no3bet

Hey Kevin, really appreciated your comments. I thought that were no interest at all to pursue the simulator. I therefore did not really continue the development and went back to my regular business and spend my time and interest there. Regards, AYS

You guys were great joining BTC earlier. I could have never found those links or information about TWIST after I joined - a big complaint to Keith as I always wonder what is it all about of which I once tried to search the entire website for its rules and discussions. Grandfather discussions at BTC of any kind should never be removed or deleted. They are always the "pot of gold" we have been looking or since CCWR time.

Your advice is already worth half a million dollar of the whole MDB program. Winning at the casino is a matter of money management and self discipline. The rest of winning skill is just a matter of luck and playing with a system (and a better system like MDB+ or NOR) better than no system. True honest advice.... Best of Luck to all BTC members and mature audience.

Correction! Column title "SAP play notes" should read "MDB play notes". AYS

Dear All, While I am trying to carry on the Simulator by combining progs into one final MDB betting progs, I have encountered problems that the resulting prog may not perform well after switching. If we take a look at the attached sample, both S1 and S4+ would achieve the +5 goal but the resulting prog will not. Can somebody point us where may we improve or correct such situation? By the way, I have tested all the sample shoes attached with Version 1 simulator. With of the 38 shoes attached plus GMAN sample shoe, 14 out of the 39 testes will achieve +5 goal. Very Best Regards, AYS MDB_Auto_V2.pdf MDB_Auto_V2.pdf

Dear Ellis, Now that we have our Version 1 simulator playing S1, S23, S4+ guided by SAP. I am carrying on to prepare my Version 2 of this simulator. During the programming period, I could really feel that it is rather different when you are playing mechanically instead of realtime human interaction. As a result, our conventional secondary betting methods as well as OTR handling may need a review. My suggestion is that our secondary bets and OTR handling may be set up as another independent betting prog within spread sheet also guide by SAP. Our final bet placement will then be the result of amalgamating all different Progs together to become the best betting decision placement with the highest winning possibility. As such we must again defined clear rules for the MDB Mechanical Betting Engine. In order to make a start here are my suggestions for your follow up corrections: 1. S1, S23 and S4 bets placement will follow prior rules and guided by SAP up to Current Event 3s (Column Ce=3). 2. If 1s is lowest or at LC we bet 1s will go 2s (S23 played). 3. If 2s is at lowest or at LC, we bet 2s will go to 3s (S4+ played). 4. When 2s is highest or at MC with neither 3s nor 4s is non-zero, we bet 2s will always stay 2s except after 3 or more (up to 7) sporadic 2s that we bet 2s will continue to 3s. 5. When 2s is neither LC or MC, we bet there will be no 4 2s before there is a 3s. S4+ secondary betting rules will be used. 6. When 4 consecutive 2s, 3s or 4s are clustered follow by an unconfirmed 1s, we bet there will be no 5th consecutive 2s/3s/4s clustering element and that our unconfirmed 1s will stay 1s (this is a one time bet). 7. When 3s is zero we bet 3s will always go 4s. 8. When 3s is non-zero and is smaller than 4s+, we bet there is no 3 3s before there is a 4s using our S1 secondary betting rule. 9. When 3s is highest or at MC with NO 4s/+, we bet 3s will always stay 3s. 10. When 3s occurs and is neither LC nor MC, S23 play rules will apply meaning S23 bet 2 will be placed. 11. When 4s occurs, rules for S23 secondary bet will follow. 12. The rest of 5s/+ OTR rules will follow per prior betting rules. Take notice that the above are only a reflection of my own personal observations. Please do not follow them unless after Ellis would verify and correct them. Very Best Regards, AYS

