pauld

Absolutely interested

And as always, dealers are humans, I have seen where a table caught a dealer cheating a couple different ways and I have seen where a dealer 'forgot' the correct 3rd card rule, etc., and I am sure that someone somewhere in a casino has played bacc shoes that have been shuffled by a shufflemaster, let's say 3 times, and know what sort of clumping that produces, etc. I am interested in whether the preshuffled are being advertised or provided as being a certain thing or orderable as such, or whether casinos have figured out a way to manipulate a shulfflemaster shuffler.

CT - perhaps some definition differences, but I would love to hear what has convinced you that 2,3,4 can actually happen and how it is done-did a casino employee outline how they create a shoe to do exactly what they want it to do? I'm not offended by what you said, but I don't agree with you. I happen to know that #2,#3 and #4 are real and happen all the time. This is a great point of how it is done. When I practiced Blackjack and observed the shuffle the thought that many of us had if the cards are random why did they change the shuffle what was the difference. Why did they add little twists like stripping the cards or different procedures, number of times shuffled etc. Why were they so concerned with placing the cards in the discard tray in the order they were left on the table etc. So i practiced the shuffle and the casino conditions, over the years dealt many games and shuffled new cards exactly like they did in the casino, I mimicked the card pick up procedure and low and behold I taught myself that if I followed this to a Tee and took small picks of cards and a tight close intertwine I could beat almost any strategy that someone was playing with a table full of players. I got so good at shuffling cards I could do a perfect faro shuffle. I would challenge people to let me shuffle the cards and you play and bet what ever you want and I will beat you. So I think that this phenomenon is real in conjunction with the card pick up procedure and how most people play. I would always deal in my practice games phantom players playing basic strategy. I set up games that whether you played count strategy or clump strategy the dealer was so strong you could not find a way to win, needless to say unless you bet 5k on one hand and got lucky. So what we should do now is practice Baccarat with real cards and conditions and see what happens with real cards. There are hand shuffled Baccarat Games and they start with BOX ordered cards do a wash, the same shuffle that the casino does and see if there is anything out of the ordinary. That would be a good starting point. To Paul's point it is one thing to say this happens quite another to reproduce how. Of course we have many games in Stats for profits with real cards and when run against some of the MDB+ rules some showed a significant advantage in certain casinos. If the they did this on purpose to beat say a whale who was playing, we need to answer the question how did they do it.

Okay, I will chime in, and hope not to offend... 1. Anytime someone says the casino started dealing anti-NOR shoes when they walked in. 2. Anytime someone says there is such a thing as a 'designer shoe'. 3. Anytime someone says that a casino can order a particular type of shoe 'type' from the card packing companies. 4. Anytime someone says that a Shufflemaster card shuffler can be set to create a certain type of shoe, or the shuffle can be modified management. "...and the mind sees what it wants to see..." Robert Langdon, The DaVinci Code

Yes, your 'looking back' 4 events is very similar to the looking back on the SAP numbers (I guess they are really only event numbers). Basically, if 7 hands ago, the 1-2-3-4+ event numbers were 4-2-2-2 and this hand they are 9-3-2-2, you subtract the counts from 7 hands ago and the Near MC count is 5-1-0-0.

Hi, I thought I would contribute to the Short-Term SAP discussion – another way to look at it. I too thought SAP was of value, but fail to see how events 40+ hands ago impact what is happening now. So I took the usual weighted SAP count and using the 4D-Analyser-LivePlay (B2) spreadsheet, tried various ideas. I was disappointed with the results, and then someone on this forum mentioned not using the weights, just use the number of events, that has produced better results. If you look at the attached file, NMCexample.pdf (NMC stands for ‘Near MC’) I added some columns – you will see that columns AR, AS, AT, and AU are the number of events (1s, 2s, 3s, 4+s). I added columns AV, AW, AX and AY – these are the number of events MINUS a number we ‘look-back’ to – in this instance it is looking back 7 hands and subtracting what the number of events were 7 hands ago. For example, hand 22 the events are 9-1-3-1, but if you subtract 7 hands back, you get 3-0-2-1, in this instance the MC and NMC are the same – but not always – you can see from the last hand, that betting flat 1 unit bets, that MC ended +4, while NMC ended +7. I also looked at LC but cannot figure out a way for it to be of value – except maybe to bet opposite! I analyzed different ‘look-back options’ looking back from 3-5-7-9-12 hands back to subtract from the MC and it seems that looking back 7 hands and subtracting is the best way to go. However, one thought I have had is that perhaps there is a different best ‘look-back number’ for each of the 1-2-3-4+ in-a-row groupings, instead of looking back 7 hands for all of them – not sure how to research that. How is it doing? I've only ran 55 shoes, of varying length, with no rules the NMC is averaging 1 unit per shoe on the 1 unit bets so far. Using a 2-3-4 negative progression with limit of loss max to -8 per shoe, averaging 3.2 units per shoe. Probably would do better if I didn’t let the losing shoes go to -8. Some MC/NMC rules that are valid: if MC by itself, don’t bet, if MC and NMC say same, bet it, NMC by itself, bet it. I have no idea how this idea could be implemented in the casino environment – too much numbers to play with. So, just another idea to think about regarding near-term SAP and the value of that. Maybe Keith can have this data/concept incorporated into his master file so it could be examined for a lot of shoes? My perspective on shoes: I always say that every shoe has a couple to a few ‘patterns’ in it (like SS groupings), or a NOR pattern, and maybe it is a repeating pattern or there are different patterns in the shoe, with ‘chaos’ in between the pattern sets. There won’t be a lot of patterns, 2 to 5 or so. Goal is to figure out what pattern you might be in or going into, how long it will last, how long the chaos will last. Just another contribution. Paul RESULTSv30.pdf NMCexample.pdf

Thanks Brad, excellent idea. I am going to add a column to my chart.

