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The 4S Manual Questions Thread


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jerseyslim

It would appear in the example shoes you put out, that you have violated the rules in regards to LC and going OTR under an LC. It would appear you have arbitrarily chose 4 as the LC. There weren't any bets made until after a 4 in a row were recorded. For some reason the 4's weren't even recorded early in the shoe and didn't begin to show up until hand 56 with an 8. It appears the LC for a good deal of this shoe should have been 3's. I've gone to the casino once per week for the last several weeks. I've for the most part only played 2 shoes each day. Yet during those few shoes I've seen streaks of 10, 13, and 14. What do you recommend doing so that after you've made your OTR bet, you don't get creamed when you run into streaks of this length and you are continuing your bets against the streak after your one OTR bet. I suppose you could either stop after your one time OTR bet or just keep betting with the streak. Either way you will then miss the first opposite bet after the streak ends which will alter your results but at least it shouldn't ruin your bank roll in one sweep.

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jerseyslim

One other question when starting the shoe. If you don't know if it's a chop or streaky table would you recommend waiting possibly 8-10 hands to determine whether you should be betting for streaks or chop via sys40?

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Jersey, everything in the sample shoe is exactly according to the manual posted. I've said on two occasions now that unless you have reason not to from previous play of the same color shoe start with 4s culprit

Now, look at the 4s column in the SAP chart. At no time was there any event with a lower LC number than the 4s.

Again, it is NOT 4 or mores we are recording under the 4s heading. It is confirmed 4s. Remember, I said you can't confirm the length os an event until it is ended by an opposite. Then you go back and retroactively fill in your SAP chart. A 5 or 6 in a row is not a 4. We are not interested in 5s or 6s or whatever, just actual 2s and 3s and 4s confirmed. There are no confirmed 4s until late in the shoe and 3s are never lower than 4s. There is nothing arbitrary about it.

I also completely covered the long run scenerio. Again, I said that if you come off the run and lose the first opposite bet you can wait for the run to end. OR, you can bet off on off on off on until the run ends. If you are seeing long runs at your casino you should choose either of those remedies. I don't usually bother with that when 4s are culprit unless I've been seeing long runs because it takes such a long run to hurt you. Where I play it is very rare to see anything longer than an 8. Cash Mgt would protect me from a long run anyway. One of the cash mgt rules I'll be teaching you in that chapter is once you hit 16 Never make a bet that could take you below +1. But I did say in the manual do not make a 6 bet in the 12345 prog or a 7 bet in the 23456 prog W/O waiting for a paper win. You can't get a paper win until the run ends. But if you want to stay on all runs until you lose because you see long runs where you play, that's a good idea and I'm sure you won't be the only one doing so.

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One other question when starting the shoe. If you don't know if it's a chop or streaky table would you recommend waiting possibly 8-10 hands to determine whether you should be betting for streaks or chop via sys40?

Right, don't start betting until you know what is going on. If you only know 40 start with 2s culprit when the count favors - and unless your SAP chart already says otherwise start with 4s culprit in a + favorable count. If you know RD1 that is a better system for - count. We'll be doing RD1 next.

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jerseyslim

Sorry Ellis............I knew the 4's were different with having a value of 8 but I didn't know you only count the 4's. Sorry for the over sight.

Jersey, everything in the sample shoe is exactly according to the manual posted. I've said on two occasions now that unless you have reason not to from previous play of the same color shoe start with 4s culprit

Now, look at the 4s column in the SAP chart. At no time was there any event with a lower LC number than the 4s.

Again, it is NOT 4 or mores we are recording under the 4s heading. It is confirmed 4s. Remember, I said you can't confirm the length os an event until it is ended by an opposite. Then you go back and retroactively fill in your SAP chart. A 5 or 6 in a row is not a 4. We are not interested in 5s or 6s or whatever, just actual 2s and 3s and 4s confirmed. There are no confirmed 4s until late in the shoe and 3s are never lower than 4s. There is nothing arbitrary about it.

