System 40 Advanced

[ECD]

When using the 3,4,5 limited , (I like it) and you need to switch strategies you probably just lost 12 units (-3, -4, -5). What unit buy-in amount do you recommend for the 345 prog?

20 should do fine. Also, at the beginning of a shoe, consider not betting a 4 until you have won a 3. In other words if you lose your initial 3 bet, stay at 3 until you win. Also, depending on the table min. your could start at 1 or 2 and work your way up to the 3. It all depends on how confident you are in the system you selected. Usually you are least confident at the beginning of a shoe, but not always. Often, that color shoe has been doing the same thing for hours.

Or early in the day, you might know what shoe type the morning card prep consistently produces. That one tip is worth thousands because I've won thousands by just knowing what a casino's morning card prep produces. Most casino's go for chop (40) or neutral (OTB4L or 40).

But when all the players at a table win, be ready for the casino to radically change the shoe type. Never fails.

Also, when you lose a 345 you can always bet 0 until you win, esp if you are going to change systems.

In other words, when you have no idea of what to do, don't do anything until you do. Don't bet real money for no reason. ALWAYS know what you are doing and why.

We killed Hollywood because the morning card prep consistently produced chop. So that is when we played. A casino doesn't want to give a guy like me that huge an advantage. But they did!

The same thing happens in BJ. That is how I learned those tricks.

When I played BJ full time in A.C., by the time everyone else was getting out of bed, I had already made my $2000 for the day. So after a free breakfast at their finest restaurant all my attention was devoted to finding a game I could EASILY beat to avoid going backwards. THOSE were the days!

[ECD]

Above is thread #149. This is the most confusing thing for me in everything I have read so far. Can you explain it differently or refer me to an example shoe which it shows this.

Ha, that's because those last two paragraphs were not really part of the rules. I was merely explaining the reason I changed my original F2 rules.

See, my original F2 rules stated. "Follow the 2 but when you change sides you must stay on the new side for a minimum of 3 bets to avoid losing to the TTs (BB PP BB PP). That rule made your losing pattern a 2 on the wrong side followed by a 3. You would lose 5 bets in a row. But when I made that rule, we were playing F2 as a Universal system, not as a streak system.

With 40A we are using F2 strictly as a streak system.

Therefore we want our losing pattern to be a chop pattern.

Our choice of losing patterns is either a 2,3 (original rules) or a 2,1,2 (New rule). See, as soon as you say: "When you lose the first bet on the other side, switch right back immediately" you change the losing pattern from 2,3 to 2,1,2.

Well both of those losing patterns are the same length (5 plays) so they both occur equally overall. (Once every 64 plays.) But you only lose to either pattern when the starting 2 is on the wrong side. That changes the frequency of both patterns to once every 128 plays.

But, as soon as you say you're going to play F2 as a streak system only, you want the losing pattern to be a CHOP pattern simply because you get more streak patterns in streak shoes than chop patterns. Simple arithmetic.

Therefore once you say F2 is a Streak system you want the losing pattern to be a CHOP pattern. Common sense.

Our choice is 2,3 or 2,1,2.

The 2,3 is composed of 2 opposites and 3 repeats.

The 212 is composed of 3 opposites and 2 repeats.

Which will you see least in a Streak shoe? The one favoring opposites or the 212 because streak shoes favor repeats, not opposites.

Sure, its a small thing. But Baccarat is the art of getting a lot of small things right. - A game of odds - Pure Calculus.

Consider this: Baccarat is the #1 profit maker for the casino. Yet their edge is only 1.25% (commission)

That 1.25 % is what we are striving to overcome. How many little tricks of the trade does it take to overcome 1.25%.

Answer, not many. But lots of little tricks add up. Get it now?

Edited October 23, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

Getting back to the 345 or getting back to shoe starts in general, in the past, we have deployed what we call a 0 start and also a 00 start. These worked quite well esp when you lacked confidence in your system selection. After selecting our system, we would bet 0 until we won. Or until we won a 00. This gives you a free look at the system you selected in case you decide to make adjustments.

Right, its another little thing but LITTLE things add up.

Perhaps now you are beginning to see why I say, and continue to say: Your FIRST duty upon entering a casino is to find the MOST biased table in the casino. At a biased table, system selection becomes routine and mistake free.

FLYING starts are a great thing!

Now at Hollywood we enjoyed MANY flying starts. Hey, +27 in the first col. is a flying start. How did we do that with only one table??? Easy - We knew what their morning card prep produced. Game over!

[victorino402]

Therefore once you say F2 is a Streak system you want the losing pattern to be a CHOP pattern. Common sense.

Our choice is 2,3 or 2,1,2.

The 2,3 is composed of 2 opposites and 3 repeats.

The 212 is composed of 3 opposites and 2 repeats.

