System 40 Advanced

[johnnycs1]

About when will the new 40A Manual be out Ellis, I know ya busy like us all, so ballpark time ,more or less , be fine.

Thank You,

johnny

[ECD]

Back to Evo's questions;

The new F2 rules (below) eliminate the need for R2,3 as well as F3. So the only systems we need with 40A are 40, F2, and occasionally RD1. To keep 40A as simple as possible I'm not going to include 40N under the 40A umbrella but it is a good system to learn in your spare time. Right now, concentrate on 40, F2 and RD1 in that order.

I probably mentioned the OT count for the first time for you. Every play in a shoe is either an OTB4L play or a TB4L play. The OT count counts OTB4L plays as +1 and TB4L plays as -1. There is more on that in the OTB4L manual. The reason its important here is because F2 loves high minus OT counts and the sample shoe had an extremely high minus OT count which explains the very high score.

It isn't so much a question of how high counts go but whether they favor + or -. Eventually, through experience, you'll get to the point where you no longer need the counts. You will know which system the shoe favors W/O them. Likewise you will know LC and MC automatically by simply glancing at your score card. But this takes time. Meanwhile use the counts as good training wheels. I often still put the running OR count at the bottom of every col. but I did not find this necessary in the Hollywood shoes. But note that even with my experience (tens of thousands of shoes) I still managed to make two costly mistakes in the Hollywood shoes. Once you know what you are doing, the trick is to STAY alert at ALL times. Let's face it, Baccarat gets boring. You must force yourself to stay alert. Mistakes are a sign that you need to take a break. It is not about how long you play. Its about how well you play when you choose to play. Its also about how well you choose your table to play but at Hollywood we had no choice. But we DID have a choice of when to quit. I would rate us with an A on that score. As soon as we weren't sure about what to play either because the shoe became ambiguous or because WE became ambiguous, we quit.

Edited October 16, 2010 by ECD

[punvit]

I agreed on everything!!

As I always play at the tables with LCD monitors. So, I don' t need to do a "SAP" chart to get the LC. But, I still keep track of the OR counts as well.

Edited October 16, 2010 by punvit

[ECD]

About when will the new 40A Manual be out Ellis, I know ya busy like us all, so ballpark time ,more or less , be fine.

Thank You,

johnny

Not long Johnny because the quicker I can get 40A out the fewer questions there will be. But I think my decision to concentrate ONLY on 40A is proving to be a good one. I have yet to see a shoe that 40A can't handle well. I'm sure there will be a few where we'd be better off with some other system but I think the advantage of keeping it simple points right at 40A. Better to be master of one good concept than be half assed at many approaches. Agree?

[ECD]

I agreed on everything!!

As I always play at the tables with LCD monitors. So, I don' t need to do a "SAP" chart to get the LC. But, I still keep track of the OR counts as well.

Right punvit! As screwed up as we are, we are still a country mile ahead of any other site as I'm sure you've figured out by now. Some other sites might be better organized but what good is that if their well organized methods don't work?

[punvit]

Keep up your speed Ellis, don' t let them go pass you!!! We all still believe that you can do it!!!

Edited October 16, 2010 by punvit

[ECD]

Thank you Ellis, this should be the answer to my questioned in "New Members Forum". So, now F2 is make sence to beat TTs.

Right Punvit! I've often said that if you can't beat the TTs you can't win because they are so common in both streaky and choppy shoes. The new F2 rules beats the TTs more effectively but they are still worth noting. If you are seeing long TT runs the best thing to do it bet the darn things until they end. The sample shoe had both TTs and 212s but neither gave us much problem. We would have done a little better by taking our prog all the way to a 7 bet but I don't think the increased risk is worth it. Which would you rather lose, a 345 345 or a 345678. Yeah, I know your answer. NEITHER! Well, in a rough shoe you can always pause after losing a 345 until you get a paper win. But in this shoe, I could continue on W/O pause on THEIR money.

[punvit]

Thank you for your advised.