I also completely covered the long run scenerio. Again, I said that if you come off the run and lose the first opposite bet you can wait for the run to end. OR, you can bet off on off on off on until the run ends. If you are seeing long runs at your casino you should choose either of those remedies. I don't usually bother with that when 4s are culprit unless I've been seeing long runs because it takes such a long run to hurt you. Where I play it is very rare to see anything longer than an 8. Cash Mgt would protect me from a long run anyway. One of the cash mgt rules I'll be teaching you in that chapter is once you hit 16 Never make a bet that could take you below +1. But I did say in the manual do not make a 6 bet in the 12345 prog or a 7 bet in the 23456 prog W/O waiting for a paper win. You can't get a paper win until the run ends. But if you want to stay on all runs until you lose because you see long runs where you play, that's a good idea and I'm sure you won't be the only one doing so.

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Sorry Ellis............I knew the 4's were different with having a value of 8 but I didn't know you only count the 4's. Sorry for the over sight.

That's what I'm here for. In the SAP System we are interested in 4 OR MORES because that is how THAT system works. But in system 40 we have no interest in the or mores, just plain ol 4's. Several of the old timers, including myself, didn't see that at first so you are in good company. I'm just glad it finally occurred to me how to do this beat. Had I left it at 4s+ with a 4 multiplier instead of 8 it would have screwed up the whole system because 4s would almost never win LC. You can see from the sample shoe that would have been devastating to System 40. That's why they pay me the big bucks.

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BTW the reason we start with 4s culprit when there are no opposing indications, and there usually won't be, is because as long as we can keep 4's culprit we beat all 1's, 2s and 3s which is 7/8ths of all events. BUT, we can't KEEP 4s culprit when SAP dictates otherwise because that would make Sys 40 a purely mechanical system with only a 50% win rate just like all the systems we see elsewhere on the internet. We aren't there to break even. That is why BTC has the only winning systems on the internet. We are the only ones understanding and incorporating the SAP concept. We invented it. Think of SAP as a little genie on your shoulder telling you what to do. And we can use it again when we get to OTB4L. And RD1.

Edited by ECD
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Hello Master Ellis

I'm not realty understand the following.

(To make the culprit 3s, you bet 1 and 2 on opposites and 3 on repeats.

To make the culprit 4s you bet 1,2 and 3s on opposites and 4s on repeats.

To make the culprit 2s, you bet 1 on opposites and 2 on repeats.)

thank you.

aaron

Let me try putting it in different words:

You always bet opposites except you bet OTR:

directly under all 2s when 2s are culprit.

directly under all 3s when 3s are culprit or

directly under 4s when 4s are culprit

or I could say it yet another way:

When 2s are culprit you go OTR after ONE losing opposite bet

When 3s are culprit you bet OTR after 2 losing Op bets

When 4s are culprit you bet OTR after 3 losing Op bets

then,

With 2s culprit and OR - you stay OTR until you lose

With 3s culprit and OR + you stay OTR for 2 bets

unless you find your second bet usually losing - Then only go 1 bet

with 4s culprit and OR + you only stay OTR for 1 bet

except that in - OR counts or when you are seeing long runs you stay OTR until you lose.

How's that?

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I'm getting that sinking feeling again that there is someone out there still scratching their head wondering what in hell we are talking about but can't even formulate a question. If so, you need to be reading the manual again and again and also the questions thread. Remember, there is no such thing as a dumb question on this forum. I don't bite but sometimes I get a little testy after long hours of typing. Pay no mind. We ALL started from scratch.

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jerseyslim

Ok, I'll bite again. So we start a shoe in one mode or the other. If we don't know what mode it is, I guess it doesn't really matter. So after two losses in a row, I'm going to switch to the opposite mode I was in, let's say I started in chop (40s)chop, and then go to RD which follows the prior hand. So I made bets of 1 unit and lost, then 2 units which I lost, and now I'm in a new mode. Will I continue with the next bet in the sequence which is 3, using a 1,2,3,4,5, or do I start my progression back at 1. That would be more conservative and if you're more aggressive just continue up the ladder from the last mode. Do I understand you correctly Ellis?

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Jersey, read the chapter on System 40 shoe start tips again. First, you would not start betting until you have an OR count. That tells you what mode to play.

