kachatz1

just using it this shoe as the shoe has been unpredictable and I find it very conservative progression In time you will likely decide to use several types of progressions ... Each one for the kind if shoe you are playing, your bankroll , etc All of this is explained in the forum topics

4 moneybac, the hits keep on coming! player wins again P9 B0...gives us 5 Player streak with second column now at P115 I am up +6 units, so with my 1,1,2,2,4 progression I now move to 2 units on Player

And it is the Player once again P7 B6 This Player run scores have been p7 B6 P9 B8 P9 B0 P7 B6 ( last hand) Shoe now at stands as follows: PP BBBB P B P B PPP B PP B PP B P B PPPP Time to make a decision, and seems best to let the P ride for another unit ( I have lost too many times trying to break a streak!) player running with 16/10 advantage over Banker I know Ellis' feeling on these things, but through 26 hands, P has total 12 hands ending in 7,8 or 9. banker has 11 of same... player also has 7 hands ending in 0,1 or 2. While Banker has 6 of same. Sometimes I will evaluate these " biases " to help me make a decision, but they seem all even up here in this shoe...so no help ther! I'm in for one unit on the Player until .....

Well, Mr. Bill, you correctly picked a Player win. We are now at P113 in the second column of our shoe... I am backing the Player for another win... Oh, and All the while the Bac table across the way just had 3 ties in the last 5 hands, and Table #3 has opened up with 6 people playing and the first two decisions PP...same way we opened up this table...

Well, out comes the Player again. P9 B8 Now P112 in the 2nd "column" of 20 hands, so at hand 25 and given the stong 2's indicator on the player, i am going back on the Banker for 1 unit. So far total shoe: PP BBBB P B P B PPP B PP B PP B P B PP I am up 5 units, and starting to think maybe this could work out after all...

Sure enough, hand # 23 was a Player (P7 B6), which leaves us at : PP BBBB P B P B PPP B PP B PP B P B P That suggests to me 1 unit on the Player, as there seems to be a strong enough pattern of PP to warrant a second P.But in the back of my mind, i am thinking the string of single bankers is getting a bit long in the tooth...( though i have seen "runs" of more than 10 singles on P and B before a switch to 2-or-more consecutive, enough times to know that nobody knows!) For now, let's see how this plays out...another way to look at it would be to say "look at all those 1's, in the shoe...clearly the most dominant...though last "1"on P is still unconfirmed...hmmmmmmm (?)

Go figure it was a Banker, so down to two units for this shoe and I will go all in ( a whole 2 units this shoe! , but with a lot of 1's on the Banker I am in for it all -- 2 UNITS) on the Player! WIN I am up 4 units, lose I am back to square 1... So second column we are at P11 ( table # 3 is just getting ready to open but I will wait and see if any discernible trend/ bias just as Ellis suggested!)

The PA video was going to be available for all who attended and paid the seminar fee. Likely I missed the post but how do I get it, and will the Vegas attendees get the Vegas video at no charge?

If you are still reluctant to join, so be it, but where i live the shoes generallly run $25 min per hand, and with MM, et.c i am beting over $6,000 per shoe ( $ $600 is 10 percent of a single shoe...win just a few hands more per shoe, and in no time you are in the plus column, my friend...)And lest anyone want to know, I do this for fun, not profit for Ellis ( he and Keith are nice people, but I have plenty to do with the rest of my time...) Still, even at the annual fee, ( same as i joined at, not monthly), you should stongly consider PRIVATE vs. PUBLIC memebership. I will not ask you to believe me, but perhaps you can solicit some other PRIVATE FORUM member opinions... For me, i have won 50-fold what my membership cost ( YES, net-net over $30,000) By the same token, I have played literally/actually/for real several thousand shoes, and after so much play I have a few ideas about "shoes-I-have-seen-before", so while I am playig new shoes I do have some "feelings" about what-to-do other than just SAP, NOR, System 40, Maverick ( read the posts), F2, F3, yada yada Do not let anyone tell you that one type of "system handles every kind-of-shoe"...it does not, so you have to have a feeling for the game...I can tell by you posts YOU ARE NOT A NOVICE, and even your questions are more about should i invest in this after ( perhaps??) some other failed "bacarat investment systems" I could be way off base, but i will tell you this.- 1) You have seen me play a shoe likely one of the worst type, yet not afraid to make decisions acccordingly ( or sit out, as needed) 2) You cannot/will not win every shoe 3) There are those who say grab a few units and GET OUT of the shoe, and those who will say set a realistic stop-win ( get - out) and stop-loss ( get out) objective. 4) The posts you can access over the last few years are invaluable to helping you "get-it" ( but I think you are alrready way more advanced than this, ( I like to think have a pretty good sense of people and their abilities...)and likely the "holy grail" has eluded you...P.S. THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL, and no amount you pay for a system or anyone's advice will get you there every shoe!! 5) Just google the free forum BACCARATFORUMS, and if after a few days you are not nauseated by the rheotic, the BS, or the whatever...play on, and come on bac (k) pun intended 6) Sign up for the live forum December in Vegas! C 4 yourself! I cannot help you with the price, but I CAN help you with the outcome of your investment. Up 2 U. And as always, good luck to all!!!!!

