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About jaybird8521

  • Birthday 03/10/1978

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  1. I'm only posting my results with the 4D because Ellis asked me to (they were originally sent to him privately). Only a few people seem interested in working out the 4D rules and maybe that's because everyone else is waiting for the next big method to be unveiled. Adding to that, it seems more of the "I have it all figured out but I'm not sharing" attitude has been showing it's face lately. While I'm sure these members have their reasons (annoying questions, possible casino countermeasures, etc), it's incredibly discouraging to everyone else who has paid $600 to be part of a community. That being said, I posted what I've been working on, not to "show off", but to get some help so we can eventually settle on a set of rules that consistently produces. Unfortunately, out of all of our members, only one has stepped up to help me and that says a lot. So I'm going to keep chugging away behind the scenes because I know we're close, but I'm bowing out of future discussions. If you guys want to do some testing, have at it (most of what I'm doing has been posted in this thread). I'd be curious to hear your results. Results: If we count a +2 or higher as a win and a -6 as a loss, then I only had 2 losses out of 32 shoes. Most of these shoes I stopped around 4 or 5 but I'm sure I could have scored higher if I kept going. 32 shoes 30 finished above 0 2 finished below 0 (both at -6) Total average is 5.69 units (take this with a grain of salt because of the +17 and +14 and also because I stopped most shoes around +4 when I most likely would have scored much higher) 1. +3 2. +14 3. +5 4. +4 5. -6 6. +2 7. +8 8. -6 9. +3 10. +4 11. +6 12. +6 13. +9 14. +7 15. +11 16. +7 17. +9 18. +5 19. +6 20. +4 21. +12 22. +4 23. +7 24. +8 25. +8 26. +4 27. +4 28. +17 29. +6 30. +4 31. +2 32. +5 Update: Going by my original parameters of considering a +4 or more a win and a -6 a loss, my updated rules have gotten me 35 wins out of the last 42 shoes I've played (all different shoe types) playing the rules mechanically while disregarding table selection.
  2. Because I'm net betting p/b starting at hand 23 and again at hand 25. I don't mean to be abrasive but if you don't understand net betting then you're not ready for 4D. Ellis has written about this multiple times so go back and re-read his posts until you're up to speed: http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/content.php?r=1856-Net-Betting-101
  3. Thanks for the replies. I guess I'm a bit confused about the concept of the 4D. From my understanding, it was originally conceived as a way to capture a guaranteed +1 by choosing only a few select bets per shoe (without the need to cherry pick the best tables). But to this day, we still do not have a solid set of rules that allows us to achieve this. I've been playing every possible combination of rules that we've considered so far (u1d1, u1d2, betting opps, going otr after 2,3 and 4 losing bets, etc) and the way I'm playing now is the closest I've come to hitting a +4 80% of the time (playing mechanically with zero guess work) across all shoe types with complete disregard for table selection. But since nobody seems to be interested in this and would rather keep pointing out how NOR would have killed a particular shoe in retrospect, then let's just stick with NOR and the new variations that Ellis is coming up with.
  4. Here's an example of a tough shoe that I couldn't beat. I started at hand 10 instead of 8 because I was concerned about the initial ZZ and my gut told me to wait a few more hands. It was a good call since the 6zz went right into a 5iar. Not fun. Starting at play 10, I lose a 1 bet at hand 11 and immediately jump on the run with another 1 unit bet because p/b broke out of jail. Just an fyi, having to jump on the run this early happens very infrequently (I think this is the first time in the last 30 shoes I've played). If you always pick the lowest count, it will rarely break out before your losing 3 bet and if it does, it will break one hand before that. So I lose my otr bet (hand 12) and then sit out 4 hands before I restart at play 17. Now you might say, "You violated your rules by not starting at play 8." And you would be correct. So starting at play 8, you'd be net betting pb. You would lose hand 9 and hand 10 and then sit out because hand 10 was the tail end of a 4 iar. If you didn't, you would have lost the 1,2,3 and the 1otr and be down -7 by hand 12. If you sit out, you're only down -3. So technically, I should be down -3 by hand 17 instead of -2. Moving on... I start to slowly climb back up and take another time out at hand 27 for 4 plays because 3 counts are tied for lowest. At hand 31, o/r becomes the low count so I start net betting again. I would normally exit at hand 34 after hitting +3 and losing the next 1 bet (because I was down from the get-go and it took me 20 hands to get to +3) but I kept going to show you guys what can happen if you get greedy when playing these rules. If you don't exit at hand 34, you will then lose your 2 bet, your 3 bet and an otr bet (1 unit) and hit -4 at hand 37. You're now too far in the red to risk another progression (even though you will rarely lose a 3 bet more than once per shoe). My prog at hand 41 scores me another unit but the prog that starts at hand 43 brings me down to my stop-loss (-6) at hand 45. Even though I win the next 3 bet, I had to risk 9 units at that point. After a ton of work, I finally exit the shoe at hand 55 with just 1 unit. So this is a good example of how 4D can weather a tricky shoe. And even though it was a losing one (I consider anything less than +4 a loss) walking away with a +2 isn't that bad at all. I'm quite sure I can score even higher on most shoes if I drop my stop-loss to a -8 or -10 but for now I'm happy with a near guaranteed +4. Questions are welcomed.
