[Are casinos really creating the biases...]

On 8/20/2016 at 4:09 PM, ozscouser1 said:

Honestly...I think we spend waaaay too much time worrying about this shit when it doesn't matter all that much.

Which part of "Learn to read the damn shoe" don't people understand? 

I've played countless hand shuffled...machine shuffled and new manufacturer provided cards and it makes sweet stuff all difference to my long term  PA (Player advantage)

Sure, the bias will vary within the shoe and from shoe to shoe and from day to day but the fact remains (and read my lips)..."The majority of shoes are still beatable."  

Like I said before...if you play enough shoes, you will come across shoes that blind Freddy would smash.  

Here's a shoe that popped up out of nowhere (I was having a tough start to my day)...YEAH...it happens.

B4542733(11)511

 

This shoe was such a gimme that I switched to UAW and hit the Table Limit. As I cashed out, the Pit Boss suggested that as my luck was running hot, that I should ride my luck...to which I replied "Do I really look that stupid?" (probably not all that smart given that I like to fly under the radar as much as possible...LOL)...I live in hope...those days are long gone.

 

The point is that these type of shoes with a piss easy to pick bias, still turn up, and if I hadn't continued playing despite my tough start to the day...I would have missed this golden opportunity.

 

BTW: Any member who doesn't smash this shoe should either stick to Bingo or find something else to do nights.

 

Back to the topic (sorta)...Despite me saying that I don't give two cockneys what type of shuffle casinos dish up...I get really pissed off with short shoes. It happens a lot with Live Dealer Online shoes. There is a Live Dealer Casino that I used to frequent that had a Table Limit of 5K Euros and 6 Tables to choose from, but they (over a period of time) shortened their shoes to 35 to 45 hands on average (not counting ties)  Not much use to me as I like to see a minimum of four completed events before I start playing. (and it could be several more events depending on how dominant the bias ) That could mean that I don't enter the shoe until as many as 20 or more hands are dealt. Given that there might be as few as 15 to 25 hands left in the shoe that leaves bugger all recovery time if the shit hits the fan and stuff all time for that "sweet spot" in the shoe to eventuate. 

 

Oops...I've gone off topic a bit, but the point is...don't get yourself all tied up in knots worrying about the types of shuffle...concentrate on getting your act together and in the words of Norm Allen..."Follow the shoe".

 

OK...got that off my chest...better go find my meds...LOL

OZ, you're right, why we worry about the shuffle.

No matter what and how they shuffle,    let them keep shuffling, we will keep on winning and winning, LOL.

BTW, I am machine from California. I've been a member for about 6 month now I enjoy reading your posts a lot good stuffs.

Machine

 

 

[How the cards fall]

On 8/3/2016 at 6:34 AM, avion said:

Great question Wolfat.......Simply, I NEVER start to play a shoe with any certain strategy or plan in mind.  What I look for in "reading and seeing the shoe clearly" is consistency. That could be consistent "walls", sporadics, 1's and 2's, 2's and 3's, 3's and 4's+.  If a shoe is inconsistent....I simply wait for the possibility that some consistency may develop.  Like Oz has emphasized one of the greatest things a seasoned player of the game can learn to do, handed down by Norm, is not to bet.  It takes a lot of time, work, and experience to learn when not to bet, and it is so worth it when you wanted to bet....but because of what you were seeing you decided not to bet.  Sure enough if you had bet, you would have lost.  That losing one unit bet that you didn't make, just put you one unit closer to achieving your win goal for that shoe, session, and day.   I will emphatically say, even if I only win one unit a shoe, I won that shoe.  It's more important to me to win consistently than how many units I won.  Many baseball games have been won and lost by the score of 1-0, including many extra inning games.  The guys on the losing team know they lost.  The guys on the winning team know they won.  That one unit bet, can literally mean the difference between winning the shoe, or not.

One of Pando's greatest strengths and skills, if he sees a shoe is not the type he wants, he doesn't play, and is disciplined to wait for the type of shoe he knows he will win.  That is such a powerful weapon in the skillset of "reading a shoe and seeing it clearly".  

I like your baseball winning score of 1-0 concept, win is a win and not losing is a winning in this game I think. Imagine if you could win 1 unit every shoe, that's hell of gooooooood money when you add up at the end of the month or end of year.