But even before all that you want to know if the table is basically Choppy Streaky or Neutral. You have the tote board to tell you what the current shoe is doing. Always note the shoe color. But you'd like to know about the prior shoe and the shoe before that.

Fortunately Baccarat players are the friendliest in the casino because unlike BJ, nothing you can do effects the game. So ask and look at the player cards of the prior shoes. Choppy, Streaky or Neutral. BTW don't ask the dealer.

If at all possible, you want to start in the right mode. You want to AVOID betting for the sake of betting. Get the lay of the land. The more you are forced to change modes the worse off you are. Don't bet until you know. If there is no other way to know keep an OR count until you know. then flat bet until you know for sure.

Remember your first task upon arriving at the casino was to find the chopiest or streakiest or Neutralist table you could find. That is what separates the players from the gamblers.

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System 40N:

Don't attempt this until you have regular System 40 down pat.

First: When do we deploy this?

1. When the OR count can't seem to make up its mind between + and -. It keeps crossing 0.

2. When regular System 40 keeps winning close to half its bets

I get the general idea for the 2 points. The part that I don't get it is when exactly to start and stop.

How much history do we need?

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jerseyslim

Well spoken Ellis. When I go to the casino, as I did today, I was the first one there as always so I can sit where I want, and have it established a non smoking table. So at that point, there has been no prior history, and they have no tote boards. I've heard you mention several times about the color of the shoe. I've never heard that term before, and frankly don't know what the color is or is about. I went this morning prior to seeing your post on RD. I had gone over several shoes that I had problems with in practice. I used your choppy shoe 40S as was illustrated here yesterday. So what I decided to do was play the chop system or RD system that I know of from Maverick for a change rather then ADOT. The first shoe I checked the count and it was positive. I waited until hand 10 to jump in. The count was only slightly positive and hovered around 0 and +1. It was alll I had to go by so I jumped on board. By hand 26 I had 10 units profit so I decided I had half my daily goal so that was it as far as real betting. Well hand 26 was the high of the shoe. The shoe started out slightly streaky. This shoe went back and forth between a + and - count for the first 20 hands. Then from hands 20-30 it got streaky. Then for the next 15 hands or so danced on both sides of 0. Once I got into hands 50+ it took off like a rocket. So what appeared to be slightly streaky turn back to choppy then back to streaky again. I don’t know how you are supposed to adjust to this when it’s not consistent one way or another and in fact jumps back and forth and eventually takes off like a rocket in the end. However, I made 10 units and if I stayed on would have still ended up with 8 units but I just don’t know how you are supposed to adjust to these kind of swings. At home I worked this with just the chop method and it was a real nightmare. When I got on streaks I went one hand OTR then waited for the run to quit and move over. This shoe at one time had an LC of 3 and then 4 then back to 3.

Anyhow, I wanted to work the chop method on a shoe as you sent us last evening. So the second shoe the first hand was player and the second was banker so I said I’m jumping in on this now. Now this shoe stayed choppy all the while by the count. It’s at the same table that was a good deal streaky the shoe before and now was nothing but chop. So I picked the right shoe without knowing. I figured if it went streaky I’d hop on RD1. If this was a choppy table, it didn’t show it really in the first shoe as it did in the second so I’m not quite sure about when you say a table is choppy or streaky. I played this one for 32 hands since it was doing nicely. I wound up with 14 units on this one. So for two shoes I finished up 24 units for the day.

Now it appears you are combining Sys40 and RD so I’ll be interested in what you post about this method. So here’s the shoe. Shoe 1 I played in RD! mode and later played at home with Sys40 chop method that to me was a disaster. Second shoe actual chop shoe played in casino.

P1322121242

B4212112112111

B241171445111.

Shoe 2 Chop shoe

P111213511112

B131112211

Jersey, read the chapter on System 40 shoe start tips again. First, you would not start betting until you have an OR count. That tells you what mode to play.

But even before all that you want to know if the table is basically Choppy Streaky or Neutral. You have the tote board to tell you what the current shoe is doing. Always note the shoe color. But you'd like to know about the prior shoe and the shoe before that.

