to win on 3s with OTB4L no matter what you do.

But high 3s with low 2s - try this:

Instead of bettng across under a 2, bet down under a 2 and bet across under a 3.

This way, high 3s gives you a huge advantage. Half the time you will win at least 4 bets in a row

and maybe more - depending on what the 3,1 does.

The other half of the time you win 3 bets in a row and maybe more. See that?

It also helps you out a lot on 4+s.

A neat trick!

Now, don't do this all the time -

Just when you have high 3s with lo 2s.

Usually when you have this situation you also have a negative O/R count.

So now you go OTR after ONE losing bet instead of 2. Puts you back in sync with Mode 2.

Maybe that will give you a little taste of the new manual.

Edited by Ellis
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Thanks for that Ellis glad you are feeling better - every day in life is a battle you know!

I will try the high 3's trick

Maybe this OTBL is the way to beat Singapore shoes

I also found sample shoe 18 has high 4's and high 4ZZ and so if we switch to M3 instead of M2 then it beats that.

Apart from that my OTBL M2 OTR beats most if not all of them

Also MDB+ averages about +3

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