Sakana
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Posts posted by Sakana
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GolfGirl007,
I'm glad you brought up Online Casinos.
I would think the best way to put them to use is just to PRACTICE NOR.
It might not be such a good idea to play for real money as online
casinos have been known to be painfully slow returning one's
funds, in addition to current Internet Gambling legality issues in the
States and so on.
However, practicing each component of NOR until it becomes second nature
would make one more efficient at the tables in brick-and-mortar casinos.
Opinions welcomed.
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To All:
A while back, Steve (and perhaps others) discussed the fact that the DIRECTION of the OR COUNT in the shoe is
much more important than the Actual OR Count. While this concept makes perfect sense,
I find it very hard to decide how far back in the shoe I should go to determine the aforementioned direction.
I.e. looking at the last FIVE decisions, may lead to the OR COUNT of +3 (four opposites and one repeat);
whereas, regressing to the last TEN decisions, would result in the OR COUNT of Zero (five opposites and five repeats,
regardless of the order in which they appear.)
Could someone suggest some guidelines or procedure they have used successfully to facilitate
this, what I consider, a very subjective process?
Thank you.
Sakana
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I have asked this question before and did not receive an answer.
Ellis, Keith, Steve Spataro and other instructors and top NOR players -
"What percent of hands do you actually win?"
This happens to be a very crucial piece of information, regardless,
whether one flat bets or uses a progression.
Please, do NOT keep me in the dark on this.
Thank you in advance.
Sakana
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Ellis,
What percentage of hands do you actually win? (Regardless of whether it is 1unit, 2unit, 3unit etc. bet.)
I am only interested in the percentage. Does not have to be lifetime, a ball park figure
over the last six months or so would do just fine.
Thank you.
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Ellis,
Previously, you mentioned that casinos just love "3-in-rows," as most players have no idea how to play them
What about "2-in-rows"? Would you expect some orchestration there as well, since TB4L loses against the above
pattern big time.
Thank you.
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Sarrom,
Thank you for your highly detailed reply.
Have you ever played at the Sands in Bethlehem, PA
or the Gold Coast in Vegas? There are something
like 15-20 Bac tables at each. How many tables
are there at Hollywood Park and is it relatively
easy to get a seat?
Thank you again,
Sakana
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Sarrom,
Congrats on a successful trip. About how many shoes did you
play to make your 70+ units? Also, what was your entry point
and how long did you actually stay in the shoe, on average?
Thank you for the feedback.
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BaccDJ126,
I am happy that you made 8 units in this shoe, but what made you decide to opt for SR40?
The count is mostly negative or neutral and never goes gets higher than +2, which makes
OT4L a more logical choice. Also the shoe starts out 2-2, another indication in favor of OT4L.
Please explain your thinking process. Thank you for posting.
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Mike,
Welcome to the forum.
Where do you live and are there casinos in the area?
I am in Northern VA and the closest casino is in Charleston, WV, about an hour away
Also, would you be willing to share you Zumma electronic file with me?
I have Zumma Baccarat in paperback and would like to have both.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask.
My email is jmudak@yahoo.com.
Sakana
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Walking around and looking for the easiest shoe to beat works well in places lie AC and Vegas.
But what do you do when you are at a casino that only has 2-4 Bac tables? You may be forced
to take the first available seat? Closer to home, Grantville, PA only has 2 tables!
I had asked this before - which AC casinos have the most Bac tables?
Please share... I am still a beginner at applying NOR correctly when money is on the line.
Thank you.
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First gman, thanks much for posting the shoe. I'd like all to note how extremely simple this U1D1M2 (Mandatory 2) Exploit process really is. No modes. Just bet pure opposites in a high +OR count shoe and bet U1D1M2. If Opposites remain high or even go to normal you simply can't lose. The higher the count goes the more you win. The same is true of high Repeats, high P or B or high OTB4L or TB4L. The only question that ever comes up (and it is very rare) is if you get a long run against whichever you are betting, should you ever go OTR??? I usually don't, Keith usually does. So, when playing together we have a standing deal. We cover it both ways and divy up the profits later. ONE of us is always right.
Now Sakana, that was an extremely astute question! THAT was the question we ALL had as soon as we double checked our test results. There were no errors. It is IMPORTANT to note that we were testing with actual casino shoes - not RG shoes. Our results SHOULD have been impossible and WOULD have been impossible if we had used RG (Random Gererator) shoes.
So, what do our results mean? They mean that casinos favor OTB4L shoes. Why? Because virtually all players (except us) lose to OTB4L shoes. They lose to RANDOM shoes. But WE excell in random shoes because we know OTB4L. Now you know why NOR+ bases with OTB4L.
Yes, the difference between U1D2 and U1D1m2 is huge. Why? Because we are betting in what I call bet pyramids. Every time you win a 2 bet you win your pyramid and start the next pyramid at 1. But U1D1m2 wins a whole lot more money on each pyramid than U1D2. And the m2 wins a whole lot more on a run than U1D2.
