Are casinos really creating the biases...

[BacPlayer]

Going through lots of posts in the site..

There is a strong feeling that casinos are creating the biases but the type of shuffle used manual vs continous shuffle machines etc.

I am not very convinced that they can manipulate such things accurately for 8 card shoe.

What if an additional card is burned. the entire biases shifts from player to banker or vice versa.

How will they know if its a 2 card hand or a 3 card hard.

My question is how can they manipulate the first n hands to be steaky and the next few hands to be ZZ/TT or choppy.

Isn't it just a random event.

 

[Pando]

I have wondered about this too, and have asked questions about cutting the deck for the same reasons

There is no doubt that some shoes are biased, and some are not.

What I do see from my records is that there is often a similarity in the shoe type on any particular day

Whether this is deliberate or accidental is still up for debate

But whatever the reason, its still essential to follow the shoe (pattern, trend)

 

[avion]

Excellent question BacPlayer.  I have honestly not yet charted or played a factory shuffled shoe. There are many factory, machine and hand shuffled shoes on "stats for profit" which is a good tool to use on here.  I have only played machine shuffled and hand shuffled.  I can say regarding a hand shuffled shoe, that when there was a very streaky shoe, they would shuffle the shoe more times than they did previously to possibly "break up" the streaks.  Each time I observed that happening, the next shoe was very choppy.  I have seen that happen enough times to put it past the consideration of "it just happens".  Then again, it can be viewed that after a streaky shoe, you will get a choppy shoe to balance out.  But the one determining factor I have seen in the hand shuffled shoe, is the number of times more it is shuffled after a streaky shoe.  I am in no way an expert on this subject, and I am going purely by what I have observed in this regard, and not by just one or two shoes that happened that way.  

However, I do agree with Pando, in the importance of being able to read a shoe and see it as clearly as possible, no matter what type shuffle the shoe is.  

[ECD]

I don't know for sure myself. I do know this though, that the vast majority of shoes can be beaten and almost every shoe provides an easy to read bias at some stage in the shoe.

Mechanical systems don't cut it nowadays...you have to learn to follow/read the shoe and adapt your play accordingly.

Even at this stage...I am still learning and indeed, picked up a few ideas from CT...Pando...Way2Fast and Brad in the "How the cards fall" thread. I was thinking "Really?...Why didn't I pick up on that"?...For God's sake...I've played thousands of shoes and can still miss what should have been obvious...Sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees. 

That's the way it works. You never stop learning. 

Edited August 19, 2016 by ECD

[brad01]

I have been thinking of creating a 'reference shoe' where we shuffle it as random as we can and then record the card order / outcome

Then we could use this card order / known outcome as a reference deck and we could chart the effects of various factors;

 

Cutting the deck at different points.

Burning cards at the start

Burning cards every hand

Different types of hand shuffle from the reference deck starting point

Machine shuffle? probably not possible unless someone can buy or steal a shuffle machine.

 

I really think its in our best interests to know the outcomes of all of these and what sort of effect they will have.

This will tell us what effect casino card manipulation will have on the game

 

This would not be a terribly hard thing to do just quite time consuming

 

The fact is this question has come up many times in the past and Ellis (when he was here) used to preach casino card manipulation was rampant.

But from the posts above it appears none of us really knows the effects of the above card factors and how much effect they have on the outcome of the shoe and we really should.

 

 

 

[Keith Smith]

On the topic are the card s biased here is the unedited first thoughts as I am rewriting the MDB+ manual.

Again if there are grammatical errors I aplologize and I am working on clarity and word smithing

 

I thought relevant to this conversation

 

If we analyze the game, it is fairly close to a 50/50 proposition.  You pick Banker or Player.  I know Banker has a slight edge due to the card play rules but all in all it is close. If you want to read all about it simply Google Baccarat Banker advantage or visit us at BeatTheCasino.com. For our purposes insignificant.

