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Hi gang, dani rose here.my situation is similar to Big chips but I guess he's been around quite longer than me, joteStarted playing baccarat Mid 90's but back then was worse compared today where I could win some and lose some. I noticed that whenever I win, these pit boss/dealer especially a substantial amount the pit boss would jot down your winnings and i would stare at them and he would look away and I was thinking the next play or shoe I bet ,I will then lose! So that if I Win a shoe even if it's small win I just totally stop and quit for the day so that I would not GIVE BACK MY WINNINGS BUT THAT IS NOT THE BEST STRATEGY OVERALL! If I could just go from 1 table to the next and win consistently like you THE  PROFESSIONALS can do , then my baccarat career would take off from there! I seem to be stuck in the mud here.

So in my case, I'm just content with small winnings but even that small on a regular basis this dealer would be pissed off and I would hear some of them.

"there he runs off! but I don't care AS long as I WIN ON A REGULAR 1 TIME BASIS but that's just it! ANY ADVICE/STRATEGY TO IMPROVE OR TO PISSED OFF more THE DEALER/PITBOSS WOULD BE MUCH APPRECIATED.Thanks a lot

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Hi Dani,

My comment it all comes back to the fact that this is a 50/50 game

Whatever strategy you play the house edge is very small and its a 50% game

So you will have deviations above and below 50% when you play but on average it will be 50%

If you walk in to a casino and you have a winning game then you have hit a positive deviation above 50% and if you quit right then - then you avoid the circumstance of hitting a counter negative deviation and giving it back

For a player who cannot get their average above 50% that is a good strategy - to walk in with a stop loss and stick to it and then hopefully hit a positive deviation above 50% and quit (really a stop win)

For those players like Oz, way2fast, McVince, wolfat, Pando, CT70, kachatz, and others their average hit rate is above 50% so they don't need to worry about a stop win / stop loss AS MUCH because on average their hit rate could be as high as 65% so as long as they play they will on average win.

It all comes back to getting your hit rate above 50%

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Would you suggest that to fix this dilemma,Brad, maybe I should wait for the OBVIOUS, easy tables to come and eventually it will come.no matter how long it takes!! Since this is a 50-50 game.Or, an imbalance in the frequency of events.(more bias events) and that's where you come in.But I have to practice PATIENCE THOUGH all the while tracking these in your ZAP counts.

But on the other hand, if you wait too long, just when you come in, the tide changes!!wham! PROBABLY NOT WAIT THAT LONG! not long and not early either

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Hi Dani,

I like tho think of it as a series of trends or patterns.

They can be anything you like: Player or Banker, Opposite or Repeat, OTBL vs TBL. High vs Low, Odd vs Even, Banker producing 2+ events, Player producing 2+ events, both sides producing 2+ events - make your own trends up.

It does not really matter they are all trends or patterns and they will all be hot, cold or warm and will constantly change.

So with experience you can determine form the shoe you are playing what trends to use and what trends are easy to predict.

So yes this is bias because never can all trends be perfectly balanced at once.

So if you do not have the experience to see a trend occurring that is easy to predict then you should not make a bet.

You must wait until you see a trend you know that is predictable and then you can place a bet

You may be wrong or right and if you are wrong you must be able to determine how far to follow it before you accept that you were wrong and the bias changed.

If you are right then obviously you can keep betting hoping that the trend or pattern will continue.

Whether you play it out until 1 loss, 2 losses, or until the point that you determine that you would like to lock in a profit before it changes.

Then you do the same again

If you are not sure then wait - 1 hand can be a big difference to be able to see a change

From my experience you should aim to predict a trend that is forming rather than try to jump on an obvious one that has already played out for a good number of hands

You know that stock your friend made a lot of money off and you decide to buy but the market cycle has peaked and you have missed the boat?

