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johnnycs1

Any one agree, {even now Ellis saying he seldoms switches systems}.......just forget the rest and mainly just use System 40 ?

Or Maverick or Maverick Ultimate, if you want to buy it for $1000 !

Seems to me, looking for that trigger to switch methods, is just guessing anyways, no way to really know exactly whats around the corner ? So why, in the heat of battle, stress yourself out, in trying to figure out what to switch to !! Especially if losing ....now you are really stressed !! I don't care how many years any of us have been playing,,, when ya losing, that pulse rate is accelerating, panic is in play...........thats plain, in bred human nature to begin to sweat it ! Again.....first day ever gambling, or your 30 or 40 or 50th year, that blood pressure is going up !!

Why not, just a simple, easy to master and play, almost mechanical...........play a System 40 ? Worked for Ellis !

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ECD

Well, basically right! When you think it through, one of the system 40 variations can cover ALL shoe posibilities. And not just cover but cover best.

All shoes are either Choppy or Streaky or Neutral.

CHOP:

We all know by now that System 40 is best in the chop half of all shoes (a +OR count.) Because all chop shoes are primarily opposites and Sys 40 primarily bets opposites.

Neutral:

System 40 does well in Neutral because it beats 2's and Neutral shoes are primarily 2's. But there are some instances in Neutral wherein Sys 40 Net Bet will work better. We need to do a better job of defining those instances.

Streak:

Basic System 40 does well in Streak by making 2's culprit because with 2's culprit we are basically playing TB4L, a strong streak system. But 2's are not always L.C in streaky shoes. But in those situations we have the opposite of system 40 which is essentially RD1. RD1 does not like sporadic 1's but F2,3 does. We need to look at F2,3 as the Sporadic 1's variation of RD1, which, in turn, is the reverse variation of System 40.

System 40, Sys 40N, RD1,2 and F2,3 are all tied together by a common base - System 40, if we choose to look at them that way.

One of the above variations beats virtually every shoe type possible.

Therefore what I'm saying is that we can look at the whole game of Baccarat as totally defeatable by a variation of System 40.

Therefore, I'm saying that if we consentrate all our efforts on System 40, and its variations, we can avoid going off on tangents and beat every shoe possible with ONE philosophy - System 40. In other words I'm saying that we should confine our resources and efforts to ONE overall philosophy - System 40 and concentrate on which variation we should select for the shoe at hand.

We also have Sys 40 options on betting solutions: U1D2 M2 will not always be optimum. When first starting a table we can be far more conservative by splitting our progs. One prog on our normal Opposites betting but a second prog on our OTR betting. In other words go back to a 1 bet for our first OTR attempt but if that attempt fails, we go to 2 on our next OTR attempt. This is exactly how System 40 beat 40 shoes in a row.

On the other hand, just as often, we find ourselves in a particularly strong Sys. 40 situation. Here we owe it to ourselves to EXPLOIT that situation with U1D2 M3 B2 and shoot for 30 units.

Yes, we still have a ways to go to get this all ironed out but wouldn't it make life a whole lot easier to look at the game from one common and united approach? And most of the work has already been done. We need to catch up to the guys who first realized this and then take it all the way from there.

Wouldn't that make this whole forum a lot simpler? And wouldn't that give us the highest possible win rate no matter what we face on a given day?

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ECD
Sorry I didn't finish or even nearly finish the second shoe but I had the wife with me and I was up over $400 so I figured why hang around.

Ha, that's a WHOLE lot better than the approach you usually hear in that situation. "I'll be right with you Honey as soon as I lose these chips!"

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johnnycs1

Also....I forgot to ask:

I know of one person here, that has bought Maverick & Maverick Ultimate , but think I might be out of place if I say who, has anyone else joined Mark on his offer and is being successful ?

I think I will , (join Mark's group ) when I recoup my monies from joining this great forum (well worth the money ) .

Nothing but good testimonials over on Marks forum !

Just don't see anyone posting here about Maverick since some differences between the parties were aired here.