As I watch players who ultimately lose by pattern betting they lose because they believe whatever pattern they see in a game will endlessly continue.  This will only occur with increasing predictable frequency if there is an assignable cause for this to occur, that is a process error in the card preparation or game that makes it occur. Unfortunately, some players actually think that Baccarat is affected by some supernatural power.  This is the quickest way to lose.  The psychology of a superstitious gambler and the need to believe in things beyond the realm of reality and magical thinking makes the casinos extremely profitable.  I enjoy turning over the cards in Baccarat as much as the next person and at times on a strategic bet, but needless to say no matter what I do or believe the cards will never change.  The social aspect and comradery adds to excitement of the game.

To further expand on the pattern betting, the “rub” as we say with random cards is that the same event can occur with random cards, but you will generally will not see it within  complex events time after time.  If you only see it once you are not certain if it is random or it is a non-random event. If you continue to see it hand after hand, game after game, you may have identified a non-random condition and this is extremely exploitable. However you must be careful as shorter events that we will explain later happen with a frequency,  by the very nature of them, may seem nonrandom and predictable. Most players believe this in every game of Baccarat and this is the players’ flaw.  What they are seeing is a non -pattern and they believe it to be a pattern.  Remember you will be right half the time by guessing. The most prolific example of this where card prepped cause non randomness was in multiple deck games of Blackjack that were hand shuffled.  You would consistently see low cards following low cards more than they statistically should and high cards following high card more than they statistically should.  Again not just once in one game but every Blackjack game that you would see.  You can read all about this in our publication Blackjack 101 by BeatTheCasino.com.

Baccarat players fall victim to human nature that wants to identify patterns in everything.  Realize that with the exception of a tie in Baccarat you can only have two things happen, a Banker can win the hand or a Player.  At BeatTheCasino.com we also not only look at the game from this approach but we assign events to when this occurs.  An important concept to understand is what an event?  An Event is one or more sequences of Banker or Player wins defined as opposites or as repeats but must be preceded by another Banker or Player win. This sounds a bit confusing and it is very clear once you see an example. Furthermore, you will see why it must be preceded by another hand of play. While we know what side wins the first hand of a shoe, we do not know what preceded it so we eliminate it as an event because it does not meet the two component criteria of being preceded by a hand. Know that an event must have two components to it to be categorized an event. Let’ look at the definitions and examples of this

[Pando]

19 hours ago, brad01 said:

I have been thinking of creating a 'reference shoe' where we shuffle it as random as we can and then record the card order / outcome

Then we could use this card order / known outcome as a reference deck and we could chart the effects of various factors;

 

Cutting the deck at different points.

Burning cards at the start

Burning cards every hand

Different types of hand shuffle from the reference deck starting point

Machine shuffle? probably not possible unless someone can buy or steal a shuffle machine.

 

I really think its in our best interests to know the outcomes of all of these and what sort of effect they will have.

This will tell us what effect casino card manipulation will have on the game

 

This would not be a terribly hard thing to do just quite time consuming

 

The fact is this question has come up many times in the past and Ellis (when he was here) used to preach casino card manipulation was rampant.

But from the posts above it appears none of us really knows the effects of the above card factors and how much effect they have on the outcome of the shoe and we really should.

 

 

 

That's a great idea Brad

I tried a similar thing for myself on the kitchen table but it was only one deck and inconclusive as you would expect

[ECD]

Honestly...I think we spend waaaay too much time worrying about this shit when it doesn't matter all that much.

Which part of "Learn to read the damn shoe" don't people understand? 

I've played countless hand shuffled...machine shuffled and new manufacturer provided cards and it makes sweet stuff all difference to my long term  PA (Player advantage)

Sure, the bias will vary within the shoe and from shoe to shoe and from day to day but the fact remains (and read my lips)..."The majority of shoes are still beatable."  

Like I said before...if you play enough shoes, you will come across shoes that blind Freddy would smash.  

Here's a shoe that popped up out of nowhere (I was having a tough start to my day)...YEAH...it happens.

B4542733(11)511

 

This shoe was such a gimme that I switched to UAW and hit the Table Limit. As I cashed out, the Pit Boss suggested that as my luck was running hot, that I should ride my luck...to which I replied "Do I really look that stupid?" (probably not all that smart given that I like to fly under the radar as much as possible...LOL)...I live in hope...those days are long gone.

 

The point is that these type of shoes with a piss easy to pick bias, still turn up, and if I hadn't continued playing despite my tough start to the day...I would have missed this golden opportunity.