Edited October 16, 2010 by punvit

[johnnycs1]

Yep I agree Ellis !! Keep it simple! Kinda like a "40a Kiss " !

Thanks for answering my time frame question!

I'm anxiously awaiting its coming out day !

I for one am putting everything else on the back burner, and will strickly concentrate on this new " Kiss" 40A Manual !! I think its gonna be all one needs to take a little out of the casino on a regular basis . My game plan is to hit 'um....and run!! I got a casino just down the road , couple of miles ! Only concern is, one table, $25 mini . Ellis any advice for these conditions ?

Thank You once again........sure appreciate your knowledge, input and advice !!

johnny

[MVSeahog]

OK, MVS would you please post that shoe played to the above rules with a continuous 345 prog starting at 3 on play 2. You will hit +70 at play 57 where you could put a single hash mark to denote an obvious quit point. Put a double hash at play 67 to denote a MUST quit point. (+71) but play to the end. Your final score is 64 if I made no mistakes.

You will see that col 1 is Bank all the way except play 20

Col 2 is Player except play 39.

Col 3 is Bank except pays 41, 42, 58 and 59.

Col 4 is Player except play 68.

Thanks!

Guys, You'll see what happens when the new F2 rules hit their losing pattern at the end of the shoe. This should demonstrate why we almost never play a shoe to the last play.

BTW guys note that there is nothing particularly strange about this shoe. The final OR count is -2. The longest straight and ZZ runs are both 7. The shoe has no 3s which means that Sys 40 would also do very well.

Here you go, boss. I was out playing golf with the mayor this afternoon and was away from the computer all day.

Hopefully I ran this correctly. I may have taken a liberty with your 3,4,5 set once the units had climbed so high. I wasn't planning on the 6 unit bet, but at that point, it couldn't have hurt anything so I went for it. Had I lost that bet at hand 43, I would have been done.

F2 all the way. Sure hope I didn't mess it up anywhere (at least so anybody could see it).

MVS

[jerseyslim]

I play at Mt. Airy and what I see some people do who want to bet less than a $25 unit. Let's say they want to bet $10 on Banker. What they do is bet $35 on banker and $25 on player. The net result is a $10 bet. It depends if you're casino will let you do that.

Yep I agree Ellis !! Keep it simple! Kinda like a "40a Kiss " !

Thanks for answering my time frame question!

I'm anxiously awaiting its coming out day !

I for one am putting everything else on the back burner, and will strickly concentrate on this new " Kiss" 40A Manual !! I think its gonna be all one needs to take a little out of the casino on a regular basis . My game plan is to hit 'um....and run!! I got a casino just down the road , couple of miles ! Only concern is, one table, $25 mini . Ellis any advice for these conditions ?

Thank You once again........sure appreciate your knowledge, input and advice !!

johnny

[ECD]

Right, Johnny, or you could consider a 345 with dimes. Just make sure you are well practiced first. Also, you might want to select early morning play if possible. Cards are more consistent.

Edited October 17, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

Here you go, boss. I was out playing golf with the mayor this afternoon and was away from the computer all day.

Hopefully I ran this correctly. I may have taken a liberty with your 3,4,5 set once the units had climbed so high. I wasn't planning on the 6 unit bet, but at that point, it couldn't have hurt anything so I went for it. Had I lost that bet at hand 43, I would have been done.

F2 all the way. Sure hope I didn't mess it up anywhere (at least so anybody could see it).

MVS

[ATTACH]1933[/ATTACH]

Ha, show off, leave that up because it is very interesting but please play it one more time W/O the mandatory 4, Just a straight 345 negative prog. You won't need the 6. I want to show these guys the MOST conservative way possible to take advantage of the 345. You should hit all my above numbers right on. Thanks. BTW, beautiful job!

[MVSeahog]

Ha, show off, leave that up because it is very interesting but please play it one more time W/O the mandatory 4, Just a straight 345 negative prog. You won't need the 6. I want to show these guys the MOST conservative way possible to take advantage of the 345. You should hit all my above numbers right on. Thanks. BTW, beautiful job!

