Bet Phoenix "Cutting it short"

[ECD]

I see Sys 40 posted here in a couple of messages but I don't see a listing of that system anywhere on this forum.

Keith posted a link to it someplace but it is ridiculously simple:

Starting at play 2 bet opposites with either a 1,2 or a 1,2,3 up as you lose prog until you lose either 2 or 3 bets depending on whether 3s are running above or below normal. If 3s are above normal go 3 bets. If 3s are below normal go 2 bets. Once you have lost you 2 or 3 bets go on the run with a 1 bet. If you lose the 1 the next time you go OTR bet 2 and so forth.

Now on the shoe after the wash that Gablaw posted, that shoe had no 4 or mores so your 1,2,3 prog on opposites would have won EVERY prog at the 1 or the 2 or the 3 level and you would have had no OTR bets at all and scored +52 with a highest bet of 3.

Now, what I'm trying to get you BPH guys to do is whenever they do a wash, drop whatever you are doing and play sys 40 with a 123 prog. If you lose your 123 to a 4 in a row go on the run with a 1 bet. If you lose that 1 go right back to your 123 on opposites but on the next 4 in a row bet 2 on the run and so forth. If the shoe favors opposites as ALL their shoes have after a wash you will win. It's just a question of how much. OR if you are expecting no 5's, don't go OTR at all. Instead, don't bet until the run ends and go back to opposites with your 4 bet. That might be even better for the shoes we are seeing after a wash. But don't expect this situation to be around very long. They'll figure it out.

[Probac]

Keith posted a link to it someplace but it is ridiculously simple:

Starting at play 2 bet opposites with either a 1,2 or a 1,2,3 up as you lose prog until you lose either 2 or 3 bets depending on whether 3s are running above or below normal. If 3s are above normal go 3 bets. If 3s are below normal go 2 bets. Once you have lost you 2 or 3 bets go on the run with a 1 bet. If you lose the 1 the next time you go OTR bet 2 and so forth.

Now on the shoe after the wash that Gablaw posted, that shoe had no 4 or mores so your 1,2,3 prog on opposites would have won EVERY prog at the 1 or the 2 or the 3 level and you would have had no OTR bets at all and scored +52 with a highest bet of 3.

Now, what I'm trying to get you BPH guys to do is whenever they do a wash, drop whatever you are doing and play sys 40 with a 123 prog. If you lose your 123 to a 4 in a row go on the run with a 1 bet. If you lose that 1 go right back to your 123 on opposites but on the next 4 in a row bet 2 on the run and so forth. If the shoe favors opposites as ALL their shoes have after a wash you will win. It's just a question of how much. OR if you are expecting no 5's, don't go OTR at all. Instead, don't bet until the run ends and go back to opposites with your 4 bet. That might be even better for the shoes we are seeing after a wash. But don't expect this situation to be around very long. They'll figure it out.

Ellis - can you elaborate what 'bet 2' means? thanks

[steve6969]

Ellis - can you elaborate what 'bet 2' means? thanks

bet 2 = bet 2 units

[Probac]

I am trying to understand the OTR bets.

if you win the OTR 1-unit bet what do you do? do you continue with OTR & bet repeat with 1-unit bet until you lose once then go back yo betting opps?

if you lose the 1-unit OTR bet the moment you go OTR then the next time OTR bet is called for you bet 2-unit OTR. if you lose that 2-unit bet go back to 123 opp? but if you win the 2-unit bet do you continue with OTR & bet repeats with 2-units until you lose once then go back to 123 opps?

[steve6969]

if you win the otr bet keep betting 1 until you lose then start agian wit opp

[ECD]

Good question Steve and the answer of course is it depends. Are you seeing long runs or not. I almost always, after winning 1 bet OTR go back to opposites because I chose system 40 because the table was choppy. So ok, say you are playing 3 losing bets before going OTR. Fine the bet you won was on a 5 in a row. What is most likely at that point? Should I bet that the 5 will go to 6 or 7 or 8? Or should I bet that it probably won't. Ok, it already went 5. so if I bet a 123 on opposites the run has to go to 8 to hurt me. See?

Now if I'm seeing that many runs I probably will play a streak system not a chop system but once in a great while I'll go twice on the run but never more than that. See, you are making a judgement call but that call is based on pretty darn strong evidence. Do you really want to bet a run will go 9, that the run will defy all odds? We see 9 in a rows once every 16 shoes. We see 5 in a rows once every shoe. Which should you bet on? Esp at a table that is choppy to begin with. So will you always win? No! But it is best to go with the obvious odds.

[ECD]

See below where I just answered the same question for Steve - Brilliant minds think alike.

Edited July 31, 2010 by ECD

[nizm0racer]

Ellis,

When playing the regular version of System 40, let's say you get to a 3 or more bet and win it, do you go back to 1? Or do you go D1 or D2?

[nizm0racer]

I meant the OTR/ATR bets.

[ECD]

In the base version of Sys 40, starting at play 2 you bet 1,2 up as you lose on opposites. Upon losing both of those bets to a 3 in a row, you bet 1 on repeat. If your 1 OTR bet loses you go right back to opposites with a 2 bet or 1 if you are being ultra conservative. But after losing two in a row on opposites again, this time you bet 2 OTR (on the run) and if you lose, the next OTR bet is 3 and so forth. You are betting that eventually the shoe will have a 4 in a row and 499 out of 500 shoes do. That is the base version. You have made 3's the culprit and the ONLY thing you can lose to is 3s above normal (coming at a rate of more than one 3 every 16 plays) ( We like to see 3s at one per column or less.)

Now, if 3s are high, we make our culprit 4 so that we beat all 3s with a 3 bet. Simply change to betting 1,2,3 on opposites but still only 1 on 4 in a rows and next otr is 2. So see , you have separate independant progs, one on opposites and the other on repeats after a 3 or a 4.

