How to use NOR the right way and win most of the shoes

[brad01]

Only 3's and 2's is OTBL

Although short term setups if keep continuously getting same events then can look to go flat bet OTBL continuous until 2 or 3 losses or use 1,2 progression

In strong bias we have to try and recognise and capitalise

Second half of shoe is repeat and strong bias too

Even a little OTBL mixed in but the beauty is repeat bet still break even on OTBL bias, only lose to opposite

NOTICE THE LAST SECTION IS ANOTHER PERFECT S40M1 /  SITUATION BECAUSE A LOT OF REPEATS MEANING 2ZZ'S AND ALSO 2 STRAIGHTS BUNCHED TOGETHER - THEN WE SEE LONG ZZ AND LONG STRAIGHT AND NO 2'S SO THAT IS THE TIME TO SWITCH TO S40M1 / TBL

THIS SHOE HAS STRONG / LONG BIASES

Also MDB+ has some wins in there too

 

 

[William Looi]

This shoe is easy cake , good to use NOR I got 3 unite.

[brad01]

B113233222211241124362321115111

32 = OTBL = win

323 = OTBL again = win

33 = Repeat = loss

32 = OTBL = win

Strong OTBL bias (3 of 4 wins)

Go OTBL till 2 losses

wwwwwLL

5 wins / 2 loss = +3 on the run

24 = repeat = loss (thinking about taking this one out as not getting results I want - maybe only use 34, 43, 33)

24 = repeat = win (maybe not - 50% win so far this shoe)

43 = repeat = win

36 (trigger at 33) = win - that's 3 repeat wins in a row - go repeat till 2 losses

wwLwLwwLwLL = +2 on the run

1115 (trigger at 1113 as strong repeat / OTBL / 2's clumping followed by S40M1 trigger)

+8 and showing strong bias in shoe

Go 1,2 progression till loss of progression

wLww = +4 on the run S40M1 using 1,2 progression

score = +12

THIS HAS NOT BEEN PLAYED THROUGH CHOOSING TRIGGERS AFTER I HAVE SEEN THE SHOE IT USES THE SAME SET UP TRIGGERS AND BETS FLAT BET WIN OR LOSS AND MOVES ON

IT IS PRETTY MECHANICAL 

IF STRONG BIAS (2 OR 3 CONSECUTIVE WINS ON SAME BIAS) THEN CAN GO ON THE RUN FLAT BET TO CAPITALISE ON LONG BIAS UNTIL 2 LOSSES

IF FAR AHEAD AND BIASES STILL STRONG / LONG CAN SWITCH TO 1,2 UP AS LOSE OR 1,2 LOOP TILL LOSE PROGRESSION TO FURTHER CAPITALISE.

STOP LOSS -5

 

 

[XDN]

Hi Brad...so are you using the last 2 events *mostly* ?

I remember one of your posts a while back that you were using 2 event triggers and from the shoe above it looks like that's what you're using. The first 2 "trigger events" you have

32 = OTBL

323 = OTBL

Question 1: I get the 32. But on the 323, is this a 3 event trigger or are you just using the 23 events?

Question 2: Dovetails with Q1, how often do you re-evaluate which system? For example....

212 = Current Trigger......

Next event is a 3 (2123)

Do you re-evaluate the system you are using on each event? In this example when we get that 3 event, the last 3 events are 123 which are a no go signal. Would you stop playing on this and see where the shoe goes?

 

Thanks again !! I used to play your 2 event triggers and I seem to remember doing ok for a new guy haha. But I just wanted to know if you are using 2 events, 3 events or a combination based on reading the shoe at hand.

[johnnycs1]

All the shoes shown in this thread and others, I have been applying a method that a friends , friend , has used for past few years and has won a ton of money.

I have not played it...but just quickly and simply looked at posted shoes , or glanced at the totes at my local casino 2 miles down the road from home....and it looks promising !  

A very simply method without having to use all the pre-requisites for all the systems on BTC dating all the way back years ago , that work sometimes and other times don't ! Mostly don't , IMHO..:) Or else IMHO , we would see a lot more people like the waytofast's and the Kevin's posting their success!!  Agree ? Or am I wrong ? I know if I was constantly a winner.......I would be ! And not constantly trying to come up with something that may work !  Because what we already have is not working for the masses!  