You're in luck as I'm just sitting here killing time until my torrent server comes back online and it's taking forever. And, once again, as good as this was running there was no need to back out of the shoe early in the third column with the drop from +69 to +53 although losing hand 43 would have seen me pulling the plug on the spot! However, going from +78 to +66 in three hands that late in the shoe just shouts at me to "Exit, stage right!"

Here you go. F2 at 345 U1D2M3.

MVS

[johnnycs1]

THANK YOU JERSEY SLIM AND ELLIS !!!

johnny

[ECD]

OK, perfect job MVS! as usual!

Now, I'd like everyone to make a copy of this shoe either electronically or even by hand and hang it prominently in your workplace because we can get a LOT of mileage out of this single shoe. This one shoe can teach you as much about Baccarat as the rest of the forum combined. Many of our most important principles are displayed by this single shoe. We are very lucky that John B. posted this recent actual casino shoe.

First, lets check it against normal frequencies.

This shoe has 71 plays vs a norm of 72 - very normal

This shoe has 24 1's vs a norm of 18 - not that unusual

This shoe has 4 2s vs a norm of 9 - that stretches norm quite a bit

This shoe has 0 3s vs a norn of 4.5 - highly unusual

This shoe has 7 4+s vs a norm of 4.5 - highly unusual

(4+s means 4 or mores)

This shoe has a -2 OR count. That is highly normal overall but it it highly unusual that the OR count got to -15 during the shoe.

This shoe has a -25 OT count. This is extremely unusual by today's standards but would have been totally normal back in the early 90's when all Baccarat was 14 player tables and hand shuffled.

Today we have the ongoing argument. Is Baccarat random? Well, I can tell you this much for sure. ANYONE who played Baccarat in the '90's KNOWS for an absolute fact that Baccarat is NOT random. Playing full time, such a shoe, -25 OT count, might be the most normal shoe we saw all day long. Straight, ZZ and TT runs in the low 20's were a very common occurrence and we often saw multiple such runs IN THE SAME SHOE. Shoes like this were highly common and would not even raise an eyebrow.

Look, casinos lose money on long runs. Long runs are the ONLY way casinos can lose money in Baccarat. Casinos aren't stupid! They learned how to avoid long runs. As a result, with no rule changes whatsoever, and just by learning how to avoid long runs with the shuffle, casinos have increased their Baccarat profits from 3% of the drop in the '90's to a whopping 26% of the drop today! You don't get a 900% increase in profits by accident or coincidence. You can only get such a windfall from knowing exactly what you are doing. Casinos KNOW.

In the late 90's, I was disguised as a Pulitzer prize winning reporter from the Philadelphia Inquirer and interviewed the Casino Manager at Paradise Island (formerly named Hog Island) and he revealed to me, over martinis) the most important Baccarat information of all time - "It's all in the shuffle!" . We know that! Other sites don't. We play biases! They don't. We win! They lose. And all of you who have tried the other sites, which is MOST of you, KNOW that.

Now, lets get to the important stuff!

Edited October 17, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

OK, I tell you time and again that your FIRST duty upon entering a casino is to find the most biased table in the casino.

This most important advice always falls on deaf ears. WHY? Well its perfectly understandable. Most players, esp. learning students, do most of their playing at home - not in a casino. Well, you have no table selection opportuity at home, or on line for all practical purposes. Therefore when you finally get to a real casino, my advice on table selection is long forgotten and you sit at the first empty seat you see. Big mistake! And, by the way, that is the biggest flaw in Maverick. It ignores table selection. There are other major flaws in Maverick but that's not my purpose here.

MUST you have table selection? No, obviously not! We clearly demonstrated that at Hollywood. But it is a huge advantage when available. We won this shoe with a record breaking score and very easily. Why? Because its record breaking biased for this day and age. Reguardless of the type of bias (we don't really care) the more a shoe is biased, the more we beat it. WHY play a tough table when an easy table is available? So, rather than argue about it like the junk forums do, simply take my advice and ALWAYS play the easiest (most biased) table in the casino. It just makes life so much easier.