Dear All, I am ready for my first posting. Here is the program and please read this entire posting before use. This is not yet a fully completed version. I am saving the final combined betting until after enough members have tried out this first version MDB Auto Betting Program with modification and suggestions necessary. Then my wish is to perform a poll of opinions on how should we combine our betting of all different Progs (S1,S23,S4+ and SAP or more to be added) into one straight and robust winning prog. Please try out the program and let me know how you like it and or have it modify to perfect it. Programming Notes: Programming conventions (Important, must follow to understand how program place bets): 1. When a betting entry is MINUS (-) betting is on BANKER. 2. When a betting entry is PLUS (+) betting is on PLAYER. 3. If a bet wins highlight is RED, if a bet lose highlight is BLUE. 4. When you copy and paste any data into Column B, please make sure you paste it with the “Paste Value†option. Program Prog selection Switches: 1. At Columnn Y Row 2, there is a program switch set up highlighted with RED fill. You may set this value for varies program play option: (a) Switch value = 1: Only S1 and SAP will play ( Switch value = 2: Only S23 and SAP will play © Switch value = 4: Only S4+ and SAP will play (d) Switch value = 7: Auto switch between S1, s23 and s4+ with SAP played (e) Switch value = 8: Only SAP will play (f) Switch value = 9: All Progs S1, S23, S4+ and SAP will play Programming defaults: 1. SAP count does not include first event. 2. Betting starts as soon as play #3 for all S1, S23 and S4+. 3. SAP does not start betting until after 6 plays. 4. SAP posting is immediate as soon as 4s or plus is confirmed. This means 4s+ event will establish and enter into SAP table as soon as 4s emerges. 5. First version of program will bet 5s+ stays on 1st appearance. Subsequent betting will rely on previous streak length. All 7s or above continue to 1 lose. Programming Definitions: 1. When system switches to S23, there will be at least 2 bets played before any further switching. This is because S23 is really designed as a 2 or more bets system. 2. 1s high means SAP1 > max(SAP2,SAP3,SAP4) – S4M3 is played with SW=4. 3. 1s becomes high means [(current SAP1 > last SAP1) and (SAP1 = max(SAP2,SAP3,SAP4)] –> S1 is played with SW=1. 4. 2s high means SAP2 > max(SAP1,SAP3,SAP4) –> S23 is played with SW=2. 5. 2s becomes high means [(current SAP2 > last SAP2) and (SAP2 = max(SAP1,SAP3,SAP4)] –> S23 is played with SW=2. 6. 3s high means SAP3 > max(SAP1,SAP2,SAP4) –> S23 is played with SW=2. 7. 3s becomes high means [(current SAP3 > last SAP3) and (SAP3 = max(SAP1,SAP2,SAP4)] –> S23 is played with SW=2. 8. Ellis Notes – Once S23, mode 2 or 2 plays must be made before any further system switching is allowed. Meaning SAP1 has not bumped up by 2 and at the same time SAP4 has not been increased. 9. 4s high means SAP3 > max(SAP1,SAP2,SAP3) – S4+ is played with SW=4. 10. 4s becomes high means AND [OR((current SAP4 > last SAP4),cSAP>=4),(SAP4 = max(SAP1,SAP2,SAP3)] –> S4+ is played with SW=4. 11. When 1s and 2s are tied –> S1 is played with SW=1. 12. When 1s and 3s are tied –> S1 is played with SW=1. 13. When 2s and 3s are tied with none of them being zero –> S23 is played with SW=2. 14. When 1s and 4s+ are tied -> S4+ is played with SW=4. 15. When 3s and 4s+ are tied -> S4+ is played with SW=4. So please play with it and have fun! Very Best Regards, AYS MDB_Auto_V1P.xlsx

Oh yes, you are correcting my online reply fast typing mistake again. The correct S4M3 prog should be 1020123. AYS

Yes, S40M3 would be 102 as primary prog and 123 is the secondary prog. Therefore the correct prog would be 102123. AYS

Sorry for my mistake. S4M1 prog is 10123 and S4M3 prog is 102123 AYS

Try that with S4M3 12102 prog replacing S4M1 12123 prog may solve all these shoes. AYS

