Emeraldeagle

Can you explain randomness and long term fluctuation and how it relates to my situation?

This afternoon I headed on down to Seminole Hard Rock in Tampa. I've been practicing a few weeks and have been able to secure 12 chip captures in practice. I sit down at 3rd base at a 3 player $25 table, one gets up while I sit down so the player number stays at 3. This is nearing the end of the shoe but I sit down anyway because I notice the dealer breaking and the cards are adequately clumped. I test the water and I'm doing good enough to go for a 1-2-3. I get a double down bet and a blackjack on a 2 bet. Dealer is breaking and the other players are happy. I'm up 6 units by the end of the shoe. Finally, it's happening the way it does in practice. But then, what's this? The dealer drops a few cards on the table while taking the cards out of the discard rack. She calls the pit boss over to alert him as to what happened. The pit boss and dealer get close and she mutters "You want me to do a half shuffle?" He nods. She shuffles the cards without the standard stutter shuffle. I continue betting the 1-2-3 progression and I lose. I lose a double down and I just can't seem to win. I am down to 10 chips and I'm getting out of there. I should have tested the water with a 1-1-2. I noticed orchestration happening but I didn't alter my play based on it. Won't forget this lesson, it cost $200. I head on over to a different table and sit at 3rd. I get a 14 with a dealer up card of 4. Lows are running. I hit. Everyone looks at me like I have 3 heads. Out comes a 3 for 17. Dealer turns up a 10 card then, picture perfect bust. Celebrations all around! I keep going with the 1-1-2. I lose a double down on the 2 bet. Now I am down to 6 units, $150. Time for poker! I get up to around $205 and figure that's enough to scout the $15 tables. $15 dollar tables have continuos shuffle machines, hate those. I get a blackjack as soon I sit at 3rd base. And that's where good fortune ends. I lose a 1-1-2 progression. On the 2 bet I see 10s running for an obvious insurance bet. Dealer doesn't have a 10, but first hit card is a 10. Hole card has to be high though, so I risk a break and hit, I break. Dealer flips up a 9. Sometimes it just seems the "gods have conspired against me." So, after all expenses, this trip cost me $200.50. So what did I learn for $200.50? Don't risk doubles while testing the water, especially if it's a 3rd bet in a negative progression. That and what I mentioned earlier about the shuffle interference. Also, I'm sure I'm not trying to read the dealer's hole card as often as I should be. In the heat of the game I'm watching the card flow and basing my hit or stand decisions based only on how it will affect me. A shortcut I'm taking in my brain is looking at card flow and up card and deciding whether to use basic strategy or not. I should be basing all my decisions on whether my action will break the dealer. Surrender is not offered so might as well.

Very nice!!! I liked the Donald Trump joke. Once I get blackjack comfortably under my belt I'm taking a fresh look at baccarat again.

Went back today. Couple hours later this time. Found a first base game and won $200. The worm was turning as I was going for a 12 chip capture, so I left.

Another thing. I also learned playing table games doesn't get any comp dollars. So, do I have a player's card you ask? Nope, I'm just a tourist.

So bet table minimum until I start getting the first card tens as predicted?

This morning I headed on down to Tampa Seminole Hard Rock. I've only beaten it once with a 3rd base positive progression bet (before getting materials here), but then I gave it back like a regular sucker. I arrive a little after 10, card prep is at 7 so the cards should be somewhat clumped. There are a few empty tables with dealers getting ready for late morning early afternoon crowd, the rest are closed. I find a $25 8 deck table with 3 players. First base seat is open, current first base player is getting lots of first card 10s with comfortable predictability and dealer is breaking. Huzzah!!! I sit down saying I'll join next shoe. After the shoe is over, 2 of the players leave, but then they come back after visiting Mr. ATM while the dealer is shuffling making player number 4. The shuffle is exactly the same as the demonstration video. I see lows running after the hand is over so I put up 1 unit. Boom, first card 10 and I win. I see 10s running at the end of the roun, let it ride and get a first card 3. I lose. Every time 10s were running and I put up my big bet, I get ***** slapped with a low card and every time lows were running and I put up a small bet I get a first card 10 and win. Table not doing good so I go find another. 2 players, dealer breaking, 3rd base open so I sit. $25 8 deck hand shuffle table. I get 2 20s in a row and win. Great. But then same problem with last table. Lows finish their run right as they get to me and I end up busting. I stop playing for the day and spend a couple hours table watching. I notice that between noon and 13:00 is when there are much more tables with 2 and 3 players. I don't have the confidence yet to go head to head, I haven't practiced that way. So what happened? The pros here can correct me and fill anything I'm missing. By playing I increased the number of players more than the optimum level for that particular game. I made good tables go bad. It might seem like I'm bad luck, but the cards weren't clumped enough to support another player. What I have learned: There were plenty of $15 tables open (6 deck, continuous shuffle), I also saw a $25 6 deck hand shuffle section and 2 deck section, go for those. It's too bad I only noticed those after I quit playing. Next time I will get an early lunch and head there early afternoon since there appears to be more opportunity at that time. Any advice from the pros here? I have NBJ and WCB.

Not usually. I enjoy the satisfaction of taking the dealer's good cards and beating her that way, more often than seeing her bust (double entendre for the win) because I'm able to read those situations now and make it my advantage, I just haven't been able to see a high TR as a distinct advantage yet. When I have a high TR what usually happens are those clean sweeps where everyone gets a 10, then get a small card. I'll keep practicing and hopefully soon my eyes will be opened. Ellis and the manual haven't given me a reason to doubt it yet.

Hopefully I can ask this question here without giving too much away. For some reason I seem to win a lot more in low TR rounds as opposed to high. High TR rounds are supposed to be player favorable according to the manual, but in my practice I lose more of these rounds but I win enough of the low rounds with negative progression that I still end up ahead. I'm playing 3rd base in practice. If you can't answer without giving too much away then PM me.

If basic strategy teaches to assume the dealer's hole card is a ten, why does it teach never to insure?

And what methods do casinos use to counter counting?

Hmm. If the casino is trying to get me to change my mind then I'll stay.

Oh ok. Didn't realize it was a different Seminole HR. The one in Tampa (the only one I really have any access to) is atrocious for baccarat. Invested in the wrong manual.

That's the same casino I go to. Was this in the high stakes room or the room sardine-packed with Asians?