Thanks..........johnny

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jerseyslim

Without having hardly any knowledge of Maverick, I'd like to say my thoughts on your statement Johnny. You are going to have times when System 40 kicks Mavericks butt all over the place. You will have shoes, which are mostly streaky, that Maverick is going to kick the heck out of System 40. Maverick can't have a monopoly on winning. It's a methodology that really does well when you have some kind of streaky shoes. Now I realize that with Maverick, you do have the option of going anti for chop. But when you start doing this, you are at risk of jumping onto a mode that existed for a short time, the anti, and now is reverting back to what the shoe has been doing for most of the time. After all, the opposite of System 40 is RD1 or F2 etc. So with System 40, you could make that an option just as anti is an option of Maverick. So it would appear to me, that each of the two are similar, and when you start a shoe, and you are using the O/R count, you could start a shoe actually the same as you would under Maverick. Maverick would say this shoe is starting anti so I'm going to start in a choppy mode. System 40 would be starting off the same way. So both methods are flexible, yet neither has a big advantage over the other. The biggest difference in my opinion is that System 40 is included in the price here. Maverick comes at a cost of $1,000. With Maverick I understand you have mentoring and maybe that's worth $1,000 to some. But in my limited experience here, and not having been around when Mark was here, other than the mentoring, Maverick doesn't have an advantage over someone properly using System 40. And just because you use Maverick, there's no guarantee that you are going to be anymore successful than you would be using System 40. Both methods are flexible and it's a matter of how and when you are going to use another available option in the course of the shoe. When do you switich, why you switch, and does the switch really mean you are going in the right direction or does it mean you got on the new direction just in time to see it switch back in the original direction. Right now you have an individual who knows how to market himself and that's Mark. He will naturally hype the good points and not put as much emphasis on the low points. But that's only natural and that's ok. I think if you can be successful with Maverick, you can be successful with System 40. If you flounder around, winning only when you are not betting for real with Maverick, then you'll flounder around with System40. The biggest difference is that you'll still have your $1,000 in your pocket that you can blow in the casino. I only hope at this time that Ellis can spend more time with us so we can get this thing ironed out once and for all. Now I'll step down from my soap box.

Also....I forgot to ask:

I know of one person here, that has bought Maverick & Maverick Ultimate , but think I might be out of place if I say who, has anyone else joined Mark on his offer and is being successful ?

I think I will , (join Mark's group ) when I recoup my monies from joining this great forum (well worth the money ) .

Nothing but good testimonials over on Marks forum !

Just don't see anyone posting here about Maverick since some differences between the parties were aired here.

Thanks..........johnny

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johnnycs1

Appreciate your response Jersey and totally agree !!

I'm kinda leaning towards , just playing Sys 40, take the wins vs. the losses........and I think I can average my 1 to 200 hundred a day is all I'm concerned about realizing !

I have a casino 2 miles down the road from me here in Albuquerque. Spread is $25 to $3000.

Table opens around noonish..........and my goal is to hit it , stay a few hours and average a 100 to 200 a day! Not to draw any attention and leave ! I really think I can average that figure on a daily basis with "40 ". Thanks to Ellis for sharing, "40 " with all of us ! :)

Thanks for your input !

johnny/albuquerque

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jerseyslim

It's funny, but the casino where I go, there's an older man who comes in everytime I'm there and he's probably there everyday. He buys in with a few hundred dollars, stays there and wins a net of about 3-6 units at a $25 table, then gets up and leaves. So I'm sure his goal is like yours but the funny thing is he stands out because of how short a time he's there but let's face it, the casino doesn't really care.

Appreciate your response Jersey and totally agree !!

I'm kinda leaning towards , just playing Sys 40, take the wins vs. the losses........and I think I can average my 1 to 200 hundred a day is all I'm concerned about realizing !

I have a casino 2 miles down the road from me here in Albuquerque. Spread is $25 to $3000.

Table opens around noonish..........and my goal is to hit it , stay a few hours and average a 100 to 200 a day! Not to draw any attention and leave ! I really think I can average that figure on a daily basis with "40 ". Thanks to Ellis for sharing, "40 " with all of us ! :)

Thanks for your input !

johnny/albuquerque

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johnnycs1

OMG !!!! SOUNDS EXACTLY LIKE ME !!! WIN 3, 4, 5 UNITS AND LEAVE !!

Thats about all the Asians, chain smoking ,I can handle since I quit over 3 years ago !

Also they get antsy , if ya stand in the back ground and kinda check out the tote board !