 

BTW: Any member who doesn't smash this shoe should either stick to Bingo or find something else to do nights.

 

Back to the topic (sorta)...Despite me saying that I don't give two cockneys what type of shuffle casinos dish up...I get really pissed off with short shoes. It happens a lot with Live Dealer Online shoes. There is a Live Dealer Casino that I used to frequent that had a Table Limit of 5K Euros and 6 Tables to choose from, but they (over a period of time) shortened their shoes to 35 to 45 hands on average (not counting ties)  Not much use to me as I like to see a minimum of four completed events before I start playing. (and it could be several more events depending on how dominant the bias ) That could mean that I don't enter the shoe until as many as 20 or more hands are dealt. Given that there might be as few as 15 to 25 hands left in the shoe that leaves bugger all recovery time if the shit hits the fan and stuff all time for that "sweet spot" in the shoe to eventuate. 

 

Oops...I've gone off topic a bit, but the point is...don't get yourself all tied up in knots worrying about the types of shuffle...concentrate on getting your act together and in the words of Norm Allen..."Follow the shoe".

 

OK...got that off my chest...better go find my meds...LOL

[brad01]

U should have switched to a 345 ?? !!

haaa!

[ECD]

58 minutes ago, brad01 said:

U should have switched to a 345 ?? !!

haaa!

 

 

Is that you Ellis?...Stop hacking  Brad's A/c

Edited August 21, 2016 by ECD

[brad01]

Hahaha you gotta have some fun with this game!

But seriously -  follow the shoe

Those 3 words are Norm's legacy

Yes we need to stop going round in circles and just do that

Here's a Kerry Packer / Crown Casino special from today:

B421132323112312171111325131243

 

 

[XDN]

That's the kind of shoe I've been getting lately at 5 dimes and I can't follow them, it's been discouraging. I wish I knew how to read the shoes like you guys and Norm. It seems like the biases are so short. Mdb doesn't appear to be any good. I see the 211 and 311, you'd think it's going s40 but then back to 2s and 3s. Oh well, keep plugging ant keep trying to learn :-)

Edited August 21, 2016 by XDotNet

[brad01]

Hey Xdot I saw you log onto 5 dimes / VIG feed the other day

These shoes are preshuffled and then auto shuffled so I'm very cautious about them

5 dimes are hand shuffled but nothing to say they cant be similar.

If you take out several sporadic events its really an OTBL bias with a TBL section in there

The sporadic events are what throw you off seeing what's really there.

I came in where the 217 is and actually picked the SS banker right and rode it out till the end

After that I went for SS once more and lost and then decided to try for TBL section which I got correct

So I finished +5 playing pretty cautiously but probing bets, predicting changes, locking in profits, and if you aren't sure don't bet and sit back a hand were the key

One thing I noticed was what CT70 said - many times you will be the only player on the table making the bets you are - everyone else will be against you

 About the 211, 311, remember when nothing appears to be working OTBL is usually the most robust strategy

 

[ECD]

14 hours ago, brad01 said:

U should have switched to a 345 ?? !!

haaa!

Or better yet, a 678.  Win more with less risk!  Lol. 

 

Or just wait until after you see the whole shoe results before deciding how to play starting at hand 2.  Now THAT's the way to beat this game!  (We need a sarcasm font on this board). 

Edited August 21, 2016 by ECD

[ECD]

2 hours ago, way2fast said:

Or better yet, a 678.  Win more with less risk!  Lol. 

 

Or just wait until after you see the whole shoe results before deciding how to play starting at hand 2.  Now THAT's the way to beat this game!  (We need a sarcasm font on this board). 

 

LOL...6 7 8..." YIKES!" 

Hmm...near perfect Repeat shoe...6 7 8 progression...enter the shoe at hand 17 with a 6 bet...I'm assuming a negative progression?...This must be one of then thar BS Negative Progressions (The negative Progression that you play when you are not actually playing a negative progression)  Let me think this through...

I have to head off now, but I'll give you the actual figures later...

 

[ECD]

1 hour ago, ozscouser1 said:

LOL...6 7 8..." YIKES!" 