 

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To divide banker and player

P21121227

B3111316

Straight away you can see the tendency of the player to generate 1's and 2's apart form the 7 at the end

banker is generating 1's and 3's apart from the 7 at the end

If we look at it combined I see the start of an OTBL trigger of 23 which does not hold

It goes into an opposite bias of 1111211

The we have another blip of an OTBL trigger which actually holds a little: 3212

Then we have an obvious repeat bias of 67

Some other less obvious things to note:

ZZ events:

2642322

Long events followed by short events

Multiple clumps:

23 2 32 267

2  1  2   3

Predominantly multiple

A 23 pattern:

232322

An MDB+ trigger - 2 x 3's followed by a 3+

Even Odd events

E O E O E E E O

 

and there are no doubt many more trends and patterns others will see that I cant

 

 

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I forgot my favourite - The Mirror image:

P231111211321267

32123

The 1 is the mirror point

I sometimes bet with the mirror but if I choose not to I never bet against it

I cant explain it but shoes have a weird tendency for this to happen usually at least once

It often goes against all existing biases running

 

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6 hours ago, dani rose said:

Here is the real-time shoe that we've been debating with ellis latest creation ANB! but what's your take on it and maybe the  Pro's can comment  as well; thanks

 

P231111211321267  just 34 hands

 

 
 
 

This is a piss easy shoe which is probably why Ellis selected it...

If I played this by the book (My book)...

Flat Betting...16 Bets...WIN = +13...LOSE -3 ...TOTAL = +10... PA = 63%

Graded 1 2 3 Bets = 17 Bets...WIN  +22.5...LOSE = - 4.5...TOTAL = +18...PA = 68%

I will try to find time over the weekend to do a Play by Play...but it takes a heap of time for me to write down what goes through my head as I analyse each play.

I generally find myself betting around half of the hands dealt...If I don't know for certain what I should be betting...then I don't make the bet. 

It goes without saying that I don't use any form of Negative Progression

Edited by ECD
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BTW: I no longer use any form of Table Selection...I do what Norm said to me once..."Play what you see" 

That doesn't mean that every shoe is an easy shoe...far from it, but if I am well into the shoe and I'm struggling to make an impact, I don't let stubbornness or pride stop me from exiting the shoe early...preferably with a small win or at a push...zero.

Always keep the thought in your head though..."The majority of shoes have a sweet spot"...You really want to be there when it hits. 

Edited by ECD
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7 hours ago, dani rose said:

Here is the real-time shoe that we've been debating with ellis latest creation ANB! but what's your take on it and maybe the  Pro's can comment  as well; thanks

 

P231111211321267  just 34 hands

 

Dani, why don't you post how YOU played with and what your thinking was on each play?

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1 hour ago, way2fast said:

Dani, why don't you post how YOU played with and what your thinking was on each play?

I can answer that if it's Ellis's ANB...Ellis's systems are designed for the "Terminally Stupid" and require no rational thought and indeed rational thought is not encouraged. 

But I see your point...it's kind of a "You show me yours and I'll show you mine" situation. I gather Ellis got a bit rattled by Danni's questioning of "The Great Man" and gave him a hard time.

Looking at the bright side...unlike myself, you and Vinnie...at least he didn't get banned...LOL  

Edited by ECD
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Its interesting that when Ellis wants to show strenght of his new system he chose some easy shoe like 2112111311212 and he says look how s40 destroys it.

Also he would starded it on hand 3 because already ad hand 3 he knows that its easy s40 shoe and he would play it with 678, and at the end of the shoe he would have like 1 million of units.

P231111211321267

Nice s40 spot, blip of otb4l and few repeat bets at the end, player side nothing more then 2s and bankar 3s...but not all shoes are like this

Edited by Mr.O
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Thanks for critique my REAL-time shoe Ozzi /brad .I really don't know how to approach this kind of shoe coz it's a mixture of different systems.If OTB4L probably would be stopped out by 1's with the modes but I never used any modes I used it once.up to negative 3 prog but at that time I was winning and then wham! when I encountered a repeat I noticed my winnings from OTB4L were slowly diminishing so I quit 8 units. it went to as high as 16 units.

I think when the casino notices you winning in the first shoe, coz I suspect that the pit boss always jot down your winnings at what play # so that the next shoe.you won't have any chance of winning again coz they will prepare another shoe which is the nemesis from the first shoe you have already won before>

It would be interesting to see your approach and method (play by play) on how you tackle this kind of mixture of systems in one partial shoe ozzi. I note also that you have minimized losses but sizable wins.but to you it's just a piece of cake.

