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Baccarat IQ: Bead Road


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Hello all, I wanted to start a thread on the public side for the Baccarat IQ: Bead Road as well.

It's always best to join the private side for the in depth analysis, but feel free to ask questions here here as well.

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I had a chance to record a short live play session this evening. I've annotated my "bet selection thoughts" via text on the video. The text is in the video description (and below) Hopefully it will help those who don't speak English so they can run it through Google Translate and get answers and instructions.
 

 

Text from Video

Baccarat IQ: Bead Road – Short instructional Video

 

Start: I like to wait for 3 columns so I enter the first 3 columns.

Immediately I see this is a nice chop shoe and see the app has identified a bias.

C/S "Confidence" is 32 on both the  Down diagonal (/ Dn) and the derived bias (Big P). Both have a C/S of 2/1 which means the 2 times a pattern length of 2 has shown up, the pattern length of 2 has turned into a pattern length of 3. It has "continued" 2 times and "stopped" 1 time. This might be a little early to bet, but, the shoe is showing an O/R count of +5 which means the shoe is choppy (and I can see that with my eyes) so I bet for the chop.  P   Player wins...  Note: Use all your baccarat tools. For this bet, I liked that  / Dn and Derived (Big P) are both P and O/R count indicated choppy.

 

Bet #2 - Both / Dn and the derived bias have gotten stronger. The confidence factor was 32 now it is 50. We can see the app tracked that pattern lengths of 2, in the / Dn and derived bias have continued to pattern lengths of 3. Both have "continued" 3 times and stopped 1 time. For this bet, I like that both / Dn and Derived (Big B) both show B will continue the bias that is available in this shoe. They DO NOT have to agree, each shoe is different. O/R count still shows choppy, B is a "chop" bet, bet  B ... Banker Wins.

Note: The "confidence factor" is a number from 0 to 100, higher numbers are "stronger" numbers below 10 means the C/S bias is too close to 50/50. I do not bet every hand, I wait for the "strong" biases. Others play differently, this is just my way to play.

 

Bet #3 - So far this is a nice choppy game. The app has identified the bias and is "on" it. Again the / Dn and derived bias (Big P) have gotten stronger. The confidence factor has moved from 32 to 50 and now 60. We can see that patterns length of 2 have "continued" to patterns length of 3 a total of 4 times and have stopped only 1 time. Again, use all the baccarat tools including the app. I see that O/R count continues to rise, it's now +7 which means this is a choppy shoe. Both the / Dn and Derived show P and P is a "chop" bet. Bet P ... Player wins.

Notes: This is a strong "chop" shoe. All shoes will not have this strong of a bias. Keep in mind, do not bet every hand. I am only betting every hand in this shoe because chop is so dominant. Don't bet on weak biases, don't bet against runs and exit games where no bias exists.

 

Bet #5 - Chop continues. We have a C/S of 2/0 on the  \ Up and a C/S of 6/1 on the derived (Big P) now that the \ Up has been scored 2 times and it is showing P which will be a "chop" I will use it to consider my bet. Derived (Big P) remains strong and the O/R count is strong chop. Both indicators show P, P is the chop side so Bet P   Player Loses.

Notes: This is my first loss this tells me something in the shoe may be changing. So I will stop and wait. My style of play is conservative, I like to identify a bias that is "working" like the chop bias has been "working" in this shoe. I like to win 1-3 units from a bias. If that bias keeps going, I will stay on it until it stops. But WHEN it stops, I wait for the next bias to show up. Others play differently, this is just how I play. So since my last bet lost (and I am making a short instructional video), I will stop. This has been a strong chop shoe. It had some good exploits. Some shoes will not have any exploits. But the app has done a GREAT job of identifying the exploitable chop bias and showing us the plays that will continue the current "strongest" bias.

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I'm getting a lot of questions about the Baccarat IQ: Bead Road from FB, Reddit and email. I'll start to answer them here. If one person has a question, others probably have the same question. 

Question from FB:   "..... which is      better     linked or un-linked ..... "

Answer: The mode that shows the strongest bias aka the highest "confidence factor" is   better    . If linked shows the strongest biases, use linked. If Un-Linked is strongest, use un-linked. The Baccarat IQ: Bead Road tracks both linked and un-linked in real time so the user has more than one option to find a playable bias.

In some shoes, linked will be stronger, in some shoes un-linked will be stronger. Play and adapt to what the shoe gives you, don't try to force a "system" on to a shoe. And, don't bet against runs.
 