To me S40M3 with 102 prog would be a more appealing system to use instead of S4 especially at shoe starts. My experience is that 2s and 3s are the most uncertain events until after either of them has became stable. When that happens it would be clear to us whether it is to play S1 or S23. When 2s has the highest count, S23 is for sure is the system for me. When 1s and 3s are at high counts with 3s count much greater than 2s, I would always bet 2s will go 3 following the SAP LC rule. Now that if 2s count is higher than 3s or becoming high, my observation is that it is most of the time the 4th unconfirmed 2s will go to 3s. However this is not always certain. A great percentage of the shoes will have 2s dominating over 3s and when that happens it makes our secondary prog a fool of itself when we bet every other 2s will go 3s. Therefore in my opinion our SP betting rule is mediocre between 2s and 3s causing all the confusion and unconfidence. So my favorite way to play primary prog would be switching between either S1 or S23. S4M3 would be an optional play when 3s are high. It may be more efficient to place our secondary prog of S4M3 on no 4 3s before there is a 4s instead of no 4 2s before there is a 3s. It would also cover our ass of playing S23 at an unconfirmed 3s. This is because we can only have one of the 1s 2s high (S1), 2s 3s high (S23) or 1s 3s high (S4M3). Playing S1 would already cover the purpose of SP betting there is no 4 2s before there is a 3s. We do that when 2s SAP count is higher than 3s. And then S23 would have no issue for the flip flopping 2s and 3s as it kills them all. S23 takes care of everything when 2s is competing with 3s. Now then it is the high 3s with the pitfall of it going 4s is our problem. When that happens often, we leave the S23 system and go S4M3 instead. SAP would tell us to do that also. Now that what about when S4M3 goes higher to 5s, 6s and 7s? It is certainly our S4 system OTR playing SAP going by the MC rules. At an unconfirmed 5s or 6s I would be very careful and bet opposite if OR count is positive or no less than -3. If OR count favors repeat I would bet both 5s and 6s would go higher. When 7s occurs I bet 7s will go 8s no matter what the OR count is. Would Ellis verify my above observation can be valid and logical? If it does, I need to continue my programming accordingly. What is puzzling me is the rule “1’s and 3s is S1â€. Good Luck everybody! AYS

Dear All, Sorry for the delays. I just want to let you know that I am indeed working on the programming of this simulator. I am just a busy man with a full time business to operate as well as playing at casino often. I will try to post something before Monday. Good Luck to everybody. AYS

Yes Master, Your are the Boss and we are at your disposal waiting for your instructions. AYS

Pardon me if I am wrong. We can only win when the shoe is bias. When our PP is winning the shoe is bias and when our SP is winning the shoe is also showing a bias. Even when we go for Runs and win is a result of bias as well. What is causing us to lose are inconsistence MC. To me the +5 is just trying to sort out bias and separate betting them after either first, second or forth liners. Have a try with this shoe: B 111153136 P 1114112213 P 4131113113142 Do you think this is random? Now try to beat it with the 3 +5 programs. AYS

The Secondary prog is set up more like a short implementation of Matingale. Same as the 1,2 primary prog. We are counter betting events that is not likely to happen again. SAP would tell us one way or the other. AYS

Here is some of my collection on SAP. It is unfortunate that such system is almost forgotten nowadays. AYSSAP Tracking.pdf

Dear Ellis, Personally I concur with you 100% with the necessity of tracking SAP. From my first day of joining BTC it was your theory on “Shoe Bias†that I or we all believe and have been following. That’s the whole principal and reasons of playing the NOR way. No other gambling theory or website in this world teaches the way you have been teaching us. In my mind or we all know that there would be no system that can beat any shoe without tracking bias. Otherwise it would be similar as you have just said recently such a system is like a gun without the need of aiming. In Baccarat we can only play “Follow†as any prediction system will just not work. Now that whether it is necessary to create a SAP table in real time or not is just a matter of experience in playing NOR. Most of us (at least myself) do not need a SAP table as you can simply follow the tote board real time that already told us all the information. However inside our mind the SAP method of play has always been used and followed. Whether people follow them by road map or superstitious, what’s important is that it is yourself who has systemized the Baccarat events trend into SAP table that counts and it's a Science by itself. The problems of today’s pre-shuffled cards are that BTC old style SAP table has been outdated. The counting up to 5’s is just not reliable anymore. Whether we shall upgrade our counts to 6’s or 7’s or shall we separate B&P counts into separate columns will rely on your professional experience with advice and teach us. I remember there was a post earlier asking about whether to quit or stay after achieving +5, it immediately came into my mind that the only reason to stay after +5 will depend upon how consistent MC counts have been and that was my response to it. In today’s shoes, MC is simply unstable and our old SAP table counting up to 5’s can neither predict nor is it as useful as before. And it is probably the reasons and needs behind for your creation of this MDB program with set up of secondary prog for the countering. In my view the casino in addition to sporadic one’s and two’s have also done a real good job on creating inconsistent MC events. Now that at BTC our entire betting concept is on events rather than just P and B. Inconsistent MC events is what exactly taking our bank rolls away. They are worse than sporadic one’s and two’s as our F system may just barely handles them as we often cannot predict where the hell is our SS going. Anyway my suggestion is that we must contemplate and design a system using SAP as our guide to handle both streak and ZZ runs for MDB. SAP will systemize the MDB +5 program and completes it. It seems annoying to track at a first glance. However it would just be the same as you have meant to say before that after some cycle of practice there is not even a need of using score card to play the MDB systems. Nevertheless we do need the rules of system defined. The addition of tracking SAP counting is just not the same as 4D. We can all track them in our heart after practicing as recordings have all been done by the tote board already. Good Luck to all the BTC members… Very Best Regards, AYS

