fluppocinonys
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Posts posted by fluppocinonys
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Ellis, here is one shoe I played today, as it's a new shoe, I started out using OTB4L...
But I don't think I did well, is there anything wrong with my OTR bet placement or this pattern is simply a nemesis of OTB4L?
Everytime I use OTB4L, I allow myself for 2 losing bets before going OTR.
Hand 4: Lost 2 hands consecutively, went OTR betting opposite
Hand 5: OTR did not work, switch back to OTB4L on this hand
Hand 6: Using OTB4L on this hand, my progression is U1D2M2 and caps at 5 units anyway
Hand 7: Lost 2 hands consecutively, went OTR betting repeat
Hand 8: OTR did not work, switch back to OTB4L on this hand
Hand 9: Finally won a hand.
Hand 15: OTR on repeat
Hand 22: OTR on opposite
Hand 32: 3s developed in hand 31, since 4s is MC, I bet OTR one hand earlier like Ellis recommended, but did not win. (I didn't do the same on hand 18)
Hand 33: Switch back to OTB4L on this hand
Hand 35: OTR on opposite. Lost, quit.
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BK, it is definitely generous of you to do that but we respect your decision since you invented that system yourself.
But what really intrigues me is that you mentioned your base unit is 5 and stop at +50, which means you play only 10+ hands for each session or roughly 2 bets on 5 different shoes.
Now I would really love to see some sample shoes of yours! Ha!
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BK, what if you loss that 5 units bet? Do you increase to 10 units on the same shoe or simply look for another table and start with 5 units bet again?
Some days are really that bad or unlucky to lose 3 or 4 bets consecutively even though the shoe history and your system indicate strongly what to bet next, for instance a S40 shoe with P112111, but the moment you started playing, 4 in a row comes out, that would be a devastating loss if your base unit is 5, has this ever happened to you? What would you do?
btw, which casino in SG do you play at? RWS or MBS? I personally think MBS's shoes are totally trendless.
Thanks.
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OTB4L is played by betting that the next outcome will be the same as two outcomes ago.
I believe you mean the next outcome will be the opposite as two outcomes ago.
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and this time without even prior notice.
sigh, I pushed away my other stuff just to attend this meeting. =(
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I was there but could not get the sound. What would be nice in a next session is to watch Ellis or Keith playing at a live casino. Explaining each decisions; which system to play, which progression,when changing of system using SAP and OR , stop win , stop loss. I think it is what every members are expecting.
Agreed, that will be a more effective approach.
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All,
I swear I'm going to bookmark this particular link and have it available as an instant post!!
Papjoe's excellent explanation of the SAP chart and how to track it can be found here.
http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5698&p=19664#post19664
In fact, I did just bookmark it as I'm sure the question will eventually come up again multiple times in the new year!
MVS
Hmm... Papjoe counts each 4s or more as 4 points, the same as 3s, but in the System 40 manual (pg 7), Ellis counts it as 8 points. So which one should I follow?
Thanks.
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in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Great work there witchygal, I always enjoy seeing people wining money out of casinos for obvious reasons: they are evil in disguised.
But I'd like to share with you my little experience. I joined this forum a year ago and bought the S40 membership as soon as it was released. I went through the learning curve as well as witnessing all the modifications by Sir Ellis in an attempt to fine tune it. I must say he's definitely an intelligent guru and extremely patient towards his fellow members be it experts or beginners. I felt the money was well spent based solely on this fact. At least there's someone to comfort me on those bad days right... haha.
So how did I do? Not very well I must admit. I don't blame Ellis and BTC though, despite my efforts in practicing table selection, OR count, SAP charts, lose limits and personal experiences from Ellis (such as morning new card preps and the history of previous shoes), the trend in RWS is simply too unpredictable. It fluctuates so often one simply loses the confidence to continue. You'd be extremely lucky to find a shoe that presents consistent bias. Perhaps S40 isn't really RWS-friendly. I did ask for help via the posts in private forum, although fellow members were kind enough to cheer me up which I was grateful, most of the answers and advises I received were simply to "look for a biased shoe". I felt they had missed my points. I distant myself from this forum 2 months later in disappointment. It wasn't until recently I revisited this once familiar forum from an email informing me the latest creation from Ellis, the NOR.
The shoes you selected were extremely rare, witchygal. In fact, they are so rare it'd attract large crowd in no time, and basic chop methods could easily beat it. I too had those lucky days and they are indeed some of my most glorious moment. As time goes on, you'd notice majority of the shoes are in fact not so favorable. As Ellis has always said, don't be carried away by these successful days for you'd soon find yourself in predicament if discipline is not exercised.
Perhaps we should play together and exchange our views.
As for NOR, I suspect it would be too different from S40 and that's the reason I'm still observing. After all, I've paid USD230 for S40, I don't think it's worth to pay another USD600 for a similar approach.