Bet Phoenix "Cutting it short"

[gablaw]

Hello gablaw

Okay i will have a go at it for ya....

After the first 8 plays i went with F2 and played it all the way thru because there was no 4 losses in a row ( maverick rules ) and finished at +9 highest bet 5 units playing the up1dwn2M2 progression..

also i played this shoe also with rd1 because there was a 4 in a row at plays 2 to 5 ( maverick rules play rd1 ) i played rd1 till play 36 i was at +4 units and it was a struggle so i stopped there and took my profit and went home happy lol...

but also i could of kept going and said when i hit +4 again i will stop and i did re hit +4 at play 39 so i stopped

I hope this helps and i hope i did this right

Dazza

Thanks Dazza. I guess I'm changing strategies too much. An 11 ZZ in the next shoe. Where was it when I needed it!

[Dazza]

Yeah when i was learning Maverick i also was trying to force myself to keep changing systems i have tried wait 2 losses then change and 3 as well but i think Mark is right with 4 losses and also using the right progression .....because the system you are playing can come back and win....when i was changing all the time i kept losing i would jump on f2 or rd and it would lose etc..

Dazza

[MVSeahog]

Anyone have a solution to shoes like this At BPH. I've been getting beaten up on them the last 2 days

P1412211122111

B421441112

P112

Gablaw,

Whew. Glad I wasn't there for that one. I hate those ugly things like that.

Anyway, at hand 9 I started RD1/H, mainly because I'm partial to it and that 4 and 2 on the Bank side kind of made up my mind about it.

At hand 17 I came up on my first try at losing the 4th bet, but it hit and brought the score back up to -1. Ugly, but livable so far. RD1/H wasn't winning but it also wasn't losing so I pressed on with it.

Several LLW sequences but it got back to zero at hand 26. A quick look showed RD1/H disparity at -5 but as a 4,2 had just showed up, I continued on with it. It's still not actually losing, so I'll keep it trying.

Another 4 bet at hand 30 and RD picked it clean again. Can't dump it now even if we are at -2. It's holding it's own. The only logical alternative at this point is running F3 due to NO THREES so far and a lot of 1's and 2's. NuSap is pointing to RD with a reading of 12 at this point and it's the MCE.

RD1/H starts hitting some nice wins and we actually see a +4 twice by hand 38.

Now it falls apart a bit. Hand 39 and 40 are RD1/H losers calling for a switch to B for hand 41. It also loses. As RD has been saving itself all game, I continue on with it and promptly lose the 4th hand at hand 42 at -6. This is where I would wait out the 3 hands and be positively PO'ed when they ended the shoe two hands later without me planning on it.

However, as it were I said "RD has been making the important wins all along, may as well give it one more try".

I stayed on RD1/H and it won the last two hands to finish at +2.

At least that's how my brain would have played it.

Looking at in "the big picture" I think F2 or F3 would have done better with a lot less thinking!

MVS (thanks for the workout!)

Edited June 26, 2010 by MVSeahog

[TomM]

20 in a row - so it is a hand shuffle? They wash new cards. How often do they change cards? 8 decks?

Right Ellis, 8 deck hand shuffled oversized cards. They only introduced the wash in the last two or three weeks. Prior to them initiating the wash the cards had the longest and most consistent straight runs I have seen since Caesars Tahoe prior to say 96 or 97. The shoes I've played lately have more 1’a and jump more often between short sections of dirty TB4L and same with OTB4L. They use to have more 6 or mores but now I am seeing many shoes that only produce several 4's and the occasional 5 or 6 or more. Not as productive but still good for Maverick play. I had to clamp down and play pretty close attentions now to switches if I want to get the same number of units as before. With the shorter runs and more mixed chop I have to make the Anti-bets and see that I will probably be hitting some of the super chop shoes with TB4L exploit in the future. But even now you can drop into a shoe with a couple ten in a rows in there. The oversized cards must handle differently so these live online casinos must have had to get used to these things. I wonder if they use the oversized cards in any B&M casinos around the world. I would not see any reason for them to use them in a real casino setting. Dublinbet has been using normal cards with the zoom camera function for years without any problem. Some of the dealers with small hands seem to struggle a bit with the large cards especially if they are new to them. I used to be able to predict some of the dealers signature but the turnover of dealers has been voracious lately. I don’t know what’s up there.