Speaking for myself.....I find all the one's posted here and on Ellis's new site........in the heat of the battle , at the table of chain smoking players , yelling monkey , monkey.......behind a few large units........hard to analyze whats going on and what I should do next !! :)......because of the distractions I mentioned ! :

If I do eventually play it and successful , I will share it here .  My friend seen coffee cans  that this guy had filled with cash winnings ! LOL ...He says that this guy was a little different.......why coffee cans...probably did not trust banks ??? LOL

 

 

 

[brad01]

Hi Xdot:

Triggers I am currently using:

Neutral (OTBL)

22 or 32 or 23

Opposite (S40)

1211 or 1111 or 2111

Repeat

42 or 24 or 33 or 34 or 43

Repeat (Strong Side)

213 or 313 or 312

S40M1 (TBL) - wait for a bunch of 2's or OTBL or repeat bias followed by:

113 or 4113 - Straights and ZZ runs with NO 2's

Answers to your questions

Mostly 2 events I use except for opposite events are short

What is better to measure is NUMBER OF PLAYS

An opposite bias trigger of 1211 is 5 plays long and 4 events

while a repeat trigger of 34 is only 2 events but 7 plays long

so generally 2 events but its not all the same

NUMBER OF PLAYS IS MORE ACCURATE 

But the exact trigger are there above to look at.

With the 323 trigger this was unique to the shoe that William posted because the biases were consistently long and strong so generally while I play short term with the aim of flat betting, winning or losing and moving on - if I see that the biases are long I'm not gonna just sit there and watch potential wins go by so if I get 1 win and then I monitor the events and they are still consistent then I could decide to go OTR to capitalise on the shoes that have long biases.

So the 323 was unique - usually I will use 23 or 32 as per above but IN THAT SHOE where the biases were all long then if the next event is still and OTBL event then I would go for another win and so on and if you win 3 in a row or 3 of 4 then go OTR till 2 losses as whos to say that bias isn't going to go all shoe.

But that's out of the ordinary stuff - the bread and butter is use the short term triggers to win or lose 1 unit and rely on the fact that NOR biases exist in the short term so you will be better than 50/50

In regards to re-evaluating I will go with the bias I'm on

sometimes there is crossover events like 2's and 3's cross between OTBL and repeat

if a shoe went 421 the 42 trigger would say repeat - BBBB PP - bet repeat now - BBBB PP B - lose

then I start from the 2 event and work forward and look for the next trigger - it could be opposite or it could be OTBL

Hope this helps

I'm still working with PBM but at the moment this is producing good results and goes hand in hand with MDB+ which is what I like - you play both together - when NOR is strong maybe MDB+ signals are failing and when NOR is failing maybe MDB+ is strong and sometimes they both win together.

The other thing I like is minimal charting required so easy on the brain.

recording biases and number of plays they last is good as you can see patterns there too;

EG

OTBL - 7 plays

S40 - 6 plays

TBL - 20 plays

 

 

[BigVic]

You could call it the coffee can method.

[brad01]

Hey Johnny,

Will be interested to see this method if works out

Just be careful as there is no HG system - not here, not on Ellis's site, not from a 'friends friend'

The HG system for you is what you make work for you - that's it

But all the same doesn't hurt to look around and try new things

For me at the moment last NOR and MDB+ is ok

 

[brad01]

Williams last shoe:

P2112111121111122241511

From the start

1121 = Opposites = win

11211(1) next event also win virtual

11211(1)(1) - that's 3 wins in a row 1 real and 2 virtual so that shows possible strong consistent bias so go OTR flat bet until 2 loss

wLwwwwwwLwLw

+7 on opposites

We are at 22 after a long opposite bias

Switch to OTBL - w

we are at 222 - 2 more virtual wins so go till 2 loss = LL

we are -1 on OTBL

24 = repeat = loss

415 = TBL (trigger at 413) = win

you could make the call and say S40M1 biases are often long when they come and especially a strong OTBL / repeat bias which has just happened

Ask Pando about this - I think he agrees

So if we go OTR until 2 losses

wLw

Opposites score = +7

OTBL score = -1

Repeat score = -1

TBL/ S40M1 score = +1

Total score flat betting = +6

[Pando]

1 hour ago, brad01 said:

Williams last shoe:

