Tess

Here's what Ellis posted previously on scoring this same shoe from Baccplay with Sys40, 345 progression, 5 Hi - followed by my write up of the scoring card: Note: Ellis originally wrote Hand 30 as B4 but agreed in a later post that it was a typo and should be P4 since 2's were culprit. Ok, here's my questions....... Hand 11, you bet down under 1 iar instead of opposites. Why? If 2's were culprit or LC, why go OTR after 1 iar? Or were you considering 1's and 2's LC at that point since they were even at 0? If you did not have any shoe history or table history when you started this shoe LIVE, at what point would you consider 2's LC and go OTR after every 2? Without knowing this was a streaky shoe or table, would you start with 3's as LC and go OTR on Hand 4? Again, as a new player, it would be emotionally rough on me to go from +30 at Hand 28 down to +17 at Hand 34 (almost 50% loss). Of course, riding that low out brings you to probably one of the best wins on one shoe but there is no way of knowing if that is coming or not, or if you will end up completely back to zero. This is what has been the biggest challenge for me playing BJ and now learning Bac - to stop before losing all of your winnings because you think it will go back up right around the corner. Thank you for any advice or suggestions you would like to share with me on this topic. Tess

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Baccplay posted an interesting casino shoe on 10-26-10 on the System 40 Advance thread (currently closed thread). Ellis scored it in both F2 and Sys40 using a 345 continuous progression 5 Hi and asked for someone to write up the shoes and post them. Being new, I wanted to give it a shot. First, here is the shoe with F2 (Ellis' scoring copied above). Ellis did acknowledge later in the thread, his typo on Hand 17 which should be B5, not P5. Ok, here are my questions on this 345 continuous betting prog: Since you lost Hand 17 at 5 units, wouldn't Hand 18 stay at 5 units, instead of going down to 3? And then since you lost Hand 18 at 5 units, wouldn't you keep your bet at 5 units for Hand 19? This happened again at Hand 30 where you lost your 5 bet, so I thought Hand 31 would stay at 5 units, not drop down to 3. Or is 345 continuous suppose to be more conservative and have you go back down to your base bet if you lose a 5 bet? My main concern as a new player is even though this shoe ends up great and I would have wanted to stop at Hand 61 so I didn't go under my 30 decade, how do I handle getting through the low part of this shoe, right in the middle, down -3 at Hand 34 and -2 at Hand 38. ? If I was playing this shoe live and this is how it played out for me, I would have thought I screwed up my system or picked the wrong system and most likely bailed on the shoe by Hand 34, afraid to lose a lot of units. Hindsight is great of course but how do I know to stick with it to end up with 20+, 30+ or 40+? Maybe I would have sat out after Hand 34 until I saw the run starting after Hand 39. Jumping back in then would have worked out and pulled me out of the -3 hole. Ellis, I've seen other F2 sample shoes that played 345 but with M4. When do you choose M3 vs M4? Is M3 less risky (conservative)? Ok, now I am writing up Ellis' scoring for the same shoe from Baccplay with Sys40 with 2's culprit. I will post that as soon as I finish. Tess P.S. I will be traveling to Pennsylvania on Friday with my husband to join you at the Hollywood Casino on Sat & Sun. I am really looking forward to meeting both Ellis and Keith along with all the other members/students in attendance. Please feel free to PM me if you are going so I can find you and introduce myself.