Great reference to the game discipline.

[How the cards fall]

On 2/5/2017 at 2:49 AM, brad01 said:

Yes it works for me

There is only a certain amount of information that a person is able to process between hands to make a decision.

You must decide what are the right variables to use and not use too many so it confuses you

But being able to track many variables of the game at once and pick which ones have trends you can use at the right times is the key I feel.

I understand your point. 4D was 4 column track during a game I think yours is less counting than 4D. I haven't tried it yet but will see would it be whether working in my playing style or not? 

I will implement some if it confuses me.

 

 

[How the cards fall]

On 8/4/2016 at 1:29 AM, brad01 said:

Here is how I might have played it

Banker SS

TBL / S40M1

S40 / opposites

 

I cant really say because its never the same as playing the real thing

I only flat bet because I still don't know when to hit a 1,2 reliably so I'm happy to flat bet and come out on top rather than hit a 1,2 at wrong time and lose.

The things I do that some people may not is I record banker and player events as separate lines but I can still see them together

Also the same with straight events and ZZ events

In a lot of ways its similar to what Oz says in his posts - I'm just looking for a bias to play

I am aware of MDB+ bets but more often than not I also use them to tell me not to bet - sometimes I play them

What I found is that sometimes Banker and Player are good to break up and look at separately and sometimes to look at together

Also the same with straight and ZZ events - sometimes good to separate and sometimes good to combine

Hi Brad

The way you countig separate p/b, ST/ZZ I think that's another great way looking at the shoe trend. I only do OR and SAP counts. I want to try your way and see how it goes.

Appreciate any input.

Machine

[How the cards fall]

On 8/14/2016 at 9:12 PM, CT70 said:

Hey Guys,

 

It’s CT here.

 

I recommend 100 units of whatever your unit size is. I usually like to see some history in the shoe before I table bet. Ideally I want to see all SAP counts populated before I make my first bet, although it’s not mandatory.

 

Once I start to bet, I’ll start with half units until my score gets to 1. Then I will flat bet until I get to 2. At 2 units I will start my 1-2 loop, with a 1 unit bet. (More conservative than the 1-2 loop is the 2-3 loop (as Pando and Oz mentioned). If my score starts to go negative I will revert back to flat betting and even half units again if necessary. However, if I am finding myself going back to half units after I’ve already started my loop, then I will re-evaluate staying in the shoe.

 

Always wait 1 hand after 2 consecutive losses no matter what. It will keep you safer.

 

You must always be watching your score. When you are at -1, play carefully. At -3 or -4 you are already in trouble and should be really choosing your bets carefully. At that point your first priority is just getting even, don’t even think about trying to make money until you are back to zero. Don’t underestimate how much trouble you can get into. In baccarat things go from not so bad to ugly very quickly. Just because you have 100 units at your disposal, don’t go betting 2 or 3 units to get even quickly because that will put you in a bigger hole to dig yourself out of.

 

By the way, the 100 unit bank roll is more for peace of mind than anything else. If you get to minus 20 units in a day, you should quit and go home.

 

Here is some advice for the beginners: If you just lost 6 ($20) units in 3 different shoes, you are now down $360 (18 units). Call it a day and go home. Come back the next day when your mind is fresh. If you are a beginner and you just lost 3 shoes, I assure you, you are not going to be able to think straight to win it back. The urge to make bigger bets is overwhelming especially if you have the money at your disposal. Go home. Come back to the casino the next day. Break down your previous day’s loss into 2 or 3 shoes/seessions. Try to win 6 or 7 units per shoe and quit the shoe. Do this this 3 times to get your money back. Don’t try to make 18 units in one shoe, if you are a beginner, it ain’t gonna happen.

 

Stop loss: I don’t have a stop loss either but that doesn’t mean I am going to let my score go to -20…..lol  For beginners I recommend a 6 unit stop loss.

 

You should always try to pick the shoe with the strongest bias to make it easy on yourself. Moreover, if you are struggling in a shoe and you’re at hand 40 and you are only up 2 units, look to take your 2 units and quit the shoe. A win is a win. Go play another shoe. Sometimes we are so absorbed in the moment that we forget that we could just as well be playing another shoe that’s easier.

