Baccarat Hall of Fame Member kachatz1 Posted March 21, 2017 Baccarat Hall of Fame Member Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 (edited) THE BEGININNING Even with all the tools one needs to be successful, we are all frequently caught up in " the web of inability to make a choice" PARALYSIS ( by) ANALYSIS ( as relates to Baccarat) , is essentially what a new player, an inexperienced player, even an ExperiencedPlayer(!), or just a player with a very limited bankroll is faced-with when making a decision Player or Banker (?) (1) we are playing with REAL MONEY, so naturally the tendency is to " worry over the result" (2) we are armed with innumerable stats, trends, tote boards, Systems, MM options, etc...in which case, we are OVERWHELMED with the tendency to " worry over the result" (3) we lose a few decisions in-a-row, and we are ready to TOSS EVERYTHING WE HAVE LEARNED out the back door...again, our tendency to " worry over the result" (of course, it's me, so you know I could go on-and-on...) That Said... I am suggesting you proceed as follows: (a) so you do not become a victim of PARALYSIS ( in effect, " doing nothing" ) , (b) or OVER-ANALYSIS ( in effect, trying to analyze every possible angle to such a large extent, that you decide there is no possible answer, no possible next play, no possible favorable outcome which is GUARANTEED) ,,,,,,,, Seems we need a relatively simple (and very attainable): ~ path to overcoming our fears, ~ guiding our results, ~ and making sure we profit from our decisions. Why not? Let's do just that...( starting tomorrow...for now thinking you can ponder-anticipate how YOU WOULD WRITE THE SCRIPT) Edited March 21, 2017 by kachatz1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baccarat Hall of Fame Member kachatz1 Posted March 22, 2017 Author Baccarat Hall of Fame Member Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 (edited) EXACTLY. Our innate fear of being " challenged" by others out to show we are " wrong" , coupled with our fear of losing our bankroll, leads to Paralysis by Analysis. ( Hereafter, PBA) in other words, we often forgo betting because we are afraid of losing that bet. Here is an example I am sure you all will understand: Convinced that the Banker will win the next hand, we bet Banker. - But , it's a TIE result, so now: -roughly 1/3 of us (33%) will " hold back" from making the next bet, -roughly 1/3 (33%) will change their mind and bet Player, - and roughly 1/3 (33%) will ignore the TIE and bet Banker again Given that ties represent approximately 10% of all outcomes , naturally the next bet could result in a B, P or T " win" with about 45% chance for each of B or P, and 10% chance of a TIE So roughly 33% of all Players, who so strongly believed in Bank just one hand ago, but now make NO BET, will have foregone their " opportunity to win" that second bet. Yes, some would have won with a Banker outcome, and some would have lost with a Player outcome on that second bet, BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE that a change of strategy to bet B or P was called for, after that TIE Why is this meaningful? Because 66% of us have just allowed a meaningless happenstance ( That is, there is no hard-and-fast evidence that a TIE accurately predicts the next hand's outcome) to get inside our head and impede our applying a " structured approach" ( strategy) to the game. This is just one example of PBA. Of course their are others. Which ones affect you most? Edited March 22, 2017 by kachatz1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trbfla Posted March 23, 2017 Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 Very good topic and great question Kevin. I would say my PBA happens the most when I'm trying to attain a win goal and lose thus making me now 2 units away from leaving and running to the cage. It is in that moment I second guess myself a lot. Then I'm frozen on the next play. Which usually results in another loss. Now I may have had plenty 2 losses back to back but when it happens close to a win goal and exit time......well that's my PBA Quote I yell "winner winner chicken dinner on all naturals" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users ECD Posted March 24, 2017 Users Report Share Posted March 24, 2017 (edited) On 3/23/2017 at 5:01 AM, kachatz1 said: EXACTLY. Our innate fear of being " challenged" by others out to show we are " wrong" , coupled with our fear of losing our bankroll, leads to Paralysis by Analysis. ( Hereafter, PBA) in other words, we often forgo betting because we are afraid of losing that bet. Here is an example I am sure you all will understand: Convinced that the Banker will win the next hand, we bet Banker. - But , it's a TIE result, so now: -roughly 1/3 of us (33%) will " hold back" from making the next bet, -roughly 1/3 (33%) will change their mind and bet Player, - and roughly 1/3 (33%) will ignore the TIE and bet Banker again Given that ties represent approximately 10% of all outcomes , naturally the next bet could result in a B, P or T " win" with about 45% chance for each of B or P, and 10% chance of a TIE So roughly 33% of all Players, who so strongly believed in Bank just one hand ago, but now make NO BET, will have foregone their " opportunity to win" that second bet. Yes, some would have won with a Banker outcome, and some would have lost with a Player outcome on that second bet, BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE that a change of strategy to bet B or P was called for, after that TIE Why is this meaningful? Because 66% of us have just allowed a meaningless happenstance ( That is, there is no hard-and-fast evidence that a TIE accurately predicts the next hand's outcome) to get inside our head and impede our applying a " structured approach" ( strategy) to the game. This is just one example of PBA. Of course their are others. Which ones affect you most? Well said, Kevin...The Tie is a tough one sometimes for me...Despite knowing that statistically, the bet following a tie should remain the same bet...it can be difficult not to let it get inside my head. Edited March 24, 2017 by ECD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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