System 40 Advanced

[ECD]

I think simple is ALWAYS better, even if you have the occasional loss. Remember, no system beats ALL shoes... we want to win enough to win consistently!!! I REALLY like this new F2... and I like the pure mechanical nature of it... If you make another optional rule, we're back to maverick style..i.e, everyone plays differently....

Hmmm, an excellent point!

[jerseyslim]

Went to Mt. Airy on Friday. I was going to stay over Thursday night also but came down with something and had to give up my free night. I played two shoes. The first one, which I'm attaching I played for 44 hands. The reason I quit at that point is due to the fact it came back to +10 units for the third time so I figured someone was telling me something. Unfortunately it went higher to a maximum of +23 units. But I'm always very happy if I can come out 20 units ahead after playing a couple of shoes. The second shoe went really smooth and I was out very early on that one. My wife was with me so I figured I had done what I wanted to do and I'd give some attention to her. Anyhow, I started the shoe off in the system 40 opposite mode. Unfortunately I could have made more units because by hand 17 the 2s' were MC and like a darn fool I figured opposites would handle them too but had I gone to otb4l I would have missed the first losing bet on the opposites and landed right on the first be in the first place. However, since I'm using the dual saps they made sure even if I was doing things wrong, they'd straighten me out. The SAP's are definitely looking out for me and help over ride some dumb mistakes I could be making. When you see red figures on the player side, that is the combined count both sides of the saps. You can see how at hand 13, even though I'm playing chop, the 2's were LC on banker side so the sap's told me not to be opposites at that point but rather otr, so that's what I did. This in my opinion gives you the best of both worlds. The dark circles around the sap's are indicating which ones are working and they have red circles when they're not. The saps' over ride my mode bet which in this shoe was opposites. It's amazing sometimes just how much these dual saps' help guide you through some tough times by directing you away from your mode bet and making the sap bet. This was a decent shoe which could have been much better had I paid better attention but the combing of the mode and saps' helps a lot in my opinion. I had a high of 23, low of -1, and ending of +17. As I said I only got +10 of it but I'm very happy with the results. Didn't get involved with any large drawdowns. Hope this gives you all some thought...Jersey

[jerseyslim]

The SAP's will put you on the streaks and if you watch your 1's you'll know whether to get in a the zz's after a 3 or 4 zig. If 1's are high or MC, you should jump on after the 3 zig, especially if the side the 3 came on is high or MC with 1's. Otherwise wait one more hand and jump aboard. I used to play a lot at Trump Plaza about 10 years ago and occasionally go next door to Ceasars. I liked Trumps since it seemed to attract the most Asians and have the most tables operating. Do you go during the week or weekends and is it still busy in there......Jersey

Ellis, Great stuff. It's always great in this forum when you are posting a lot as you have been the last couple of days. I have been playing at Trump Plaza in AC the last two weeks with some success but had one bad day. I would start out in System 40 and move to RDH-1 when 40 faltered. When I came home and replayed my score card (several ways) I found that good old OTB4L killed all 6 shoes. The lowest score of the six was +15 with the highest +42. It is such a great system and easy to play. and all you need is to get on the ZZ runs after a predetermined number and the same with straight runs. Your always winning 1 or two bets at the start of a run by the time it gets to 4. I think OTB4L really should be a key component in 4S system.

[punvit]

Between OR counts and OT counts, which one gives us more accuracy to determine, which system should we use? Or they both even?

Thank you.

Edited October 18, 2010 by punvit

[ECD]

Between OR counts and OT counts, which one gives us more accuracy to determine, which system should we use? Or they both even?

Thank you.

Well, I wrote a whole lesson on this subject yesterday but BTC must have been down for maintenance when I hit the send button. It's somewhere in space. Let's try again.

Both counts are dead accurate but they are used to expose two different kinds of exploitable biases:

The OR count, Opposites vs Repeats, is our primary count because it answers our FIRST question. Is this table Choppy (Sys40), Neutral (OTB4L) or Streaky (F2 or RD1)?

Which count is most important? The one with the highest numbers is the most important regardless whether those counts are plus or minus. The highest numbers identify the strongest bias. The stronger a bias the more we can win and the easier it is to do so.