Lets compare what happens with both systems when you lose 5 bets but then eventually get back to 1.
So, Ok, U1D2 loses 12345 and then wins 642. It completed its pyramid but lost 3 units. See that?
Now, U1D1m2 loses the same 12345 and then wins 65432. OK, it won only half its bets in the pyramid but it is up 5 units for the pyramid instead of down 3. See that? See why I say you only need to win half your bets to kill the shoe?
Sure, U1D2 completes more pyramids but it actually loses money on some of them. U1D1m2 CAN'T lose on ANY pryamid as long as you get back to a winning 2 bet which only requires that you win half your bets - which just happens to be the actual game odds of Baccarat. But add a bias and watch what happens - you kill!
So why not ALWAYS bet this way??? Bias or not???
Nope! Sorry but you'd eventually get killed.
Our professional tester, Aegis, was very quick to point out that on the way to the 34% PA, we had huge draw downs. Yes, at times we were up 300 units but at other times we were down 300 units. You could not survive these draw downs.
But what actually caused them? Easy - A string of S40 shoes or a string of F shoes. So, about now you should be starting to see how NOR was born. Sure, play OTB4L in OTB4L shoes. BUT also play S40 in S40 shoes and F in F shoes. Now, if you couple that with a less aggressive progression, the draw downs disappear, hence NOR. See that?
But overall the shoes decidedly favored OTB4L, hence, NOR+!
Now you know my design secrets.
But what about this favoring stuff? How could shoes favor OTB4L?
Well, this is something you virtually had to see to believe.
I was there for the whole evolution of Baccarat. I wasn't just playing a lot, I was playing full time - tens of thousands of shoes. Back then it was all 14 player tables, brand new regular cards every shoe, high stakes. $100 mins in 80s was like $1000 mins today. Every shoe we waited for the card prep and wash and then the standard shuffle. But we played very fast back then and even including the prep we were getting about one shoe every 45 minutes. I usually got in 20 shoes a day, 7 days a week. Every casino in the world used the same card prep and the same standard Bac shuffle. It produced extreme streak. I saw 20 iars or more every day - both straight and ZZ. This worked out fine for the casinos at first, until the players finally caught on and started playing TB4L which killed every shoe. The casinos reacted by changing the prep and shuffle causing pure chop. So I designed the very system we are talking about today and kept on winning nearly every shoe. Then the casinos went to the terrible 3s era. 3s are normally 4.5 per shoe. We were seeing that many per column. So I designed the ladder system which exploited 3s and could easily win 100 units a shoe. We closed the table at Turning Stone NY with that system. The casinos quickly caught on and went to OTB4L where they are still at today. That is the history of Baccarat in a nut shell. I realized that this was all accomplished through shuffle and card prep technology just as it had been done in BJ.
People, including the casinos, were asking for my systems just as they had in BJ. I wrote some 13 books, including 9 on
Baccarat which were all about what was working at the time. My most frequent buyers were the casinos themselves. Yes, I kept changing because the game kept changing. During that time period casinos went from 3% Bac profits to 15% with some years as high as 26%. How? By shuffling against the way most players were playing. They are very good at that - don't ever let anybody tell you different. I was there! So were some of the other guys. They know. For instance, TB4L worked great in the '90's. Today, you'll get killed playing it. That is why I don't include it in NOR. BUT, every now and then..... and that is one of the shoe types we can exploit - among others. Are you beginning to get the picture?
Ellis,
Thank you for your detailed and thorough reply. So, if you played 20 shoes/day @ 45min./shoe in the 80's, that means your were
spending some 16 hours a day, 7 days a week playing baccarat? That's some dedication! Where I play (West Virginia and Maryland) it takes
between 1.5 and 2 hours to deal a shoe - which is okay for a NOR apprentice such as myself, but would probably frustrate a more experienced player.
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[You have often heard me say that no betting system or progression no matter how long, can, by itself, beat Baccarat.
Well this is mostly for public consumption. I don't want to argue with a world full of mathematicians but I have found 3 exceptions:
1.) Our own U1D2 straight OTB4L beat our own 10,000 shoe test to the tune of a 7% PA - way outside the standard deviation.
2.) U1D1M2 beat the same shoes the same way to the tune of a 34% PA. No Mathematician would believe this.
3.) Keith's 221 staking line betting system beats way more than its fair share of shoes.]
Ellis, I am impressed with the above percentages, i.e. the 7% and 34%, respectively.
However, I find it hard to understand that there would be such a HUGE difference between the two.
Why does UP1D1 exceed UP1D1 by such a large margin? And if so, why not just play the later exclusively
for a higher PA, and consequently, higher profit?
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I would not mind driving to AC as I really want to see how your guys go about your TABLE SELECTION.
Every little edge helps.