Here is an idea I have been playing with some good results. With any idea, I think it is important to outline our theory of why it works or should work, so here goes – looking forward to the discussion… Observation: I know we often talk about ‘this is definitely an OTBL shoe’, or ‘S40 cleans up in this shoe’, etc. But my personal experience is that yes, all shoes show ‘segments’ that match and are profitable to one of the various ideas we have worked on in the forum, from net betting, O/R, OTBL/TBL, NOR, MDB+, etc. BUT then what I see is a bit of chaos for a few hands and then a different thing/idea is winning – my theory is that this coincides with the idea that everything eventually returns to a balanced world. No matter the laws of probability, I cannot image a shoe of 80+ hands being B-P-B-P-B all the way through. Idea: I started tracking Opposite/Repeats and OTBL/TBL – numbering them as they happen – see attached example (Should/could include P/B, but have not). With the idea that nothing lasts forever, I tracked and saw which made it to 8 or 10 first (still playing with what is best), once I hit that, I would bet on the reverse of that. Trying to figure out the ‘frequency’ of the shoe, per se, - I’ve always felt a kinship with 8 hands / 64 per shoe idea. The idea is to figure out what the average length of a ‘Type Run’ would be – it may be 8 or 10 or 12 or? So for example, if OTBL got to 8 before everyone else, I would start to bet on TBL, and start my count over. I would continue on TBL until 3 losses, then see if anything else now had 8/10 accumulated since start of new count, if so, would bet on the opposite of that, or wait until something has 8/10, then bet on the opposite. Playing with U1D2M2, but 3-4-5 is working better – more profitable. Perhaps there is a better progression for this idea I haven’t thought of yet. Thoughts? 20thJun.pdf

Yes, thank you!

Hi Ellis, I am in 100% agreement with everything you said, especially about casinos - they want our money and will do whatever they can to get it. I have experienced where a dealer tried to cheat me and I was too busy filling out my form but everyone else at the table caught it and yelled out! My post info had nothing to do with the casinos, your knowledge is paramount there. I'm only trying to give some background info on the Shufflemaster product and the "pre-shuffled" cards that casinos order from the card companies. I have no insight as to what casinos do behind their closed doors. I'm not buying any public image about casinos and I don't think I was projecting such in my post. See my personal IM to you for additional.

I would like to contribute some actual industry knowledge here so that we can move on from conspiracy discussions of how casino management is manipulating shoe randomness whenever they want. Ellis is quite right in that to really randomize a deck you need to shuffle 7 times, and to randomize 2 decks it is 7*7 or 49 times; obviously, whether via 6-decks or 8-decks delivered packaged, or whether a Shufflemaster machine, or a 29-year old dealers hands, no one is shuffling enough to call it truly random. Both the card companies and Shufflemaster use what are called software random number generators (RNGs) to determine a set level of randomness. If you do some serious research on the ol’ Interweb, you can even find the patents for both the pre-shuffled card process and for the Shufflemaster shuffling process. Both also are reviewed and certified by independent test labs, such as GLI and BMM (you can research those too); along with some regulators have their own test labs that approve, separate from using an ITL, such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Ontario. Some regulators do further testing after the ITL certification, such as Washington or Nevada. Some further insight on the 6-deck/8-deck pre-shuffled cards… yes, each block has a code, not some secret code that tells anything to anyone – it is exactly like the code you will see on your medication prescription – in case you get a bad batch, they can track it back to the exact shift of people working on a given day in the manufacturing facility in Turkey. The casino cannot ‘order’ blocks of cards with varying degrees of randomness, nor can they order them set to a particular layout – in case they see a BTCF group forming in their lobby – if someone in the casino has told you they can – they are chuckling behind your back. Same with the Shufflemaster machines – they just shuffle cards folks, set amount of shuffling time based on the RNG. They cannot be modified by the casino management to create more randomness (other than if someone re-shuffled a set of cards again immediately after shuffling them). Those units that can read cards are used at the end of a time period and can sort a deck into its order and advise what cards are missing, which aids research/audit if questions arise. What I think we can say accurately is that the pre-shuffled groupings of cards are probably a bit more random, to a degree, than the Shufflemaster initial shuffling of a shoe of cards, and whole lot more random than what dealer Stephanie can do with 8 new decks by hand!