P2112111121111122241511

From the start

1121 = Opposites = win

11211(1) next event also win virtual

11211(1)(1) - that's 3 wins in a row 1 real and 2 virtual so that shows possible strong consistent bias so go OTR flat bet until 2 loss

wLwwwwwwLwLw

+7 on opposites

We are at 22 after a long opposite bias

Switch to OTBL - w

we are at 222 - 2 more virtual wins so go till 2 loss = LL

we are -1 on OTBL

24 = repeat = loss

415 = TBL (trigger at 413) = win

you could make the call and say S40M1 biases are often long when they come and especially a strong OTBL / repeat bias which has just happened

Ask Pando about this - I think he agrees

So if we go OTR until 2 losses

wLw

Opposites score = +7

OTBL score = -1

Repeat score = -1

TBL/ S40M1 score = +1

Total score flat betting = +6

Yes I agree about the S40M1 biases - they can easily be 10 or more especially if the early part of the shoe has already shown a streaky or choppy trend. I found that if I see a 4iar in shoe, there is more than 90% chance there will be another.

[johnnycs1]

4 hours ago, brad01 said:

Hey Johnny,

Will be interested to see this method if works out

Just be careful as there is no HG system - not here, not on Ellis's site, not from a 'friends friend'

The HG system for you is what you make work for you - that's it

But all the same doesn't hurt to look around and try new things

For me at the moment last NOR and MDB+ is ok

 

HI brad ,

Good words !

Talked to my friend in depth today over the phone about the method . He is the one that shared it with me and seen the coffee cans with the cash ! Like Vic said......The Coffee Can Method !!  ....

He told me they had a group of guys , some time back that use to get together over bac and go over Ellis methods that they all had bought . In fact thats how I met this guy . We realized that we were both playing the same Ellis method at the same table in Las Vegas . This was back in the 90's . Of course the method did not work . It was a simple method with a money back guarantee (sp?) from Ellis, if you sent the shoes played to him when asking for a refund. I did and Ellis sent me a refund, which impressed me.....cause I never thought I would hear back from him. So Tim and I remained friends thru the years over the phone and internet......Anyway...this group of guys was shown this "Coffee Can Method"..........many times whenever the guys got together for an Ellis methods brainstorming.........they played it , in practice ,  together , with shoes they all had played in the past and against Zumma , for what it's worth and the method was a winner ! I was at my local,today, 2 miles down the road casino here in Albuquerque....checked out the tote .......and it would have won easily ! So , like I mention before......I will be investigating.........and if it's promising , and I play it eventually and it wins.....I will be like Kevin and share it ! 

Hey Brad....Cruz pulled the upset ! It was a great fight !! B.J.Penn , showed up here in Albuquerque, unannounced, at Albuquerque's Jackson-Wink MMA Gym!! He is ending a 2 year retirement and train with Albuquerque's Greg Jackson and aim at winning a 3rd weight title !! How bout that !! He won UFC titles at 155 , 170 and now going for Feather Weight 145 pounds ! Tough Guy !

Also Albuquerque's Carlos Condit is mulling over the possibility of retirement after his loss to Robbie Lawler ! Also Holly Holm was inducted into the Hall Of Fame here locally !! What a great gal !! Sweet as Sugar ! She is going to fight a gal before the rematch with Rousey ! Which I think will be a little later in the year than July ! I will be at that rematch , Good Lord Willing !!

Thanks Everyone !!........johnny

Edited January 22, 2016 by johnnycs1

[brad01]

Cool Johnny will be interested if it works out for you and you post it.

Quite possible they did find a way to win if they have been practising hard many methods

Yes I didn't see Condit fight but I heard it could have gone his way.

Hes a good fighter

Yes I always like BJ Penn. He has so much natural ability and toughness but he just never put in the work t get fit enough.

Now we have a new breed of fighter - they are technical and strong and fit

I'm not sure he can adapt or hasn't been left behind but I hope he does well.

His last fight against Frankie Edgar was pretty a devastating loss

Yeah happy for Cruz - wanted him to win but I picked Dillashaw as Cruz was out for 4 years so didn't think he could pull it off

All the best

[Fedda]

15 hours ago, brad01 said:

Opposite (S40)

1211 or 1111 or 2111

Hi Brad! I really like your conservative approach and I think this is a winner.

A question regarding your triggers and how you approach them. In this example I use the S40 triggers, If you win first bet on opposite after 1211 do you continue to bet opposite since next trigger becomes 2111, and next after that is 1111?

[brad01]

Hi fred,

Thanks for the feedback.