Fortunately Baccarat players are the friendliest in the casino because unlike BJ, nothing you can do effects the game. So ask and look at the player cards of the prior shoes. Choppy, Streaky or Neutral. BTW don't ask the dealer.

If at all possible, you want to start in the right mode. You want to AVOID betting for the sake of betting. Get the lay of the land. The more you are forced to change modes the worse off you are. Don't bet until you know. If there is no other way to know keep an OR count until you know. then flat bet until you know for sure.

Remember your first task upon arriving at the casino was to find the chopiest or streakiest or Neutralist table you could find. That is what separates the players from the gamblers.

Edited by jerseyslim
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Well thought out Jersey. You are definitely starting to think Baccarat rather than think like a gambler.

A couple of your discriptions pointed to Sys 40 N which is really the same as RD N. We'll be getting into that. Also, you aren't yet playing RD 1 as perfectly as possible because I haven't taught you how yet.

My next post here may perk your interest even more.

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jerseyslim

Don't tease me Ellis. LOL

Well thought out Jersey. You are definitely starting to think Baccarat rather than think like a gambler.

A couple of your discriptions pointed to Sys 40 N which is really the same as RD N. We'll be getting into that. Also, you aren't yet playing RD 1 as perfectly as possible because I haven't taught you how yet.

My next post here may perk your interest even more.

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jerseyslim

By the way, if you are talking about net betting Sys40 chop, I'm a step ahead of you because I did a couple of shoes that way also, and did pretty good with that although I don't know what rules other than simply net betting it that you may have come up with. I've put your forum and posts to good use, doing a lot of work on my own because I intend to do this on a professional basis since I'm newly retired, and have the time and now have the location within an hour of my home. I had my own business and decided to retire at 62 and enjoy the rest of my life.

Well thought out Jersey. You are definitely starting to think Baccarat rather than think like a gambler.

A couple of your discriptions pointed to Sys 40 N which is really the same as RD N. We'll be getting into that. Also, you aren't yet playing RD 1 as perfectly as possible because I haven't taught you how yet.

My next post here may perk your interest even more.

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jerseyslim

Ellis............I've only been in the forum for a very short time. But my thoughts on you are that you're a man of high intelligence and there isn't another person on this planet that knows the game of baccarat more than you. I also believe that you, just as a good lawyer, woudn't ask a question unless he already knew the answer. I know you're looking to draw some discussion here and I'm hoping there is some, but if not, let's here what you have in mind for this mind boggling question.

For the far out thinkers among us:

It occurs to me that we are now playing 40 as perfectly as it can be played. I'm trying apply the same to RD, but its a brain twister until you look at it in different lingo.

When we say go OTR under a two in a row we are also saying:

After one loss.... or after ONE REPEAT

SAP does not track opposites in a row, just repeats in a row

a 2 is one repeat

A 3 is also 2 repeats in a row

A 4 is also 3 repeats in a row

So we are tracking and properly reacting to Rs in a row but what about Os in a row to play RD perfectly. How do we do that?

See, LC among Rs in a row we have for Sys 40

But how to we get Os LC? for RD

Which is LC among single 1's, double 1's and triple 1's. How do we know, How do we track it?

But it seems to me that if in RD we know which is LC that we can play RD far better than ever before just as we are playing 40 better than ever before.

I'm sure the info is there waiting for us to decipher it. But I blew my brain out just trying to figure out how to ask the question. Any ideas?

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Here's a clue:

Single 1's are half of all events.

Double 1's occur at half the frequency of Single 1's.

Triple 1's occur at half the frequency of double 1's

So the 50% rule applies to Opposites exactly the same as it applies to Repeats.

We just never had a reason to look at it that way before. But perfect RD play demands we look at it now.

We probably should have considered this phenomenon with SAP. It just never occured to me. Well, better late than never.

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Jersey, condider this:

Winning Baccarat is not based on luck.

There is no such thing!

Elvis is DEAD!

There are no leprechauns!

Winning Baccarat is based on information just like winning BJ or winning sports betting or winning anything.

The more information you have and the sooner you have it, the better off you are!