I usually flat-bet and don't use any progressions at all.I don't like the rollercoaster feel of a negative prog at all! I usually double my flat bet, triple even quadruple if I feel I'm in a run but not when I play OTB4L. maybe terrible two's side by side, S40,TB4L but I use the zap count as my guide.

So, Gentlemen, that's my style of play, I wish I could change it for the better coz I like to emulate what you guys are doing (winning one table to the next table)

 

I'm sure there are CFC members here That know the latest news that I somehow pissed off ellis and Larry over my argument as to why " would you continue on betting at a -8 score when we are supposed to cap our losses at -4 using (ANB approach). Ellis claims that ANB can wither the storm even at -12. That's when I draw the line and said to myself this is OUTRIGHT stupid!

For now, I'm still there and I could still log in Ozzi , I'm not banned yet. I could see several cohorts to the rescue supporting Ellis against me ALONE crusader who only wants to unravel the mystery of baccarat!

 

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I will do the Play by Play as soon as I can find the time for the benefit of all who are interested...

The difference between Ellis and myself is that Ellis plays Baccarat like a mathematician utilizing Negative Progressions...I, on the other hand (thanks to wise counsel by two of the best) play a thinking man's game. It isn't possible for me to teach anyone the way I play, as you will see...but it is possible for me to point people in the right direction. 

I have no idea if the Pit Boss is trying to combat me from shoe to shoe...I doubt it...but seeing as I am almost always the highest bettor on the table and I rarely lose...He needs to find something else to do nights coz it isn't working all that well for him.

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59 minutes ago, brad01 said:

You have a play by play you did for one of my crown casino shoes as well so we will have to drag that up and repost it also.

I think my play has moved to a new level since then, but it would be interesting to compare. 

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4 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

I think my play has moved to a new level since then, but it would be interesting to compare. 

Would be good if you can do play by play for some of your tough shoes to show us how to deal with constant bias changing.

 

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6 hours ago, dani rose said:

.I really don't know how to approach this kind of shoe coz it's a mixture of different systems.If OTB4L probably would be stopped out by 1's with the modes but I never used any modes I used it once.up to negative 3 prog but at that time I was winning and then wham! when I encountered a repeat I noticed my winnings from OTB4L were slowly diminishing so I quit 8 units. it went to as high as 16 units.

Dani, from reading your post I would make a suggestion on how you might want to approach the game.  IMO, you cannot keep looking at completed shoes to identify what system or systems would have beat it .  I know that is what is done at CFC every day with every shoe, but that is living in fantasy land.  Real players do not have the luxury to fit completed shoes into the best system to play.  We face shoes one hand at a time as they are played.  You must learn how to play a shoe as it is unfolding (i.e. "play what you see", or "follow the shoe").  Doesn't mean you have to be an expert like Oz, considering multiple things before making a bet or no bet decision -- no, you can start with one or two simple things.  But if you look at a completed shoe and decide, say OTBL would have killed it, what did you really learn?  Did you learn that you should always start a shoe with OTBL?  No.  All you learned is OTBL would have done well n some completed shoe that you will never see dealt again.  Complete hogwash and a waste of time.  If this was that easy, everyone would win.

I'm sure if you present a shoe at CFC that doesn't do well with ANB (whatever the fuck that latest "greatest" system is), then you were probably told that it was a perfect shoe for system xxx (fill in the blank - S40, OTBL, S3, MvD, etc, etc)  and had you only made that decision on hand 2 you would have won.  The only way to be "invincible" is to live in this fantasy world.  There are no consistent winners living in that fantasy world.

 

7 hours ago, dani rose said:

I think when the casino notices you winning in the first shoe, coz I suspect that the pit boss always jot down your winnings at what play # so that the next shoe.you won't have any chance of winning again coz they will prepare another shoe which is the nemesis from the first shoe you have already won before

Don't know where you play, but I doubt this.  Don't believe all the paranoia spoon fed at CFC.

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Thanks for the input W2F, Had I not attended the MvD seminar, I wouldn't discover this vicious cycle at all.You said it,  total waste of time and money!

