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jaybird8521

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About jaybird8521

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    Professional Blackjack Player
  • Birthday 03/10/1978

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  1. I'm only posting my results with the 4D because Ellis asked me to (they were originally sent to him privately). Only a few people seem interested in working out the 4D rules and maybe that's because everyone else is waiting for the next big method to be unveiled. Adding to that, it seems more of the "I have it all figured out but I'm not sharing" attitude has been showing it's face lately. While I'm sure these members have their reasons (annoying questions, possible casino countermeasures, etc), it's incredibly discouraging to everyone else who has paid $600 to be part of a community. That be
  2. Because I'm net betting p/b starting at hand 23 and again at hand 25. I don't mean to be abrasive but if you don't understand net betting then you're not ready for 4D. Ellis has written about this multiple times so go back and re-read his posts until you're up to speed: http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/content.php?r=1856-Net-Betting-101
  3. Thanks for the replies. I guess I'm a bit confused about the concept of the 4D. From my understanding, it was originally conceived as a way to capture a guaranteed +1 by choosing only a few select bets per shoe (without the need to cherry pick the best tables). But to this day, we still do not have a solid set of rules that allows us to achieve this. I've been playing every possible combination of rules that we've considered so far (u1d1, u1d2, betting opps, going otr after 2,3 and 4 losing bets, etc) and the way I'm playing now is the closest I've come to hitting a +4 80% of the time (playin
  4. Here's an example of a tough shoe that I couldn't beat. I started at hand 10 instead of 8 because I was concerned about the initial ZZ and my gut told me to wait a few more hands. It was a good call since the 6zz went right into a 5iar. Not fun. Starting at play 10, I lose a 1 bet at hand 11 and immediately jump on the run with another 1 unit bet because p/b broke out of jail. Just an fyi, having to jump on the run this early happens very infrequently (I think this is the first time in the last 30 shoes I've played). If you always pick the lowest count, it will rarely break out before your los
  5. I only avoid runs at the beginning of the shoe. Since my stop loss is -6, I want to mitigate the possibility of losing a 1,2,3 prog from the start. But after I get going I always play the runs. The shoe below has a 12iar so you can see how I handle that as well as how I sit out 4 hands after my losing 1 bet. Why? Because after a long run (like a 12 iar in this example) our counts become useless and can't be trusted unless you want to keep betting the highest count. But that would often be a mistake, like in this shoe which is a straight s40 mode 3 with one long run in the middle (OTBL would do
  6. Sure, not a problem. So you have to keep your eye on the 4 counts which are p/b, o/r, ot/t, OO/tt and the spread of each count (let's say they are -1/2, 2/7, -3/3 and 1/-12). Each time you restart with a 1,1 bet after a win you need to recalculate all of the spreads for each of the 4 counts but you only look at what happened the last 8 hands - any numbers in your count columns from more than 8 hands ago should be ignored. It's essentially like starting the shoe again from scratch at hand #9 - you have 8 prior plays to use to calculate the spreads of the 4 counts. Getting back to the 4 sets of
  7. A couple of guys have pm'ed me for a scorecard, saying my rules were a bit confusing. I really thought I made everything as easy to follow as possible but I guess not. Now I know how Ellis feels on a daily basis. lol Regarding the card below, my normal exit point would have been hand +21 with a +4 but I played the entire shoe so you guys could see more of the switches, etc. Continuing on scores you a +14 by hand #48. Since I never lost a 3 unit bet (and my counts never broke out of jail) there were no OTR bets made which makes this shoe easy to follow along with. Ignore the horizontal lines i
  8. Hi Glenn, I will do my best to post some shoes tomorrow. When you do your testing, remember that we’re not trying to figure out what set of rules gets us the highest scores, but which wins the most shoes (while keeping losses to a minimum). The best way to test is to play 20 random shoes (ideally a mix of s40, s40 Mode 1, F, OTBL and shoes that go all over the place) with 2 different sets of rules, attempting to hit a +5 with a -6 stop loss. Anyone can glance at a previously played scorecard and pick the system that WOULD have beat the shoe, but we need to find one set of 4D rules that fares
  9. Hi Ellis, To me, it's the same thing but maybe I'm just confused. I start net betting 1,1 on hand #8. My progression is 1,2 then 1,3 then 1,4 and I go back to 1,1 after each win. If I lose the 1,4 (3 unit bet) I flat bet the run until I lose. But it's the same as betting opposite whatever happened on hand 8 with a 1,2,3 prog. Here are my updated rules: (my rules have since been modified. I plan on posting them soon).
  10. New Jersey will now offer online gambling to its residents starting on Tuesday. http://www.myfoxphilly.com/story/24030834/nj-becoming-3rd-state-to-offer-internet-gambling
  11. Thank you Ellis. It's all starting to come together, slowly but surely. So when you bet on the run, off the run, do you prefer to make it a continuation of the same progression you have been using (lets say U1D2) or would you use a separate "progression within a progression" like bluetri mentioned for this trick? If the latter, how would you structure it? I'm a bit confused about this. And could you please answer my first question in the thread regrading player and banker runs? I'm looking forward to the webinar tomorrow. Everything on this forum has been absolute gold so far.
  12. Thank you for the clarification. It makes sense. Can you please give me an example of when you use on the run/off the run and how the separate progressions should be structured? Thanks again.
  13. Yes, that makes sense. I stayed in M3 because it was the same run and I was hoping it would end sooner than later. I will try switching modes next time. Would you also apply the "bet on the run/off the run" trick here, as well? If so, how exactly does it work? Thanks.
  14. Question #2: This might actually be a standard Nor question as opposed to Nor+. Let's say I'm in a perfect S40 Mode 3 shoe and I'm up about 10 units. Out of nowhere, I'm hit with a player run of 8 iar. This is how I played it (the wrong way): P (win 1) B (win 1) P (win 1) P (lose 1) P (lose 2) P (lose 3) P (win 4 otr and I go right back to betting on opposites/banker) P (lose 1 - I'm not using u1d2 until I feel more comfortable so I'm back to a 1 bet) P (lose 2) P (lose 3) B (lose 4 - I went on the run with P just as the run ended, losing my second 4 bet) So what's the correct way to play thi
  15. Hi Ellis and crew, I'm new to the Bac forum but I tried to read as much as possible so I wouldn't ask something that's already been answered 100 times. I couldn't find anything related to what I'm about to ask, so I apologize in advance if I skipped over this info somehow. Question #1: In regards to the Nor+ enhancements, Ellis says that you need to watch out for 5 iar's and then apply Mode 1 to either straight or zz runs, depending on which run contains 5 or mores iar. But the way I'm seeing it is that you need to be mindful of 3 different run types as opposed to 2: zz's, player straights and
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