I also think its a winner and especially if you play alongside MDB+ its even better

7 days of testing straight convinced me of that.

I have been thinking a lot about the triggers and I have them pretty much tweaked the way I think they work best

To answer your question about S40 or opposite trigger:

I have made the criteria for a trigger must be win / loss ratio 4:1

So in the case of S40 opposite it will be like follows:

1111 = wwww eg PBPBP - bet B for opposite

we can also have a single repeat in there being a 2:

11211 = wwLww - PBPPBPB = bet P

 

With a 4:1 win ratio in the trigger it means the last 4 of 5 events are wins meaning strong bias or better than 50/50 chance that the next bet will be the same

THE ONLY WAY THIS WILL NOT WORK IS IF EVERY TIME YOU BET AFTER THE TRIGGER THE BIAS CHANGES ON THE NEXT BET

THERES NO GUARANTEE IT WONT BUT FOR IT TO HAPPEN CONTINUOUSLY I BELIEVE IT WILL BE HIGHLY UNLIKELY

IF IT DOES THEN ITS BAD LUCK AND THATS WHAT STOP LOSSES AND VIRTUAL BETS ARE FOR TO TRY AND AVOID OR MINIMISE THOSE FEW TIMES IN A SUCCESSFUL APPROACH THAT THINGS GO AGAINST YOU MORE THAN YOU EXPECT

To demonstrate another trigger following the same concept of 4: win / loss ratio:

OTBL trigger:

22 = wwww = PPBBP = bet P next bet

Repeat trigger;

33 = wwLww = PPPBBB = bet B next bet

To start with I just go for 1 win after every trigger.

Its painful to get your 1 win and see the bias go on for another 10 wins BUT I'm very mindful of human nature to turn a simple winning system into a complex system that's no better or loses so I'm keeping it simple for now and once I'm happy with ways to maximise on long trigger I will post the results

The concept of this approach is when a shoe is spitting out opposite results and you bet opposite for 1 bet you should have better than 50 / 50 and so on for all biases

The only way this can fail is EVERY TIME A SHOE IS HIGHLY BIASED A CERTAIN WAY AND YOU BET WITH THE BIAS IT TURNS ON YOU ON THE VERY NEXT RESULT EVERY TIME AND I'M HOPING THATS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. I BELIEVE IT IS

[Action Mike]

Brad,

  This method is very interesting.  Things like this are why this community exists.  There is always something to be learned from another player.  The key to any million dollar system is just winning consistently with increasing unit sizes.

[brad01]

totally agree

the secret to winning is coming to terms with how simple and repetitive it is.

As Kevin said anyone could make any bet selection strategy work for them but how to employ your BR and MM is WAY more important

As way2fast said the secret to winning is not concentrating on winning but on reducing losses.

 

[William Looi]

Brad01, you try this one

[bryfromtheharbor]

I made up a score sheet for practice games with Brad01's "Keep it Simple"  short term bias triggers off to the side and W2F rules on the bottom.

As I become more proficient I'll need the reminders less often.  I hope

scorecard.docx

[brad01]

12121 - THIS IS A NEW TRIGGER I AM GOING TO ADD FOR OTBL AS ITS VERY COMMON BUT INITIALLY I WAS THINKING WHETHER IT SHOULD BE STRONG SIDE BUT NOW I THINK MORE OTBL

W/L = WWLWW - SEE HOW THE RATIO OF W/L IS 4:1 MEANING THE SHOE IS SPITTING OUT OTBL RESULTS - WE ONLY NEED IT TO SPIT OUT 1 MORE FOR A WIN

12121 = TRIGGER

12122 = WIN

WAIT FOR NEXT BIAS AND AT SAME TIME MONITOR EXISITNG OTBL BIAS TO SEE IF IT IS STRONG

1212212 = WWLWWWLW - STRONG BIAS - FLAT BET OTBL UNTIL 2 LOSSES

121221222311 = (WWLWW) W (LW)WWWWWWLWLL - +5 OTBL

3113 - I COULD LOOK AT S40M1 HERE AS THERES 2 X 3IAR AND A 4 ZZ AFTER A LONG OTBL RUN BUT 3'S ONLY BREAK EVEN FOR OTBL SO NOT SURE IF I WOULD TAKE IT. IM PRETTY CAREFUL TAKING S40M1 AS PARANOID ABOUT 2'S AND IF ONLY 3'S THEN BREAK EVENS NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME. 3'S ARE STILL OTBL BIAS