They are constantly checking you out over their shoulder......kinda makes ya feel weird !!

But I try to ignore it...........THIS IS MY COUNTRY !! :)

johnny

ps...even 3 units a day,, @$25, = $75, times a 30 day month is nice !! :) And like I say.............10 minutes down the road !! Hello !

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waminc

Jersey,

I think I've got the post stuff right. Here's my play of your shoe. I never start betting until I see what the shoe is doing. After the first chop at hand 6, I bet for S40. I flat bet until I get 2-3 units up and also have some feel for the shoe. In this case at hand 11 I start my prog of U1D2 M2. I never feel bound to continue any prog if I am uncomfortable with it. I don't hesitate to go back to 1 and start over. I will not dig myself into a negative hole that will take large bets to get out of. Hand 16, I bet B because my count has shown no twos for B, but I only bet 1 because it's not a strong count yet. You can follow the bets and look over at the count that is broken down into P and B events in the lower part of the box. You will see where I deviated from the prog or the bet selection through your shoe and will usually see why when looking at the count. I'll be glad to answer any questions concerning the play.

Be aware, I do all my "testing " live at one of the local casinos with real money. As you stated, anyone can do good at home, but put up the bucks and see how your approach really works. I DON'T LIKE MAKING BIG BETS WHEN I'M LOSING EACH ONE. THAT MEANS I'M MAKING THESE BETS WHEN I CAN'T SELECT THE CORRECT PLAY.

Bill[ATTACH]1881[/ATTACH]

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res

Ellis

Would you show me an example of this statement you made.

Ellis

Would you show me example of this statement.

[COLOR="red"]We also have Sys 40 options on betting solutions: U1D2 M2 will not always be optimum. When first starting a table we can be far more conservative by splitting our progs. One prog on our normal Opposites betting but a second prog on our OTR betting. In other words go back to a 1 bet for our first OTR attempt but if that attempt fails, we go to 2 on our next OTR attempt. This is exactly how System 40 beat 40 shoes in a row.

Also are we playing system 40 with PJ scorecard??

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ECD
Also....I forgot to ask:

I know of one person here, that has bought Maverick & Maverick Ultimate , but think I might be out of place if I say who, has anyone else joined Mark on his offer and is being successful ?

I think I will , (join Mark's group ) when I recoup my monies from joining this great forum (well worth the money ) .

Nothing but good testimonials over on Marks forum !

Just don't see anyone posting here about Maverick since some differences between the parties were aired here.

Thanks..........johnny

That was quite a reply Jersey put together. I also know of one player who went Maverick and its probably the same one you know of Johnny. In her case it was probably the best thing she could do. She is playing under peculiar time constraints which to my way of thinking puts her under a huge handicap. She must play a specific casino at a specific time and has no time for table or system selection. She has no idea even if the table is streaky or choppy.

This left me at a loss as to what to teach her. Personally, I wouldn't even play under those constraints. But as far as I can see Maverick uses no table selection and plays every shoe totally independently and out of context to what is going on in a casino. The shoe start is always based on how that particular shoe happened to start. Prior shoes, casino biases, card preps, the age of the cards, all our normal preparation is out the window. So Maverick is perhaps her best choice.

However one of our players gave her a couple shoes to try that System 40 had killed and Ultimate Maverick lost to both shoes. No telling if she played them right because Maverick is so complex that no two players will ever play the same shoe the same way. So I wouldn't make much out of that.

To me Maverick is like playing with one hand tied behind your back. It ignores pertinent information. I think that every time you go against the main bias of the shoe you are taking grave unnecessary risks. Of course Maverick sometimes lands right on the main bias but then they are playing the same way we are. To me its sorta like playing golf W/O knowing the wind direction. But then, of course, I am biased. But it certainly SOUNDS good to new players who don't know all our tricks of the trade.

Edited by ECD

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kachatz1

I really think Ellis has a point here.

1) No single way of play will beat every situation.

2) We do not need to beat every single situation, especially with rationale stop-loss parameters. if this happens, then just get out and wait for the next shoe.

3) Establish realistic win-objectives for each shoe/each session and stick to them.

3) The simpler the rules, the better we can all apply them and discuss our results on this forum.