Update Sunday morning 5 am ish. I forget to mention I have never actually seen them change cards (like bring in fresh sealed decks or such) Maybe they just keep with the old decks until the code wears off. I just have never seen them bring in fresh cards. Sometimes a card will just refuse to scan and the Pit (camera/guy or whoever) will hand the dealer the proper card to replace the funky one and the game continues. I don't think these guys have many hard and fast rules on a lot of things, but they are extremely cautious to do everything in front of the TV running the current CNN broadcast or whatever. Kudos for that, however lately they are having major problems even keeping one table going. Earlier this evening I decided to try a shoe or two as I was a abit burnt out from overplaying the last couple days ( mainly because I am just to amped up on coffee and play until cocktail hour, lately around 8:00 am or so EST. I've become a night owl again recently. But last night the first shoe ( the one that started just after midnight of so on the T-1) for me took 3 hours and 40 some minutes to complete. It started out trash and in the 3rd column turned into a really good OTB4L shoe (I thought I had fallen asleep a was playing Dublinbet) but no way man I was in Costa Rica. They were having major problems with there feed and the next shoe was super slow even after they closed down the only other table open the $500.00 minimun job. I wonder what genius came up with that one. Do you really need a private table when your playing at home in you jammies ? I endured that for about half a shoe and then after the 3rd time I lost my 2 unit bet that was "late"and winning my one unit bets that were placed in the same time frame I just punched out and poured a tall one and thought I would just post this. My heart says they are just having internet trouble but last evening I was having a little trouble squaring that with the 2 unit bet was seemingly recognized and the little box poped up informing me I had past posted and the losing one unit bets recognized and seized when they lost. It happened to or three times in a brief time period and I still give them the benifit of the doubt unless I hear otherwise from members or other forums that are kicking this around. There are so may weird things going on now that it is hard to figure. I mean one five dollar minimum table and a $500.00 minimun table on a Saturday night when they only barely had enough feed to get one game out if you didn' mind playing 3 hour shoes online. The Betphoenix enigma continues.....

Edited June 27, 2010 by TomM

[gablaw]

Thanks, Tom

[ECD]

Tom, as you may know, I have never been a fan of on line casinos but this BP casino has my increasing interest. I would like to know what the O/R (C/S) counts are doing in these shoes??? What is Carlos' last name. Are they washing every shoe? What does the wash look like? All 8 decks at once? Fingertips or palms? Can you see green felt down through the cards or not. How long does the wash last.

It seems to me that in their haste to rid themselves of long runs they may have opened up other exploit situations. I have found that new casinos are often easy to beat because they haven't learned the tricks of the trade yet. With no runs longer than 6 they may be highly susceptiple to Matrix.

Big cards is a new experience. I have no idea how this might effect a hand shuffle but then neither do they.

How hard is it to register and play this casino?

I'm thinking it may be a good idea to follow up on this casino and figure out the best ways to Exploit this situation.

[ECD]

Not so fast MVS. That's only 44 hands and simple Matrix (net bet Ops vs Repeats U1D2 M2) with no stops and it scores a very easy +10 with a best position of +12 and a worst position of -4 early on at play 5 which it quickly recovers from. Your highest bet is 4 except for a 5 bet on the last play.

I'm very curious if their inexperience has made them particularly vulnerable to this style of play??? The O/R count never gets past 6 + or -. Your Player Advantage is 12%!

[ECD]

If I play James BP shoe starting P112 the same way, Marrix with NO stops, it hits +20 at play 66 with a lowest position of +2 in spite of the 7 in a row.

I'm thinking that BP's over shuffling to get rid of streaks makes them susceptible to Matrix.

Maybe with a little teamwork we can ALL make some money.

[gablaw]

I've got a bunch of recorded BPH shoes which I'm gonna try Matrix on. I can post some shoes if anybody else wants to run them.

Just checked in at BPH--$5 shoe is 1s, 2s and 3s then a 5 and 7 run bqck to back, and back to the 1s, 2s and 3s. This to me is a normal BPH shoe.

And Ellis, thanks for the tip on Matrix, There have been so many systems since then that I had forgot about it. And you can register at BPH pretty easily with no money and play for fun.

Best I can remember, you don't see the felt during the wash and I remember 2 girls picking up 5 or 6 cards from the edge of the pile and flicking them individually over the top of the pile.

After each shoe, they do some stripping but their shuffles are pretty bad with the big cards.

Edited June 27, 2010 by gablaw

[ECD]

Well, we would want shoes where they have already introduced the wash.