Once you are a seasoned student I want you to be able to spot such a tote board from an isle away W/O even breaking stride. Yes, you can get that good and mark my words - you WILL!

When Keith first saw this shoe posted in our short cut way he immediately lost interest. I asked why7? He said, because at first glance I knew we would KILL that shoe. There's a lesson there!

But, when John B spotted this shoe he thought it would be tough just as most of you would think. Why? Because it looks so strange with its - 25 OT count. The lesson here? The most biased shoes are the easiest to beat regardless of the type of bias.

See, there are many types of bias - 12, to be exact. But I'm trying to concentrate you on only 4 in order to keep the 40A concept as simple as possible. Those 4 are:

High + OR count (CHOP)

High - OR count (streak)

High - OT count (full of both straight and ZZ runs)

High + OT count (Runless shoes with lots of TT runs) (OTB4L shoes)

So must we know OTB4L? Well its a good idea but no because systen 40 beats OTB4L shoes quite soundly. Everything else is good to know in one way but I think it it more important to keep the 40A concept as SIMPLE as possible. I want to FIRST get you winning! AFTER THAT is a good time to venture out into our other concepts but FIRST, let's get you winning! THAT is why we are HERE.

[ECD]

OK, this shoe also clearly demonstrates the importance of the OT count. We beat this shoe so soundly for ONE reason and ONE reason only: its high - OT count.

If you don't yet know how to perform an OT count, LEARN. Its very simple: +1 for every Opposite Time before last play and -1 for every TB4L play. Every circle on your card or on a tote board is either a TB4L circle or an OTB4L circle. But I want you to eventually be able to spot a high OT count on a tote board or scorecard W/O having to actually perform the count. The mysterious tote board is nothing more than your score card up side down - end of mystery. The Asian horizontal tote board is just as easy to master. It takes you about ten minutes of observation to understand exactly how these horizontal boards work. It's all part of developing your casino savvy. The better your casino savvy, the easier it is to win.

I'm trying to get you to play 40A purely mechanically. Why? Because I've learned that the more decisions I leave up to a student, the more hands he will lose. That's another strike against Maverick. No two players have ever played the same shoe the same way. Hell, even the same player will play the same shoe a different way the next day. At least that is what most of the Maverick players tell me.

I want ALL of our students playing the same shoe the same way. That is my goal. What if all brain surgeons operated on your head a different way? Would THAT fill you with confidence? If everyone plays a different way are you really playing a system? Not in my book.

See how MVS played the same shoe the exact same way I did as soon as I gave him the hard rules? The first attempt he was merely playing a concept, not a system. Remind him of one rule and Bingo, he's there, every play and every bet exactly the same. Now THAT is a system!

[ECD]

OK, let's talk CASH Mgt.: We haven't talked about that much lately but this particular shoe clearly demonstrates our MOST important Cash Mgt. rule which is: In the 4th column NEVER make a bet that could take you below the decade you are in. What the hell does that mean? OK. 0 to 10, 10 to 20, 20 to 30 are all decades. Look at play 61. Our score at play 61 is 71 with a 3 bet due. But if we make that 3 bet it could take us down out of the 70 to 80 decade. Therefore we quit right there. No, we don't reduce our bet to 1. We Quit. So by our Cash Mgt rules, this is a +71 shoe. Had we stayed to the end, this shoe would have been only a +64 shoe - although I find it a little difficult saying "only +64" !

OK, we have another Cash Mgt rule that says once you hit +16, do not make a bet that could take you below +10. Usually, that would leave you with +12 or +11. OK, WHY? Because that means that once you see +16 or more, unlike any other player at the table YOU are a guaranteed winner already. and +10 or 11 or 12 is far more than ANY player averages. See the wisdom of it?