  5. I only avoid runs at the beginning of the shoe. Since my stop loss is -6, I want to mitigate the possibility of losing a 1,2,3 prog from the start. But after I get going I always play the runs. The shoe below has a 12iar so you can see how I handle that as well as how I sit out 4 hands after my losing 1 bet. Why? Because after a long run (like a 12 iar in this example) our counts become useless and can't be trusted unless you want to keep betting the highest count. But that would often be a mistake, like in this shoe which is a straight s40 mode 3 with one long run in the middle (OTBL would do just as well). My normal exit point would have been at hand #29 with a +3 since I went down to -3 twice. In fact, depending how I was feeling, I might have exited when I lost that 1 bet at hand #19 since I was down -3 and climbed back to +3 before the loss (I'll gladly take a consistent +2). But I ignored these two stop wins to give you guys more examples of betting/switching etc, and was able to hit a +7 at play #46 (after I hit a +5, I keep going until I lose a 1 bet). I believe I won 25 out of the last 29 shoes I played but I will have to go back and count up all of my scorecards. I'm not sure this is entirely accurate because it's quite possible I made some mistakes with my scoring and count spreads. In fact, I completely botched the counts in the shoe below but it didn't make much difference (I corrected the counts afterwards so they wouldn't confuse anyone).
  6. Sure, not a problem. So you have to keep your eye on the 4 counts which are p/b, o/r, ot/t, OO/tt and the spread of each count (let's say they are -1/2, 2/7, -3/3 and 1/-12). Each time you restart with a 1,1 bet after a win you need to recalculate all of the spreads for each of the 4 counts but you only look at what happened the last 8 hands - any numbers in your count columns from more than 8 hands ago should be ignored. It's essentially like starting the shoe again from scratch at hand #9 - you have 8 prior plays to use to calculate the spreads of the 4 counts. Getting back to the 4 sets of numbers I gave you, the count with the lowest spread is p/b (-1/2 is a spread of 3) so I will start net betting p/b. So let's say I am about to start again on hand #20. I sit out this hand and wait for the result. If it's banker, I will bet 1 unit on player for hand #21. If that wins, I sit out the next hand and recalculate the spreads. If banker wins, I will bet 2 units on player. If I win the 2, I sit out the next hand. If I lose the 2 bet, I go to 3 units on player. If I lose the 3 bet, I will flat bet the run until it ends. Now if the p/b spread hits 5 before I lose a 3 bet, I will jump on the run earlier than normal at that point, also flat betting until I lose. I will keep watching the spread from where I last calculated it (if I began net betting at hand #20, that means you need to look at all the numbers in your count column from hand #12 to the current play but only in the p/b column since I don't concern myself with the other counts while in the middle of a progression.) If you're about to place a 3 bet on hand 23, this means you are still calculating the spreads from hand #12 which was 11 hands ago. Let's say you win a 3 bet at play 23. You then recalculate the counts from hand 16 (the last 8 plays only) and begin net betting again on hand 24 (sit out this hand). And finally, let's say you lost the 3 bet on hand 23, went on the run for 3 bets and lost the third one. This means you lost at hand 26. Now you sit out 4 hands and begin net betting again on hand 31 (always sit out 4 hands after losing an Otr bet). You also need to recalculate the counts from 8 hands back (beginning at hand 23) and choose the count with the current lowest spread. Does that make sense?
  7. A couple of guys have pm'ed me for a scorecard, saying my rules were a bit confusing. I really thought I made everything as easy to follow as possible but I guess not. Now I know how Ellis feels on a daily basis. lol Regarding the card below, my normal exit point would have been hand +21 with a +4 but I played the entire shoe so you guys could see more of the switches, etc. Continuing on scores you a +14 by hand #48. Since I never lost a 3 unit bet (and my counts never broke out of jail) there were no OTR bets made which makes this shoe easy to follow along with. Ignore the horizontal lines in the spread column because I always draw a line 8 plays back from each restart point. And I forgot to add that I started at hand #10 because a 4iar was developing at hand #8 so I waited for it to end before starting. And if the shoe is tough to read on your screen, just right click it and select "view image" from the drop down menu to blow it up. Not sure what the equivalent action is on a mac, though. Let me know if you have any questions.
