S40A Manual Q&A

[ECD]

Could we get a detailed example of 40N play. Maybe a score card with decisions and how you handle the two progressions

after each hand to determine the bets to be made.

40N is a strong net bet system. When choosing the systems for S40A I was looking for the strongest system to play when we have a "Neutral" OR count. This is when the OR count is not giving us a a strong + or a strong - direction. The shoe is neither choppy nor streaky. While you would think this would be our worst situation, we can turn it into a very strong situation - often our strongest situation.

I selected OTB4L for our Neutral system only because it is simpler, not because it is always best.

I invented Net betting many years ago and have always been a strong proponent of it because of its many advantages. The formost advantage is that net betting keeps your ABS (average bet size) MUCH lower than SS (Single Side) betting.

I wrote a good article on net betting in this forum. You should review it if you are interested in 40N.

The free systems are net bet systems - Bank vs Player. But you can net bet ANY system against its opposite system.

With S40N we are essentially betting Opposites vs Repeats but you usually can't keep doing that forever because eventually you will run into a long straight or ZZ run. What happens is one prog will win every play but the other prog will lose every play and continue to go up.

But another big advantage of net betting is that you can afford a longer prog.

In fact Aegis clearly demonstrated simply net betting Opposites vs Repeats betting U1D1 M2 continuous (continuing your progs from shoe to shoe) that you ALWAYS eventually win. This is quite contrary to that site that bets you $30,000 to your $3000 that no sytem can beat a random generator. We clearly demonstrated that S40N (simply net betting O vs R U1D1 M2 not only wins but does so at about a 30% Player Advantage (P.A.) (Money won divided by money bet) (ROI). AND 40N does this while staying safely within the min max confines of most Baccarat tables.

Now you would think that this would be Earth Shattering Baccarat news. And it is. Yes it wins the bet but NO you can't play this way. Your draw downs along the way are unaffordable in live play.

So did we ever collect on the bet??? No, because I don't think its in our best interests to broadcast this phenomenon to the whole Baccarat world.

We also tested playing U1D2 M2. That played to about a 6% P.A. You still win and your draw downs are much less but still way too high for OUR pocketbooks.

So is the whole idea out the window? NO, we merely have to put practical constraints on it to protect us from the draw downs. Hence 40N and also ADN. ( bet Across after a repeat and bet Down after an opposite) See, when one prog bets this way the other prog automatically stays on the opposite side. Try it and you will soon see.

We tested in lots of 1000 actual casino shoes. I think there is a good chance that ADN would actually test better. I'm SURE ADN would ALSO win the bet.

But before I go further let me post thus far because I'm on a public computer.

[Baccarat A]

Ellis,

So sorry to hear about your son. Out living a child is every parents' worst nightmare. Both of you are in my prayers. It is a very difficult time but I hope that you can find some comfort in your faith.

[aegis21]

I think Keith will have this webininar program debugged by the time I get back.

I'm at a Hospice House in Mountain Home Arkansas on vigil, waiting for my 43 year old son, the last of my family, to die. The hospital removed him from life support two days ago according to his wishes. I'll be here anywhere from hours to days.

They happen to have a computer here so maybe I can answer some of your questions. That will help keep my mind off things. Outliving your whole family is the worst thing that can ever happen to you.

Good Morning Uncle Ellis,

Our prayers are with you and your son. You will always be part of our family.

With Love and sadness

Linda & John

[ECD]

I can't edit on this computer so let me go back and expand on someting important I said:

"But another big advantage of net betting is that you can afford a longer prog."

Recognize that the longer your prog is the more shoes you will win. But unfortunately the more you risk. That is how the scammers get you. They have you betting a ridiculously long prog so that your win rate is very high. What they DON'T tell you is that when you finally lose, you lose more in one fatal shoe than all the shoes you won put together. By then the scammer is long gone.

We have found that in SS systems you do not want to make your prog more than 3 bets at a time. That is the drawback of SS systems and also the advantage of Net systems.