4) Everyone who has been playing this game for a long time ( means thet have not become discouraged or run out of money) would most likely agree that in real-world casino play, with all the distractions and "stress" influencers present, THE SIMPLER THE BETTER.

System 40 seems to accomodate all these objectives, the most important of which is that short-term/mid-term/long-term we BEAT THE CASINO and enjoy our winnings .

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ECD
Ellis

Would you show me an example of this statement you made.

Ellis

Would you show me example of this statement.

[COLOR="red"]We also have Sys 40 options on betting solutions: U1D2 M2 will not always be optimum. When first starting a table we can be far more conservative by splitting our progs. One prog on our normal Opposites betting but a second prog on our OTR betting. In other words go back to a 1 bet for our first OTR attempt but if that attempt fails, we go to 2 on our next OTR attempt. This is exactly how System 40 beat 40 shoes in a row.

Also are we playing system 40 with PJ scorecard??

Well, I wish I could but my scanner port is down. But I think I can explain what I mean by split progs. It is really very simple even W/O a sample:

When we play U1D2 M2, or even W/O the M2 we continue on with our next prog bet regardless if the next bet is another Opposite or an OTR bet.

Actually, Basic System 40 did not bet a continuous prog like that. This is much easier to grasp if you color code your two progs. Make all your Opposite bets blue. Make your OTR bets red. Now you have two separate and independent progs that BOTH start at 1 unit.

Normally if 3s were culprit, after losing our 1,2 on opposites, we would bet a 3 on repeats (OTR). Playing split progs our first OTR bet would be red and it would go back to 1 instead of 3. Now if we lose the red OTR 1 bet, the next time we go OTR our bet would be 2 units. We are continuing the red prog where it left off and the blue prog where it left off and playing the two progs indepenently of each other.

When 3s are culprit the red prog is betting that sooner or later there will be a 4 in a row. This is a good bet because 499 shoes out of 500 eventually have a 4 in a row.

The split progs are far more conservative because it reduces your highest bet considerably. I recall a shoe, one of the 40 straight winners, that had 7 3s before it had a 4 so my red prog got all the way up to an 8 bet. But I still won the shoe. You win less units per shoe that way but you also win a greater percentage of your shoes.

With split progs you are usually betting considerably less units per shoe so it makes it much easier to increase your unit size when you find yourself at a good System 40 table.

BTW, don't forget that some days the table is SOOO choppy that you are better off to never bet OTR. Just stop betting altogether when the LC run appears and wait for the run to end. We've seen a lot of shoes at Bet Phoenix like that lately. Do you get it now Res?

Edited by ECD

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ECD

Oh, about PJ's card. Yes, I think we are better off to look at the P LC separately from the B LC. But we will work our way up to that. Similarly we need to also be looking at the opposite LC. Recognize that SAP only distinguishes the REPEAT LC. It would help RD1 greatly to let the shoe history determine when is the best time to go on a ZZ run - after the 1st 1 in a row or after the second or maybe not at all.

I think System 40 is already the strongest system in Baccarat but there are still a lot of improvements available to us.

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jerseyslim

Bill..........Nice job. Very sound reasoning for how you are playing. I was curious why at hands 26 and 27 you didn't have opposite bets?

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res

Ellis

I am still confused. I am a visual learner and if you or someone else could show example of 10 or 20 plays I would be able to understand it better.

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jerseyslim

Ellis.....If I'm understanding you correctly, you would be recording the inverse of the streak SAP. So as an example if it was PPBPBPBPP you would record this under a 7 because when "counted correctly" this would be a 7 streak. But I've probably got this one all wrong. Oh please, please, tell me what you mean. LOL

Oh, about PJ's card. Yes, I think we are better off to look at the P LC separately from the B LC. But we will work our way up to that. Similarly we need to also be looking at the opposite LC. Recognize that SAP only distinguishes the REPEAT LC. It would help RD1 greatly to let the shoe history determine when is the best time to go on a ZZ run - after the 1st 1 in a row or after the second or maybe not at all.

I think System 40 is already the strongest system in Baccarat but there are still a lot of improvements available to us.

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Norm A
Actually this is something I've been working on for the last few months. The general concept you're describing I refer to as "1's Clusters". In other words when you do see 1's, are they rolling out as singles, doubles, triples, etc. I find this to be much more useful than whether 1's in total are above or below average.