Hello GolfGirl, I hope I may help to answer your questions while saving time for Ellis for some other better strategy to teach us. Attach here is a my sample play of Gman72’s practice shoe. I have provided with all the comments for each play and highlighted all the secondary bet (SP) with “light green†for Steak and “light brown†for ZZ. You can see there is a difference of plays between Gman and myself (Hand 42 and hand 62 – yellow highlighted). This is due to our variation on favor of handling runs. My preference is to continue OTR (after 6’s and 6 ZZ) until loses but Gman got off at his determination point. In this case you may see his way of handling runs performs better for this particular shoe. To answer your questions: #1: Play 26 is a zero test bet for ZZ run. Play 10 zero test bet is for ST run. The two different ST and ZZ runs are handled with separate TEST bet. #2: Play 45 bet Banker (ZZ ATR) because hand 26 zero bet was a win. It is a continuation of SP 0123 progression after the zero test bet at hand 26. A winning test bet will cause the subsequent SP to bet ATR. Note again each ST and ZZ run are handled separately (ZZ to ZZ and ST to ST). #3: Play 46 – 56 are PP bets as hand 45 after winning ends the ATR run. So we bet PP OT for hands 46 to 56 inclusive. #4: Play 57 (bet 2 of 0123 progression) increases to 2 bet because hand 39 was lost (bet 1 of SP 0123 progression). Note again the ST SP bets are handled separately from ZZ SP bet. Therefore do not mix up Play 57 with Play 45 of which is the SP bet for ZZ. #5: Play 60 bet ZERO because play 57 SP won the bet. When a SP wins, it resets subsequent SP bet back to ZERO and do test betting again. Note our progression is 120123 and it recycles after a win. In this case play 57 bet 2 won and reset SP back to zero causing play 60 to bet zero. #6: Play 61 is a PP bet. All secondary bets are for 1 bet. We apply SP only to RUNS as they arise. That is after we lose two consecutive PP bets (hands 58 and 59 for example). In this shoe our SP are hands 10, 26, 39, 45, 57 and 60. I hope the above helps. AYS BaOTB_Compare.pdf

Hello Gman72, In your BaOTB4L plays, hand 61 continues ZZ OTR and betted Opposite. Shouldn’t hand 61 continues ZZ and bet Opposite as well or are you just following the Run length of 6 ZZ’s per hand 22 to 27? AYS

Dear Gman72, You are indeed a great contributor. Can you also play BaOTB4L for that shoe Ellis originally played with S40M1 (Post 23 under the Intro thread)? It will be a great discussion shoe for all of us. B294221 B1132111211132 B211211412131 P1111 = 64 plays Best Regards, AYS

Hey Gman, You are not suppose to do that! You are going Way2Fast! Master Ellis is not going to like you! LOL...LOL AYS

Hello FrontAl, Thank you for your attention. I agree with you fully that TBL is a better terminology to use for BaOTB4L and phrase both Streak and ZZ. It would be much comfortable to realize at handling of the two different runs. You have some good thoughts and I must try it. Best of Luck…. AYS

That was really nice. However while we are still waiting for Ellis instructions, I wonder how did you handle RUNs for the BaOTB4L? Can you also share with us your experience? a) Tested Streak meets with another Streak or ZZ Tested ZZ meets with another ZZ or Streak

I think I may have a better suggestion to answer of this question. For myself I would stay on playing as long as MC counts remain consistent. AYS