Emeraldeagle

Can you explain randomness and long term fluctuation and how it relates to my situation?

This afternoon I headed on down to Seminole Hard Rock in Tampa. I've been practicing a few weeks and have been able to secure 12 chip captures in practice. I sit down at 3rd base at a 3 player $25 table, one gets up while I sit down so the player number stays at 3. This is nearing the end of the shoe but I sit down anyway because I notice the dealer breaking and the cards are adequately clumped. I test the water and I'm doing good enough to go for a 1-2-3. I get a double down bet and a blackjack on a 2 bet. Dealer is breaking and the other players are happy. I'm up 6 units by the end of the shoe. Finally, it's happening the way it does in practice. But then, what's this? The dealer drops a few cards on the table while taking the cards out of the discard rack. She calls the pit boss over to alert him as to what happened. The pit boss and dealer get close and she mutters "You want me to do a half shuffle?" He nods. She shuffles the cards without the standard stutter shuffle. I continue betting the 1-2-3 progression and I lose. I lose a double down and I just can't seem to win. I am down to 10 chips and I'm getting out of there. I should have tested the water with a 1-1-2. I noticed orchestration happening but I didn't alter my play based on it. Won't forget this lesson, it cost $200. I head on over to a different table and sit at 3rd. I get a 14 with a dealer up card of 4. Lows are running. I hit. Everyone looks at me like I have 3 heads. Out comes a 3 for 17. Dealer turns up a 10 card then, picture perfect bust. Celebrations all around! I keep going with the 1-1-2. I lose a double down on the 2 bet. Now I am down to 6 units, $150. Time for poker! I get up to around $205 and figure that's enough to scout the $15 tables. $15 dollar tables have continuos shuffle machines, hate those. I get a blackjack as soon I sit at 3rd base. And that's where good fortune ends. I lose a 1-1-2 progression. On the 2 bet I see 10s running for an obvious insurance bet. Dealer doesn't have a 10, but first hit card is a 10. Hole card has to be high though, so I risk a break and hit, I break. Dealer flips up a 9. Sometimes it just seems the "gods have conspired against me." So, after all expenses, this trip cost me $200.50. So what did I learn for $200.50? Don't risk doubles while testing the water, especially if it's a 3rd bet in a negative progression. That and what I mentioned earlier about the shuffle interference. Also, I'm sure I'm not trying to read the dealer's hole card as often as I should be. In the heat of the game I'm watching the card flow and basing my hit or stand decisions based only on how it will affect me. A shortcut I'm taking in my brain is looking at card flow and up card and deciding whether to use basic strategy or not. I should be basing all my decisions on whether my action will break the dealer. Surrender is not offered so might as well.

Very nice!!! I liked the Donald Trump joke. Once I get blackjack comfortably under my belt I'm taking a fresh look at baccarat again.

Went back today. Couple hours later this time. Found a first base game and won $200. The worm was turning as I was going for a 12 chip capture, so I left.

Another thing. I also learned playing table games doesn't get any comp dollars. So, do I have a player's card you ask? Nope, I'm just a tourist.

So bet table minimum until I start getting the first card tens as predicted?

This morning I headed on down to Tampa Seminole Hard Rock. I've only beaten it once with a 3rd base positive progression bet (before getting materials here), but then I gave it back like a regular sucker. I arrive a little after 10, card prep is at 7 so the cards should be somewhat clumped. There are a few empty tables with dealers getting ready for late morning early afternoon crowd, the rest are closed. I find a $25 8 deck table with 3 players. First base seat is open, current first base player is getting lots of first card 10s with comfortable predictability and dealer is breaking. Huzzah!!! I sit down saying I'll join next shoe. After the shoe is over, 2 of the players leave, but then they come back after visiting Mr. ATM while the dealer is shuffling making player number 4. The shuffle is exactly the same as the demonstration video. I see lows running after the hand is over so I put up 1 unit. Boom, first card 10 and I win. I see 10s running at the end of the roun, let it ride and get a first card 3. I lose. Every time 10s were running and I put up my big bet, I get ***** slapped with a low card and every time lows were running and I put up a small bet I get a first card 10 and win. Table not doing good so I go find another. 2 players, dealer breaking, 3rd base open so I sit. $25 8 deck hand shuffle table. I get 2 20s in a row and win. Great. But then same problem with last table. Lows finish their run right as they get to me and I end up busting. I stop playing for the day and spend a couple hours table watching. I notice that between noon and 13:00 is when there are much more tables with 2 and 3 players. I don't have the confidence yet to go head to head, I haven't practiced that way. So what happened? The pros here can correct me and fill anything I'm missing. By playing I increased the number of players more than the optimum level for that particular game. I made good tables go bad. It might seem like I'm bad luck, but the cards weren't clumped enough to support another player. What I have learned: There were plenty of $15 tables open (6 deck, continuous shuffle), I also saw a $25 6 deck hand shuffle section and 2 deck section, go for those. It's too bad I only noticed those after I quit playing. Next time I will get an early lunch and head there early afternoon since there appears to be more opportunity at that time. Any advice from the pros here? I have NBJ and WCB.

Not usually. I enjoy the satisfaction of taking the dealer's good cards and beating her that way, more often than seeing her bust (double entendre for the win) because I'm able to read those situations now and make it my advantage, I just haven't been able to see a high TR as a distinct advantage yet. When I have a high TR what usually happens are those clean sweeps where everyone gets a 10, then get a small card. I'll keep practicing and hopefully soon my eyes will be opened. Ellis and the manual haven't given me a reason to doubt it yet.

