Probac

Ellis – since you asked for feedback, here are my thoughts. New terminology for the systems & modes was confusing to me esp with OTB4L having OTR for both zz & straight – can you revert to the old simpler terminology? More importantly can you provide a NOR Cheat Sheet – a 1- to 2-page sort of pocket guide we can use for quick reference, & to study your recent shoes. It may contain something like: Game start (with factory pre-shuffled cards) - Wait X hands, or until O/R count is X or at least one-third of # of hands before table bet; - Start with (F, S40, OTB4L) where OR count is X; - Check overlay to confirm before starting table bet & thereafter every (10?) hands or after every 2 losses to confirm/change system; Progression - Start with flat bet until score is +X, then go with 112, until +X, then 234, 345, u1d2, u1d1 etc; - If score hits –X, go with 012 etc or change system etc, or suspend or quit shoe. Quit when: - Score hits –8? with (type of progression) - Score hits +x with (type of prog); - Half decade MM - Or at play (50?) with +x; - etc The above is just for illustrative purpose only & is in no way binding or conclusive. Over to you Ellis.

Ellis - This is found in the casino in Singapore. But I believe multi-trend shoes & new pre-shuffled boxed cards for every new shoe is not uncommon in many other casinos. Its midi - ie one-dealer tables with 9 betting boxes

Ellis – It is quite common for a shoe to have different trends within it. For example it starts out choppy – say for the first 10-15 hands with lots of 1s & 2s – and you would go S40. But just when you start with S40 it turns to streak following streak for the next 20 hands or so with the occasional single 1s. So you go RD1/F2. Then it starts to throw up junk on you. Basing your system selection on past hands is good only if the trend continues. But if it doesnt you are always playing catch up, and past hands are always a lagging indicator. Someone once said – was it you? - that doing it this way is like driving while looking into the rear view mirror – you wouldnt know there’s a traffic light or railway crossing in front of you until you passed it – if you make it through safely! So – quite apart from quitting the shoe or pausing - is there a way around this? Using table trend as a leading indicator? Wont work & heres why. Some casinos do not recycle the cards after each shoe. They do not even shuffle them before a shoe begins. What happens is that they use new pre-shuffled boxed cards for every new shoe. We wouldnt know whether the pre-shuffling was done internally by the casino back room or by the card suppliers, or whether the shuffle was done by machine or by hand, or what method of card prep or shuffle was used. I have seen a choppy shoe followed by streaky shoes followed by a junk shoe all at the same table & the next shoe is anybody's guess. See whenever a new box of 8-deck is opened the dealer will without shuffling, cut the deck (or have a player do it), then place it into the shoe, burn a few cards, then begin dealing. Hence there is no table trend since a new box of cards wouldnt know what the earlier box has done. Can you address these in the manual ie how to play cold with new pre-shuffled cards which show no table/casino trend or history, & which has several trends within the shoe. Thanks

Of course we know that in a streaky shoe we should be better off playing a streak system. This is a sys 40 thread & we are discussing sys 40. The context in which I made those observations is that if we had started out playing s40 & want to continue with that system when the shoe shows streakiness then he may consider what i have said. If you are talking about switching system midshoe thats a different thing altogether.

What about this: If 3s / 4s are MC on both P & B sides (which indicates streakiness), we stay on otr until 2 losses in a row then switch. That way we cruise thru streak following streak. But then the new nemesis would be that you lose 2 bets straight on every sporadic 1s. Whether you want to do this where 3s / 4s are LC on both P & B sides is a toss up.

hey PJ thanks much for your response. could you please keep us updated on any new development on this way of playing sys 40 (tracking SAP on P/B separately). thanks again. cheers

Hi PJ, thanks for sharing this new way of playing sys 40. Some observation if you don’t mind. Hands #49-53 was a run of 5. You went otr on the 4th play of the run (hand #52) since 3s were LC for P. You then went off the run the very next play which is the 5th play of the run (hand #53) which lost, since 4s were MC for P. What if the run had gone on to say a 9 instead of a 5, wouldn’t you have lost from play 5 of the run to play 9, since you went off the run at play 5? Since you track 4s but not 4+s how would you know that 4+s would not be more than 4s? Why not simply stay otr until the run ends?

I am trying to understand the OTR bets. if you win the OTR 1-unit bet what do you do? do you continue with OTR & bet repeat with 1-unit bet until you lose once then go back yo betting opps? if you lose the 1-unit OTR bet the moment you go OTR then the next time OTR bet is called for you bet 2-unit OTR. if you lose that 2-unit bet go back to 123 opp? but if you win the 2-unit bet do you continue with OTR & bet repeats with 2-units until you lose once then go back to 123 opps?

Ellis - can you elaborate what 'bet 2' means? thanks

hi Mark thanks for the effort. would you be able to let us have the documents in word format.

Ellis, thanks for the expose. Just 3 clarifications: (1) Rd1 loses 3 bets (not 2 bets) to sporadic 1s due to the 1st rule of rd1. No? (2) if we are already playing F2 on say P side, and there is an unconfirmed 2 on the B side should we switch to the B side? illustration: pp b(to bet under p for F2) pbp bb(?) (unconfirmed 2 under b, should next bet be p or b?) (3) if we are on f2 and an unconfirmed 3 comes along on the other side should we switch to F3? illustration: pp b (to bet under P playing F2) pbp bbb(?) (here's an unconfirmed 3 under , So for the next bet: should we: (a) switch to betting b under F3 or ( stay with F2 but bet under b, or © stay with F2 and continue betting under p? Thanks in advance.

Ellis - regarding this - "You go OTR (on the run) with a 1 bet but if it loses, go back to opposites" - if you win the OTR do you continue with OTR, or do you go back to opposites regardless of whether the OTR wins or loses? thanks