How to use NOR the right way and win most of the shoes

[avion]

Interesting point wolfat, which creates a question for me.  Without the "confirmation" is that considered "betting in the blind" ?  

[Wendel]

is   a  three 111's  in a row (111) 3 events or 1 event  ?

 

[avion]

my understanding of that Wendel, it would be, if that 3rd 1 is truly a 1, and confirmed by the next hand as a 1.  If that 3rd one, isn't confirmed, it can turn in a 2,3, 4, etc, until it is also confirmed.

[Wendel]

22 minutes ago, avion said:

my understanding of that Wendel, it would be, if that 3rd 1 is truly a 1, and confirmed by the next hand as a 1.  If that 3rd one, isn't confirmed, it can turn in a 2,3, 4, etc, until it is also confirmed.

I understand what you are saying and agree, but I could have worded my question better

so I will try again to clarify what we are saying

a 313 is three events 

a 3113 is three events 

it doesn't really matter what the bookends are  long as they are confirmed. and  they can be anything but ones

a 311 is confirmed 3 and the 11 is part of an unconfirmed event

Edited January 27, 2016 by Wendel

[trillion]

1 hour ago, Wendel said:

I understand what you are saying and agree, but I could have worded my question better

so I will try again to clarify what we are saying

a 313 is three events 

a 3113 is three events 

it doesn't really matter what the bookends are  long as they are confirmed. and  they can be anything but ones

a 311 is confirmed 3 and the 11 is part of an unconfirmed event

Wendel, I would look @ a 3113 as 4 events since the two ones are switching from side to side or switching from player to banker.

Brad please let everyone know about how to interpret these events and the number of events.

[avion]

yes Wendel, no problem, and it is not my intent to be critical, as I was sincerely and respectfully wanting to understand.  Thank you for the clarity.  Good job my friend. 

[Wendel]

57 minutes ago, trillion said:

Wendel, I would look @ a 3113 as 4 events since the two ones are switching from side to side or switching from player to banker.

Brad please let everyone know about how to interpret these events and the number of events.

Thanks trillion,

I only mentioned it because I think in a MDB+ context ,

the 1 in 313 is part of a 3zz event

the 11 in 3113 is part of a 4zz event 

we can certainly look at the 1's as events in Brad's context.

[brad01]

Hi guys well the title 'last 3 events method' is probably confusing now as its not exactly that or always that anymore

Initially when I started this I intended to make short term triggers based on last 3 events to capitalise on short term biases due to biases changing many times throughout a shoe

An event is exactly that - 1's, 2's. 3's, 4's or any number

I don't define it any differently.

The thing about it is you have opposite bias where 3 events is not much as the events are only 1's - 211 or 111 - not even enough for a trigger (4 plays)

and then you have repeat bias where you have a 43 which is only 2 events but is enough to for a trigger and is 7 plays

It might be wise to change the name to 'SHORT TERM NOR' or something but last 3 events is valid as an average across all trigger of 3 events average

Hope that clears it up and doesn't confuse people on the 3 part of it

I have been doing a lot of testing and thinking and I have defined a trigger as:

Any series of events that produces 3 WINS IN A ROW OR 4 OF 5

THATS 80 - 100% W/L RATIO

EG

OPPOSITE

2111 = LWWW

OTBL

32 = WLWWW

REPEAT

24 = WLWWW

SS

213 = WLWWW

S40M1 / TBL

HARDER TO DEFINE BECAUSE YOU COULD ALSO DEFINE THE OPPOSITE SECTION AND REPEAT SECTION SEPARATELY BUT

AFTER A BIAS OF REPEAT OR OTBL - 3 CONSECUTIVE EVENTS OF 3 OR MORE WITH 2 OF THOSE EVENTS BEING GREATER THAN 3

EG

2232111311 - WE HAVE A OTBL BIAS AND THEN ZZ=5, 3IAR, ZZ OF 4 OR MORE

ALTERNATIVELY WE COULD HAVE

22324113 - OTBL SECTION FOLLOWED BY 4IAR, 4ZZ, 3IAR

ALL SETUPS ARE FOR SHORT TERM WINS - 1 UNIT UNLESS YOU SEE FIT TO GO MORE

YOU CAN GET A DECENT HIT RATE BY PLAYING THE FIRST BET AFTER THE TRIGGER BUT I HAVE BEEN WORKING ON RECORDING THE W/L RATIO FOR EACH TRIGGER AS IT COMES SO YOU CAN DECIDE WHERE TO JUMP IN AS THE FIRST BET AFTER THE TRIGGERS IS NOT ALWAYS GOING TO BE GOOD

ALSO RECORDING THE LENGTH OF THE BIASES IS VERY BENEFICIAL AS IT DOES FOLLO PATTERNS AND YOU CAN PICK SOME SHOES GO FROM LONG BIAS TO SHORT AND THEN BACK TO LONG AND IF YOU CAN JUMP ON THOSE LONG BIASES UNTIL SHORT TERM WIN OR 2 LOSSES THEN YOU CAN CLEAN UP

ALSO 2 SHORT BIASES USUALLY MEANS A LONGER ONE IS COMING

I WILL POST PLAYS BUT IM REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS

ALL BETS ARE FLAT BET UNLESS YOU SEE FIT FOR 1,2 LOOP OR UP AS WIN / UP AS LOSE TO GET THRU A BUMP OR SUPERCHARGE YOUR WINS.