For instance, suppose you are playing an SS system and you lose a 1234. You are ten units down! With a FIVE bet due. Lots of luck on that!

But if you hit the exact same pattern net betting, while one prog is losing its 1234, the other prog is winning at least 2121.

So instead of losing 10 units, you are only down a max of 4 units with only a 3 bet due. A WHOLE lot less risk with a far better chance of recovering. That is the REAL advantage of net betting. But there are MANY others. Like far less commission.

OK, the house mgr here seems to think this is his computer so let me let him use it for a while.

[ECD]

Getting back to the original question, 40N: OK, starting at play 2 your black prog bets repeats (under the last circle) and your red prog bets opposites (opposite the last circle). It's best to color code your progs on your first net bet attempt.

U1D2 M2 is a good prog to use and was originally designed for net betting. While we think of U1D2 M2 as aggressive, it is much safer net betting that prog. So you can follow your red prog, whichever side it happens to be on at any given time, as it plays out its U1D2 M2 prog. It crosses sides whenever necessary to stay on Opposites always maintaining U1D2 M2 integrity. Your Black prog does the same thing except it always bet repeats and is therefore ALways opposite your red prog.

So you always end up with a red entry and a black entry at each play line. You simply subtract the lower entry from the higher entry and table bet only the difference on the side that has the higher entry.

For instance at play 5 you might have a red 3 on P and a black 1 on B. So your table bet would be 2 units on P.

OK, with S40 we always bet OTR under the LC event. With 40N we swap progs under the LC event. We maintain our color code integrity with red on opposite and black on repeat but we simply switch the two entry numbers. This gives the higher number the better chance of winning. If we lose that table bet we switch right back just as we would if S40 lost its OTR bet. So one prog is playing S40 and the other prog is playing the exact opposite of S40. OK. I'll post right here because I've got to go into a meeting.

[ECD]

Hey, you sharpies make sure I don't make any mistakes here because I'm not exactly in my right mind right now.

[aldny]

Hey, you sharpies make sure I don't make any mistakes here because I'm not exactly in my right mind right now.

Uncle Ellis you're making a lot of mistakes ... take it easy big guy have a nap.

[Norm A]

Ellis

My thoughts are with, I know what you are going through as you know my situation as well.

NormA

[ECD]

Ellis,

Shirley and I are thinking of you and your son and saying a prayer for you.

God bless.

PJ

[Sir Donald]

Ellis, our thoughts and prayers are with you and your son.

Don

[res]

Ellis:

My thoughts are with you and your family, everything else in life will wait during these times..

RES/Ron

[Audionut]

Ellis, of course you have my deepest sympathy for what your going through with your family. I wish nothing but the best for you and yours....

Doug

[junketman]

Understand the first part where we run two progressions betting the difference. Not clear on the part where

we swap progs under the LC event.

Could explain futher maybe giving an example.

[Baccarat A]

Using the S40A system, how should the following shoe be played?

B1414121213

B22223111231

P241113112112

B235

Edited December 29, 2010 by Baccarat A

[ECD]

Using the S40A system, how should the following shoe be played?

B1414121213

B22223111231

P241113112112

B235

Hi Bac A. The early 4 would put your LC at 3. But when we see such a strong sided start (Player) we immediately think in terms of F2 or F3. Since 3s are LC that decides the issue. This is an F3 shoe.

The rules for F3 are to stay on the side of the most recent 3. But if we switch sides under a 3 and lose that first bet, we switch right back.

It is likely the prior shoe was also F2/F3.

But if you play F3 from the beginning U1D2 M2, you'll see that you hit +20 at play 28. Very early!

You will soon learn to QUIT at +20 playing U1D2 M2 because that is about all U1D2 M2 can muster. However if you got a little foolish and continued (perhaps you have been doing very well) you'll see that you finish the shoe at +22. But your increased commission will eat up most of the extra 2 units.

With that prog, its best to quit at +20, proven again and again. If you can't get to 20, quit when you've hit your highest score for the third time.