Dancito For a mere $50.00 a month you will see way , way back for seeral years.. I am not sure of your minimum bet in your country, but most BAC games in the states now $15-$25.00 minimum!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Two or three shoes in 10 minutes, and you are up to speeD AND HAVE ACCESS TO THE EXPLOITS OF MANY, Many Players HAVE PLAYED FOR MANY, MANY YEARS,, Best bargain , most assurable winninghs on the entire internet!

Dancito- So much has been written on this topic! If you are now a private member, I suggest you review the many, many posts so you can formulate the best possible decision theory for Dancito. As an aside, i will ask Ellis to answer as well, as he can be very succint...BUT PLEASE, PLEASE DO READ SOME OF THE OLD POSTS!! ( very valuable stuff F2, F3, etc.)

Agree with Ellis on his assessment of the shoe, unfortunately Milwaukee has ONE casino, and usually only two tables open. It was aPlayer result, so I will go there again for one unit on Player. now at P241111312121 first 20 hands and P1 start of the next 20.... Stay tuned

Sure enough,it was a single Banker as Player wins. We now are as follows P241111311 Not sure that presenting it this way helps or not, but with few real trends I decided to wait out a few hands to see what comes next. I am up a whopping two units ( less commission) at this point, but table #2 across from me was completely full ( as is this one) and table #3 has still not opened up yet as they work on the initial shuffle. Since we all seem a bit stumped I will lay out the next five hands for you, exactly as they occurred. P9 B5 B9 P1 P7 B3 P6 B1 B7 P0. Sooooooo, that brings us all to the end of the first 20 Hands ( excluding one Tie) Here is where the dhow stood PP BBBB P B P B PPP B PP B PP B Tired of sitting out as the play was fairly slow, so I jumped back in at this point and bet one unit on the Player, because it seemed all the bank could muster was a bunch of 1-in-a-rows after that initial run of 4B's early in the shoe and OT4BL was starting to take shape. Anyone else?

Ellis- Not sure if i will answer corectly, but these cards came right out of the shuflemaster. If you suspect they came fro a "random generator", then perhaps you need to tell us ALL how to identify this? I know all about table selection, etering the shoe at the optimal ( i.e." for our chosen strategy") point,etc. But the cards dealt in this shoe were started at around 9 pm, likely been played all day...I play all the time this casino, and they DO NOT keep putting new cards in play , unless it is a new table, as I described table 3 coming on line a few hands ago ( liley to open around 10pm)...FYI, I verified with the dealer this table was open all day...THIS IS A REAL SHOE,PLAYED REAL TIME last wednesday night in Milwaukee WI.. www.paysbig.com This is the first time I have seen you ask this question ( seems you had asked previously) ?? So not sure how to answer...maybe a good lesson for all, HOW-DOES-ONE-DETECT-THIS for absolute certainty?

So it was a Banker winner...B5 P2 Time for me ( who is now +0 for the shoe) to a time-honored strategy seems to work for me. I wrote about it in a post titled A HORSE WITH NO NAME, dated 2/28/10 Been using it for years,when in doubt, and yes, despite the "50'50" nature of the game, just seems to work a little more than 50/50 So I am now going to back the Player for 2 units. Read my post, 18 months + old, and you will understand. That is the beauty of this forum...you can go back, over and over, to some stuff has been written and debated before. Who else wants to bet?

I see Ellis with a similar line of reasoning, and certainly it helps establish a sound basis for a play on the Banker. Unfortunately, the result was P7 B4, so we now have 3 players-in-a-row...that leaves me still +1 unit for the shoe, and since we have seen a 4 in a row already I will wager 1 unit on the Player. here is where we stand so far: PP BBBB P B P B PPP good luck, everyone!

Well, pretty much we all concurred that with the "run" of 1's, best bet was on Banker. And of course, Player comes along instead... So now we have the following: PP BBBB P B P B PP 6 player , 6 banker I decided to sit this next hand out, and just wait and see. Was thinking to go right back on Banker, but this next hand was a No Bet for me. Ideas, Ellis?