When Ellis confirmed that there will be 7 attendees coming, fine, then I decided to come but there were only a couple of guys,  one of your guys Sam zhang i guess and a craig haltermann. Man, I don't know whether Ellis was working for the casino or suffering from memory loss but it was the complete opposite of the image he portrayed in the CFC forum.when he played REAL-TIME THERE. (flamingo, Venetian  etc..) and losed !  I Don't know how he recovered his losses and claimed MvD was a success? No wonder SAM Zhang wasn't betting the whole day,You can ask Mr.Zhang, he didn't even warn me of the danger that will come soon! I losed too,but I recovered not following ellis and did it on my own based on my past baccarat experience!

I don't want to relay the BAD experience I had, and when one of your  BTC members was asking how the MvD seminar went? There was no immediate answer on the January 2017 CFC public forum, even if there was, it was LIES! But I didn't expose Ellis yet until this shoe I presented to him! Hence, my decision to transfer here! Hopefully, the viciousness ends here! 

I play at RED hawk casino in Pleasantville CA . Do you or any of the BTC members play here would like to meet one of your guys play and see how they conquer these weird.erratic shoes.thanks

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Was Carlos at the Seminar?... Ellis is always giving Carlos a rap as his Chief long term Tester and because he plays purple...LOL...I would suggest that from the questions Carlos asked me, that the only "Purple" he's ever seen is the colour of Ellis's underwear.

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Hi ozzi,  just a couple of guys. Makes me wonder? (LEDZEP) why just a couple and not 7! Not even Dean or carlos was present that day..Would be interesting to see but I mentioned his name during the debate that he's betting $500 base bets (you think ozzi i didn't mention that) That's 2 gran at least (-4 LOSS). the most that I saw during my whole baccarat career was 1gran-2gran lose in a single bet and left.I too did that and move alone was stupid that's why I argued with them on this last shoe alone! I see carlos aka.dragonslayer maybe responding but I don't want to spend my time looking at their responses.I have yet to see W2F as an analogy to this but winning instead! 

incidentally, maybe one of you guys could drop by may 7- 11 and see you in action in vegas but not to attend the ANB seminar of course.Just made that flight to vegas by mistake when I decided not to attend instead. maybe my trip would be WORTHWhILE & EDUCATIONAL AS WELL with one of you. thanks

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2 hours ago, dani rose said:

Man, I don't know whether Ellis was working for the casino or suffering from memory loss but it was the complete opposite of the image he portrayed in the CFC forum.when he played REAL-TIME THERE. (flamingo, Venetian  etc..) and losed !  I Don't know how he recovered his losses and claimed MvD was a success?

His norm is to loose during "seminar" play, with the excuse of how he had to play a certain way for the benefit of the students instead of the way he knew he would win.  Then he always has a "miraculous" recovery that no one (except Carlos sometimes) managed to witness.  If it wasn't so sad and pathetic it would be funny.

2 hours ago, dani rose said:

I play at RED hawk casino in Pleasantville CA . Do you or any of the BTC members play here would like to meet one of your guys play and see how they conquer these weird.erratic shoes.thanks

Have never played there.  Frankly, it would LOW on my list of places to play as Placerville is in the middle of nowhere, and I would be very suspect of these minor-league casino's that sweat even low stakes play.

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From a business point of view its actually very smart

And everyone who's been in business knows that the guys who are absolutely brutal and can take peoples money with no conscience even if it means misleading them make the most money in that particular industry

The business we are talking about is selling systems not casino trading or casino playing like we do here

The business model:

Make up a strategy that tracks certain variables and trends and make up a story as to why the casinos are vulnerable to these

Market the system and sell it to people via a website or forum

Offer add ons and seminars at additional costs.

Produce hand picked shoes which win that particular strategy and show play by plays using them

When people come up with losing stories and shoes that lose belittle them as to how they didn't play it exactly right and show how they could have won

Ban them if they continue to disagree

Produce a new system that tracks different variables and trends and explain why due to the success of the previous system the casinos have manufactured their cards and countered it. But in the process have left themselves vulnerable to the new method which of course comes at an additional cost

And so the cycle continues - A VISCIOUS CYCLE !!!

HELL OF A LOT EASIER THAN PLAYING 8000 SHOES AND BUILDING UP YOUR BR TO PLAY HIGH UNITS AND MAKING CONSTANT TRIPS TO THE CASINO AND BACK TRYING TO STAY UNDER THE RADAR AS YOU PRETTY MUCH DONT NEED TO LEAVE YOUR HOME!

 

 

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