I think , by now, we all understand the OR count and its purpose. I suspect some of you can now determine if a shoe is streaky or choppy even W/O performing the OR count. Even so, it is still a good idea to jot down the OR count below each col. I still usually do that.

So lets discuss the merits of the OT count and how to use it to your advantage.

The OT count is OTB4L (opposite time before last) circles vs TB4L (time before last circles) circles. Every circle in a shoe is one or the other.

John B's shoe, below, played by me and posted by MVS, did have a far ranging OR count. But it had a far greater OT count going all the way to - 25 or whatever. Therefore, in that particular shoe the OT count had the highest credibility. That identified the system that would win the most primary prog bets. When you are starting your prog with 3, you want the system that wins the most 3 bets.

OK, in the OT count, we count TB4L circles as -1 and OTB4L circles as +1.

Now, a high plus OT count points directly at our OTB4L system. There is an OTB4L manual if you haven't learned that system yet. It plays exactly like Sys 40 except it bets primarily on OTB4L instead of on Opposites. It goes OTR on BOTH straight and ZZ runs according to LC. Like Sinatra says, it is a good system to know.

Casinos use a card prep that favors OTB4L (runless) shoes because casinos know they win the most on runless shoes. This is because all public systems either bet opposites or repeats. Neither works in an OTB4L shoe. WE are usually the only winners in OTB4L shoes - much to the shock of the casino.

Now, to keep it simple, you COULD just play System 40 in OTB4L shoes. It usually does pretty good. But OTB4L does even better in OTB4L shoes. So its a very good system to know esp. when you realize that is what the casinos are striving for with their card preps and shuffles. Yes, Sys 40 usually beats new cards but OTB4L usually beats them even better.

So, what do we play in TB4L shoes? We play F2 because F2 beats TB4L shoes even better than TB4L. TB4L betting is about 400 years old. Yes, it gets on all straight and ZZ runs but not as quick as F2 gets on them. TB4L does great in long straight and ZZ runs but it loses to EVERYTHING else. TB4L loses every single bet in the TTs. It also loses to the 212s, the 313s and to all chop patterns. F2 kills those same patterns. TB4L has MANY losing patterns. F2 depending on how you play it has ONE losing pattern and it only loses to THAT pattern half the time - when the starting 2 in a row is on the wrong side. Then it loses to only a 212 (new rules) or a 2,3 (old rules). It beats EVERYTHING else. So F2 can beat a choppy shoe and choppy sections. TB4L CAN'T.

So a + OT count says play OTB4L.

A - OT count confirms F2.

The count with the highest number is the count we should go by. Sometimes its OR. Sometimes its OT.

I realize that all this sounds confusing to some right now. But it will all become second nature over time.

Edited October 19, 2010 by ECD

[punvit]

Thank you very much for your information.

[Fedda]

Ellis, I have a question about the 345-prog and the unit rate we get with this prog. Isn't the high unit rate a bit misleading? You said that you averaged 17 units in the 10 hollywood casino shoes recently played. Shouldn't we divide it by 3 because actually we could convert the 3,4,5-prog into a 1, 1,33, 1,66-prog? Of course it depends of how you see it but my starting point in a progression has always been 1 unit.

Thanks

/Fred

[ECD]

That is correct Fred. It is misleading from a comparison perspective. To compare to a 123 we would have to make our unit 3 and call our prog a 1, 1 1/3, 1 2/3 prog. That gets a little ridiculous and misses my point. My point is that you are best off to favor the bet that you win the most.

I used to say that if you are mostly losing your first bet make it a 1 as in a 123 prog. That puts the emphasis on your second bet rather than your first. Your second bet is TWICE your first.

But if you are usually winning your first bet put the emphasis on your first bet and make it 2 as in a 234 prog.

But back in those early days we were trying to make the PROG win the shoe so all our emphasis was on the prog. We were trying to do what everyone else is STILL trying to do - but failing. All other Bac forums are duplicating my early errors. For instance Rinaldo told me the system he bought had him making 40 unit and even 80 unit bets. I realized a long time ago that you can't "BUY" the game. With such progs, its just a question of time before you hit the wrong shoe and lose the farm.