Which will you see least in a Streak shoe? The one favoring opposites or the 212 because streak shoes favor repeats, not opposites.

Sure, its a small thing. But Baccarat is the art of getting a lot of small things right. - A game of odds - Pure Calculus.

Consider this: Baccarat is the #1 profit maker for the casino. Yet their edge is only 1.25% (commission)

That 1.25 % is what we are striving to overcome. How many little tricks of the trade does it take to overcome 1.25%.

Answer, not many. But lots of little tricks add up. Get it now?

Thanks. Yes I get it now. With that, doesn't RD1 in some cases lose to the same 212 pattern?

If so, then what is the key to choosing F2 over RD1? My guess is if there are 1's or ZZ's showing up choose RD1. If not choose F2.

Furthermore, isn't F2 the same as making 1's the culprit in S40. Is there a difference?

[jerseyslim]

Another successful trip to Mt. Airy casino yesterday. Played 2 shoes with system 40 and sap. One shoe +20 units the other +23. I'd post them but for some reason I can't get my scanner to work.

[ECD]

Good job Jersey!

Don't you ever lose anymore?

How long have you been a member now?

BTW, I remember when you didn't know an Opposite from a Repeat.

I think you are a very positive inspiration for the new guys!

BTW, that reminds me: Any of you guys who were a little worried about Black Tiger, he's beginning to "get" everything at the same time now. Just had to overcome a little language shock.

[ECD]

Thanks. Yes I get it now. With that, doesn't RD1 in some cases lose to the same 212 pattern?

Correct, the difference is straight RD1 loses to all 212 patterns unless you modify to RD2 and only bet straight down after 2 opposites instead of 1 but I don't want to confuse the issue with that just now. F2 only loses to a 212 if the initial 2 is on the other side, otherwise it kills 212.

If so, then what is the key to choosing F2 over RD1? My guess is if there are 1's or ZZ's showing up choose RD1. If not choose F2.

Ha, you started out fine but then reversed yourself.

Just remember this:

F2 loves 1's whether Sporadic (single) or multiple (ZZ)

RD1 HATES all forms of 1's. Only chose RD1 when 1's are in short supply or non existent. Recognize that if you DON'T have 1's, you MUST have straight runs following straight runs, the only advantage RD1 has. A lack of 1's and runs following runs is the same thing. You'll only be selecting RD1 maybe 10% of the time overall.

Furthermore, isn't F2 the same as making 1's the culprit in S40. Is there a difference?

No, If there were such a thing as 40 with 1's culprit you would strictly be betting repeats and lose every bet to a ZZ.

F2 bets straight down in a ZZ run and kills them because there is no 2 to cause you to change sides.

Edited October 23, 2010 by ECD

[victorino402]

Just remember this:

F2 loves 1's whether Sporadic (single) or multiple (ZZ)

My mind is suffering paralysis by analysis. Doesn't S40 love 1's as well if the culprit is 3 or 4?

Doesn't S40 beat all ZZ's and all 212's when the culprit is 3 or 4 while F2 loses to half ZZ's and half the 212's? What advantage does F2 have over S40?

Also, if RD1 is only used about 10% of the time, what percentages are S40 and F2 used?

[jerseyslim]

I've been very fortunate on my trips to PA. I had one bad trip a month ago or so, but now that I'm using sys40 along with the saps, I think it's really improved my playing and I feel I have a lot of control over my game. I've been here since July. It was overwhelming at first seeing all this new terminology and then trying to decide just which system or sytems I wanted to use. But I must say I got a lot of help from you and other members in this group. It's been the best fee I've ever paid out. I still use the opposite signs designating a repeat from an opposite but that only really matters to me.

Good job Jersey!

Don't you ever lose anymore?

How long have you been a member now?

BTW, I remember when you didn't know an Opposite from a Repeat.

I think you are a very positive inspiration for the new guys!

BTW, that reminds me: Any of you guys who were a little worried about Black Tiger, he's beginning to "get" everything at the same time now. Just had to overcome a little language shock.

[muling427]

Or early in the day, you might know what shoe type the morning card prep consistently produces. That one tip is worth thousands because I've won thousands by just knowing what a casino's morning card prep produces. Most casino's go for chop (40) or neutral (OTB4L or 40).

!

What are the morning card prep ? and how can you study and analyze them ?

[ECD]

My mind is suffering paralysis by analysis. Doesn't S40 love 1's as well if the culprit is 3 or 4?

Yes, 40 loves 1's even more than F2. But 40 is your chop sys. (+OR count) and F2 is your Streak System (-OR count)

40 bets primarily Opposites and F2 bets primarily Repeats

Doesn't S40 beat all ZZ's and all 212's when the culprit is 3 or 4 ?

Correct!

while F2 loses to half ZZ's and half the 212's?

