punvit
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Posts posted by punvit
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For the sharpies:
Standing back and taking a fresh look at S40A it seems to me that about the only thing that can go wrong is that if we happen to be in F2 mode and we hit the 212s on the wrong side.
The 40 mode beats the 212s soundly.
The RD1 mode beats the 212s OK by betting down under a 1,2, which is the purpose of that rule.
But F2 KILLS the 212s if the initial 2 is on the side you are betting.
So, it seems to me that F2 needs to have some overriding rule that always puts you on the side of the 2s in a 212 run. The old F2 rule did that but the new F2 rule can miss the 212s if they happen to occur on the wrong side.
I'm thinking this way: In a good F2 shoe we don't change sides very often. Therefore it seems to me that when we do switch sides our first bet on the new side is usually a low percentage bet. Therefore, why not go back to the initial bet of our prog? Then if we lose that first low bet on the new side we wait and see. Is the shoe going to the 212s or the 22s? See if it goes to the only other possibility, the 2,3s we win our first bet on the new side so that possibility is already covered.
What do you guys think?
About the only other thing that can go wrong is if we hit straight runs following straight runs in 40 mode and those runs happen to be the wrong length. I'm thinking that particular scenario calls for an automatic switch to RD1 which loves runs following runs.
I realize we can't head off everything that can go wrong but we CAN react to the obvious misadventures.
Post was cancelled.
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No problem. Those are the same old conditions I learned under in AC. New cards every shoe. But before we get into discussion I need to know if the new cards come out in 8 boxes or one box.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying the dealer has any influence. He is just following orders.
It may be that you can only go by the shoe at hand. You don't always have a better clue. Remember that at Hollywood there was only one table. But we still did very well.
Hi Ellis, the cards come in one box and hand-shuffled on the tables in front of players before put in the deck for play. From what my friend told me, they have nothing to do with changing the randomness of the cards or have "orders" from anyone.
For me, it doesn't matter. When I play, I just wait for a few hands to be dealt and choose the right system to start with it. And just keep on O/R count to locate the L/C along the way. If, it is not smooth or it is going agaist my ways, I will simply find another table. I do prefer to play with choppy shoes, because they are easy to beat with S40. But, if I cannot find a choppy shoe, I will choose the least streaky shoe I can find and deal with it, by using S40A.
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Because it was the result of the same shuffle. Perhaps my reply of just two days ago is relevant here:
Default Re: O/R count
QUESTION:
Quote Originally Posted by Frank77 View Post
What is the relevance of the O/R count. If you are starting a new shoe whatever happened to the last shoe would have no relevance to what will happen to the new shoe. If I understand correctly you wait for the first bet and then place your first bet opposite and play opposites until you have an LC and use the LC when it applies, so where does the O/R come into it ?
ANSWER:
The OR count is a precise count of chop vs streak or, to be more precise, opposites vs repeats.
First, with a little more study you will see that there ARE such things as streaky tables and choppy tables; Streaky shoe colors and choppy shoe colors; Streaky new card preps and choppy new card preps. Streaky hand shuffles and choppy hand shuffles; streaky machine settings and choppy machine settings. No 3 shuffle routine can randomize 8 decks of cards. It would require 7 shuffles to the 8th power to randomize 8 decks of cards. This would take days.
If the cards were random, Basic Strategy alone would beat BJ and there would be no casinos. They use the same shuffle techniques and the same machines in Bac. In Bac, if the cards were random, casino Bac profits would be limited to commission and casinos could not afford to deal Baccarat. But, as is, Bac is the highest profit maker for casinos of all table games by a mile.
For instance: in BJ, Basic Strategy wins 43% of the hands overall and the casino drop retention is 15%.
In Baccarat, a 50/50 game, casino profits went from 3% of the drop in the'90s to 26% of the drop today. Casinos could not achieve a 900% increase in profits if the cards were random. Their per capita profits would be stagnate.