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Guys,
Many of you talk about having problems finding an open seat. I facedi the same issiues, where I was forced to play a difficult or marginal
shoe simply because all other tables were full. I would think that that would not be a problem in Atlantic City, as you could just walk over to a neighboring casino for a better game. What's your opinion? Also, which AC casinos have the most Baccarat tables? Thank you for sharing. Sakana
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"The 2nd P I bet and win. Next up, bet B and won. I bet B again but it turns up P (loss 1). No big deal, an opposite just happened so I'll bet a repeat on P, turns up B (loss 2). At this point I'm in damage control mode and following Mode 2 I go OTR for B."
EmeraldEagle,
Actually, by betting on second-in-a-row Banker, you opted for Mode-3 rather than 2. In Mode-2, you would have gone OTR after TWO losing OTB4L bets. Think of it this way, in Mode-3, you are a bit more stubborn and resist switching strategies longer. Thus, you opt to stick to the same strategy (OTB4L; S40; or F) for one extra bet. In any event, in this case, your move worked out... congrats!
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Guys,
Thanks for your reply, however, my main issue is whether these sites do anything
to improve our NOR game. If the shoes are computer generated, there is no bias!
Furthermore, is there even a clearly-defined shoe consisting of 68-75 (on average)
hands, the way the game is played at casinos, or are dealing with a continuous game
with no shuffles? I really want to practice NOR, but I want to do it the right way.
And I would love to hear what Ellis, Keith and Steve think.
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I have a quick question about baccaratonnet.com (and similar sites.)
Reading and listening to presentations by Ellis, Keith and Steve,
I thought that the only reason NOR members are able to beat casino baccarat
was due to SHOE BIASES. The stronger the bias, the more the shoe is exploitable
to one of the three NOR components. However, doesn't the above website use
an RNG to generate its shoes? If so, wouldn't that result in a perfectly Random
game and eliminate the biases?
Please, educate me on this as soon as possible, as I have only been practicing on
Zumma shoes, which are not as good as "real shoes," due to the ability to see how the remainder
of the shoe plays out. In fact, I welcome a reply from any members who understand this
and have experience using the aforementioned (or a similar) baccarat website. Thank you.
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Ellis,
Thank you for your detailed and informative reply. I will seriously consider going to a 4 bet with U1D2 progression.
However, you did not reply to my concerns about identifying the problematic streaks correctly. I feel that you might say
that I should just read the NOR Bootcamp Manual again, but I have read it many many times and still feel that I am not 100%
clear on the aforementioned point. For example, in S40, 3s will cause a player to lose three consecutive bets (in Mode 2); thus, what does
one do when faced with two consecutive 3s (i.e. 3-3)? Change to Mode 3? Switch to OTB4L etc.?
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Expert NOR Players,
I am basically still a beginner with NOR and want to make sure that
I have identified the nemesis for each respective system.
BTW, my betting progression is 1-2-3 (I will not make a "4" bet until I have many more winning shoes under my belt.)
S40: Nemesis: 3s. On the other hand it loves, 1s,2s and 5s. Now, what about 4s? Does it basically, break even when it encounters a 4?
I.e. It loses the 1 and 2 bet, but wins the 3 bet to even things out.
OTB4L: Nemesis: "Double 1s" and "4s." Loves 2s and 3s. Am I leave anything out?
F2/F3: Nemesis: Not really sure... Perhaps, not having a clear Strong Side, or having it interrupted by frequent 1s and 2s?
Loves runs of 3s, 4s and higher.
Please help me understand this, as I feel once I can ID the nemeses for each respective component, I would be able to play NOR much more confidently. One more question: For those of you using the 2-3-4-5-6 (U1D2) progression, how do you abide by the "8-unit" stop loss? After all, losing the first four steps of the sequence would already put you at -14... thus, unless you were at +12 prior to the losing sequence, you would now be at -2, which would allow the 6 bet. Or, are the "stop loss" rules more flexible for this higher-level sequence?
Thank you!
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Ellis,
I have been using a 1-2-3 progression, but have NOT gone to the 4 bet as
I am still uncertain as how to use it. It say in the manuals that you would ONLY use it
if it would have won earlier in the shoe. Could your please provide an example (from an actual
shoe, if possible)? Thank you.
Sincerely,
Sakana
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"1's occur 1 every 4 plays or 5 per col of 20
2s occur 1 every 8 plays or 2.5 per col of 20
3s occur 1 every 16 plays or 1.25 per col of 20
4 or mores also occur 1 every 16 plays."
Ellis,
How can 3s and 4s occur with the same frequency, i.e. once every 16 plays?
After all, since 3s is a shorter streak wouldn't it occur more often than 4s?
Please explain.
Sincerely,
sakana
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Steve,
Where did you post the thread explaining what to do with the OR count?
I am still new here when it comes to navigating the site.
Thank you,
Sincerely,
Sakana
Parx Trip 4-21-14 100% PA easy day
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
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BaccDJ126,
You mean you had 14 (Fourteen) Opposites back-to-back? Are you serious?!
Where do you find shoes like that? Out of this world!
Was the shoe over at that point...?
Congrats, of course.