F2 beats all ZZ and all Sporadic 1's. It loses to less than half of the 212s but you don't expect a lot of 212s in -OR count shoes. That is the purpose of your OR count. You seem to be losing sight of that.

What advantage does F2 have over S40?

F2 wins every bet in straight runs from the 2nd circle on plus it wins the first circle more than half the time while also beating ALL Sporadic and ZZ runs. It is the best streak system in the world. That is why we use it for that purpose. 40 merely handles straight runs and misses the vast majority of the circles in straight runs. But it kills all forms of chop. That is why it is our chop system.

Also, if RD1 is only used about 10% of the time, what percentages are S40 and F2 used?

While a particular table usually favors one of the three, overall:

40 about 60%

F2 about 30% and

RD1 about 10%

But, on a streaky day you could end up playing F2 all day long. The same for RD1.

And on a choppy day, 40.

[victorino402]

F2 beats all ZZ and all Sporadic 1's. It loses to less than half of the 212s but you don't expect a lot of 212s in -OR count shoes. That is the purpose of your OR count. You seem to be losing sight of that.

I'm not really losing sight of the O/R count. I guess my problem is when I am looking at the SAP chart and LC (2's) has a huge disparity (10-0-16-16) then 2's start coming back to the pack. I'm doing well and it is still LC but in the meantime I'm getting killed by continuing to bet against it. The O/R is still about the same but I'm losing to the LC comeback. I hope you understand what I mean. If so, what should I do in that situation? Thanks for all your help.

[jerseyslim]

What I do is if an LC isn't holding, don't continue to bet it until it does or something else becomes LC. I do the same thing with MC. If it ain't working, don't keep betting on it.

I'm not really losing sight of the O/R count. I guess my problem is when I am looking at the SAP chart and LC (2's) has a huge disparity (10-0-16-16) then 2's start coming back to the pack. I'm doing well and it is still LC but in the meantime I'm getting killed by continuing to bet against it. The O/R is still about the same but I'm losing to the LC comeback. I hope you understand what I mean. If so, what should I do in that situation? Thanks for all your help.

[ECD]

That was good advice Jersey! As long as your OR count is + or even generally favoring + the ONLY thing that can go wrong with 40 is a shrinking LC.

If your 2,3 and 4 events are all tied, 40 has no advantage. But it also has no particular disadvantage. This makes it a get out while you're ahead game.

Nothing says you MUST bet OTR. When you have a weak or shrinking LC the best thing is to skip the OTR bet altogether and wait for the run to end. Or you can go to 1 unit for your OTR bet. If it loses, next time you go OTR bet 2 and so forth. A prog within a prog. In fact, that is how we played 40 when we won 40 shoes in a row.

OK, let's talk about the MOST important concept in Baccarat. In the whole casino, for that matter. In the whole gambling world. THIS is what separates the Pros from the Amateurs.

EVERYBODY in the casino gets this wrong and that is why they lose.

NEVER CHALLENGE THE DEALER! Know the difference between a good shoe and a bad shoe. For the pro, it isn't about how he plays his good shoes. He knows ANYBODY can beat those.

Its about how quickly he reacts to his BAD shoes. Shit happens and the PRO KNOWS this. THAT is what makes him a Pro. The Pro prides himself by how quickly he responds to a bad shoe. Sure, he'll attempt a system change with minimum bets. But if that doesn't work right off the bat, the Pro is out of there WITH HIS SHIRT INTACT.

When I won every day in AC for 3 years it wasn't because I could beat every table. I couldn't. It was because I knew which tables I couldn't beat and left. I only played tables that were EASY.

"Sorry Dealer, you're just too good for me today." Put THAT sentence in your vocabulary. It is the most important sentence in gambling. Be humble. Never challenge the dealer. That is how players get killed.

Mark T. teaches: when you lose a shoe double your unit. NO, no, no, NO! Sure, it USUALLY works. BUT it only has to fail ONCE and there goes all your winnings. And that has happened to him several times now. Sure he's a GREAT player. But you can't beat all the shoes all the time. NOBODY CAN, including ME. The difference is, I KNOW THAT.

Look, if you must raise your unit, do it when you are winning, NEVER when you are losing. If you learn nothing else, learn THAT. RULE #1 in gambling is: NEVER PLAY A LOSING GAME.

When you guys look at our Hollywood games your attention is immediately drawn to the +45 game. NO, ANYBODY could have got +45 in that easy game. Look at our PROFESSIONAL GAMES. The -1 and the -5 games. Look how quick we surrendered. Good armies KNOW when to RETREAT. The players that stayed in those games lost their shirt. Meanwhile, we were at the bar drinking Scotch. THAT was the BEST place for the pro to be right then.

Oh, and BTW, if you DO do that, whatever you do next. DON'T go back and play. Sure, you FEEL invincible. THAT is PRECISELY the problem!