A choppy table can remain choppy all day and a streaky table can remain streaky. This would be impossible with random cards.
30 years of profitable play and hundreds of thousands of shoes have clearly demonstrated that Baccarat is not random. If it were, Baccarat would be impossible to beat and all Baccarat players would be purely stupid.
That is what "random" means. Synonyms would be "unpredictable" or "unbeatable".
Yet, players right here have CLEARLY demonstrated time and again that Baccarat is clearly beatable.
The OR count tells us if the shoe at hand is streaky, choppy, or neutral.
S40 beats chop (+ OR count) hands down.
F2 beats streak (- OR count) hands down.
That fact is the basis of the S40A approach.
To that we add OTB4L which beats Neutral hands down.
And we add RD1 which beats a shortage of 1's.
So, the OR count is your basis of system selection.
The SAP count identifies the LC event.
We employ both.
The counts are consistent in about 90% of shoes.
They are inconsistent in about 10% of shoes.
Therefore once you have mastered the entire S40A technology you can enjoy about a 90% overall win rate just as we did on the Hollywood trip.
And once you have mastered LC technology your winning shoe avg will be far more than your losing shoe avg just as demonstrated on the Hollywood trip. The Hollywood trip was just ONE of hundreds of public Baccarat exhibitions.
So to answer your question directly, SAP tells you how to apply sys 40. OR tells you which system to play.
Last edited by E. Clifton Davis; 11-02-2010 at 05:55 AM.
Hi Ellis, the casino that I usually go to, they use new cards and hand-shuffled in every new shoe at all the MIDI tables. I have noticed that every shoe has produced difference outcome every time, no matter what "color" the card is (red or blue). Some are streaky and some are choppy. So, I cannot really tell which table or color is choppy or streaky until the shoe is start playing.
One good friend of mine is a long-time baccarat dealer at a 5 stars casino in Las Vegas. He is working in both low limit (out side tables) and in high-limit room, which he has seen some players bet up to $100,000 per hand with special chips ($25,000 chip). He is also love to play baccarat on his day-offs. I play with him sometimes at different casinos. He told me about the MIDI and BIG TABLES in the high-limit room. They use an 8 decks new cards with hand-shuffled in every new shoe and the dealers have nothing to do with the cards. I am not trying to against your theory, but this is what he told me. And I found no reasons for him to lie to me. He is also trying to win this game with some methods or systems like most of us. Any comment, anyone?
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hello, I dont think it can hurt,but save you time to write down on your score card what you see on the board,like the last 10 hands. but i dont like to make my first bet til I get the lc and mc.
it is best to wait and see the way the shoe is going.
and by the way Ellis,and every new players of 40, I just got the manual,read it and went to play it at the roulette table since they dont have baccarat.
I covered the zeros with a small bet,and guess what,I won 5 out of 6 games,and probably lost that one because like stupid deviated from the system one time and played against the trend.
system 40 is what I play,and for all players out there who get confuse by so many systems, you can win consistently with it,and it simple enough where you dont get brain dead like some other more complex systems do.
system 40 is all I really want to play as my foundation.,with f2. like Ellis said before,it can be applied with few changes depending on the shoe and that is common sens.
if I am not sure on a decision, i make my "not-sure bet",and bet 0. if am pretty sure and things are clear, you can make your high bet. and if you think you know but not 100%,make your medium bet. 90% of the time is good enough for me. the bookeeping of system 40 is what i love the most,along with the philosophies that make it such great system.
keeping things simple is what I love. some may think they are so smart by using so many codes that they easily confuse everybody.
I can play one system,want to get good at it,and that is system 40. it is not difficult to learn at all. what IS DIFFICULT is not to be seduced by other systems who rely too much on gut-feelings. instead of practicing just that one system and get an expert at it,one can surf for years for the holly grail. dont let anyone fool you because it only cost $150, because I paid over one thousand dollars in the past,with someone who claimed we would play together hands on,only to find out later I was just lucky when i played with him.