32 = OTBL = WIN

MONITOR OTBL AND LOOK FOR NEW BIAS

32213 = W(WWLW) - TAKE OTBL UNTIL 2 LOSSES AS RETURNED TO EXISTING BIAS

3221327 = W(WWLW)LWWWWLL = +2

24 = REPEAT BIAS = W

MONITOR EXISTING BIAS AND LOOK FOR NEW

27 = W(WW) - GO REPEAT BIAS UNTIL 2 LOSSES

332 = LWWLWWLW = +3 REPEAT

TOTAL SCORE FLAT BETTING IS +11

THESE ARE STRONG BIASES AND SHOULD BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF

STSRT OUT FLAT BETTING FOR 1 WIN

WHEN YOU THINK YOU CAN PICK A STRONG BIAS GO OTR UNTIL 2 LOSSES

THIS IS HOW I PLAYED ON THE WEEKEND FOR +20

ALSO MDB+ BUT MORE SHORT TERM NOR THAN MDB+

MANY TIMES MDB+ CONFLICTED WITH NOR AND SO I DIDNT PLAY IT BUT I RECORDED WHAT WON AND SHORT TERM NOR WON MORE THAN MDB+

[brad01]

Bryfromtheharbour

Good to make up a scoresheet with MDB+ triggers and NOR triggers at the start

After a while they will come naturally to you.

Don't be scared to shorten or lengthen the triggers a little if you think it will work better for you. Just minor trials and tweaks.

Sometimes I actually don't record anything as I know the triggers off by heart and a quick scan of the shoe reminds me of the history

Its also good to let a few signals come before betting for real and see if they would win.

That way you can know if to adjust your triggers or your betting strategy a little or if you cant see a way to make it work then don't play that shoe till you do.

On the weekend I won 20 + units and averaged 2 units per shoe - the ones I entered half way sometimes just 1 unit and I spent a lot of time going over triggers and finding reasons why not to take them.

The ones I took had a high hit rate.

This is what I'm finding its better to wait 10 - 20 hands and take 1 bet that you pretty much know will hit rather than a couple of wins and couple of losses and be going no where.

Then some shoes like the one William just posted has such a strong bias you have to take advantage of it.

[William Looi]

Good to hear that you have won 20 units . I have learn not to bulldozer though the shoes , but only take the high possibility one, or hit and run.

this shoe I manage to get 5 units

[avion]

Congrats William on your +5 units.

[Wendel]

On 1/23/2016 at 9:28 AM, Pompano Mike said:

14 hours ago, brad01 said:

 

On the weekend I won 20 + units and averaged 2 units per shoe - the ones I entered half way sometimes just 1 unit and I spent a lot of time going over triggers and finding reasons why not to take them.

The ones I took had a high hit rate.

 

HI Brad,

I won 20 units on Friday afternoon , averaging 10 units per shoe, playing standard NOR.

Took the rest of the weekend of to watch curling..

Wendel

 

 

[brad01]

Thats cool glad its working for you.

I could never feel I was getting ahead playing like that

+20 one shoe and then loss after loss

I might revisit it one day

[wolfat]

On 21 gennaio 2016 at 11:16 PM, brad01 said:

Brad,  regarding your triggers I need to clarify this:

I think that the triggers regarding OTBL plays must be "confirmed" before betting, instead those regarding opposites or repeats need an on the run betting. correct?

thank you for answer and for sharing your work.

A

 

 

 

 

On 21 gennaio 2016 at 11:16 PM, brad01 said:

Triggers I am currently using:

Neutral (OTBL)

22 or 32 or 23

Opposite (S40)

1211 or 1111 or 2111

Repeat

42 or 24 or 33 or 34 or 43

Repeat (Strong Side)

213 or 313 or 312

S40M1 (TBL) - wait for a bunch of 2's or OTBL or repeat bias followed by:

113 or 4113 - Straights and ZZ runs with NO 2's

Answers to your questions

Mostly 2 events I use except for opposite events are short

What is better to measure is NUMBER OF PLAYS

An opposite bias trigger of 1211 is 5 plays long and 4 events

while a repeat trigger of 34 is only 2 events but 7 plays long

so generally 2 events but its not all the same

NUMBER OF PLAYS IS MORE ACCURATE 

But the exact trigger are there above to look at.