Hmm...near perfect Repeat shoe...6 7 8 progression...enter the shoe at hand 17 with a 6 bet...I'm assuming a negative progression?...This must be one of then thar BS Negative Progressions (The negative Progression that you play when you are not actually playing a negative progression)  Let me think this through...

I have to head off now, but I'll give you the actual figures later...

 

Amazing as it seems, there are some who are touting a 678 negative progression as the best way to play.  I have a fair amount of experience playing baccarat in actual casinos for actual money at a variety of unit sizes.  I think many of those who believe this crap about 678 do not have that real experience, or they have become too acostomed to deciding how to play a shoe after the fact, instead of how the real pros play them, one hand at a time.  In The REAL WORLD, there is not a professional player who would jump to a new bet level that is 6x what he has been wagering.  And if their approach is to really start with the same amount of money for the first bet, but call it 6 units, then they are essentially just flat betting (yes, a BS Negative Progression!), which is a fine way to play, but certainly not some fucking winning breakthrough idea or much of a  secret.

Oz, can't wait to hear how you would have done if you played the perfect system at the best possible unit progression for that shoe!  

Edited August 21, 2016 by ECD

[brad01]

A 6,7,8

Now someone has hacked way2fasts account!

This is getting out of control

[XDN]

14 hours ago, brad01 said:

Hey Xdot I saw you log onto 5 dimes / VIG feed the other day

These shoes are preshuffled and then auto shuffled so I'm very cautious about them

5 dimes are hand shuffled but nothing to say they cant be similar.

If you take out several sporadic events its really an OTBL bias with a TBL section in there

The sporadic events are what throw you off seeing what's really there.

I came in where the 217 is and actually picked the SS banker right and rode it out till the end

After that I went for SS once more and lost and then decided to try for TBL section which I got correct

So I finished +5 playing pretty cautiously but probing bets, predicting changes, locking in profits, and if you aren't sure don't bet and sit back a hand were the key

One thing I noticed was what CT70 said - many times you will be the only player on the table making the bets you are - everyone else will be against you

 About the 211, 311, remember when nothing appears to be working OTBL is usually the most robust strategy

 

Hey brad...with all my focus on bet selection systems, I needed to re-focus on the basics. Played 5dimes today and got one of those shoes with 2's, 3's and 4's (few 1's and no 6+s) that have been killing me. So I played "everything but the 5's" OTBLM3 and went +5 on the shoe. I'm  happy to say this is the first time in a long time i've played a shoe like this in the positive. Thanks for the OTBL reminder.

Played another shoe that started out with 3's, 4's and 5's so I started playing 221 repeats. Closed out 3 frames when the shoe switched to S40M3. Made up the last couple of 221 bets and went +15 on the whole shoe (+10 221 repeats, +5 S40M3)

Since i'm just a year in, and still just breaking even playing, I consider myself a junior level player now. I've been so focused on the more advanced bet selections that I forgot to mind the basics first. Good lesson for a junior/mid level player I think.

So...lesson for the day...

1. Read the shoe duhhhhhhhh (joking a bit because Oz/Way2/Avion/Brad/Pando etc.. have been saying this over and over and over and over).

2. Master the basics as the foundation for the more advance bet selection techniques.

3. GOTO 1

Lesson for all...work on your cognitive biases. I was falling prey to #5 and #8 below... basically making a choice and sticking with it too long. Both these are counterproductive to reading and adapting to what is happening in the shoe.

Sometimes i'm a freakin' BLOCKHEAD   and won't change what i'm doing. Going to concentrate on being more mentally flexible and read the shoe in the moment.

This is a cool infographic...hope it helps! 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2016 by XDotNet

[mjmtong]

Hello all. I am having a great "chuckle" (laugh here) with the comments made from the pros about 345 & 678.

But, wait theres more !

"Don't forget to ONLY step up into betting the 345 (or the 678) after you are ahead in the shoe AND you are winning the majority of your 1st bets of your (neg.) progressions AND always quit at +5 with a Stop of -8 or -10 depending on your risk tolerance and thats it. Thats your million dollar system!"

Sorry, guys...could'nt help myself.... a good laugh is what we all need at times !  

[brad01]

6-7-8 =   1  -  1,16   -  1.33

 

 

[brad01]

1 hour ago, XDotNet said:

1. Read the shoe duhhhhhhhh (joking a bit because Oz/Way2/Avion/Brad/Pando etc.. have been saying this over and over and over and over).

