brad01

Knew these 2 thoughts may cause some discussion About an event that hasn't happened: I agree that by the end of a shoe most events have happened at least once. Problem is you just don't know when or even if they will Therefore based on history I would prefer to assume the event wont happen and focus on what is happening and bet on that. Of course what is happening is not going to happen forever and so you would often be best to pull your bets with a profit than bet it till you lose as flat bet even 1 unit hurts I accept there are situations and players who can pick events that haven't happened and bet on them. But my thoughts are they are 1 bet win or lose its 1 shot. Pick what's happening and potentially it could keep happening and you ride it for a profit. McVince and W2F come to mind as players who can pick events that haven't happened or are overdue to occur and bet on those. About the DAMN good reason to go against the count this probably doesn't apply the more advanced a player you are but always good to go back to basics. If banker is ahead by a count of 10 then it has won 10 more than player so going with what has happened you would assume a bet on banker would be better than 50/50 but what about when the count starts to even up? there is always exceptions but going with the bias and betting that what has happened will continue this applies. For beginners its probably a good way to go

If the PB count favours player then you better have a DAMN good reason to bet on banker If the OR count favours opposites then you better have a DAMN good reason to bet on repeats. If the ...... count.. - you get the idea

If it hasn't happened yet then history says don't bet it will. If it has happened then history says it could happen again.

Would you like to order? $99 postage. send me a cheque. thanks in advance

This one also came highly recommended by Oz: 'Negative Progressions For Baccarat' by B.R. Gone

1. 'Double Or Nothing' by Martin Gale 2. 'The Holy Grail Baccarat System' by Conn Mann 3. 'Learn To Play Baccarat in 1 Hour and Quit Your Day Job' by Will B. Broke

The casinos give you the pb count on the tote board - use it!

I remember this one from a few years ago see if you can guess who said it: Geez guys its a 50/50 game. If you flat bet you will win 50% of your bets. If you cant use everything on this forum to gain you a better than 50% edge you simply aren't putting in the hard work and best be finding something else to do with your nights!!

Just make sure you don't lose and winning will take care of itself

I thing I know what W2F is talking about. Coming from the West Coast of Australia you would be surprised but we actually have a pretty good casino West Australia has 2 things going for it: It has a massive amount of natural resources - Gas, Iron Ore, Gold and so on so the economy is usually pretty good with a lot of fly in / fly out workers on big salaries and after working a hard 2 - 4 weeks on the mines they are bored and don't mind going to the casino, getting drunk and throwing some of their money away. The other thing is, it is the closest to Asia so the flights are short and cheap for all the rich Indonesians, Malaysians, Singaporeans, Thai's etc They come here to for business and to play at the casino Its owned by James Packer who is a billionaire and he spares no expense with it Just opened a 6 star hotel there (the only 1 in Australia I believe) and the new sports stadium is a stones throw away. Its not just a casino but an entertainment complex and you can walk in and the sky's the limit you can play big $$ hands and nobody will blink because they can cover their losses and hold out till they win it back. I daresay the casino you are talking about does not have that amount of money invested in it or to fall back on so you always have to ask how bad will it hurt them if you start to win only a moderate amount ?

Here is an interesting story Kimo Li (roulette guru) told me: Back quite a few years ago I played at a small casino with only 1 roulette table I played a couple of spins and picked a sector that looked like repeating I was playing with 0.2 chips and I hit a number straight up - I had 16 chips on it My payout was $112 The guy closed the table and said that's it! I said what do you mean that's it? He said I own this table therefore I am the bank. This is a small community casino with license. We all own the individual games and you just won more than I have made recently so I cant afford to keep the table open !! Then he asked me: do you want to rent the roulette table off me and run it???! I said what the hell and walked out

From a business point of view its actually very smart And everyone who's been in business knows that the guys who are absolutely brutal and can take peoples money with no conscience even if it means misleading them make the most money in that particular industry The business we are talking about is selling systems not casino trading or casino playing like we do here The business model: Make up a strategy that tracks certain variables and trends and make up a story as to why the casinos are vulnerable to these Market the system and sell it to people via a website or forum Offer add ons and seminars at additional costs. Produce hand picked shoes which win that particular strategy and show play by plays using them When people come up with losing stories and shoes that lose belittle them as to how they didn't play it exactly right and show how they could have won Ban them if they continue to disagree Produce a new system that tracks different variables and trends and explain why due to the success of the previous system the casinos have manufactured their cards and countered it. But in the process have left themselves vulnerable to the new method which of course comes at an additional cost And so the cycle continues - A VISCIOUS CYCLE !!! HELL OF A LOT EASIER THAN PLAYING 8000 SHOES AND BUILDING UP YOUR BR TO PLAY HIGH UNITS AND MAKING CONSTANT TRIPS TO THE CASINO AND BACK TRYING TO STAY UNDER THE RADAR AS YOU PRETTY MUCH DONT NEED TO LEAVE YOUR HOME!