Bill is absolutely right ( meaning he should pay more atention to the BTC site...Ha! he knows me...).. .It Was A Player! And now me up two units I have to just go with the flow...BACK TO THE BANKER FOR ONE UNIT! PP BBBB P B P B P so far...those of you who want to circle-the-wagons, make sure you provide for the women and children... The cocktail waitress has left, but across the way I can see as follow PP BB PP last six hands... AND someone just won $319 on slots behind me.. Cha Ching, Cha Ching...bring it on!. who wANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?

Joeystyle: great thought... i am most excited by the fact that we now have 8 players in/out of this shoe. this is the most # of BTC forum members involved in a single post in a long while! THIS IS A REAL SHOE. I AM PLAYING EXACTLY AS I PLAYED IT THE OTHER DAY. THIS IS NOT, REPEAT NOT A TEST OF WHAT WORKS, WHAT DOESN'T e.v.e.r.y. s.i.n.g.l.e. h.a.n. d ( nothing works every single hand!!!), and it is not a test of Ellis' will and deternination to make a $million ( see his earlier post) rather, it is a real-time ( almost) engagement of all of our forum members ideas/concepts, and as stated befor: 1) just say what you bet 2) say how much and what Money Management strategy are you using for this shoe?? 3) help us all have a look at just what NOR, SAP, SYS 40, or w.h.a.t.e.v.e.r. it is you are using to win/ play /bet ( you will not be held accountable for every hand! And I will not respond to negative comments!) Ellis rules in my book, no matter what! I have met him and Keith, they are the "real deal" and any doubts sign up for the Vegas seminar and you will become a true believer Or, cannot make it to Vegas??? just read a bunch of the previos posts, and you will catch up real quick to "where we ( as a group ) are at..." That said, game on...Our singular goal is to "win this shoe", whether your objective is one unit, two units, five units or Whatever>>>>>>>>

yes that is exactly where we are at

I have played with Bill in Biloxi, MS. several times, and I understand if us old-timers are sometimes uncertain, then we all can benefit by learning NOR, Sys 40, SAP counts, etc! Well, the result WAS a Banker, and good call by newbie to the forum Dancito, asking about a bit of terminology...FYI, it is explained in many of the previous posts, and that is the beautiful thing about this forum, it is "built on prior concepts, prior testing, prior "best practices concepts" have a look, Dan and you will see... AGAIN, does not mean a.n.y. bet is 4sure...reminder about the 50/50 rule... ----------------We strive to "win" the shoe/get-in/get-out with our predetermined stop-losses, etc. We have learned that this is the best path to success... So I am up a unit now after four 1's-in-a-row, but do I keep up with the mini streak of chop? OK, so I will, and I will just FOLLOW-THE-SHOE, and bet another "chop" to Player for my next bet. This streak ( of 1's) is getting a bit long-in-the-tooth, but when I was actually at the table, I felt it was the best thing to do... ( ps --I am following my own 1,1,2,2,4 progression up and down, as i am betting much more than table minimums...) REMINDER- MONEY MANAGEMENT IS A PERSONAL thing, but you have to have a MM strategy in mind...and stick to it.... We shall see, right? Oh, and the Cocktail Waitress just showed up, right as I was betting! ( one of my oersonal superstitions about betting is if the CW shows up right as a bet is being placed, look out) Oh well, too late as the dealer has just dealt the cards...should have looked both ways before crossing...

Well, here we go and the chop was "on"' resulting in a Player win. Fortunately, I guessed right and brought me back to Even for the shoe Now the shoe stood at PP BBBB P B P For me, my next bet was placed on Banker for one unit, as I was still thinking chop and the 1's had their own little streak going.. Anyone else?

Bill, Dancito and and B@..........we were all wrong...it was the Banker... So, When I played the actual shoe, i said "OK" it is chop, but really another kind of streak and while i wanted to stay on OT4BL I decided to go back to Player side for 2 units...MY BET $50 ( 2 UNITS ON THE pLAYER, AND NOT FEELING REALLY GOOD ABOUT IT...)( my progression 1,1,2,2,4) Ellis can you help out with NOR, and Why? Bet progression?.NOTE I GLANCED UP AND LOOKED OVER AT THE OTHER TOTE BOARD ACROSS THE WAY, AND IT WAS 4p IN A ROW.. reminder this is real playing conditions, real thoughts, real results.........welcome to the Jungle....

Ok,ok so Dr. Ellis was correct, Player wins ! leaves us as follows, starting with hand 1 of the shoe P8 B5 P8 B3 Tie 9/9 B7 P1 B8 P6 B3 P1 B9 P0 P4 B2 Or, P241(unconfirmed) Staying with my 1,1,2,2,4 progression, It seems that maybe OTB4L is looking good so I will stay on the P for another hand for 1 unit. deal!