Ellis is for real, and I heard him way back with his first nbj system, which is the best blackjack system ever, and with system 40.he has done the same thing!
he did not ask me to write this, but the man has my most respect. he always take my calls and never rush me to get off the phone and I am thankful.
Rinaldo
This posted should be post in the "Public Forum" as well.
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hmmmm well I got somethig screwed up thanks I look into it
I am glad I checked it out.
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When I clicked on the link, it would take me to this page;
vBulletin Message
punvit, you do not have permission to access this page. This could be due to one of several reasons:
1.Your user account may not have sufficient privileges to access this page. Are you trying to edit someone else's post, access administrative features or some other privileged system?
2.If you are trying to post, the administrator may have disabled your account, or it may be awaiting activation.
Log Out Home .
But, anyway, now I know exactly where that page is.
Thank you.
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Hi Keith, the link does not go throgh.
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It is up to you. If you want to play with $5 unit size, then your buy-in would be $100. And $25 unit size would be $500 buy-in. It is really up to you, whether you want to buy-in with all your bankroll or partial of it. All we need is minimum of 20 units per sesssion.
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I would say that we need about 20 units buy-in per session. But, regarding the unit size, that is depend on you bankroll. I always play with $25 or $100 based units, depends on how well I do on a certain shoe.
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sorry I forgot to add how we deal with the "terrible twos"......you simply go around them with a bet that there will be another twrrible-two immediately after a "SET OF TERRIBLE TWOS".....and if you win your bet, just stop and sitout for the next decision. If it continues the terrible-twos...don't bet any more in the sequence until you see the "change"
Well, good luck on your guessing and hopefully you won't miss out on those good bets!!
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You should come join us Tigerlarry, it will be worth your money!!
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So, if the 2's, 2's come out, you will lose on all of them??
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i used 345 prog i don't really use rd1 just F2 and 40
Thank you blacktiger.
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Yes it is possible. To win flat betting you must simply win more bets than you lose. So the task becomes good system selection, just as we teach it here. Note that we would have done quite well on the Hollywood shoes had we merely flat bet. But, the same thing that makes a shoe a good flat bet shoe also makes it a good prog shoe. And the limited 345 also prevents runaway progs.
Thank you Ellis, I will keep this in mind.
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Hi Ellis, just to prevent a run-a-way prog. Is it possible to use F2 to win a shoe with streaks, 1's and 2's by using a flat bet? And also, can we do the same thing with 40A with choppy shoe?
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And for those of us who were worried about Black Tiger, I just got this PM from him:
"yes i understand everything now Ellis and guess what? i won 52 units in 3 shoes today, by playing s40,F2 and RD1 i don't even believe mysefl that i learn this just in couple days, but a big happy is that i've found a master like you and will be the only one 4ever, thank U Master"
I think we can relax a little.
Hey BT, I suspect you don't post much because you are concerned about your English. Forget that. Nobody here cares about good grammar.
BTW, our Mandarin sucks!
Hey Black Tiger, what prog. did you use on those shoes?
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Punvit, first, a $5000 bankroll is huge and more than ample for $100 units but Bankroll size is not the best measurement to go by. It is best to only go to $100 units on winnings, not out of pocket.
We are not there to show off or to be one of the guys. We are strictly there to make money. Look at it as a job.
First get your play down smoothe and mistake free. I'm talking CASINO play here, not home practice. At home you have do-overs. In the casino you don't.
A tip to help you play mistake free is always do everything in the same exact order.
1. Fill in your score from the prior play.
2. Enter your bet on your card properly and check that it is right..
3. Place your bet ON THE RIGHT SIDE
4. BEFORE YOU TAKE YOUR HAND OFF YOUR BET, CHECK THE AMOUNT AND YOUR BET PLACEMENT.
Now, you are going to have easy shoes and tough shoes, easy sessions and tough sessions. Some sessions the shoes are consistently choppy (or streaky) while other sessions are not so consistent
Some days the red and blue shoes are doing the same thing and some sessions they are not.