BTW, since you got to +20 strictly on Player, your commission at that quitting point was ZERO! Nice game! Should have taken you about 20 minutes. Your highest bet was a single 4. You made a unit a minute. Ain't nobody else

in the Baccarat world that could do that W/O betting more than 4 units.

Your Player Advantage was 34%. This compares to the 1/2% card counters try to achieve but never do. They should be making a movie about US, not those idiots.

[ECD]

BTW, I think Keith posted some F3 shoes he just played at Hollywood. It's a funny thing about F3. When a casino gets on that kick the whole casino can stay F3 favorable for days. F3 is also a good "test the water" system. But don't make the mistake of thinking F3 ALWAYS plays that well. Casinos like to present a moving target. BEWARE!

I know this system selection stuff seems complex at first. But hang in there. It all becomes second nature after a while.

Edited December 29, 2010 by ECD

[res]

I think I understand most of S40A, so far. But I am uncertain about how to start a shoe / game. Assume that I have no history of the table or casino and that I don't know what card prep was used.

So if I sit down at a table to play, how do I start? I did find one post discussing the subject, but I think it deserves more coverage.

Also, Can you start anywhere in the shoe?

Thanks,

RES

[ECD]

I think I understand most of S40A, so far. But I am uncertain about how to start a shoe / game. Assume that I have no history of the table or casino and that I don't know what card prep was used.

So if I sit down at a table to play, how do I start? I did find one post discussing the subject, but I think it deserves more coverage.Also, Can you start anywhere in the shoe?

Thanks,

RES

When I first start out for the day or after a break, I always like to start mid shoe so that I have half a tote board history to study at my leisure unhampered by the heat of the game. This tactic almost always gets me off to a strong start. It's a good idea to keep track of about where the game will end so you don't get caught in the middle of a prog. Also, unless I see an exceptionally good tote board condition, I usually start betting only 2Hi until I've got some table history to go by.

I NEVER bet based solely on luck. That is foolish. I always have a solid historical reason for my bets. If I can't clearly see which system is best, I don't play. I end up picking the right system about 90% of the time. What's the hurry? You are betting hard earned money! The idea is to start out on the right foot. There is no such thing of having nothing to do by. If you don't have anything to go by, wait until you do.

[junketman]

Getting back to the original question, 40N: OK, starting at play 2 your black prog bets repeats (under the last circle) and your red prog bets opposites (opposite the last circle). It's best to color code your progs on your first net bet attempt.

U1D2 M2 is a good prog to use and was originally designed for net betting. While we think of U1D2 M2 as aggressive, it is much safer net betting that prog. So you can follow your red prog, whichever side it happens to be on at any given time, as it plays out its U1D2 M2 prog. It crosses sides whenever necessary to stay on Opposites always maintaining U1D2 M2 integrity. Your Black prog does the same thing except it always bet repeats and is therefore ALways opposite your red prog.

So you always end up with a red entry and a black entry at each play line. You simply subtract the lower entry from the higher entry and table bet only the difference on the side that has the higher entry.

For instance at play 5 you might have a red 3 on P and a black 1 on B. So your table bet would be 2 units on P.

OK, with S40 we always bet OTR under the LC event. With 40N we swap progs under the LC event. We maintain our color code integrity with red on opposite and black on repeat but we simply switch the two entry numbers. This gives the higher number the better chance of winning. If we lose that table bet we switch right back just as we would if S40 lost its OTR bet. So one prog is playing S40 and the other prog is playing the exact opposite of S40. OK. I'll post right here because I've got to go into a meeting.

Ellis: Not sure if you where done explaining 40N. Anyway could you give an example.

[uneek]

Can anyone tell me how to do the O/R count?> thanks

tom

[wolfat]

Can anyone tell me how to do the O/R count?> thanks

tom

Hi Tom, it's like the CS count.

OR is opposite vs repeat

+1 after an opposite

-1 after a repeat

ciao

[res]

Hi Everyone, and Happy New Year!

I have a question about the SAP chart. If it has been answered I apologize, I did look for an answer.

We count 4s as 8X. So do we not count 5, 6, or more? In other words, does the 4s column include runs of 4+?