Explanation for the new guys, as well as some of the old guys: HOW did I arrive at that strategy at a glance???

The clue was when Tom mentioned the wash. A good wash makes opposites and repeats come out near equal - LOW O/R disparity. A quick glance at the shoes confirmed low O/R disparity with infrequent long runs. That is exactly what Matrix thrives on. That is what net betting thrives on, low disparity, whether its B/P disparity, O/R disparity or OTB4L/TB4L disparity. Low disparity hurts most systems but net betting thrives on it.

So the other clue was when someone said these shoes were troublesome.

Edited June 27, 2010 by ECD

[MVSeahog]

Not so fast MVS. That's only 44 hands and simple Matrix (net bet Ops vs Repeats U1D2 M2) with no stops and it scores a very easy +10 with a best position of +12 and a worst position of -4 early on at play 5 which it quickly recovers from. Your highest bet is 4 except for a 5 bet on the last play.

Good idea.

MVS (furiously rushing to find my Matrix notes)

[gablaw]

Here's the very latest I just got as the joker came out

P32211223211

P4712231

B142132431

B11211211111

[kevster]

I noticed that dublinbet and black orchid have been mentioned previously, but like some of you, I reside in the US. In another forum awhile back, someone had brought up the possibility of obtaining a foreign IP address while sill living here. I don't know enough about computers to tackle something like that, but ran across this yesterday: http://proxy.org/forum/1175967005.html - if it's possible, with dublinbet having such a good reputation, it might be something to think about if anyone can handle the tech issues of doing something like that. I hope I don't offend anybodies ethics by mentioning this!

[gablaw]

Well, we would want shoes where they have already introduced the wash.

.

You want recent? I got recent!

[gablaw]

BPH just had a run of 13, on P, no comish

[MVSeahog]

Yep, jumped over there to take a look. Decided to get in on the next shoe and 'poof!".

The table is offline as is the secondary table.

Something is amiss in Costa Rica I'm sure.

Hurricane season???

MVS

[ECD]

Here's the very latest I just got as the joker came out

P32211223211

P4712231

B142132431

B11211211111

Geez, that's so choppy you could beat it easy just betting opposites U1D2 M2!

[ECD]

Gablaw's 13 means that as a safeguard we need to have a cutoff number playing Matrix. A bet number that signals that prog to wait for a paper win to continue. I'm thinking that IF this Matrix favorability on BP holds up our safety net should be a relatively high bet entry number like 6 or so.

For instance: On a 13 in a row followed by a 1, If the losing side stops at 6 and if the winning side goes to a flat 2 when betting unopposed and back to 1 when it loses, a 13 in a row would end up scoring a +6.

Edited June 28, 2010 by ECD

[gablaw]

A 17 ZZ just happend. I tuned in just as it broke

[MVSeahog]

On tonight's shoe that I played, they've changed the shuffle one more time.

Now the girl takes all the cards, breaks them down into 8 "decks", stacks them the same way.

Now, as usual, she shuffles two of them at a time but they've added a half-assed mini card wash right after each decks shuffle!

It's really not hardly anything at all, but she did it for each of the 8 "decks". Kind of a fast canasta type shuffle just before putting them on the stack.

They're really trying to get those shoes under control.

MVS

[ECD]

BTW, here is a somewhat related post I put on BF in reply to John who thinks all is random. For you amusement:

John, since you insist that the way you see things as a relatively new player is the only way things can possibly be and since you persist to call me a scammer in spite of 30 years in the business with nearly zero returns, I don't think your post is worthy of reply and I think you will denounce any reply anyway whether you agree with it or not.

But, for the more open minded here I will explain this one more time.

in the "80s and early 90's casinos were struggling along with 6% of the drop in BJ. They realized that certain BJ shuffles preserved the game produced clumping in BJ, particularly 8 deck A.C. BJ. At the same time they noted that the more the cards were clumped the less the dealer broke and the less hands Basic Strategy won because Basic Strategy RELIES on RANDOM cards. They thereby improved their profits from 6% of the drop to today's 15% of the drop. All of this is published public record.

Meanwhile Minnesota Indian casinos, required by law to publish their BJ profit records in local newspapers, shocked the casino world by achieving profits of 50% of the drop using similar shuffle technology as well as more questionable methods. Again all public record.