Today, I realize that you must PUT the emphasis on the bet placement system. Get that right and the prog will take care of itself. You can even flat bet.

OK we are learning more and more about System selection. The better you select your system, the more often you win the FIRST bet of your prog. Therefore it makes good sense NOW to front load your prog. Put the emphasis on the first bet. This GREATLY reduces your risk when you measure your prog in terms of first bets:

In a 123 prog, your third bet is 3 times your first bet. AND, you are going to end up having to go even higher.

In a 345 prog. your third bet is only 1 2/3 times your first bet. And we never had to go higher.

Recognize that a 123 prog has a HIGHER third bet that a 345 prog in terms of your first bet. And if you lose your third bet, you are 6 first bets down in 3 plays.

But in a 345 prog when you lose the whole thing you are down only 4 first bets. That is why you need go no higher than 5.

But when you lose a 123 you need to win 6 extra first bets just to break even. That is highly unlikely and that is why you find yourself going to 4 and 5 and even 6 and 7 bets. That usually isn't necessary with the 345 prog.

On top of all that is with a 345 or even a 456 you can play higher stakes tables. We essentially played a $15 table with $5 units. A 345 lets you play $25 tables with $10 units.

And a 456 lets you play $100 tables with $25 units.

So, see it makes good sense to call it a 345 prog rather that a 1,1 1/3, 1 2/3 prog. We aren't trying to hoodwink anybody. We are trying to get your Player Advantage as high as possible. We are trying to win the most while betting the least.

In dollars, we won far more than the $25 and the $100 players won. Its all just common sense. If you are winning your first bet, BET the darn thing. Let the others do whatever they want. As long as they play the way they play, we will always have Baccarat. Pay them no mind.

But yes, you are right. Had I looked at my 3 bets as a single unit, and had I not screwed up those 2 shoes, I would have averaged 7 units a shoe W/O ever betting more than one and two thirds units. Does that sound more realistic?

Edited October 19, 2010 by ECD

[Fedda]

Yeah you're right, good explanation, just what I needed. I am a conservative player as well and hates when the prog leaves me with a bet worth 8 times my first bet! That's what I felt before betting with a 1up2down prog, it's not comfortable enough for me, and you're sitting there almost waiting for the big drawdown (5-6 losing bets). Of course I also want to advance and bet with higher unit size and the 345, maybe even 456 looks good to achieve my goal.

Had I looked at my 3 bets as a single unit, and had I not screwed up those 2 shoes, I would have averaged 7 units a shoe W/O ever betting more than one and two thirds units. Does that sound more realistic?

Didn't see it in that way, but you're so right!

Thanks

Edited October 19, 2010 by Fedda

[muling427]

What is the difference between using 1"s,2's and 3's as culprit and playing RD1, F2 and F3 ?

[ECD]

Muling, In Advanced 40:

System 40 is your chop system and is used for tables/shoes favoring Opposites (a + OR count) because 40 primarily bets Opposites.

Forget F3 because Advanced 40 doesn't need it with the new F2 rule change.

F2 is your primary streak system when the OR count favors minus. F2 primarily bets Repeats.

RD1 is a special purpose streak system when you have primarily straight runs following straight runs.

Concentrate on those 3 first. Note that in the 11 Hollywood shoes we ONLY played those 3 and mostly only 40 and F2.

It is true that 40 with 2s culprit beats streak but not as well as F2.

40 with 2's culprit is essentially TB4L. I recently mentioned that while TB4l beats both straight and ZZ runs, it loses to ALL chop sections and loses every bet to the TTs and has many losing patterns.

F2 gets on straight and ZZ runs even faster and has only one losing pattern , 212 but only when the starting 2 is on the wrong side.

40 is the best chop system in the world and F2 is the best streak system in the world. That is why we chose those two for Advanced System 40.

Edited October 20, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

I know we have several new members. We also have old members who are still just as green as the new members.

On this forum there is no such thing as a dumb question. This is YOUR forum. Don't be afraid to ask questions.