I think I may have been looking at this wrong, but not sure.

Thanks

I think I found the answer Back on the 4s thread, Post #53:

Again, it is NOT 4 or mores we are recording under the 4s heading. It is confirmed 4s. Remember, I said you can't confirm the length os an event until it is ended by an opposite. Then you go back and retroactively fill in your SAP chart. A 5 or 6 in a row is not a 4.

Edited January 1, 2011 by res

[res]

Could someone try this shoe?

It was my first practice shoe, and it ate my lunch. After trying about 3 shoes I went back and studied some more. I tried this again this morning and I did a little better. I probably would have quit about hand 50, or a little before. My progression was 3,4,5

I started with S40 and switched to F2 at hand 23, starting on the P side. I tried OTB4L at hand 42 when I saw that F2 wasn’t working, and that got me back to even.

B1111232144

P133422131

P1231472

B2223

[ECD]

Could someone try this shoe?

It was my first practice shoe, and it ate my lunch. After trying about 3 shoes I went back and studied some more. I tried this again this morning and I did a little better. I probably would have quit about hand 50, or a little before. My progression was 3,4,5

I started with S40 and switched to F2 at hand 23, starting on the P side. I tried OTB4L at hand 42 when I saw that F2 wasn’t working, and that got me back to even.

B1111232144

P133422131

P1231472

B2223

Well Res, you'll be happy to know that I think you did rather well with this extremely tough shoe. It turned out to be an excellent decision to start S40 345. With 4s LC, this moved you right up to +15 at play 13. Then you lose your 345 bringing you down to +3 at play 16.

So now its decision time:

Your first decision should have been to back off the 345 and go to 123 because in the last 5 progs you won the 3 once and lost it 4 times - not good!

To make matters worse, you have NO LC because 2s, 3s and 4s are dead tied for LC. That rules out the continuation of S40.

Making matters worse still, your strong + count has evaporated to +1 and is in a downward trend. So your decision to go to F2 was a good decision based on what we have studied recently. Playing a simple 1234 U1D2 prog with no M2 you work your way back up to +10 at play 56 where you likely would have quit. IF you remembered the new F2 rule that says if you lose the first bet on the new side, switch right back. Your shoe shows the value of that new rule.

Or you might have decided to stay on the run until you lost which would have stopped you to +11 at play 59. BTW, had you kept M2 you might have done a little better.

But this shoe is also a good lesson as to why you should never drop a system from your arsenal.

OK, decision time was at play16. You look back and you might notice that except for play12, the whole shoe thus far is runs following runs. So, if you think back and ask yourself what is the best system for runs following runs??? Right, it is RD1.

Had you started RD1 U1D2 M2 right at play 17, you would have breezed through the rest of the shoe finishing at +33 with a single highest bet of 5. I bet you didn't think of that. Hey, that's about all RD1 is good for but its definitely your best system for those rare runs following runs shoes. And except for 2 plays, your shoe nicely stayed runs following runs for the rest of the shoe. While your shoe was very elusive there is almost always a BEST system for every shoe. Your shoe was screaming RD1.

Edited January 2, 2011 by ECD

[ECD]

BTW, another way of describing runs following runs is "a lack of single 1's". The norm for single 1's is 9. But this shoe had only ONE single 1 thus far at decision time at play 16. And the shoe STAYED with that trend with only 3 single 1's the entire shoe. The trick was to look at single 1's separately from total 1's.

EVERY shoe is low in SOMETHING.

A lack of 1's and/ or 2s = F2

A lack of single 1's = RD1

A lack of 3s = S40 with 3s culprit

A lack of 4s = S40 4s culprit

Meanwhile:

High 1's = S40

High 1s and 2s = S40

High 2s with low 1s = OTB4L

High 3s with low 4+s = OTB4L

Long runs both straight and or ZZ = F2

Low runs straight or ZZ = OTB4L

Make a copy of these to display at your work station and make a cheat sheet for playing the casino.

You will never get better Baccarat advice.