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jerseyslim

Just got this last post before heading out to a birthday party for two of my grandchildren. So I won't get time today to think about what you're saying, but it sounds like a lot more than just net betting sys40. You've got me very intrigued about this I must admit. I did do a net bet sys40 on that shoe I put out there which had difficulty with simply sys40. I wound up having a high of +11 which is good because many times I quit at +10 and it had a low of -2. If you'll recall with RD1 which is how I did it in the casino, I had a high of +10 and a low of -6. Of course that was my interpretation of RD1 which I did use F2 during part of the shoe. The net betting didn't require me to think if I should be F2 or RD1 but I achieved slightly better results net betting and didn't have the larger drawdown that I experienced from AD1/F2. You've got me on the edge of my chair, and I'm looking forward to "your solution" to this dilemma. Wish I had more thought time but I'd probably not have an answer anyhow.

Here's a clue:

Single 1's are half of all events.

Double 1's occur at half the frequency of Single 1's.

Triple 1's occur at half the frequency of double 1's

So the 50% rule applies to Opposites exactly the same as it applies to Repeats.

We just never had a reason to look at it that way before. But perfect RD play demands we look at it now.

We probably should have considered this phenomenon with SAP. It just never occured to me. Well, better late than never.

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Ellis............I've only been in the forum for a very short time. But my thoughts on you are that you're a man of high intelligence and there isn't another person on this planet that knows the game of baccarat more than you. I also believe that you, just as a good lawyer, woudn't ask a question unless he already knew the answer. I know you're looking to draw some discussion here and I'm hoping there is some, but if not, let's here what you have in mind for this mind boggling question.

OK, I think I see the beginnings of a solution.

In System 40, except for our treatment of the 4 column we are using our standard SAP chart which, when you think about it, actually tracks Repeats in a row. But in every Baccarat shoe there are really two games going on: the Repeat Game and the Opposite Game. For instance when we net bet O vs R we are actually playing two separate games, an R game and an O game.

We are the only ones in the Baccarat World that recognize that on avg. ZZ runs are just as plentiful and just as long as straight runs. EVERYONE else gets this wrong because they count the length of ZZs incorrectly, leaving off the first play of every ZZ run. This we KNOW for an absolute certainty because in the long run there are just as many opposites as repeats. The normal frequency of Occurrence of ZZ runs of certain lengths is EXACTLY the same as straight runs and can be computed exactly the same way with the 50% rule.

Therefore for RD we can construct our SAP chart exactly the same way. But we track ZZ runs instead of straight runs. I'll show you how to do this.

I've mentioned to you before that System 40 is the strongest Chop system in existence. Now, played this way RD will be the strongest Streak system in existence. And, we are teaming them together.

The only drawback I see is I don't think we can realistically keep both charts in the same shoe. Too time consuming. This makes it all the more important to KNOW whether your table is favoring streak or chop BEFORE you start playing. But in all reality, we should be doing that anyway.

And don't forget the principle of "Overlap". Both systems can overstep the streak vs chop line significantly and still win, just as the sample shoe did.

Now if you are not a math head and I'm talking Greek to you, don't worry about it. Playing it will be simple once explained. But, the math heads here will tell you, We are looking at a Baccarat Breakthrough!

Edited by ECD
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I've put your forum and posts to good use, doing a lot of work on my own because I intend to do this on a professional basis since I'm newly retired, and have the time and now have the location within an hour of my home. I had my own business and decided to retire at 62 and enjoy the rest of my life.

Jersey,

If you think you're going to have more free time now that you're retired, you're in for a rude awakening!!

I retired (actually forced out) at 60 and thought I'd have all kinds of free time due to the nature of my previous work keeping me away from home about half of the month.

WRONG!

I think I've got less free time now and I can't even imagine how in the heck I got anything done at home when I was still working!! My dad told me that same "no free time" thing when he retired and I thought he was making a joke or something! He was right!

So, welcome to the ranks of the "retired folk" in the neighborhood and try not to run out of free time now!

MVS

Edited by MVSeahog
Slightly off topic but we can move it if need be.
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