Sys 40 is the first and the hardest step. F2 and RD1 are much easier. Then all you need to know is how to know which to play in the shoe at hand.

Then, once you know how to bet and how to manage your cash, you are on your way. Yes, its a little confusing when you start but this is not rocket science. There are several tasks but they are ALL very simple.

[muling427]

Thank you Ellis. You say to start betting at the second hand if the table qualifies. You certainly use the previous shoe or shoes for this purpose.

I don't understand how the dealer can influence the order of cards by shuffling and so biase the game .

Bernard

[ECD]

Right, you can start at the 2nd hand betting opposite for system 40 or repeat for F2 but only if you have already identified the TABLE as choppy or streaky. For instance new cards are usually choppy or the prior shoes may have been choppy at that table.

The dealer really has nothing to do with it. The fact is you CANNOT randomize cards in 2 or 3 shuffles. Not even close. 8 decks would take hundreds of shuffles. So we can USUALLY expect the red deck to continue doing whatever its been doing and the same for the blue. Often they are both about the same. After tens of thousands of casino shoes I know this to be true. You will USUALLY be right but when you are proven wrong switch to the right system ASAP. If you check the 11 Hollywood shoes you'll see that we were usually right right off the bat but we quickly adjusted when we were not right.

The less sure you are the more time you give yourself and vice versa. IF you MUST bet, you can always flat bet at the beginning.

When we played, to get the shoe started Keith and I would bet opposite each other so we broke even. Or, we let another player start the shoe. The MAIN concern is don't take any big risks until you know what's going on.

There are other tricks to game starts that we will teach you as we go like OTB4L, net betting, 0 and 00 starts, etc. but note that we did not have to use any of those.

[MVSeahog]

Forget F3 because Advanced 40 doesn't need it with the new F2 rule change.

For that I am eternally grateful. I just could never get myself convinced to run F3 with any conviction.

I would do it when everything was pointing to it, but I was never all that thrilled with actually playing with F3.

MVS (OK, dodged that bullet for now!)

[muling427]

What is blue and red deck ?

[jerryczy]

Usually casino have two color of cards on the back.one is red color, the other is blue.

What is blue and red deck ?

[victorino402]

Hello,

Where can I find the Advanced System 40 Manual? Thank you.

[MVSeahog]

Hello,

Where can I find the Advanced System 40 Manual? Thank you.

Well, you're in the right area.

Take a look at message number 1 and start reading from there.

Take notes!

When you get back to this message, ask whatever questions you might have that didn't get answered in the reading session!

All of the system plays here do require a good background of baccarat knowledge and our own shorthand for various system names and plays. I believe if you'll read through the material, a lot of your questions will be answered along the way.

Do not rush through these pages. Take your time, learn the material, win. It's a good process!

We'll all be here for the rest of the questions when they come up!

MVS (I read everything)

[victorino402]

Messages 1, 2, and 3 appear to be missing. Plus Keith told me there was a manual to study along with 30 day support. What's up with that?

[punvit]

Hi Ellis, please give advises on questions below;

Based on $5,000 bankroll. Strictly playing with System 40 A (new F2 rules and RD1) with good MM. Between flat, 123, 234, 345 prog., which one should be used in order to get the highest win percentage yield per session?

What is the unit bet size to apply?

And what is the winning target and losing target per session?

Thank you.

Edited October 21, 2010 by punvit

[muling427]

Messages 1, 2, and 3 appear to be missing. Plus Keith told me there was a manual to study along with 30 day support. What's up with that?

go to System 40 manual thread to download it

[ECD]

Right, to download the System 40 Manual, on the front page of BTC, hit Forum at the top. Then hit Baccarat, then System 40, Then System 40 Manual. then hit the blue down load link.

BTW, I just noticed that the signs of the OR count col. on the sample score card on page 11 have not been fixed yet.

They came out all minus signs. An opposite is +1 and a repeat is (minus) - 1.

We will shortly have a similar manual for System 40 Advanced.

Edited October 21, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

Hi Ellis, please give advises on questions below;

Based on $5,000 bankroll. Strictly playing with System 40 A (new F2 rules and RD1) with good MM. Between flat, 123, 234, 345 prog., which one should be used in order to get the highest win percentage yield per session?