As the cops say at an accident, “nothing to see here, move along…†Shufflemaster simply is trying to generate more business – more purchases of their card shufflers and they have to see how they can continue to dominate the industry, and part of that is going against the 8-deck pre-shuffled card sales. There are no hidden secret functionality to the Shufflemaster units – they shuffle cards for a given amount of time that the casino management cannot alter – per a set random number generator (RNG) value. Their functionality is certified by multiple independent test labs. Some of their units have the ability to read cards and put a deck in order at the end of a shift or period and advise whether there are any cards missing, it cannot shuffle in any unique way or for different time frames. If someone is telling you differently, they are lying to you.

Ellis - you put your SAP/Reverse SAP thread on the public forum

Hi Keith, I have a Screencast account set up, tried the http://www.screencast.com/t/wm5bEkEzVdKs link a variety of ways, still get same message. Can you share step and get a new link to give us? Thanks. We're sorry! We were unable to locate the requested page. Please check the URL you entered to make sure it is correct. If you were looking for content owned by a Screencast.com user, please contact the content owner for more information.

Hi Ellis, Any update to where you are at or plans on showing us or selling us: "...Well Keith has been working on an on line system. It is an all out war type of system. The whole idea is to make lots of money betting small units. Well Keith just won 20 live on line shoes in a row averaging 10 units per shoe playing every shoe with the exact same rules... But 20 wins in a row averaging +10 is unheard of especially on line... one thing is for sure. I'm going to learn this system and start playing on line... Keith and I will have to get together and figure out how we'll market this thing. We've definitely got a tiger by the tail here! "ALL OUT WAR!" Paul

U.S. based RNG Bacc: https://nj-casino.goldennuggetcasino.com/english/#/C/67/Table+games.html

Hi Ellis, I am excited to see where this is going – just from my original post on Feb. 24th of your ‘How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Days Plan’ from your manual of almost 20 years ago - to this thread! I want to provide some insight into both the pre-shuffled cards and the Shufflemaster shuffler. Both use software based Random Number Generator (RNG) to shuffle the cards. These RNGs and their settings (such as seed values) are not allowed to be modified. Both are tested and certified by independent test labs, and by specific jurisdiction Regulator test labs, (for those jurisdictions that do not use the independent test labs for review prior to their product approval). There is no opportunity provided to casino management when ordering pre-shuffled cards to choose the extent of shuffling. In regard to the Shufflemaster shuffler, there are no operator options that would allow the operator (casino management) to modify the shuffle. The shuffle is based solely on the set RNG functionality. Now having said that, are we seeing more randomization of shoes? Dramatically so! I can recall sitting at a table in one casino 15+ years ago and seeing 15 Players in a row; got up, walked over to another casino and standing by a table saw 21 Players in a row. Saw that kind of stuff often. Haven’t seen something like that in many years. It used to be the trend was your friend, now the trend is your friend, until it isn’t. Having said the above about the cards and shuffler RNG, are pre-shuffled cards and Shufflemaster shoes shuffled more thoroughly than hand shuffles and therefore are more random? Absolutely. Are we seeing much more random shoes than in the past? Absolutely. Now, the question is how ‘severely’, if I can use that word, are the pre-shuffled cards shuffled? Would it be the equivalent of cards being shuffled 4 times in a row by a Shufflemaster? That I do not know. Anybody out there know the facts? Just wanted to pass on some factual info regarding these products. 2/24 I've always fancied this idea from a great manual I read 10+ years ago: E. Clifton Davis’ How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Days Plan Once you are winning 5 units or more per shoe – try this no risk plan: Day 1: Play 10 shoes @ $5 units = wins $250 – this gives you 10 - $25 unit buy in. Day 2: Play 10 shoes @ $25 units = wins $1,250 – this gives you 12.5 - $100 unit buy in. Day 3: Play 10 shoes @ $100 units = wins $5,000 – this gives you 10 - $500 unit buy in. Day 4: Play 10 shoes @ $500 units = wins $25,000 – this gives you 10 - $1,000 unit buy in. Day 5: Play 10 shoes @ $1,000 units = wins $50,000 – this gives you 10 - $5,000 unit buy in. Day 6-10: Play 40 shoes @ $5,000 units = wins $1,081,500 Winning a million dollars at Baccarat is an extremely common occurrence.

I've always fancied this idea from a great manual I read 10+ years ago: E. Clifton Davis’ How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Days Plan Once you are winning 5 units or more per shoe – try this no risk plan: Day 1: Play 10 shoes @ $5 units = wins $250 – this gives you 10 - $25 unit buy in. Day 2: Play 10 shoes @ $25 units = wins $1,250 – this gives you 12.5 - $100 unit buy in. Day 3: Play 10 shoes @ $100 units = wins $5,000 – this gives you 10 - $500 unit buy in. Day 4: Play 10 shoes @ $500 units = wins $25,000 – this gives you 10 - $1,000 unit buy in. Day 5: Play 10 shoes @ $1,000 units = wins $50,000 – this gives you 10 - $5,000 unit buy in. Day 6-10: Play 40 shoes @ $5,000 units = wins $1,081,500 Winning a million dollars at Baccarat is an extremely common occurrence.