IF GO OTR FLAT BET UNTIL 2 LOSSES.

EG

2111322111243

2111

S40 - LWWWWLL = 5 PLAYS (5 PLAYS UNTIL THE 2 LOSSES)

32

OTBL - WLWWWWWLL = 7 PLAYS

24

REPEAT = WLWWWLWW = 8 PLAYS AND COUNTING

SHORT BIAS I FOUND TO BE 5 - 8 PLAYS

MEDIUM UP TO 12 PLAYS

LONG BIAS LONGER THAN 12 PLAYS

FURTHER TO THAT BECASUE WE ARE RECORDING EVENTS ITS EASY TO SEE IF THE SHOE IS BETTER FOR SAP BETS (ALL 3'S STAY 3 AND GO NO MORE)

OR

MDB+ (DIFFERENT EVENTS MIXED IN)

YOU CAN PLAY ALL 3 AT ONCE

ALL SHOES HAVE TO BE VULNERABLE TO AT LEAST 1 OF THE ABOVE IF NOT 2 OR ALL

I DONT SEE IT ANY OTHER WAY 

[brad01]

P11313511111322211221211111213132

ZZ's: 3272224237332

Multiples: 12421112

NOR Short Term Setups with first and second hit after trigger in brackets:

S40M1 (go till 3 losses flat bet) - WLWLWLW(L)(L)WWWLWWWWWLWLLL = 20 Plays

SS - WWLW(W)(W)LL = 6 Plays

R -  WWLW(W)(W)WLL = 7 Plays

S40 - WWW(W)(W)LL - 5 Plays

OTBL - WLWW(W)(W)WWWLL - 9 Plays

S40 - LWWW(L)(W)LWWLWWWWWWLWLL - 18 Plays

OTBL - WWW(W)(L)WWLL - 7 Plays

SS - WLWW(W)(L)WWWLL - 9 Plays

(All biases apart from S40M1 go till 2 losses flat bet)

(triggers are determined by any pattern which creates 3 wins in a row or 3 of 4 - try them and you will work them out)

(first and second wins after triggers are valuable to help you know where to jump in)

(length of bias is important to try and work out when to get out or when to go OTR)

 

Apart from short term NOR its good to be able to determine if a shoe is more 'MDB+ friendly' or 'SAP friendly'

This shoe I feel is more 'SAP friendly'

 

MDB+ bets I made:

after 4 multiples - bet next 1 stays 1

That also coincided with OTBL bias which I expected to tank as it had 6 wins straight so it was a double signal

That's the only MDB+ bet I made

 

SAP bets

3's will stay 3 - theres was no 4's and only 1 x 5 and it became very clear to me that 3's were going to stay 3 throughout

after the 7 x 2's I was sure the shoe would produce at least 1 more event greater than 2 before the end - and it produced another 2 x 3iars

4ZZ - usually always see consistency between 3ZZ and 4ZZ - way2fast said this was one of his strongest triggers and I'm beginning to see that - I bet the 4ZZ would stay 4ZZ producing 1 for the shoe.

 

Apart form the short term NOR setups I try and look if the shoe is better for SAP bets or for MDB+ bets or 50/50

The best description I could say to describe it is

MDB+ is 'chaos' - McVince used that term and its a good choice - you don't see any consistency in lengths

SAP - is ''tuned length' - everything seems to be tuned and theres minimal 'chaos'

Another way of thinking about it is I think of MDB+ as an unpruned hedge or uncut grass with weeds

SAP is like a landscaped garden or a pruned hedge

Start looking at shoes like that if you don't see it and you should

Of course all these things are short term and can tank or will tank eventually and at any time so minimum target is 1 unit unless you see reason for more.

[Keith Smith]

Should have played it as 2.2.1 We should be looking more at up as you win and 2.2.1 Approach.

 

 

[brad01]

Sure thing Keith I will be getting into stats for profits very soon

A little behind with technology.

I agree up as you win is very effective

There are pros that only play up as you win and never a negative progression.

 

[William Looi]

Yesterday and today I have lost 40 units , sad very sad. not working ,

[BigVic]

5 hours ago, William Looi said:

Yesterday and today I have lost 40 units , sad very sad. not working ,

Sorry to hear that... -40 units playing NOR or something else?