 

For all the beginners: Don’t give up because you keep losing at the casino. Instead try to play more shoes at home and learn to win on your kitchen table and it will be easier to win at the casino. My idea of playing voice recorded shoes is a free option for you. Use it. I am happy to email my recorded shoes to you. Don’t play those online computer generated hands, they are more suited to roulette not baccarat. Preshuffled cards are different. They are designed a certain way and you need to learn how to beat them.

 

Eventually you will get to a point where there will be few shoes that you lose to and it won’t matter anyway because you will recognize them when they appear and you will get out early. Moreover, your winning shoes will far outnumber your losing shoes. Your bankroll will be growing daily. Once you start winning, you will feel really good and confident (but don’t get cocky…lol). Little by little you will start increasing your unit size. Next thing you know you will be playing $100 units with confidence. This is not a fantasy guys. YOU can do this.

 

Once you’re at that level you will need to learn how to fly under the radar…..but that’s another day’s lesson…..lol.

 

By the way, if your casino offers you a casino player ID card, I would not get one. If you already have one, don’t use it.

 

In my local casinos most people have casino player cards with a bar code on the back. Every hour a casino hosts comes around and scans everyones card at the table. Every time your card gets scanned, you receive a 10 cent credit (big deal!) that you can use to purchase food, beverage and gifts. As a professional player you do not need the casino to know that you are playing everyday for several hours. The scan info winds up on some executives desk and they check to see who are the everyday players and they get curious. I know the dealers and managers recognize you but it’s not in your best interest for them to get to know you too well. Besides, as a pro you don’t need the 50 cents or so per day that they give you.

 

When anyone asks what you do for a living, make sure to tell them that you have a day job. The more important the day job, the less they suspect you’re a pro. Even though it's tempting, don’t advertise or brag to anyone that you make your living at baccarat.

 

CT70

 

 

 

 

 

Hello CT70 long time no see.

I recently started playing real games, NOR short term setups with SAP as a practice mode. I am playing the similar way you mentioned for beginners. Played several sessions it's going not bad. Your post is perfectly fit into my situation now as a beginner. This is such a priceless treasure I can't buy. I will keep reading your posts and other members as well. Busy studying practicing at home and some playing, I believe some time we could coincidentally encounter at the casino. I'd love to say hello to you. Appreciate your inspiration.

Machine

[newbie questions on nor]

On 1/15/2016 at 8:04 PM, brad01 said:

Well it would not be suited for the way the original manual was written as it assumes a consistent bias throughout and so you select a mode ad play it through

U1D1M2 will supposedly bulldoze you thru

In that case you are not relying on a high hit rate.

Alternative will be short term NOR setups without modes

S40 / opposites

OTBL

Repeats

Strong Side

Maybe TBL but I find that hard to determine in the short term

If you pick one of these biases and you flat bet to win 1 or 2 units and then wait till the next bias and start again or if you think the bias will give you at least 2 wins then go till a loss or until 2 consecutive losses

The aim is to go with the current short term bias and pick up a few wins and then wait for the change and move on

EG 1211121 - bet opposite for 1 or 2 wins or until 1 or 2 losses.

Most conservative is bet for 1 win or 1 loss and move on and wait for next boas

If you are always betting with the bias you should be better than 50%

  

Hi Brad Long time no see.

I recently started playing real games, NOR short term setups with SAP, mostly flat bet and even half bet when uncomfortable, very conservative way but it works for me. Played several sessions I am up so far. Still keep practicing and reading the post every day, busy working practicing and some playing.

I have read a lot of your valuable game tactics as well as other members in this forum. It's  been about 3 months for reading and practicing I think all the answers are here I have better understanding of the game and I can see it much more clearly now. Still long way to go but moving forward like stepping stones. While I am reading the post in the forum I decided to be a professional bac player. Once I get into the level up stage I consider quitting my job and will focus on playing game only. I am making decent money at work but I am burned out, inferior quality of work, etc. The long journey has begun. Life goes on, right?

I seldom write a post mostly reading let's keep in touch. 

Machine

[Real play SAP/RSAP flat bet.]