Example shoe below: Un-Linked showed the strongest bias at the same hand on the same shoe...That is the one I would consider first. Both linked and un-linked have identified that  "continues" has occurred 6 more times than "stop." But, unlinked is more ACCURATE and EFFICIENT because it found that bias with less instances. Unlinked has less risk.  Fewer bets = Less Risk and Less (potential) commission.

Linked - Strongest Bias / Confidence is  38 in the Down Diagonal (/Dn) statistic..... but un-linked is "stronger" .. look below.
image.png


Un-Linked - Strongest Bias / Confidence is  50  in the Down Diagonal (/Dn) statistic
image.png

Edited by XDN
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Working to get all the Videos in one place.

 

Here is the Folder. @XDN If i missed any get them in this folder if you make new ones or find any

https://vimeo.com/user/75458685/folder/18320331

 

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not by how many times they say they won.

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Question 1 from FB:   "...what if a statistic has a confidence factor of 100 and shows B(anker) but the derived (Big letter) shows player..."

Answer: First, understand that each of the 4 boxes are equally important. The big B or P is derived from the other 3 statistics, in simple terms, the derived follows the strongest recommendation for each hand that has one. Derived will outpace the other boxes when the shoe is presenting a consistent pattern.

Second, it's important to practice with the app (and any tool) before playing. The app does a great job alerting the user to biases that exist in a shoe, based off the bead road, but the user must also incorporate their own "Baccarat IQ" into the game. Do not bet every hand, wait for the good opportunities the app helps you identify in the shoe. If no biases exist, find a different shoe to play.

Back to the question: "...what if a statistic has a confidence factor of 100 and shows B(anker) but the derived (Big letter) shows player..."
It depends on the situation. I'll share some examples that come to mind. 
- First the analyze the counts - If both have low counts, C/S ~  0/1  1/0  etc. - Wait, no bet, there is not enough information.
- One statistic has low count, the other has enough to make a decision   C/S  ~  1/0  on B    C/S  5/2 on P
----- If P (C/S 5/2 in this example) has a good "confidence" factor, choose P
----- If P has low confidence factor - Wait for better opportunities - No Bet, not strong enough.
- Both have a good count  C/S  2-3+/2-3+
----- If B is stronger that P - Choose B
----- If P is stronger than B - Choose P
----- If both sides are nearly equally strong - Wait, no bet, this is a conflict.
----- What is the O/R count? Is it strong Opposite or Repeat? - A bet doesn't always have to match O/R but, it's good to also consider O/R.


Question 2 from FB:   "...what to choose if B when ties are off and P when ties are on..."
- Exactly the same as the list above (with the dashed points)

****Special notes to consider:
- When the derived bias (Big Letter) is "working" - It means the shoe is producing a consistent pattern. In this condition, the derived will typically out pace the other statistics. So when it is "working" I will play the derived until it stops working.
- With that said, I do look at ALL the other statistics continually to see if the bet I'm considering "makes sense."
- When derived is not working the shoe is not producing a consistent bias, it is continually changing. I'll look at  \Up -Hz /Dn
- I am a conservative player - Most of the time when I see a conflict, I don't bet. I wait until I see a strong statistic.
- Use every baccarat tool that you have. In every situation, no matter the counts, no matter the P/B/T showing. Analyze the shoe! For example, you've seen me type out "don't bet against runs" several times. If you have a shoe that is strong "chop" and you get a 2IAR or maybe even a 3IAR, don't keep betting "chop" all the way down the run. The first hand where "something changed" should get your attention! You may wait or place another bet or 2, but be alert when "something changes."
-Every "system" every "indicator" every "road" is a trailing indicator.
Just like all the statistics in the stock market or any other statistical analysis. It can take some time for the statistics to catch up to a drastic change (think perfect chop shoe suddenly has a 10IAR run, then goes back to perfect chop for example). In those cases when "something changes" in the shoe, I prefer to wait and stop betting.
- There are many situations that require adaptation, every scenario can't be documented because every shoe is different.
- With any "new" tool, it's smart to be very conservative until you learn it. Look for reasons NOT to bet as well as reasons to bet when staring out.

Edited by XDN
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Dragons and Pandas!

Baccarat IQ: Bead Road - Now With Dragons and Pandas.

The latest update to the Baccarat IQ: Bead Road is now live with a new feature, Dragon and Panda tracking. This new feature continues the quest to "Re-Imagine the Bead Road" and make our apps something special! Big thanks to @Craftsman for sharing his insights into how some players use them! Link to his Dragon and Panda thread is below the video.

It's simple to record Dragons and Pandas in the app, see the short demonstration video below.
As always, thank you for the support!
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=baccaratiq.beadroad&hl=en&gl=US

Edited by XDN
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