FOLLOW THE SHOE!

WHEN IN DOUBT WAIT IT OUT!

[mjmtong]

Hello everyone and hey XDotNet, good post and absolute FANTASTIC infographic!

 I loved reading it. I think it should help anyone understand how and why "incorrect" decisions occur.

The tricky and difficult part is to "apply it correctly"..AND all of the time...ha.ha..(as you pointed out)

As "mere humans" we just naturally have a tendency to just fuck things up. Some "humans" have a tendency to fuck things up very successfully.

At the baccarat tables, our job is NOT to "screw up" (enough of the f.... word).

How do we do that. We LEARN. How do we learn correctly. We learn from "History" and by "Experience".

Remember the quote: "Those who are not willing to learn from the mistakes of the past, are destined to repeat them".

 Do I have all the answers, hell no! (see, "hell" word now..not the f....word) Am I in search of a few "relevant and correct answers" that will help my game..fuck yes. (oops!)

I\we are all fortunate enough to be a part of this B.T.C. Baccarat community.

 We REALLY are fortunate enough to be given the opportunity of learning from some of the best players in the world on here who thankfully are willing to "share" with us humble "mere humans" what they have learned from their own extensive study and experience gained from years of playing Baccarat.

The truly great pro. baccarat players become "that good" because of their ability to NEVER stop learning and APPLYING correctly what they obtain from studying the "History" of the game. This very importantly includes a "Historic review" of their own actual results. After countless months and years of doing this AND actual Casino play they develop the EXPERIENCE by which they are able to successfully arrive at their OWN correct conclusions which they then insert into their OWN way of play.

 This is kind of why you just cannot ask these guys questions like: "can you please tell me your system and what are the rules?, and p.s. please provide your answer in (for example) "x pages" or less.". The thing is, there is NO simple "x..pages or less." answer that can be given to questions like this (except a "suitably rude" one) because there is NO one SINGLE SYSTEM that can be played against ALL shoes ALL the time that WILL actually WIN in the long term. It just AIN'T going to happen!

After learning the "basics" of how to correctly play S40, OTB4L, F, (and knowing that you are able to play them in various "Modes") then learning to be aware of any "SS"(Single Side) bias or dominance of: PvB, Op.v.Rpts, Otb4l.v.Tbl events occurring as the shoe is played (and also being aware of MDB+ scenarios) the "ART" is then being able to "correctly put it all together" to arrive at YOUR next bet placement decision (and how much to bet on it). "If" you are not sure whether to make the next bet or not, then "Wait it Out" and DO NOT place a bet.

Its about effective "Short Term Bias" identification AND then combining that, with what the shoe has "thus far" produced (Shoe "History") That, in my humble opinion, is what "Follow the Shoe" means and IS all about.

 To me, provided the bastards don't cheat you, it doesn't matter what type of card prep. the casino decides to use before they put the cards into their shoes, pre-shuffled, hand shuffled, machine shuffled etc. (way2fast has commented previously that he was able to "beat" different shuffle types using MDB+, despite it being "designed" to be played on "pre-shuffled" cards) 

So, in summary, UNLESS you CAN correctly identify that "tree in the forest" that meets YOUR specific requirements - DON'T even think about starting the Chain Saw! 

[ECD]

On 8/22/2016 at 6:06 AM, way2fast said:

Amazing as it seems, there are some who are touting a 678 negative progression as the best way to play.  I have a fair amount of experience playing baccarat in actual casinos for actual money at a variety of unit sizes.  I think many of those who believe this crap about 678 do not have that real experience, or they have become too acostomed to deciding how to play a shoe after the fact, instead of how the real pros play them, one hand at a time.  In The REAL WORLD, there is not a professional player who would jump to a new bet level that is 6x what he has been wagering.  And if their approach is to really start with the same amount of money for the first bet, but call it 6 units, then they are essentially just flat betting (yes, a BS Negative Progression!), which is a fine way to play, but certainly not some fucking winning breakthrough idea or much of a  secret.

Oz, can't wait to hear how you would have done if you played the perfect system at the best possible unit progression for that shoe!  