Ellis, I think mathematically you are correct. If you want to do an SAP chart for 1's clusters I think the following values would work:

Hi slider

Could you please post a score card showing am example of what you are talking about with tracking clusters ??

Also what casinos do you play at ?

Thanks

NormA

single: 1 point

double: 2 points

triple: 4 points

quadruple: 8 points

etc, etc,....

Also you can certainly keep track of SAP 1's clusters and regular SAP events on the same score sheet. You can keep track of P/B results and over all score in the middle. You can track traditional SAP events to the right of P/B results (just as always). Track SAP 1's clusters to the left of P/B results.

With 1's clusters any time you have 2 in a row straight after a confirmed 1, you know your cluster has ended and you can record it in your chart.

Hi slider

Could you please post a score card showing am example of what you are talking about with tracking clusters ??

Also what casinos do you play at ?

Thanks

NormA


Norm A

FOLLOW THE SHOE

WHEN IN DOUBT WAIT IT OUT

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waminc

Jersey,

I just blew those bets. 26 could have been bet opposite since 3s were MC for B, but B also had a 5+ already. I just felt that the shoe had been running with a good S40 presentation of 1s, 2s, and 3s, the 4 had not come in at 17, so wait and see what was going on. Also at 36 I didn't bet because 31 and 32 did not go to 3iar...so, let's wait. The Bank side was the side that did some jumping around while Player ran as a very good S40 shoe until hand 59 on. However I would have been out at 57 after hitting 22 twice on 3rd street.

Bill

Edited by waminc

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ECD
Ellis.....If I'm understanding you correctly, you would be recording the inverse of the streak SAP. So as an example if it was PPBPBPBPP you would record this under a 7 because when "counted correctly" this would be a 7 streak. But I've probably got this one all wrong. Oh please, please, tell me what you mean. LOL

Well I think it can be even simpler than that. Norm and Slider 8 are discussing this same 1's count subject over on the 4S Questions thread and I know some of the other guys are already doing a 1's count. We need their opinions here.

MVS, can you copy the petinent posts from the 4S Q thread and also put them here so we can have this whole discussion in one place.

I'm realizing that Advanced 40 and 4S are really the same thing if we either leave OTB4L out of 4S or put it in Advanced 40 or make it optional. While there are some shoes where OTB4L out performs 40 I'm wondering if we are over complicating things by including OTB4L. All of the systems we are discussing have a System 40 base except OTB4L. I'm thinking lets leave out OTB4L until and unless we prove to ourselves that we need it.

A 1's count is not important for straight System 40 because 40 beats all 1's whether single or multiple. But it is for its reverse, RD1. Done the right way, a 1's count tells us which to play between RD1 and F2.

Getting this 1's count right, therefore, is very important and is going to take some thought and team work.

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ECD

Here is an excerpt from "Let's Kill This Shoe" the private baccarat forum. This is a closed to the public private forum.

It may sound a little far out, but some of you may find it useful and it may lead to a better way to play System 40. That's our hopes in sharing this.

Ellis I hope you don't mind or object. If this needs to be removed just let me know. Also everyone, please don't ask questions until you have tried this and played some practice shoes. Study the example and then if you have questions ask and we will try to answer a few.

Well, I have been watching the System 40 developments on BTC and I like the idea of using System 40 as a base, but what if we make a few changes to the standard rules?

Let's split the Bank and Player sides and play each as a separate game as far as SAP events are concerned. We'll only look at 2's 3's and 4's and weigh them at 2, 4, and 8 respectively as Ellis recommends. We do not consider 4+'s just leave them off the Event count.

Ellis states, in the standard rules, that you would consider 4’s as LC when the shoe starts. Since we will be tracking the events seperately, I think it would be better to build the events as we go. Since the SAP count at shoe start is 0-0-0 (we're not considering 1's, just 2’s 3’s & 4’s). I like to start with 2’s LC and then let the SAP events take control. Ex. if the bank side events are 2-0-0, why condider 4s LC? I see 3’s as LC don’t you? And in this case, you can’t have a 4 iar until you first get a 3 iar.