Your unit color should be determined FIRST by the ease of the session and SECOND by bank roll.
NEVER raise the stakes because you are doing poorly! ONLY raise the stakes when you are doing well.
If the table is not treating you right LEAVE.
DON'T "chase" your bets. That is the sign of an amateur.
DON'T let the other players influence you. THEY LOSE.
When all is going wrong, leave, BUT
When all is going right, EXPLOIT the situation.
Baccarat is not so much about how you play your good shoes. It's a whole lot more about how you play your bad shoes.
NEVER decide your system or your stakes or your prog before you get to the casino - that is pure amateur.
Let the conditions make that decision.
OK, until you know the conditions you have no business making anything but table min bets IF YOU BET AT ALL.
NOW, the limited 345 is a great prog but ONLY if you are usually winning your first bet. If you are usually losing your first bet you have no business making it more than 1 unit. You also need to check your system selection. We always want the system that wins the most first bets. I call the 345 "limited" because your highest bet is limited to 5 and you can not have the worst thing that can happen in Baccarat - a runaway prog.
Here is an example of how to look at this. Lets compare a 123456 to a 345345 in a rough situation:
OK, lets say you win 6 bets in a row and then lose 6 bets in a row:
With the 123456 you are DOWN 15 first bets.
With the 345345 you are down TWO first bets!
Let's say you win the 7th bet.
With the 123456(7) you are STILL down EIGHT first bets. You need to win EIGHT bets to get even.
With the 345345(3) you are only down ONE first bet. You need to win ONE bet to get even.
So, should you always play the 345? Only when you are solidly winning the majority of your first bets - only when you are playing the RIGHT system.
Everybody else looks at the object of Baccarat as winning your prog. WRONG!
Look at the object of Baccarat as winning your first bets. THAT is what will get you on the best system the quickest.
U1D2 M2 is a great prog but it CAN get you into trouble and it can have runaway progs.
345 might lose now and then but it can't lose much.
Winning targets are NOT a good idea. They tend to make you overplay bad shoes and underplay good shoes.
The same Baccarat shoe has NEVER been dealt twice. EVERY shoe is a brand new experience. Forget targets! Go by what is reasonable for the shoe you are playing right now.
IF you are at +20 at play 20, that's one thing. Go for it - up to a point.
IF you are at 0 at play 20, that is an entirely different story.
ALWAYS keep your wits about you.
NEVER get angry no matter what. Leave instead! You can't always beat them.
Sometimes they are highly vulnerable.
But sometimes they are not!
Know the difference.
Hi Ellis, after I have read your replied, I could "feel" every situation you were talking about. You' re really clear up my mind. This posted is not only good for me, but for all the members in this forum.
Thank you again for your valuable advised.
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Hi Ellis, please give advises on questions below;
Based on $5,000 bankroll. Strictly playing with System 40 A (new F2 rules and RD1) with good MM. Between flat, 123, 234, 345 prog., which one should be used in order to get the highest win percentage yield per session?
What is the unit bet size to apply?
And what is the winning target and losing target per session?
Thank you.
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Thank you very much for your information.
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It is in System 40 manual, do you have one?
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Between OR counts and OT counts, which one gives us more accuracy to determine, which system should we use? Or they both even?
Thank you.
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Thank you for your advised.
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Keep up your speed Ellis, don' t let them go pass you!!! We all still believe that you can do it!!!
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I agreed on everything!!
As I always play at the tables with LCD monitors. So, I don' t need to do a "SAP" chart to get the LC. But, I still keep track of the OR counts as well.
S40A Manual Q&A
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted · Edited by punvit
OTB4L means opposite time before last. When you see P B bet B or BB bet P and so on.