 

 

 

 

[ECD]

On 8/21/2016 at 4:57 PM, XDotNet said:

That's the kind of shoe I've been getting lately at 5 dimes and I can't follow them, it's been discouraging. I wish I knew how to read the shoes like you guys and Norm. It seems like the biases are so short. Mdb doesn't appear to be any good. I see the 211 and 311, you'd think it's going s40 but then back to 2s and 3s. Oh well, keep plugging ant keep trying to learn :-)

 

 

 

OK...I understand your frustration...been there... done that. At first glance this is a really shit shoe, but things aren't always as they seem...so sit back...grab yourself some popcorn and I'll try and take you through my thought processes. I don't keep a scorecard as such with SAP and all the other stuff, but I do keep a record for future reference. 

Brad's Shoe

No bet until H17 The previous events (B4211322which becomes 3) if they had occurred mid shoe would have had me betting OT earlier but at the start of the shoe I ignore the length of the first event other than to note that it was a 4+. Flatbetting only

I make mental note of hands 5 to 11 for poss future RD evaluation.

H17 Bet 1P  WIN +1...The B323 is a strong OT starting bet given  that 2's and  3's are OTB4L and recent Repeat History and confirmed by the previous 3iar on B side

H18 Bet 1P WIN +2...OTB4L

H19 Bet 1B WIN+3...OTB4L and confirmed by no event higher than 2iar on P side history

H20 Bet 1B WIN+4 ...OTB4L

H21 WAIT...Normally an Automatic OTB4L switch to P but I note that all previous multiples on the B side have been 3 or more so I have one signal saying to bet OTP and an opposing signal saying bet B...When in conflict...NO BET

H22 Bet 1P WIN+5 continuing OT ...This is a gimme because it's a normal OT switch after 3iar and the two previous multiples were 3's as well which classes as a MC event

H23 Bet 1P LOSE+4

H24 WAIT I'm torn here between a not so strong first RD1 bet on P and a history of multiples on the B side...No bet

H25 Bet 1P WIN +5  All previous history is telling me to bet Repeats...RD1 or OT...A no brainer

H26 Bet 1B WIN+6 Despite Repeats being the order of the day, I note that there hasn't been any event multiple on the P side higher than 2 so I switch to B (in my book if I haven't witnessed a previous event, then I play under the assumption that it won't happen.)

H27 Bet 1B WIN+7 eight repeat events v four 1's...gotta continue Repeat betting

H28 Bet 1B WIN+8 Repeat bet especially with no multiple event on the B side of less than 3 

H29 Bet 1P WIN+9 Switch to P MC event ...Last three 3's stayed 3 on B side

H30 Bet 1P LOSE+8 Both Repeats and OT are saying to bet P

H31 Bet 1B WIN+9 Continue betting Repeats. 

H32 Bet 1B LOSE+8 Possible OT bet on P but overuled by strong Repeat history ...no 2's on B side and SS indications

H33 Bet1P LOSE+7 Repeat bet 

H34 Bet1B WIN+8 SS says to make this bet...last 2 P's were singles...Repeats says to make this bet...and 5 out of last 6 events on the B side were multiples...a gimme bet

H35 Bet 1B WIN+9 SS 

H36 Bet1B WIN+10 SS

H37 Bet 1B WIN+11SS B history is saying to switch but in the words of the great Norm Allen "SS shits all over any other Baccarat Bias"...OK ...He didn't exactly say that...but that's what he meant.

H38 Bet 1B WIN+12 SS again

H39 Bet 1B WIN+13 SS

H40 Bet 1B LOSE +12 SS 

H41 Bet 1B WIN +13 SS Also confirmed by possible S40 bet with history prior to the B run indicating that a switch of Bias is in the air (keep that thought in the back of my mind) I remind myself though that the longer the run...the less likely immediate prior history (to the run) is not as reliable    

H42 Bet 1B LOSE +12 SS...Now I'm getting wary...Opps appear to be entering the equation.

H43 Bet 2B WIN+14 Both SS and Opps are saying to make this bet and if I am ahead in the shoe I always make this a 2 unit bet. (only once per SS though)

H44 Bet 1B LOSE +13 I risk one more bet on a dwindling SS when my instinct is screaming out to switch to S40...I lose and stick another pin in my Norm Allen Voodoo doll.