Hopefully I can ask this question here without giving too much away. For some reason I seem to win a lot more in low TR rounds as opposed to high. High TR rounds are supposed to be player favorable according to the manual, but in my practice I lose more of these rounds but I win enough of the low rounds with negative progression that I still end up ahead. I'm playing 3rd base in practice. If you can't answer without giving too much away then PM me.

If basic strategy teaches to assume the dealer's hole card is a ten, why does it teach never to insure?

And what methods do casinos use to counter counting?

Hmm. If the casino is trying to get me to change my mind then I'll stay.

Oh ok. Didn't realize it was a different Seminole HR. The one in Tampa (the only one I really have any access to) is atrocious for baccarat. Invested in the wrong manual.

That's the same casino I go to. Was this in the high stakes room or the room sardine-packed with Asians?

Hello. Within the context of blackjack, what is the difference between hand and machine? My closest casino, Hard Rock in Tampa, only uses machine shuffling. Or I should say I've never once seen them use hand shuffling except in the poker room. I've seen so much clumping because the shoe (6 or 8, not entirely sure) is never played entirely through and the cards continue getting recirculated whenever the dealers switch out. Before a new table is about to open the cards are laid out and the pit boss is thumbing through them. What is he looking for? How does NBJ stand against these conditions?

Which Blackjack manual should I start with?

Monday afternoon I traveled 88 miles to the nearest casino, that being the Hard Rock in Tampa. Don't know if any of you have played baccarat there, but here's how it goes. There are 3 baccarat tables with $20 minimums, and these are the only ones available unless you want to go for the $40 tables or the ones in the high stakes room. Oh and one more thing: it's in an Asian palace theme room, presumably to herd all the Asians into one place. Mission accomprished in that respect. About the tables. Shoes are 8 decks, horizontal tote boards, machine shuffled, commission free (or so they say). If you bet banker and it's tie, rather than a push they take 25% of your stake. Also, for a genuine Hong Kong experience everyone has about 3 inches of personal space, English is forbidden, and players behind you clamor around asking to put their stake on your table spot. Here's what went down. Spoiler alert: it's not good. First table I started OTB4L3. I'm up 3 units and feeling rather good. My problems start when I switched to mode 1 instead of staying in mode 3. I hit my -8 stop loss and I'm down 5 units so I walk. Next shoe I played was a very strong F shoe. If I was playing online I would have massacred this shoe, but it's different when playing for real and surrounded by distracting foreigners. I'm -7 units on this table and I walk. Down 12 units for my first day out. Bad news is I seem to be making every conceivable mistake while learning, the good news is I'm learning discipline to walk away when hit the stop loss. The moral of the story is: don't play baccarat at Hard Rock Tampa unless you have the bankroll for the high stakes room. At least there are plenty of $25 blackjack tables with 6 deck machine shuffles. Better start saving my shekels for a blackjack manual, though I have no idea which one to get. My guess is the Zero Proximity NBJ but if I'm mistaken please let me know. In Odds We Trust

What do the letters U, D and M mean?

Thanks. By the way, what is Mode 1? Is that spooky NOR+ language? I haven't tackled NOR+ yet. I'm not one of those people who can drive before walking.

For some reason I seem to be getting lots of "Switch to F" shoes. Here's the latest. Ended +2 units. Didn't hit the +10 stop win and I didn't want to hit the stop loss. B 11121121214 P 1624213 I started S40 Mode 2 and by hand 21 I switched to F Mode 3. I saw it work out but then later I lost 3 in a row. The SS gradually shifted over to P. Didn't want to lose and was unsure of what to do so I walked. By the way, I should learn the progression betting but I'm having difficulty understanding it with the manual. Anyone care to lend a hand? I would appreciate it greatly.

Here's the latest shoe. Ended with a little over +20 units. It started out neutral but shifted to a strong F a little bit later. B 1122213417613 Glad I switched systems. Any other advice on what to do when you see a shoe like this? Is walking away better than sitting at a table like this?

Mr. Davis, this is the NOR forum. To answer your questions, yes I have the manual. The green worm with the glasses on page 11 is a nice touch. Would you like my invoice number for when I purchased it as well? I wasn't keeping track of how many times I studied it. Should I be? I have studied other posts by you which have been somewhat helpful in understanding modes. Gman's post was the first scorecard I have seen broken down, though if you could point me to the sample shoes I would be most grateful.

Wow gman. Thanks for putting in the effort if drawing it out and posting it. It makes more sense now. This isn't looking much like this now.http://youtube.com/watch?v=0oOD9U9VQ5Y

Just played another live online shoe. Great results. Ended up 16 units ahead mostly betting only 1 unit at a time win or lose. My goal is comprehension, I was just fortunate enough to see it manifested in winning. I played OTB4L the whole way through. I only lost 2x in a row only 1 time, which brings me to a couple questions and observations. 1. What am I supposed to do when I lose 2 in a row playing OTB4L? It worked out for me this time, beginner's luck perhaps. Here is how it played out in my shoe. PPBPBBP The 2nd P I bet and win. Next up, bet B and won. I bet B again but it turns up P (loss 1). No big deal, an opposite just happened so I'll bet a repeat on P, turns up B (loss 2). At this point I'm in damage control mode and following Mode 2 I go OTR for B. I win that bet, and I decide to jump Off The Run and go back to standard OTB4L and bet P. I win that and 2 more after it making it 3 wins in a row. 2. In hindsight I made the correct decision, but is that the usual correct thing to do? 3. Is OTB4L in Mode 3 by default?