[brad01]

Every bet should have a win goal and a stop loss - if you see an opportunity you will either be right or wrong and you cant keep chasing something that doesn't go your way. At the same time even if you are right you cannot keep betting the same and expect the bias to last without having a win goal

Minimum stop loss on a bet is 1 unit. Minimum stop win on a bet is 1 unit - this can go up or down as you see fit

Every session has a stop loss and a stop win the same as above

Every day can be made of multiple sessions which also has a stop loss and stop win like above

And so on

If you are losing then you can use virtual bets before you hit your stop loss to avoid a streak of losses that do come from time to time

Only bet for real after you get a paper win

If you get a paper win and then lose twice like that then wait until 2 paper wins before betting for real

If that doesn't work you will probably nearly be at your stop loss anyway

If you lose a session clear your mind of the loss and of the shoe. Only resume if you have cleared your mind and can return fresh

Casinos make their money from players who increase their bets to cover their losses.

Seriously William how did you lose 40 units in a day?

For me that's 10 losing sessions in a row

I expect to lose 1 in 5 hopefully less

If I lost 2 in a day that would be day over for me

I don't think you had control.

No matter what bet selection you use there will be rough streaks

That's why bet selection is only a small part of staying ahead

And another thing - did you record your losing shoes and can you work out why you went wrong and how?  .

If you did then post them - I'm happy to give my opinion and sure others will too.

[brad01]

William many times I will play in virtual mode if my w/L ratio is not 50% or better

I always record my w/L ratio on my score sheet

if it goes:

wLwL I will play

if it goes wwLwL that's good

as soon as it goes LLL or LLwL I stop until I get back to wLwL or better which is 50% or better

so sometimes I will be in virtual mode for longer than I play - actually quite often

frustrating at first and hard to be patient but when you learn that you are reducing your losses then you understand that its actually saving you losses and a potential long losing streak

This is what wolfat said about riding the waves of luck except he does it with reduced bets rather than paper wins but for me I believe I can make paper wins count ok.

Also this is similar I feel to what way2fast does when he says he often spends more time observing than playing - what he is doing is working out the tables and how his luck is related to the bets in his mind on any given day

In that way I believe he is doing the same thing as what I do but in his mind

Only in his mind when he sees that MDB+ bets or whatever are hitting at a decent rate will he play

In that way he is reducing losses and a potential losing streak.

 

 

 

[Wendel]

11 hours ago, William Looi said:

Yesterday and today I have lost 40 units , sad very sad. not working ,

 

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by Wendel
posted in error

[William Looi]

It is my mistake I try to chase my loses .I should not chase my loses with higher bets.  You are right Brad 01, I should do paper bet first if it is good than I go in, if it is not good than be patient and wait, thanks Brad01.

[William Looi]

5 hours ago, BigVic said:

Sorry to hear that... -40 units playing NOR or something else?

it is my mistake for chasing loses, I have learn a lesson

[brad01]

Yes we have all done it.

I used to play progressions and then decided to reduce back to 1,2,3 and then back to flat bet / 1,2

Whenever I got into trouble I always found myself raising to a 3 bet even though I had decided I wasn't going to.

It took me a while to get the discipline to stick to a flat bet or 1,2 and now I can say I have that discipline - I never place anything more than a 2 bet and many times flat bet

That's not to say you have to play like that you can play a progression and have a stop loss but chasing your losses is the point - not to do it

Like I said progressions are like a credit card - get something for nothing now and pay it back with interest at a later stage - And your payment period just came in William!

Also like a martingale - the system that can win over 99% of the time but you still lose!!

 

[Keith Smith]

Do you have your shoes I'd be interested in seeing your bets?

[William Looi]

11 minutes ago, Keith Smith said:

Do you have your shoes I'd be interested in seeing your bets?

I will record down all my shoes in future. For study and correction . I believe it will help others also.

[William Looi]

Today  shoe   P13131131132171211   it is low 2s  SAP 1s 11, 2s  4, 3s  16  , 4s  4   so this shoe is low in 2s,  I use TB4L flat bet  and win  3 unites

 

[William Looi]

The next shoe I encounter is  P 1235112116    SAP  1s= 5, 2s= 4, 3s=4 ,4s=8,  This shoe is random So i apply MDB ++ rule  number 1  and get  1 unite

[brad01]

good that you go back to basic but I believe any sho

e can win at bias and MDB+ at same time because every shoe have both just not always lots of both at same time

Many short term nor wins in second one

look at my scoresheets on last 3 events played tonight

easy money

 

[William Looi]

Today this shoe at hand 26th  P311422621121    SAP=  1=5, 2=8, 3=4,   4=8,    not so bias and not so random  i choose to use MDB  use rule number 3 only put aside rule number 1,  because 2s is high  and 3s is lowest.    I get  one unite with this one