The AC casinos followed up in Baccarat by dropping the then world standard Bac card prep and shuffle introducing BJ shuffles to Bac and ridding themselves of the extremely common long runs that were killing their profits. Casino Bac profits soared in direct proportion to Casino Bac card prep and shuffle technology and climbed from the published 3% to as high as 26% today with no changes whatsoever in the rules of the game. All public record.

Casinos discovered that long articulate washes and shuffles produced choppy Bac shoes while short washes and shuffles produced streaky shoes.

We used to time the wash and record the type of shoe each shuffle type produced. We were even ejected from Foxwood for timing the wash.

We used to also time shuffle machines to determine shoe type. We were never wrong! This worked very well forcing manufacturers to soundproof the machines. But there still is a way to do this on most machine types.

Shuffle machines went through a similar evolution. The first machines actually produced random cards causing casino profits to plument in BJ. All of a sudden Basic Strategy actually worked! The machines were sent back to the drawing boards. It was about the 5th machine redesign that began to approach the clumping control manual shuffle dealers had over BJ.

But just as created shoe biases can be used to your advantage in Bac, created clumping can be used to your advantage in BJ.

To demonstrate clumping so you'll understand it better, 20 tens in a row was so common in 8 deck BJ when I played full time that it wouldn't even raise an eyebrow by player or dealer alike. Now consider how rare 20 Banks is in Baccarat with the odds about 51% each play. Very rare isn't it? Now consider the odds of 20 tens in a row when the decreasing odds on each ten start at only 4 out of 13. It is statistically impossible isn't it. Yet we saw it many times per day and on Saturday nights often nearly every shoe. That should give you some idea of the control casinos have.

Random my ass!

You can get a crash course in all this watching the antics of the on line casino Bet Phoenix. They were getting far too many 20 in a rows with their shuffle technique with over size cards. Too many guys taking advantage with up as you win Fibs. So they introduced a wash and the whole thing reversed. Too choppy and too little Repeat /Opposite disparity. You could kill them betting Opposites or net betting Opposites vs Repeats. Their site keeps going down and back to the drawing board. Fun to watch. They should have studied their Baccarat history. So should you.

Knowing you John, you'll probably throw all this out as hearsay because it was before your time. Many kids today are stupid that way! Casinos are not stupid. They have far more control than you imagine and they know how to use it to their advantage. Hence 26% Baccarat profits in spite of 1.250 % commission.

[ECD]

Also BTW I chose NOT to tell BF members how to time a soundproof Bac shuffle machine. But I'll tell you guys.

The way I time a shuffle machine is to note what play we are in when the machine turns off. IF it turns off early in the current shoe - plays 10 to 20 or so, they are going for streak in the next shoe.

If it turns off late - after play 40 or so, they are going for chop in the next shoe.

This was so successful that the machine manufacturers had to soundproof the machines and remove the pilot lite.

But you can still do it with pedestal mounted machines. Sit at third base with your foot resting against the pedastal under the table. Ha, when it turns off it stops vibrating.

You heard it here first!

Edited June 29, 2010 by ECD

[gablaw]

Last BPH shoe

P131221172

P216233111

P42311333

Wish I'd played it. I got +33 playing RH straight thru from hand 9. A few 4 bets. U1D2M2

So much for totally choppy shoes.

[gablaw]

It seems to me that ties are above normal at BPH. So I counted last shoe--12 ties. It might be worth keeping track of them. Pretty good odds. Btw, was 78 hands in the shoe (unless when I came in the tote was showing hands from the previous shoe. They sometimes do that.) 78 units bet on ties, 96 units won.

[ECD]

Normal ties are about 1 in ten hands so a 78 hand shoe should have 7.8 ties on avg. So 12 is significantly more than normal.

Try as I might, I have never been able to associate high ties with any shuffle technique or shoe type or wash. You might get 20 and you might get 0 but that doesn't mean we should stop studying it.

I looked at the proposition of betting ties when you have seen 40 hands W/O a tie. Didn't work at all! So I tried betting ties when a shoe was high in ties. That didn't work either.

So I tried betting ties when the remaining cards were high in odd or high in even number cards. Didn't work at all in spite of sites that say it does.

I concluded that ties are strictly a random occurrence and the worst bet in the casino. Betting ties only makes sense in tournament play in desperation situations. However the Belgian who beat me out in the World Championship of Baccarat did so by betting ties. Go figure.

I think that players who bet ties are stupid - except for that damn Belgian!

Edited July 1, 2010 by ECD