Now, on ANY other forum they have completely subverted the term Cash Mgt to MM or Money Mgt. Far worse, they have totally confused that term with "Betting Strategy". They think Betting Strategy and Cash Mgt. are the same thing. You ask them: What is your cash Mgt. They answer "a 12345 progression" or whatever. This is down right ignorant. They end up playing with no real Cash Mgt whatsoever. Betting Strategy is about how you bet. Cash Mgt is exactly what it sounds like - preserving your hard fought winnings while minimizing your losses. These idiots are not even up to where we were 30 years ago. It's no wonder they think winning is impossible. The way they play, IT IS.

OK, that is just a little taste of Cash Mgt. We will include much more on that all important subject in the manual.

Edited October 17, 2010 by ECD

[Sinatra1]

Ellis, Great stuff. It's always great in this forum when you are posting a lot as you have been the last couple of days. I have been playing at Trump Plaza in AC the last two weeks with some success but had one bad day. I would start out in System 40 and move to RDH-1 when 40 faltered. When I came home and replayed my score card (several ways) I found that good old OTB4L killed all 6 shoes. The lowest score of the six was +15 with the highest +42. It is such a great system and easy to play. and all you need is to get on the ZZ runs after a predetermined number and the same with straight runs. Your always winning 1 or two bets at the start of a run by the time it gets to 4. I think OTB4L really should be a key component in 4S system.

[ECD]

OK, what do we mean by the term "strong sided"? Look at columns 1 and 2, THEY are Strong Sided. Col 1 is 6 Ps vs 14 Bs. Col 2 is 4 Bs vs 16 Ps. By contrast, cols 3 and 4 are NOT strong sided. What is the importance of it? F2 LOVES strong sided shoes as you can plainly see on this shoe.

[ECD]

Ellis, Great stuff. It's always great in this forum when you are posting a lot as you have been the last couple of days. I have been playing at Trump Plaza in AC the last two weeks with some success but had one bad day. I would start out in System 40 and move to RDH-1 when 40 faltered. When I came home and replayed my score card (several ways) I found that good old OTB4L killed all 6 shoes. The lowest score of the six was +15 with the highest +42. It is such a great system and easy to play. and all you need is to get on the ZZ runs after a predetermined number and the same with straight runs. Your always winning 1 or two bets at the start of a run by the time it gets to 4. I think OTB4L really should be a key component in 4S system.

You may be entirely right Sinatra1 (I love that name). OTB4L certainly has its days and it's moments esp with new cards and it employs the same exact LC strategy as Sys 40 so it should be easy for the new guys. Are there any other opinions?

[ECD]

And one last important point before I have to go brush my teeth. Sporadic 1's.

You know, I talk all the time about what various systems like or dislike. But a picture is worth 1000 words.

F2 is one of the very few systems that beats sporadic 1's. What are those? Well columns 1 and 2 give you a very vivid picture of exactly what sporadic 1's are as well as exactly why F2 KILLS them. Burn that picture in your mind.

But also burn in cols 3 and 4 because they are a perfect picture of F2 killing ZZ runs. Very few systems do BOTH.

[ECD]

And one question? That new rule I changed on F2. I'm thinking this. Perhaps I should not make that a hard rule. Perhaps I should make it optional??? Something like if the new F2 rule is not working out in YOUR shoe, switch back to the old rule. Some shoes like one and some shoes like the other. This particular shoe just didn't care but some shoes will??? Maybe there is a limit to just how simple we should try to keep things???

[Audionut]

And one question? That new rule I changed on F2. I'm thinking this. Perhaps I should not make that a hard rule. Perhaps I should make it optional??? Something like if the new F2 rule is not working out in YOUR shoe, switch back to the old rule. Some shoes like one and some shoes like the other. This particular shoe just didn't care but some shoes will??? Maybe there is a limit to just how simple we should try to keep things???

I think simple is ALWAYS better, even if you have the occasional loss. Remember, no system beats ALL shoes... we want to win enough to win consistently!!! I REALLY like this new F2... and I like the pure mechanical nature of it... If you make another optional rule, we're back to maverick style..i.e, everyone plays differently....