What is the unit bet size to apply?

And what is the winning target and losing target per session?

Thank you.

Punvit, first, a $5000 bankroll is huge and more than ample for $100 units but Bankroll size is not the best measurement to go by. It is best to only go to $100 units on winnings, not out of pocket.

We are not there to show off or to be one of the guys. We are strictly there to make money. Look at it as a job.

First get your play down smoothe and mistake free. I'm talking CASINO play here, not home practice. At home you have do-overs. In the casino you don't.

A tip to help you play mistake free is always do everything in the same exact order.

1. Fill in your score from the prior play.

2. Enter your bet on your card properly and check that it is right..

3. Place your bet ON THE RIGHT SIDE

4. BEFORE YOU TAKE YOUR HAND OFF YOUR BET, CHECK THE AMOUNT AND YOUR BET PLACEMENT.

Now, you are going to have easy shoes and tough shoes, easy sessions and tough sessions. Some sessions the shoes are consistently choppy (or streaky) while other sessions are not so consistent

Some days the red and blue shoes are doing the same thing and some sessions they are not.

Your unit color should be determined FIRST by the ease of the session and SECOND by bank roll.

NEVER raise the stakes because you are doing poorly! ONLY raise the stakes when you are doing well.

If the table is not treating you right LEAVE.

DON'T "chase" your bets. That is the sign of an amateur.

DON'T let the other players influence you. THEY LOSE.

When all is going wrong, leave, BUT

When all is going right, EXPLOIT the situation.

Baccarat is not so much about how you play your good shoes. It's a whole lot more about how you play your bad shoes.

NEVER decide your system or your stakes or your prog before you get to the casino - that is pure amateur.

Let the conditions make that decision.

OK, until you know the conditions you have no business making anything but table min bets IF YOU BET AT ALL.

NOW, the limited 345 is a great prog but ONLY if you are usually winning your first bet. If you are usually losing your first bet you have no business making it more than 1 unit. You also need to check your system selection. We always want the system that wins the most first bets. I call the 345 "limited" because your highest bet is limited to 5 and you can not have the worst thing that can happen in Baccarat - a runaway prog.

Here is an example of how to look at this. Lets compare a 123456 to a 345345 in a rough situation:

OK, lets say you win 6 bets in a row and then lose 6 bets in a row:

With the 123456 you are DOWN 15 first bets.

With the 345345 you are down TWO first bets!

Let's say you win the 7th bet.

With the 123456(7) you are STILL down EIGHT first bets. You need to win EIGHT bets to get even.

With the 345345(3) you are only down ONE first bet. You need to win ONE bet to get even.

So, should you always play the 345? Only when you are solidly winning the majority of your first bets - only when you are playing the RIGHT system.

Everybody else looks at the object of Baccarat as winning your prog. WRONG!

Look at the object of Baccarat as winning your first bets. THAT is what will get you on the best system the quickest.

U1D2 M2 is a great prog but it CAN get you into trouble and it can have runaway progs.

345 might lose now and then but it can't lose much.

Winning targets are NOT a good idea. They tend to make you overplay bad shoes and underplay good shoes.

The same Baccarat shoe has NEVER been dealt twice. EVERY shoe is a brand new experience. Forget targets! Go by what is reasonable for the shoe you are playing right now.

IF you are at +20 at play 20, that's one thing. Go for it - up to a point.

IF you are at 0 at play 20, that is an entirely different story.

ALWAYS keep your wits about you.

NEVER get angry no matter what. Leave instead! You can't always beat them.

Sometimes they are highly vulnerable.

But sometimes they are not!

Know the difference.

[ECD]

What is blue and red deck ?

Good answer JC. Muling, when you are playing against a shuffle machine, While you are playing the red shoe, the blue shoe is in the machine being shuffled and vice versa. Usually both colors play about the same because they were both shuffled the same length of time according to the machine setting. But some clever casinos set the machine differently for each color so that you get streak with one color and chop with the other. It is always good to note if the two colors are playing about the same or not. Always try to have a good idea of what each color is doing.