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beretta28

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  • Birthday 10/12/1946

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  1. Baccarat is a negative EV game. In this kind of games the "Bold strategy" is the best method. You must reach your win goal in the lowest number of hands(even one hand) This principle gives the answer to your post. See Dubins and Sauvage (How to gamble,if you must) Of course if with NOR,MDB+,etc…. you are convinced to have a positive EV,you must play flat bet or 1,2,3, or whatever for the highest number of hands
  2. I must confess that Ellis is the number 1. More I read his posts,more my admiration for him goes up. Lucky his students. He knows some specific points in BJ and Baccarat that even expert players don't know. The fact that up as you win progressions are a suicide(mathematically demonstrated),the fact that you can'y buy the game,the importance of shuffling. Baccarat is a very mathematical game,but math can't beat it. Only statistic and ,I'd say, geometry can win and both are in Ellis systems. He has never dealt with 2 issues(at least in the posts I read): -Variance,big deviation from statistical expectation,that sooner or later a player must face -The fact that Bank bet wins 50,68% of the time and loses 49,32% of the time(vice versa for player). The unavoidable variance and the asymmetry between B and P:why don't you take them into account in your approach or I'm mistake?
  3. Your explanation is clear and it kills all my theories about Casino games. Since 40 years I thought that in a game having a negative EV,the best way to play was "the bold strategy",to try to get your goal in the fewest number of bets. At the opposite in a game with a positive EV(your system), a lot of professors taught me that the best way was flat bet at the minimum of the table. The time will work for you and,very important issue, you won't problem with the "VARIANCE",that kills all systems and progressions. But because I respect your skills and experience I put your opinion at the same level of professors I quoted above.
  4. Your lack of basic statistic and mathematical knowledge is unbelievable. When the discussion is about "progressions" few simple elements of math and statistic are necessary:it's not your case. Your example about LWLWLLW is a joke,it's ridiculous.What about LLLLLWLLLWLLLLL?Compare flat bet and progression! May I ask your education? In addition I think that Ellis,that is a big expert agrees with me. That's why his very clever approach is "play conservative,max 1-4 units bet",because he knows perfectly that progressions are too risky even with a strong bet selection. I'm afraid I'm wasting time These concepts are incomprehensible for you
  5. What junior member DONALD wrote is correct. If you don't win flat bet,you won't win with a progression. It's not his or my opinion,it's a mathematical fact. At 18 years old,students learn it…. Progression speed up wins(illusion) but also losses,due to max bet allowed at the tables.
  6. 18 heads in a row, flipping a coin,is very rare but not impossible. I saw 22 Blacks in a row at roulette In other words it's an acceptable number(x time standard deviation) from a statistic point of view. But you were right to give up.Why not to switch to TB4L,according to what you teach to your students? Just to come back to NOR: -stop loss should be the same that stop win in every strategy (you are not so different,so it's OK) -why dot you n's flat bet if your bet selection is so strong?
  7. I'm Italian and I live 20 km from Montecarlo Casino. I don't play BJ anymore:too tough at my age to put up with big negative deviations even with positive count. I play VB at roulette and a system based on "asymmetrical hands" at Baccarat. In Europe only new sealed decks,re-shuffled at the end of each shoe. I will try OTB4TL at the 1st shoe. I watched all NOR videos on Youtube:my feeling is that there are too many SUBJECTIVE choices about shifting from OTB4TL to Mode 2,Mode 3,or OTR.. That's no good:the rules should be much more precise. May be I'm wrong. Good luck for your studies..
  8. Thank for your answer and congratulations for your works. I have known since 1970(we have almost the same age) 90% of what you have written. The concepts about 1's or2's...,chop or streaky,opposite and repeat,OB4TL or TB4TL were illustrated for the first time in 1936 by Marigny de Grilleau. I know perfectly shuffle tracking,used by a few pro players in BY or Baccarat,but it's not exactly what you said. About the influence of shuffling on biased shoes I'm sceptical,but I trust on you. I disagree(I apologize) about: -commission is not important for a player that enters a Casino 5 times a year,but very important in a continuous game(200 visits per year,like I do) -if your theory is efficacious,flat bet will be sufficient.Progression speed up the result of a session in + or -,but is not determinant. -I don't know SAP count but my feeling is that SAP count is a snapshot of a situation in a given moment.Why this snapshot must influence your next hands? How you can foresee the next decision.Every hand is 50/50: so what? Sorry,but it's a voodoo approach… -random is not the easiest bias to beat.Roulette is by definition the most random game and it's unbeatable.Because cards are not involved?May be Some more questions: do you have European students in your group?I'm curious,it's not excluded that I subscribe(600 $ per year,correct?) do you have any Ph. D among them? what ,among your books,do you suggest to me for having a better knowledge of your theories and systems? I hope to meet you in near future,may be in Montecarlo. My dream is to spend a few hours to discuss with you about baccarat and BJ,that I know also very well(I used Red seven count and BS of Stanford Young…) Congratulations again
  9. Incredible how players are simple-minded. Each hand has a negative EV,wherever you bet and whatever you bet. In addition to play every hand is a real suicide,it's what casinos like a lot. Unless you want to win the Math Nobel Prize,stop trusting in your extravagant theories. You can't change Euclid's mathematic:it has existed for centuries and it's still valid! Be sure that i'm am disappointed,I hoped your theories could help me too,because I'm a player today,but 20 years ago I was a consultant of a big European Casino. I have known several pro player at BJ(today they are less than in the past,Casinos are more vigilant) and less than 5 at Baccarat,Zero at roulette. The pro Baccarat players, that I followed for months,were very discreet,not greedy and tolerate from the Casino I used to work. Impossible to determine the strategy they used(probably deviation,cluster vs singel,they played 2 - 5 hands per shoe…). For sure they didn't talk about their wins,their systems not even to their wives,I'm afraid…. For them Forums didn't 'exist at all. In spite of that I appreciate this Forum and his community. To discuss about something that has no solution is a challenge that stimulate discussions and brains.
  10. Your answer is the demonstration that you have completely misunderstood my previous post. Your comment is not pertinent at all. It's my fault ,because english is not my mother language.
  11. Only at the end of a shoe you can determine if it was choppy,streaky or neutral.. Some systems make the conclusion after 4 or 7 hands at the most. Ridiculous! After seven zig-zag for instance(choppy shoe) how can be sure that all the remaining hands will be choppy? And if you switch to a different way of betting(streaky for instance),how can you be sure that the shoe doesn't become a choppy one again? The only way to beat Baccarat is to bet Banker only in a given a very rare situation related to deviation. Between 0 and 4 bet per shoe! Do player know that in 20 hands there are only 17,5% probability that P or B hit exactly 10 times each? As far as the progression is concerned,max 3 units is the good solution. OTB4L or similar have been invented one hour after the invention of Baccarat and the Casino have never suffered As far bet selection is concerned,see above(deviation,ecart….)
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