You have a play by play you did for one of my crown casino shoes as well so we will have to drag that up and repost it also.

I forgot my favourite - The Mirror image: P231111211321267 32123 The 1 is the mirror point I sometimes bet with the mirror but if I choose not to I never bet against it I cant explain it but shoes have a weird tendency for this to happen usually at least once It often goes against all existing biases running

To divide banker and player P21121227 B3111316 Straight away you can see the tendency of the player to generate 1's and 2's apart form the 7 at the end banker is generating 1's and 3's apart from the 7 at the end If we look at it combined I see the start of an OTBL trigger of 23 which does not hold It goes into an opposite bias of 1111211 The we have another blip of an OTBL trigger which actually holds a little: 3212 Then we have an obvious repeat bias of 67 Some other less obvious things to note: ZZ events: 2642322 Long events followed by short events Multiple clumps: 23 2 32 267 2 1 2 3 Predominantly multiple A 23 pattern: 232322 An MDB+ trigger - 2 x 3's followed by a 3+ Even Odd events E O E O E E E O and there are no doubt many more trends and patterns others will see that I cant

My first impressions too But if you think of the concept of artificial intelligence (maybe what this guy Dean needs) its a computer trying to copy a human brain Maybe artificial randomness is a computer trying copy a human shuffle Now we just need to define random ?

Hi Dani, I like tho think of it as a series of trends or patterns. They can be anything you like: Player or Banker, Opposite or Repeat, OTBL vs TBL. High vs Low, Odd vs Even, Banker producing 2+ events, Player producing 2+ events, both sides producing 2+ events - make your own trends up. It does not really matter they are all trends or patterns and they will all be hot, cold or warm and will constantly change. So with experience you can determine form the shoe you are playing what trends to use and what trends are easy to predict. So yes this is bias because never can all trends be perfectly balanced at once. So if you do not have the experience to see a trend occurring that is easy to predict then you should not make a bet. You must wait until you see a trend you know that is predictable and then you can place a bet You may be wrong or right and if you are wrong you must be able to determine how far to follow it before you accept that you were wrong and the bias changed. If you are right then obviously you can keep betting hoping that the trend or pattern will continue. Whether you play it out until 1 loss, 2 losses, or until the point that you determine that you would like to lock in a profit before it changes. Then you do the same again If you are not sure then wait - 1 hand can be a big difference to be able to see a change From my experience you should aim to predict a trend that is forming rather than try to jump on an obvious one that has already played out for a good number of hands You know that stock your friend made a lot of money off and you decide to buy but the market cycle has peaked and you have missed the boat?

Hi mjmtong good post and pretty much what Oz has been saying for years stop looking around for the HG and put in the hard yards. If you want to achieve what he has then don't ask him to teach you his magic system just out in the time and you will get there. Is he a madman? no of course not ! Hes a disciplined self motivated guy who set a goal he thought he could achieve and he got there with hard work for the sake of his family Hes a motivator and hero to many of us on the forum and if I could design the casinos worst enemy it would probably be a guy much like Oz! Although I definitely think he's getting softer in his old age. I was too scared to talk to him before he went MIA a few years ago after seeing some of the posts to the tyre kickers on the public forum!

Hi Dani, My comment it all comes back to the fact that this is a 50/50 game Whatever strategy you play the house edge is very small and its a 50% game So you will have deviations above and below 50% when you play but on average it will be 50% If you walk in to a casino and you have a winning game then you have hit a positive deviation above 50% and if you quit right then - then you avoid the circumstance of hitting a counter negative deviation and giving it back For a player who cannot get their average above 50% that is a good strategy - to walk in with a stop loss and stick to it and then hopefully hit a positive deviation above 50% and quit (really a stop win) For those players like Oz, way2fast, McVince, wolfat, Pando, CT70, kachatz, and others their average hit rate is above 50% so they don't need to worry about a stop win / stop loss AS MUCH because on average their hit rate could be as high as 65% so as long as they play they will on average win. It all comes back to getting your hit rate above 50%

No hes a madman

there's no such thing as a random shoe. It just means you have not identified the right trends to characterise it

I would say McVinces post was the one you are referring to. i believe that's how he plays. suggest to ask him he mentions the Parx is is home ground. No idea where that is. never been to USA before

Your a madman

Rather than ask yourself 'should I bet on this.' ask yourself 'why should I NOT bet on this'

a short sentence or phrase that comes to you which you feel is really helpful to yourself and others