kingstar

Hi Ellis, Count me in too. Looking foward to it

Hi Ellis, In the MDB+SAP thread, you stated this rule: "For every event(s) a shoe is high in, the shoe MUST be equally low in other event(s)" I am not quite sure what it is about. could you please elaborate it a bit more? Thanks

Would like to ask when using SAP count as an indicator for MDB play, which way is more effective: to use the MC event or to use the LC event? I was thinking to use MC event. For example: 1. if SAP count for 1s is highest, i will play 3zz goes to 4zz but not 3zz stays 3zz 2. if SAP count for 2s is highest, i will play 2s stays 2s and 3s stays 3s, but neither 2s goes to 3s nor 3s goes to 4s 3. if SAP count for 3s is highest, i play both 2s goes to 3s and 3s stays 3s, but neither 2s stays 2s nor 3s goes to 4s

I think you can send an email to Keith to request for it.

In my opinion, after re-shuffle, every shoes should be seen as an independent shoe, we cannot consider previous shoe's last result as the previous hand of current shoe's first hand.

Hi brad01, I have tried to practise the shoes Pando posted with both MDB and NOR. MDB does not have many signals but can win just a few units in most of the shoes (I use three occurrence of events), while play NOR will win much more units in most of the shoes without big draw down.

Master Ellis, You are right. I have been quite busy for the past few days. I've read many good post in the private forum and think about how i can apply those method into my play while playing the real shoes posted by other members. It has been a great learning experience. For those guys who are serious about playing baccarat, i will say: Joining the private forum is just the first step, if you want to really improve your play, you must spend time to learn those method or system designed by Ellis. And practise a lot before entering casino to beat it Regards, Kevin

After joining the private forum for less than 2 weeks, i am slowly building up the system that meet my risk tolerant level through reading those valuable post by our master Ellis and other members. In this 2 weeks, i learned more than what i have learned from the public forum for the post 10 months since i first joined BTC (although for the first few month, i was still in doubt that can i really beat casino?). I wish that one year later, i can also start a thread like MVSeahog to say that i have win some money as compared to one year ago Regards, Kevin

Initially i don't quite understand why Ellis recommend S4 for PBPB. Now after going through some thinking, i think i might get why Ellis say so. Just to share my thought here (all comment are welcome): We start S4 for PBPB, once we see the first confirmed 2s or 3s, we can switch to normal S1 (if 1s is still the highest). This way it reduce the loss caused by 3s and 4s although it get less profit for the first 2s, play this way it is of much less risk. Regards, Kevin

thanks, Brendan I tried to search for SAP counts but did not get what i want. I think 3zz run should be same as 3s which occurs once every 16 play but just not sure whether it is correct or not

Hi Paul, You'are welcome. We learn from each other. I can practise and learn from your shoes. Regards, Kevin

Hi Ellis, Thanks for the correction. I will follow your suggestion to avoid betting on 4 or more altogether.

Hi Ellis, Could you please provide on average, one 3ZZ, 4ZZ or 5ZZ occurs in how many plays? I can't figure it out by myself. Thanks Regards, Kevin

Duplicated post................

Hi Paul, For me, if i see 2 4s+ event appears in the very beginning of a game (which mean under pure random case, there should be 8 2s and 4 3s followed it). I will expect that there will be quite many 2s coming out later. So the best is to apply 3 2s event then bet on next 2s go to 3s (which is same as use 3 2s event to bet the next 1s stay 1). Although you may lose the some opportunity, but you will reduce the risk. Only after 2s events normalize (for example, there is in total 4 2s event, i may consider to use back 2 2s event then bet on next 2s go to 3s) Regards, Kevin

In that case, i think you are doing well. You should believe that you are doing with the correct system (already proved by your previous plays). and stick to your initial plan. In worst case, you lose nothing.

Hi ztomsk, So sad to hear that you have done so well for a long period but suddenly encounter one big lost. I am just a new member so i don't think i can give any useful suggestion. But based on my experience in forex, the win rate of you trade is not the most important winning factor, but the risk that you take to win certain profit matters most (i.e, the stop loss). So if you can consistently control your stop loss (do not take more risk after you see a high win rate), i don't think you can encounter big loss. As i remember Ellis did said he did not bet big using his own money, but he will bet big with casino money. Regards, Kevin

Hi Ellis, Thanks for your encouragement, It makes me to fill up with full energy. Actually i was trying to capture those useful information in the forum and try to digest in the past few days. This is a quite painful process as it is actually not easy to understand some of the system. But this learning process benefit me a lot now. I am still having a lot to learn. Although i have understand MDB+ rule by reading your post, i believe there is still a lot i need to find out (which will lead me to register for MDB+ members later to learn from you on the math fundamental of those system you designed, and why they can work). Anyway, i still need to prove myself first in casino before starting the next step. I will try my first MDB play in Macau in 2 weeks time. Before that, still have to learn hard Regards, Kevin

We'll said, way2fast. From what you said, I can see that you are very good at math. Your idea to pass on 4 (run or zz) after about hand 50 is great. Just my guessing (not sure correct or not), as 4s event happens every 32 play, after about 50 hands, if we failed the 1st bet, we are not likely to see a 4s again in the remaining play of the shoe. The core of the MDB+ Is based on probability on random shoes, we risk a maximum 3 tries to bet that 5 kinds of a event won't happen (a very low happening rate). So for 3s stay 3s, 3s to 4s, or 4s to 5s, actually we should define that after certain plays, we will pass on betting ( not because that we will lose, but because we only have a very low chance to see it happen) I think way2fast's idea can be even written into the MDB+ rule Regards, Kevin

Hi way2fast, Thanks for posting you MDB+ Play. I learned a lot for your play Do you consider the following when playing MDB+ (since Ellis said there are as many zz runs as straight runs) : 1. After two triple 1's bet the next double 1's stays double? If we apply that, we will be able to add one Win bet of Banker at play 28 2. After two triple 1's bet the next triple 1's goes to 4 1's? If we apply that, we will be able to add one Lose bet of Player at play 28 Or when there are so many 1's (most likely 1's will be highest), we should use MDB rule S1 to play Best Regards, Kevin

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Hi AYS, I want to thank you for providing this excel simulation file. It can help me to understand MDB in an easier way. Btw, have you already came up with a version 2? Best Regards, Kevin

Thank You, Steve. when will be the next NOR Boot Camp conducted?

Hi Ellis, I got two new questions after reading the NOR manual again. In page 15 of NOR manual, it is stated that: But, with OTB4L you lose to both to both Straight AND ZZ runs so both run types must be considered separately and you must go OTR on Both run types after either 2 or 3 losing bets against both run types But recognize that you can easily be in one Mode for one run type and the other Mode for the other run type So if my system is OTB4L and i was to use SAP count to decide which mode to use, i would need to keep track of both the count of straight run (4s vs 5s) as well as the count of zz run (4s vs 5s)? For example, if currently there is only one straight run 5s and one zz run 4s, when i lose 2 bets to 4 in a row, i will use mode 2 to bet straight OTR. Then later when i lose 2 bets to a zz run of 4s, i will use mode 3 and need continue bet one more time OTB4L, if i lose the third bet, then i will bet zz OTR, is that correct? ================================================================================================== Updated on 7 Nov 2014: I figured out that the answer to my question is Yes. We need to keep track of both the count of straight run (4s vs 5s) as well as the count of zz run (4s vs 5s) Best Regards, Kevin

Hi topstep1, Thanks for your recommendation. I will note it down Regards, Kevin