I like to got OTR if the shoe starts with a 2 iar, but you could also just wait for the first opposite to begin.

Now about OTR options....

So, when we are betting opposites and lose, now we are looking at a 2 iar. Check the SAP chart for that side (the side the 2 iar is on). If 2’s are LC on that side we go OTR, if not we keep betting for an opposite.

So, we go OTR after the LC, now how long do we stay OTR? That’s the big question…

Well here is my thinking. If we go OTR after we have 2's LC, why don’t we stay OTR until the run ends because we are catching the run near the beginning..

When we go OTR after a 3's, or 4's LC, why don't we stay OTR until the run reaches the length of the MC event then go back off the run.

Unless we go OTR when 3's are LC But 2's are MC, and we've already moved past the MC event, in which case we just bet OTR until we lose.

We would do this separately for each side of course.

Also, since System 40 is Ellis’s and is a BTC system, I think it would be ok to share our findings with BTC. Any objections? If anyone objects let me know now and we will keep it in this forum.

Here is a sample shoe.

RR83830a.jpg

Edited by ECD

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jerseyslim

Nice post PJ. One question, if 4's are MC and 3's are LC, we have one otr bet. After that you say to go off the run. Would you wait until the run is over or just stop betting until it changed sides. I've seen some runs go 10 or better lately, including on BPC today with a 10 run Banker which I just happened to look in and then went back out again right away.

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ECD
Nice post PJ. One question, if 4's are MC and 3's are LC, we have one otr bet. After that you say to go off the run. Would you wait until the run is over or just stop betting until it changed sides. I've seen some runs go 10 or better lately, including on BPC today with a 10 run Banker which I just happened to look in and then went back out again right away.

Under these conditions, my first instinct would be to stay off the run. I hate to miss a good straight run (system 40 wins all ZZ runs) as much as the next guy, but trying to predict how long a run will go is beyond me. I would just go off the run and continue betting opposites. Whatever the system, there will be times when we miss an exploit and we'll for sure, be pissed, but the main concern is how many of our regular bets are we winning.

If we lose 2 or 3 bets after we go off the run (unlikley because the run was already a 4 in a row when we went off the run) , we could always suspend table bets until we get the next opposite and then continue with betting opposites.

PJ

Edited by ECD

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ECD

Right, our rule of thumb is:

When 2s are LC stay on all runs until you lose because you got on the run so early.

When 3s are culprit stay OTR for a max of 2 winning bets and when 4s are culprit stay on the run for 1 winning bet.

BUT:

A rule of thumb is just that - a rule of thumb. It is what you do when you have nothing better to go on - for instance, your first shoe of the day. But as the day progresses, so does your experience with that table if all went well and the longer you play a given table the more you get used to its peculiarities.

For instance, at a very choppy table you may be seeing very few straight runs of 4 or more. Here, you are best off to NEVER go OTR. Once a run has gone 4 simply wait for it to end and then continue on with your opposites. You can't go wrong by betting only opposites at a table that is producing mostly opposites. So you miss a 7 in a row - Big Whip.

The opposite of that situation is a table where you are seeing lots of runs but 2s are not LC. Here we go by what we are seeing and do the exact opposite by staying on all runs until they end OR going on, off, on, off, the run until it ends.

Or we get the situation where we are seeing lots of 4s but no 5s. and 3s are LC. So what we are seeing is that we are best off to stay on the run for only one bet instead of 2. I've found this to be a very common situation.

Yes, our rule of thumb is quite good - right up until you have better information to go on.

We must have rules BUT when we write that rule we don't know if its your first shoe at that table or your tenth. When you are consistently seeing something at a table, that evidence far outweighs any rule we could write.

Edited by ECD

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Probac

Hi PJ, thanks for sharing this new way of playing sys 40.

Some observation if you don’t mind.

Hands #49-53 was a run of 5. You went otr on the 4th play of the run (hand #52) since 3s were LC for P. You then went off the run the very next play which is the 5th play of the run (hand #53) which lost, since 4s were MC for P.

What if the run had gone on to say a 9 instead of a 5, wouldn’t you have lost from play 5 of the run to play 9, since you went off the run at play 5?

Since you track 4s but not 4+s how would you know that 4+s would not be more than 4s?

Why not simply stay otr until the run ends?

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