  8. Hi Glenn, I will do my best to post some shoes tomorrow. When you do your testing, remember that we’re not trying to figure out what set of rules gets us the highest scores, but which wins the most shoes (while keeping losses to a minimum). The best way to test is to play 20 random shoes (ideally a mix of s40, s40 Mode 1, F, OTBL and shoes that go all over the place) with 2 different sets of rules, attempting to hit a +5 with a -6 stop loss. Anyone can glance at a previously played scorecard and pick the system that WOULD have beat the shoe, but we need to find one set of 4D rules that fares the best against every possible shoe type. Otherwise, we should just stick with NOR+. Also, you might find that my rules will help you with runs, as I rarely lose a 1,4 bet and I do my best to avoid early runs as much as possible. Betting that the count will move away from 0 after the spread hits 5 is exactly what I've been doing. I have not been watching the high count at all (except after losing a 1,4) but BigVic might be on to something. Please let us know if it works out consistently. Thanks.
  9. Hi Ellis, To me, it's the same thing but maybe I'm just confused. I start net betting 1,1 on hand #8. My progression is 1,2 then 1,3 then 1,4 and I go back to 1,1 after each win. If I lose the 1,4 (3 unit bet) I flat bet the run until I lose. But it's the same as betting opposite whatever happened on hand 8 with a 1,2,3 prog. Here are my updated rules: (my rules have since been modified. I plan on posting them soon).
  10. New Jersey will now offer online gambling to its residents starting on Tuesday. http://www.myfoxphilly.com/story/24030834/nj-becoming-3rd-state-to-offer-internet-gambling
  11. Thank you Ellis. It's all starting to come together, slowly but surely. So when you bet on the run, off the run, do you prefer to make it a continuation of the same progression you have been using (lets say U1D2) or would you use a separate "progression within a progression" like bluetri mentioned for this trick? If the latter, how would you structure it? I'm a bit confused about this. And could you please answer my first question in the thread regrading player and banker runs? I'm looking forward to the webinar tomorrow. Everything on this forum has been absolute gold so far.
  12. Thank you for the clarification. It makes sense. Can you please give me an example of when you use on the run/off the run and how the separate progressions should be structured? Thanks again.
  13. Yes, that makes sense. I stayed in M3 because it was the same run and I was hoping it would end sooner than later. I will try switching modes next time. Would you also apply the "bet on the run/off the run" trick here, as well? If so, how exactly does it work? Thanks.
  14. Question #2: This might actually be a standard Nor question as opposed to Nor+. Let's say I'm in a perfect S40 Mode 3 shoe and I'm up about 10 units. Out of nowhere, I'm hit with a player run of 8 iar. This is how I played it (the wrong way): P (win 1) B (win 1) P (win 1) P (lose 1) P (lose 2) P (lose 3) P (win 4 otr and I go right back to betting on opposites/banker) P (lose 1 - I'm not using u1d2 until I feel more comfortable so I'm back to a 1 bet) P (lose 2) P (lose 3) B (lose 4 - I went on the run with P just as the run ended, losing my second 4 bet) So what's the correct way to play this? I saw a mention of a "bet on the run, off the run until it ends" technique somewhere so I'm assuming that would be the right play. Can someone please explain how that would work? Do you go back and forth with minimum bets or do you use a progression, etc. Thanks for all the help!!!
  15. Hi Ellis and crew, I'm new to the Bac forum but I tried to read as much as possible so I wouldn't ask something that's already been answered 100 times. I couldn't find anything related to what I'm about to ask, so I apologize in advance if I skipped over this info somehow. Question #1: In regards to the Nor+ enhancements, Ellis says that you need to watch out for 5 iar's and then apply Mode 1 to either straight or zz runs, depending on which run contains 5 or mores iar. But the way I'm seeing it is that you need to be mindful of 3 different run types as opposed to 2: zz's, player straights and banker straights. Is this correct? For instance, if I'm playing OTBL Mode 3 and so far 3 different banker 6 iar's popped up in the current shoe, BUT the longest player run has been 3 iar, I get that we should start applying Mode 1 to banker straight runs but shouldn't we stick with Mode 3 after losing our 2 bet on a PPP run instead of applying Mode 1 to player runs? Or does the math say that if you are getting 5 iar's on one side, there is a high probability that 5 iar's on the other side are about to come out? I'll put my next question in a second post.
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