On 5/11/2015 at 1:36 PM, brad01 said:

Well I am still just coming to terms with how to produce these Jpeg images so didn't finish but thought would post 1st column to show the set up of SAP count and the first bet staying away from LC event:

This is how Ellis taught to set up SAP count with weighted totals for 1,2,3,4+

At the end of the first column you can see that 4+'s are most common but due to their heavy weighting and 2 early events it gives a bit of an artificial lead

The important thing I think is lack of 3's

Then I also think its important that although 1's and 2's are not showing on SAP count as MC due to weighting they are next in line and in actual numbers they are MC

Being that 3's are LC it means that by betting 1's and 2's then we should win a high number of bets while staying away from LC 3's

Will post next column later when have time but that's where I kicked ass playing 1's and 2's only

I mean its all there for you guys - record SAP counts, identify MC, LC and then make a game plan to bet accordingly around the SAP count.

Hi Brad Happy Holidays !!!

I am shortly practicing SAP and reading your post about SAP I think it is a great tool to keep counting but more important key is how to interpret with what's happening at hand, I am going to practice a little bit more to see the nature of SAP. BTW are you still playing sap with sap counting?

[NOR paper bet and test and research]

Hi William

Sorry to respond slow  because I had a login problem to get into the member forum. I just talk to Keith who resolved of login problem and had a great talk with him. I am in California, I glanced at one of your post that remember you are in Malaysia, am I right?

Anyway, could you tell me your another way to hit them? They use factory pre shuffle decks in my local casinos.

Machine

[Learning the basics of baccarat]

Hi CT70

This is really a great post for all newbies including myself. I am practicing a lot, reading posts and game manuals over and over again until understanding solidly. It is very hard to understand what they are talking about without studying the basics of the game methods and systems, ie NOR. I am focusing on nor these days improving knowledge of the game. Practice Practice practice this is the key to get game knowledge. You exactly pointed out and scratched my back. Thank you for your valuable input.

Machine

[NOR paper bet and test and research]

Hi william Looi

I am machine. Nice to meet you.

Your played shoe brought my attention because I am currently studying NOR F system.

Just quick question about the shoe you played that I see you use FM2 (mode2 which means you go OTR after 2 losses iar per NOR manual) 1-2 positive progression and

1-2-3 negative progression as well. I see little unclear at where the score of 9 and 16, at 9 you stayed OTR after 3 losses iar but you switched side at score of 16 which was supposed to stay OTR, wasn't it? I analyzed your play just for learning purposes, nothing against you. I think this is a kind of learning process.

Appreciate your feedback.

Kindly Regards,

Machine

 

[Table selection]

Thanks avion

Glad to meet you

I am busy practicing nor these days, not much time spend in the forum. I guess you know Brad who is my mentor. Will be back soon on the forum after intensive home practice and I am excited to chat with successful baccarat pros. 

Kindly Regards,

Machine

[Table selection]

Hi Aznbilk87

I play in the same area as you play

I am newbie here

Nice to meet you

Machine

 

[How to use NOR the right way and win most of the shoes]

On 1/18/2016 at 10:24 PM, Guest said:

Hi William - we have not spoken in a long time --- I think you took the NOR Boot Camp a while ago -- if not, check it out this week. I agree with Avion, use some of the sites with free bac such as Wizardofodds or Baccaratonnet, and practice. I also have some additional training materials that may be helpful. Send me an email and I will send them to you. But practice on the free sites until you are comfortable making decisions and winning consistently. Also, the SAP count is a very good thing to use to keep you on track.

Let me know if I can help!

Steve

Hi Steve

I am newbie in the forum And practicing myself at home. I am trying to understand how to do SAP count but quite confused, would you send me an info? Appreciate it

Thanks

Machine

ggwchg@icloud.com

 

[What Exactly is SAP and 5D ?]

Thanks

I will join the premium.

See you there

[What Exactly is SAP and 5D ?]

Hi Wendel

It says I have no permission

"Sorry, we can't show this content because you do not have permission to see it."

How do I get permission?

Do I need to join the premium member?

Please help!!!

Thank you

[What Exactly is SAP and 5D ?]

Help !

I need first 12 lessons in the introduction of 5D system to fully understand the system.

It says first 12 lessons are already on the BTC forum that I am unable to find the threads, anyone knows missing 12 lessons or how to find the thread in the forum?

And I am looking for a good system to buy, could you give me any recommendations before I buy?

Thank you

Machine