H45 Bet 1B LOSE +12 SS and S40 say to make this bet

H46 WAIT...I would normally look at making the B bet here as a typical S40 play especially given that there have been no events so far higher that 2iar on the P side, but two things have me edgy...I have just lost my last two bets which is a signal to me to think twice about my next bet and that run of 7Bankers just a few hands prior is a real worry.

 H47 WAIT 3's are still a  MC event for the shoe which has me thinking about betting on B but three things stop me from making the bet...I never like to make my first bet after two successive losses on a MC event...also there have been no 3+'s on the P side so I really don't have an indication from P history and still those 7B's still have me thinking. (I know the odds say that there will be another reasonable run of 4+ before the end of the shoe.)

H48 WAIT This is a typical S40 bet on P that I would consider if I had already been betting S40 before the 3iar, but there is not a strong S40 Bias so I wait one more hand 

H49 WAIT...History P17111132...Your guess is as good as mine

H50 WAIT see above

H51 Bet 1P WIN +13 ...With a P322 I am tempted with OT but I like recent history to back me up with OT decisions and the prior zz events rule out OT. This is still a Repeat shoe so I would make the repeat bet.   

H52  Bet 1P WIN +14 I was still torn two ways here because of the only 3iar on the P side but that previous 7iar sways me towards a run continuing to 4+ before shoe end 

H53 Bet 1P WIN +15 Repeat bet

H54 Bet 1P LOSE +14 Repeat bet

H55 Bet B1 LOSE +13 Repeat bet

H56 Bet P1 WIN +14 Even though I lost the previous 2 bets, I have my SS indication back and after all...this is a repeat shoe.

H57 Bet 1P WIN +15 SS

H58 Bet 1P LOSE +14 SS 

H59 Bet 1P WIN +15 SS

H60 Bet 1P WIN +16 SS

H61 Bet 1P LOSE +15 SS

H62 Bet 1P LOSE +14 SS

H63 Bet 1B WIN +15 Repeat This is still a "Repeat" shoe and I would risk one more bet at this stage. If it lost...I'd take the money and run

H64 Bet 1B WIN +16 Repeat bet

H65 Bet 1B LOSE +15 Repeat bet Lose the next bet at this stage and it's time to get the hell out of Dodge.

H66 Bet 1P WIN +16 Repeat bet 

H67 Bet 1P WIN +17 Repeat bet

OK +17 (give or take) flatbetting is not so bad in a shoe with no obvious S40 or OTB4L Bias.

I can't guarantee that this is exactly how I would have played this shoe, but it is more than likely the way I should have played. 

I've probably made a few mistakes, but no matter...I just wanted you to understand my thought processes and maybe  they might point you in the right direction.

Remembering that I am still an apprentice at this game myself. (I suspect that my current Mentor would have eaten this shoe for breakfast)

And please...no questions...I'm old and thinking makes my head hurt.

Just as a matter of interest...

Flat Betting = +17 units ...PA = 139%

Conservative 1 2 Loop = +26 units ...PA = 141%

U1D2 Neg Prog = +26 units ...PA = 142%

But if you wanna make some really big money?...the 6 7 8 progression wins you +116 units...NOT BLOODY BAD eh?...Oh WAIT...I forgot that you have to divide by your lowest unit amount...Hmm...116 divided by 6 = +19 (REAL) units with a PA of 141%...BUGGER...You can't help bad luck...eh?

Always remembering that this shoe played as I played it was perfect for any form of negative progression because the longest losing sequence was 2. Given that there is sweet stuff all difference in the PA of NP's ...Flatbetting and the 1 2 LOOP when this shoe soesn't get close to the limits of a NP...Tell me again why NP's are th go.

If anyone is at all interested in the musings of an old man, perhaps one of the more tech savvy on BTC (are you hearing me Brad?) could transpose this shoe into a more readable format.

OK...I'm outta here...gotta take a handful of headache pills.

Edited August 23, 2016 by ECD

[brad01]

I heard you

I will transpose to a score sheet with your comments

Thanks a lot

I'm sure everyone appreciates it

I need a headache pill after reading all that!