Sometimes 2s are so low that you can make 2s the culprit. (streaky shoes) You really want the culprit to be whatever is LC (least common) A sap chart determines this if you need it. (That is probably a better use of a SAP chart than the SAP system itself).

Now, if 40 is doing well at a particular table and you've setted in on the culprit and are winning more bets than you are losing, you can start playing the whole thing U1D2 M2.

OK now, for BPH after a wash I recommend 3 bets on opposites and NO OTR bets at all. (If you lose your 3 bets (a 4 in a row) simply wait for the run to end and then continue betting O where you left off. This is the best way to play ALL super chop shoes.

To answer your precise question directly, you ALWAYS go to 1 after a winning 3. The only time you might not and go to 2 instead is when a shoe is so HOT you have decided to EXPLOIT and so you go to our Exploit prog U1D1 M2 or U1 D1 M3 B2. (base at 2 instead of 1. Make your stop win 30 in this case but ordinarily +20 playing straight U1D2 M2 or +10 playing the base version..

The beauty of system 40 is you can beat ANY shoe type by adjusting your culprit to LC, even streaky shoes.

A player could do very well by sticking to system 40 and becoming expert at it. You can make it beat ANYTHING!

Now, the only thing I left out is what do you do when you WIN your OTR bet. If you are seeing long straight runs at that table stay OTR until you lose. But you usually picked 40 because the table is choppy.

Hint, if I have made the culprit 3s I usually stay OTR for 2 bets.

If I've made the culprit 4 oy even 5 I only go OTR for 1 bet

If I've made the culprit 2's I stay OTR until I lose.

Look, and here's the thing, and I hope I can say this W/O hurting anyone's feelings:

If you have NO idea of the table you are playing (which is a mistake in the first place) you are a whole lot better off with Maverick if you can master it. But, if a table is demonstrating ANY kind of cosistency, and they almost always are (you should have picked a biased table in the first place) then you are better off molding Sys 40 to the table at hand. You can adjust it to virtually anything except total inconsistency. And if it is totally inconsistent I have to ask you WHY in hell are you playing that table? Get it?

[ECD]

Look, it's nice, in a lazy sort of way, that Maverick needs no table selection but THINK about it: that is more of a great ADVERTIsING feature than a great PRACTICAL feature. Maverick is EDUCATED guesses. 40 functions on specific hard shoe features. If you are playing 40 right, there is NO guess work. You are reacting to hard evidence. With 40, EVERYONE should be playing the same table the same way. No one has ever played the same shoe the same way with Maverick. Hell, some are telling me they can't even play the same shoe the same way a week later. If that sounds like sour grapes to some, so be it. But in fact, I'm talking practicality. Let's face facts! Many of you will never be able to learn Maverick while ANYONE can become peak expert with 40. Also think in terms of staying power. How long can you play Maverick or SAP? 40 is a walk in the park. ANYONE can learn it. The above rules are ALL THERE IS! The above logic is ALL THERE IS!

I'll tell you what! I'll pick the table. You play Maverick, I'll play 40. Wanna bet?

Edited July 31, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

Let me put it one more way. The next play is either an opposite or a repeat. You play Maverick and incorporate as many systems as you want. I'll stick to one very simple systen, System 40, the simplest system on tha face of the Earth and merely adjust to HARD evidence. Who is going to be right most often? This game is NOT about complexity. It is about being right. Now, I'll still be freash for the next shoe. How about you?

[nizm0racer]

Ellis,

Even with the regular version, if 3's are now high do you bet 1,2,3 or do you go 1,2, then a 1 bet then if that loses then OTR? I'm just trying to see if you're playing the regular version if you have your opposites bet up to a 3 hi or not.

[nizm0racer]

Also what's a recommended stop loss for the base version?

[ECD]

Questions from Nizmo:

? Stop loss for regular version?

Well a good stop win is 10 and we never want to make our stop loss more than our stop win. Just recognize that the important thing is to figure out your best culprit, 2's 3s or 4s or even 5s. Until you do that you should either flat bet at 1 if necessary or better yet don't bet at all. About the only way you could hit a stop loss is if the LC keeps changing. On the way to the stop loss you should be adjusting to the shoe at hand. It is BEST to settle in on your culprit before you even start playing.- From the tote board or other player's cards.

? Even with the regular version, if 3's are now high do you bet 1,2,3 or do you go 1,2, then a 1 bet then if that loses then OTR? I'm just trying to see if you're playing the regular version if you have your opposites bet up to a 3 hi or not.

Yes, go either 123 or 1,1.5, 2 on Ops once you've made the culprit 4s. 1's and 2s are 3/4 of all events so you want to win on those. Sometimes I even start at 112 until I see what is going on.

Once you've got it all down pat you should be able to do this W/O a SAP chart.

Edited July 31, 2010 by ECD

[Dazza]

Hello Ellis

could you please give us a graphical example of what to do when ( the betting progression )

1's are LC

or if 2's are LC

or 3 are LC

and if 4's are LC

Also what happens when two events are both LC ?

Thanks

Dazza

[steve6969]

Also what happens when two events are both LC ?

there can only be one LC. if both of the lowest are tied then theres no LC yet.

[nizm0racer]

Ellis,

For a game start with sys 40, do you think it's best to wait it out until you see an LC between the 2s, 3s, and 4s? Or do you like to start off the bat?

[John12345]

Is anybody having trouble logging onto bet phoenix? I can't get the 5 dollar table running. I keep getting a message saying this user is already logged in. It has been showing me this message all day.

Nevermind. The problem appears to be fixed.

Edited December 1, 2010 by John12345