[muling427]

Please Ellis can you answer my question. Thank you

[muling427]

What are the morning card prep ? and how can you study and analyze them ?

Please Ellis can you answer my question. Thank you

[ECD]

Please Ellis can you answer my question. Thank you

Sure. Every casino has a PARTICULAR morning new cards prep that they have tuned into after careful consideration of which card prep produces the greatest profit. Recognize that casinos have tons of empirical data to work with.

Once they determine which card prep results in the highest profits IN THEIR CASINO they stick with that exact card prep until the profits from it show decline. Often a casino will keep the exact same card prep for months, even years. They consider this so important that they very often have a specific person in charge of the card prep to insure its accuracy.

It won't do you much good to watch the card prep except to insure yourself that it didn' change overnight.

The important thing to YOU is WHAT is that card prep producing and is it consistently producing the same thing. It usually is so it becomes an easy task to figure out what system beats new cards in a particular casino.

This is no small thing. The advantage to you is huge!

At Gold Strike, Tunica I won every morning for three years by sticking to only the first three shoes after new cards were introduced. Their's ALWAYS favored OTB4L very strongly.

I did the exact same thing in BJ for three years in A.C. Every card prep at every casino in AC strongly favored either NBJ first base or NBJ 3rd base and I knew exactly which casinos favored which system.

So, you see, beating them every day for 3 years wasn't all that hard to do. I ALWAYS won my early morning session because I knew which system to play at which casino. My winnings from the morning session became my bankroll for the day. I was always the only player there watching the morning card prep EVERY morning. I wasn't concerned about WHAT the card prep was. I just wanted to know if they changed it in any way. If so, I would play a different casino where I also knew what the card prep produced.

In BJ, morning cards are the very best cards you'll see all day.

But I found that the same thing is true in Baccarat!

Edited October 24, 2010 by ECD

[aegis21]

One thing to note: Some casinos don't use new cards in the morning. They change cards at different shift times or sometimes every other day, or sometimes every shoe! ! Just something to be aware about....Always ASk if these are new cards!

[ECD]

One thing to note: Some casinos don't use new cards in the morning. They change cards at different shift times or sometimes every other day, or sometimes every shoe! ! Just something to be aware about....Always ASk if these are new cards!

John, welcome back!!! and good point. Guys, John has been with me about 25 years. Anything you want to know about me, ask Aegis.

[ECD]

And for those of us who were worried about Black Tiger, I just got this PM from him:

"yes i understand everything now Ellis and guess what? i won 52 units in 3 shoes today, by playing s40,F2 and RD1 i don't even believe mysefl that i learn this just in couple days, but a big happy is that i've found a master like you and will be the only one 4ever, thank U Master"

I think we can relax a little.

Hey BT, I suspect you don't post much because you are concerned about your English. Forget that. Nobody here cares about good grammar.

BTW, our Mandarin sucks!

Edited October 24, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

One thing to note: Some casinos don't use new cards in the morning. They change cards at different shift times or sometimes every other day, or sometimes every shoe! ! Just something to be aware about....Always ASk if these are new cards!

It pays to know the habits, procedures and peculiarities of the casino you are playing. Believe me, they know YOURS!

[punvit]

And for those of us who were worried about Black Tiger, I just got this PM from him:

"yes i understand everything now Ellis and guess what? i won 52 units in 3 shoes today, by playing s40,F2 and RD1 i don't even believe mysefl that i learn this just in couple days, but a big happy is that i've found a master like you and will be the only one 4ever, thank U Master"

I think we can relax a little.

Hey BT, I suspect you don't post much because you are concerned about your English. Forget that. Nobody here cares about good grammar.

BTW, our Mandarin sucks!

Hey Black Tiger, what prog. did you use on those shoes?

[aegis21]

John, welcome back!!! and good point. Guys, John has been with me about 25 years. Anything you want to know about me, ask Aegis.

Sorry I been away so long, Too many jobs, too little time. Definetly need atime management course, if only I could find the time!

[punvit]

Hi Ellis, just to prevent a run-a-way prog. Is it possible to use F2 to win a shoe with streaks, 1's and 2's by using a flat bet? And also, can we do the same thing with 40A with choppy shoe?

Edited October 25, 2010 by punvit

[ECD]

Hi Ellis, just to prevent a run-a-way prog. Is it possible to use F2 to win a shoe with streaks, 1's and 2's by using a flat bet? And also, can we do the same thing with 40A with choppy shoe?

Yes it is possible. To win flat betting you must simply win more bets than you lose. So the task becomes good system selection, just as we teach it here. Note that we would have done quite well on the Hollywood shoes had we merely flat bet. But, the same thing that makes a shoe a good flat bet shoe also makes it a good prog shoe. And the limited 345 also prevents runaway progs.